Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Years ago my old broker put me into Tullow I think at £2- £3 ish and he told me to chuck the dealing note in the drawer and forget about it, I did until he called me one day and recommended selling as the shares at over £17 , I will have to check, anyway I was well pleased and had never looked at Tullow again until your post today, I was surprised at today's SP,
Another time he recommended KAZ under £2 just after a collapse and flooding at the mine which had stopped production, some brokers were saying that Kaz was finished and the SP did fall further which worried me , but my old broker told me not to worry as he had a mate who was invested in a company who supplied heavy plant to Kaz and he was confident that production would be back up and running far more quickly than was thought as the situation at the mine looked far worse than it actually was, my old broker was right and so that dealing note stayed in the drawer, although at times KAZ did fluctuate up and down about 4 times the movement of the ftse 100 they gained in value until my old broker told me to sell at around £18.
Another top tip from him was when bird flu hit Asia and Stan.l collapsed to £3 ish, my broker old me to fill my boots, like he was, time moved on the bird flu epidemic ended and Stan.l continued to rise and pay good dividends until I was recommend to sell at £21.
My old broker friend (now retired officially)put me into Cey more years ago than I care to remember, but we still go for a pint or two and he still rates Centamin and thinks they are just gong through a bad patch,but that things will get better!
So I will be leaving the dealing note in the the drawer for now and see what happens, no point in rushing things, certainly not where Centamin is concerned!

Pound falls lower on no-deal Brexit prospect
The pound has continued to fall on currency markets as the government insists that the UK is prepared to leave the EU without a deal.

Sterling hit a fresh two-year low of $1.2120 against the dollar on Tuesday, before recovering some ground.

The currency also slid against the euro, falling to €1.0881 at one point.

The fall in the value of the pound means UK tourists heading abroad could face a "horrendous summer", according to one currency expert.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49162356
Seema Shah, senior global investment strategist at Principal Global Investors, said: "If it looks like this juggernaut cannot be stopped, we do expect sterling to keep falling."

She said that the pound could drop as low as $1.18 against the dollar, but added: "There is a widespread view that a no-deal Brexit will be stopped."

The former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Lord Jim O'Neill, told the BBC's World at One programme that in addition to the risks of a no-deal Brexit, the markets were also "looking at a government that might be leaning on an independent central bank, possibly including the choice of its new governor" and the policy plans that suggest the government is going to increase spending.

The combination of these factors is "essentially pointing one way for the pound", Lord O'Neill said.

However, he added that he thought the pound looked "very cheap", and if there was a Brexit deal, then sterling could recover "very sharply".

Sotolo,

Brave man! I am still watching although very tempted. Your calls are usually pretty good so that gives me some more confidence on FRES.
Lets see what tomorrow brings, both for CEY and FRES and then I will re-evaluate.

Good Luck,
Prof

Hi Sotolo!
I also fear the 1/4% $ rate cut tomorrow may be a case of "sell the news" for gold. There's a bit too much exuberance around PMs. The medium term outlook for Sukhari could also end up disappointing the market. All in all, for me, there's more immediate downside than upside, so I've sold out again, looking for a marginal gain on a quickish repurchase.
That said, IMO the medium term outlook for gold / gold miners is outstanding. Which would you rather own: a bond with a negative interest rate or gold? And the amount of bonds that yield less than nothing (but yet which still carry substantial if under-appreciated risk) is only going up and up.

I did at 655, a bit after 2pm, but only £7000 in the sipp , probably bonkers, I agree often shares continue to fall on bad news, and Mizolgit did drive me off this board saying whatever I did was the opposite of right (tho my hunk of cey at 79p hasn’t been bad so far) , but with Fres the dividend cut was more apalling than anything else and ultimately I think it is profit that counts. not divi that matters Whatever I have far far too high a proportion of my portfolio in PM miners, probably even more bonkers and Mizolgit would whip me, and the timing .... I fear a pull back on the ¼ not ½ cut in rates tomorrow. But finally as you say Prof gold seems to what to rise. And the thing bout shares is every reaction is different.

Razor,

Thanks for the comprehensive response. Good luck to you too for tomorrow.

Best wishes,
Prof

Elprofessor...

No I am slightly under water with Tullow Oil. My point was whoever is chucking £12m about is either nuts or has some pretty sound info.
I don’t remember what company I was watching a month or two ago but as I was considering a buy as the share price was down 16 or 18% out of the blue they fell another 8% buying on poor results is risky.

Last December ASOS gave a profit warning at 7am the ass fell out of the stock when the market opened then Boohoo dropped as well (only because they are a similar company). Fast thinking on boo’s behalf they issued a statement at around 10am saying they were meeting their expectations.
I bought a load of them and made a good profit.. market over reaction to nothing.

As far as fres is concerned I don’t know enough about them to buy, but that is only my lack of knowledge, nothing to do with the company.

Good luck tomorrow with the numbers

Razor,

Like you I am watching FRES They seem to be getting pretty much the same magnitude of pounding CEY got with the end of year announcement and the disappointing prod guidance, back in Feb. I would be tempted to dip a toe in FRES given the extent of today's fall but am held back by the memory of how CEY continued to drift down for many weeks after that (albeit with a falling gold price). Are you tempted?

Best wishes,
Prof

Push Me,

Good spot. There are a number of key elements that seem to be coming together. The forward production guidance for the next few years will be very important - I can't help but think they will be very conservative in making this call given last year's problems; I do agree however that Gold price is key and that the Fed numbers will influence this. Having said that at the moment gold seems to shrug of any news that you would have thought would drive it down.

