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When will they ever learn all of these investors who invest in mining companies and don't have a clue, do me a favour what is the panic, over sold is an understatement.
I see mention of less ounces in 3rd qtr than 2nd qtr I don't read anything about making a loss in profits or loss of assets.
I do however read something from Centamin that is at the best naive with no idea of marketing and from what it would appear a deliberate effort to shoot themselves in the foot.
This presentation was made basically to an investment forum to promote the company and I have attended this gathering in previous years and it is great for networking.
Why they start with a negative I just don't get and the author of the presentation needs firing, OK tell the truth but word it as a positive not a negative.
This is a very sound Company with no debt, no hedge requirements and with the price of Gold as it is still a great investment.
Many are jumping back into the Banks at the moment and if they want to do this it is up to them. However be aware if many do lose their jobs "post Brexit" I will not want to be in banks.
Do not believe we will not be approached either Acacia mining were involved in a court dispute with their own govt. in Tanzania and this did not stop Barrick taking them over. NB. The cheaper we are the more attractive we become for the big fish. Randgold and Acacia have both now gone from the FOOTSE and this I see as the Acacia natural successor.
My message is those that trade this share want it to go down and will be negative, whilst they move into the Banks Upt to them. However those that own this share might even be topping up. The only reason I see for this share going down is better news for trade talks. Sterling has also been rising against the Dollar and so in real terms our earnings are less. However this short lived news, I see no panic here at all. So don't be persuaded by the day traders to sell as this is want. This is a very soon Company here with no debt and still making profits (even more at the moment with higher Gold prices.
Groover, I sold 50% of my holding yesterday after reading the following:
From RNS 31/7/19 "Outlook
Centamin maintains annual guidance for 2019: gold production of 490,000-520,000 ounces, at cash cost2,3 of US$675-725 per ounce produced and AISC2,3 of US$890-950 per ounce sold; Production and free cash flow3,4 expected to be stronger in the second half ("H2") predominantly driven by improved grades from the open pit; Costs to trend downwards in line with the expected increased production in H2;"
Then presentation 12/9/19 states : Annual production expected towards the the lower end of the FY19 range. Q3 production to be lower than Q2 2019"
I've been in this share long enough to see a pattern arising so have reduced my exposure and I think many others have as well.
In with a small buy
Not too much in case this has further to fall
Two large buys totalling over 50k at least, so not everyone is bailing.
Still can't see in the presentation where the negativity of this magnitude has come from.
Trade talks will collapse again as China are having to deal with an individual with clear mental health issues
Once again another potential disappointment cushioned in a presentation. This share is becoming a serial disappointer now. Just when you think things are looking up. Gold continues to build a base around USD1,500 and looks promising for further rises and Centamin, having recently touched 150p manages to fall several rungs back down the ladder...lol. It's P&L forecasts were based on a gold price of USD1,250 (margin USD310 v's AISC). Now it's USD560 margin v's AISC (80% higher) and still it falls. Q1 production was 106k, Q2 118k, Q3 ? less than Q2 so 110k appx or less still ? At 110k for Q3 we will need 156k for Q4 to get to bottom end forecast of 490k which would be a Q4 record. Previous best Q4 2017 154.3k. If Q3 is less than 110k then will need even more. As hedgehogg says really testing the goodwill of shareholders now and confidence in the management remains fragile.
AIMHO of course
It looks like Blackrock once again have insider information. Happens all too often. Either than or they have an awesome crystal ball (with gold flakes in!)
I think we've discussed buy outs many times and until the court case is settled there is little chance, if it weren't for the court case I agree, and I think we would have been bought already.
It also appears to me that Centamin have interests in the west of Africa where Acacia share exploration rights such as Burkina Faso , and so no doubt Barrick are speaking with them. Lets see how events play out?
Once the Fed cuts, and if the trade deal with the USA and China breaks down this share will recover very quickly, the Gold price is starting to rise again already today. Other miners are also falling so it is not all about Centamin.
There is also the possibility as the big miners are fighting out who is to be the largest that Centamin at this rates could be approached for a buy out. So watch this space.
I don't think we will see below 80p in 2019 or 2020.
They are really testing the goodwill of shareholders, Ive sold loads in the last two weeks, broken promises, glad I caught a few at the near high.
As outlined in my previous posts: - Q3 was always going to be the acid-test of credibility. - Requiring a stair-step upwards in production to confirm the rationale behind the forecast.
This will be a buy around 70-0p IMHO
correction: - Should read ' a massive 22% increase in production in H2'
Presentation not taken well. I think investors are cautious after last years shenanigans, they are bailing after reading between the lines. Disappointing re production, but I think the company are also being disingenuous saying cost rises are 17% in line with targets, what bull****, 17% is unsustainable. Finally progress in solar farm, Africa, court case all look bogged down, management cannot perform on any level.
Very familiar pattern I'm afraid. - The back loading of forecasting to avoid having to reveal the truth. - H1 45% - H2 55% - requiring a masssive 22% in H2 to meet forecast. - Not possible. Forewarning of lower Q3 is a precursor of worse to follow. I believe there is now a strong possibility of a manufactured mine-incident to cover-up for an even worse Q4. It will be a way of saving face.. - I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast percentages flip-flops. H1 becoming 55% and H2 45%. They used the same tactic last-year, except it was a breakdown of essential equipment for which there were no spare-parts, when in truth, it was a problem with grades all along. - I have a feeling something is about to be conjured-up to achieve the same outcome. - Hope my cynicism proves to be over-the-top, but my lack of trust is telling me otherwise.
AKA - the drop in this sp?
Bloody stupid in fact......
I dont know what it is being a long term holder, it really is a gluten for punishment,I think it must be the thrill of the ride,not knowing when the next rise and dip is around the corner,have been told many times the easiest thing is to buy a share and the hardest knowing when to sell how true in centamins case, just hope there is a fantastic rise coming round the corner,cant see it yet though, but you never know!! GLA.
Yeah, I think it’s just lower production targets from the report. Doubt over board integrity after sandbagging the forecast only to ease us into bad news about the reduction, same as this time last year.
Bright future though. It will just get oversold as usual for a few weeks, and MM’s will shake the tree and then we should come back stronger than ever.
Has the report sent waves across the market which in turn caused the SP to drop so dramatically or is there something other than that that I have missed?
ECB President Mario Draghi also lowered inflation and growth forecasts for the eurozone.
"Mario Draghi has brought out the kitchen sink once again, with the eurozone economy no better despite all his efforts. The question is whether the recovery will stick this time around," said Joshua Mahony at IG.
Has there been any reply from remainers on this? Or is how the European economy performing of no issue to them ie they want to remain in at all costs?
Stocks in Europe were in in the green on Friday after the decision by the European Central Bank to cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points and reintroduce quantitative easing of €20 billion per month from November. The institution's president Mario Draghi explained the decision was a response to the shortfall in inflation and persistent downside risks. The ECB left rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility unchanged.
Investors were also turning their focus on the meeting of European ministers of economy and finance, set to begin around the opening bell.
The DAX climbed 0.19% at 7:51 am CET, as the FTSE 100 added 0.26%. The CAC 40 was up 0.05% at 7:5 am CET.
The euro increased 0.07% against the dollar at 7:53 am CET, buying $1.10712. Meanwhile, the pound gained 0.14%, changing hands for $1.23499.
Breaking the News / NI
I think the wondering is becoming a thing fo the past concerning the POG. The global debt (Gvt, Industry), which was at the heart of the GFC — far too much of it. A decade later, though, global debt is 50 per cent higher!
Global corporate and government debts now total almost $200 trillion ! and rising by the day! hour!
Corporate debt backed collateralised loan obligations have replaced sub-prime mortgage backed collateralised debt obligations as a key financial risk...OMG
Australia's record levels of household debt around 120 per cent of GDP make the economy vulnerable to global financial turmoil..one could argue that one of the saving graces in the recent 1-2 years has stemmed from a tailings dam disaster in Brazil, but thats not a good thing to rely on!
UBS is staying long-gold as it projects the yellow metal to hit $1,600 in under six months and then climb to $1,650 in under a year.
The U.S.-China trade war boosted the case for long-gold positions, UBS analysts at the wealth-management unit Giovanni Staunovo and Wayne Gordon said in a report on Monday.
I am getting rid of my fiats as fast as possible.
good luck all, but dont die wondering