Best wishes,
Prof

...if this 10m buy is a smartass investment someone has the inside track.

At the least this is a gutsy play..

I’m watching Fresnillo who announced their half year numbers and are have just formed a new 52 wk low.

I don’t expect anything negative with Centamin tomorrow.
I hope all goes well at 7am

Prof on another note the gold price is more important to profit than marginal differences in expectation of future production. So I think the fed meeting may outweigh the company statement, unless we get something unexpected form Centamin. ...to the good side

Prof, gold only £4.50 short of its sterling all time high, less than a third of a percent.

I hope some of these gold products can eventually succeed. Anything that makes owning gold more accessible to the masses is a positive in my view.

Other than Kinesis, NONE of the +60 ‘gold’ coins on the market solve the law of money, Gresham’s Law.
Unless I am incentivised to use my gold for spending /sending etc, why would I sell / use my more valuable gold when I could simply use fiat?

This may be good for gold
Following on from the recent announcement regarding opening up minting for US citizens, Kinesis are really excited to announce our partnership with Rejuvenan Global Health.

Rejuvenan is a digital wellness and health company that focuses on delivering an integrated and holistic approach to healthcare to its clients. Unlike other wellness/health companies, Rejuvenan’s data-driven platform uses AI to diagnose and provide clients with specific behavioural modification strategies for optimal health outcomes.

Given that over $30 billion in venture dollars have been invested in digital health since 2011, and $8.1B in digital health funding last year alone, this market has seen significant recent expansion. Given the integrations of tech into daily life, it's no surprise that customers are flocking to digital solutions for monitoring and maintaining their health.

Through powering a Rejuvenan rewards currency based on the Kinesis platform, Rejuvenan will be able to leverage Kinesis’s established operational infrastructure to provide their multitude of clients with a rewards system that incentivises healthy lifestyles. This in turn opens doors for Kinesis within the $3.5 trillion healthcare market.

AHEAD OF TOMORROW.

On the HL website it looks like a buy of over 10 millions shares at 123.4 went through an hour or so ago.

For my part I expect tomorrow to be good although I am not so sure that I would bet £12M on it.

Best wishes,
Prof

Market cap is in GBP while sales are in dollars so it's win/win

Share price must go up to keep dollar value the same while profits which are in dollars become worth more in GBP

Fresnillo (FRES)
Sell: 690.60p | Buy: 693.00p | down102.91p (12.95%)

Thanks, I stand corrected. Thank you.

GLA for tomorrow.

Jimbo Convert what into pounds? If you look at Centamin's web site you will see that the company works in US dollars as far as accounting and reporting is concerned but I am sure they work in multiple currencies on a daily basis including Egyptian given salaries and local transactions.
The gold they sell is sold in US Dollars but gold being an asset can and is also valued in Pounds I would suggest as a worth for those of us who invest but suggest Pounds as a currency that Centamin need will be quite small compared with US Dollars.
Centamin will have many currency accounts but suggest their largest will be a US Dollar account so that they can buy and sell with no currency risks.

Trump will luv a weak GDP, means he can foist any old trade deal onto Boris!

but net income is down from $214m to $74m!
Hadn't realised the net income was down quite so much.
Lets hope there is some considerable improvements announced very soon!

I've always assumed a weak GBP is good for us against the dollar as the gold is shipped to North America for processing and presumably converted in to dollars over there. Is that then converted to GBP hence the benefit of a weak sterling?

Hi Cowichan!
I signed up for Glint when it was launched here. I finally received a card several months later, plus reams of idiotic marketing literature. Card proved unusable. No customer service at all. Finally, I scissored the card.
IMO. the company behind Glint is an an absolute shambles, a total no-hoper.

Interestingly cey peaked in jan 2017, somewhere around 175p, when dollar/sterling fell to 1.23, sterling’s rebound in the next two years, on hope of a soft Brexit agreement, accounted for around 13p of cey’s fall, but now sterling is back down again we can compare the cey share price then and now directly; cey is around 30% lower than Jan 2017, but net income is down from $214m to $74m, so far bigger fall; happily our shares are not down two thirds as last year’s net income was considered an aberration, let’s hope so. As said with current info 120p seemed a fair value a couple of weeks ago, but with the latest fall in the pound and current gold price now a few per cent higher imho. Of course we have the delayed forward statement, hopefully tomorrow, but I do not hold out a lot of hope in that, tho hope I am wrong and it boosts us, and the Fed cut which will probably be a quarter % , with slightly gentler forward guidance, resulting in a knee jerk drop in gold, but then a rise on consideration, hoping so, so we can continue our march back to the 160’s and hopefully beyond.

European stocks gain on monetary policy optimism

While the falling pound benefited on Tuesday the internationally oriented companies listed in London, as it makes their exports more competitive, stocks in the Eurozone advanced against the backdrop of optimism regarding bilateral talks between China and the United States and the Bank of Japan's vow to maintain stimulus in the fight to bring inflation back up. Precious metals were slightly lower before the opening bell on European equity exchanges.

The earnings season reached its peak with Bayer and Lufthansa having issued quarterly reports. Sony, Merck and Co. Mastercard and Apple are some of the major names on deck for today. Investors are also waiting for inflation data from Germany, the European Union and the US as the most important updates before the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

The euro slipped 0.09% at 7:59 am CET to $1.11345 but it rallied 0.6% to £0.91774. Sterling tumbled 0.7% to $1.21326. Gold was 0.26% in the red at $1,423.13 per ounce. The UK's FTSE 100 stock index moved 0.51% higher. The DAX was 0.06% in the green in Frankfurt compared to the gain of 0.07% in the CAC 40. The Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.08%.

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