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In the title!
Many thanks to Cowichan for highlighting the seismic survey. I've enjoyed following the links and looking at the company and other case studies. I was a researcher into seismic rock properties for about 10 years and their applications to interpretation of borehole and surface seismic surveys.
My take on what I've read:
The survey undertaken ( under previous managent) was well designed as a test of the methods (by HiSeis). Representative rock types were collected and seismic properties measured. 2-d lines over known geology were collected and the seismic response 'inverted' (technical term) into rock properties. The test showed that imaging was good, and inference about rock types consistent with reality.
Management decided not to go to a (expensive?) 3-d survey, which is likely a reasonable decision. Given the need for direct drilling to prove reserves, it is likely a reasonable decision by the new management to prioritise the current drilling and put any 3-d imaging on a back-burner.
Or they might be trying to pull a fast one on investors ... I don't get that impression, but I might be an innocent about company politics.
Thanks for the input Softrock!
Your back of the envelope figures are helpful - but would be all the more helpful if Centamin provided the figures.
What if it only adds 40k ounces per year extra - or 30k ounces - or less?
What if the waste clearance could have been undertaken albeit at a slower pace but far cheaper using Centamin's own fleet? What would the cost comparison/advantage look like?
Shareholders should be privy to real data points. But alas we are kept in the dark.
Trusting Centamin's BOD to do the smart thing hasn't been a winning bet as the drip, drip, drip downward flow of the share price proves.
Interesting question about justifying the cost of the waste clearance. Need to re-read what was said about it to justify it at the time.
But how about a back of the envelope sum? Say waste clearance leads to 80000 more oz of gold a year. Say $500-800 profit on each oz. Then $40-60m a year benefit of the waste strip contract, and payback over 4-6 years. I think my assumptions are 'worst case' on the benefits. We are told the waste strip sets up Sukari to produce for at least another 10 years at over 500000 oz a year.
Martin Horgan answered a direct question about the pit wall movement at one of his presentations. He said that the danger to the pit wall had been addressed and was no longer an issue. From memory this was within six months of the movement being detected.
The pit wall danger did cause higher grade ore in the open pit to become inaccessible for mining and so hit production forecast. As I understand it, it was the impact on production which highlighted the need for the massive waste clearance so as to reintroduce flexibility and predictable continuity of production zones for the future. Waste clearance was not to remediate the pit wall movement.
One of the features of Horgan's manager to date has been to have a thorough review of the mining practice and mining team. Being a former academic geologist/geophysicist I am particularly impressed by the bottom up geological evaluation of Sukari and surrounds presented late last year. Tough decisions have been made and a clear production plan laid out for the mid-term. The plan flags up potential for upside.
So my take on it is no they did not make a big deal of the pit wall movement. The market quite rightly did make a big deal of the expensive waste stripping, and management have been clear about the consequences of that decision.
Management have been clear about a sea change to reliability of production forecasts following the change to production drilling - another important change made by Horgan's management.
Personally I see the RNs and presentation on production planning we had recently as much more important than some specific detail about whether production has resumed below the site of the pit wall movement. Though perhaps an enquiry might get an answer?
As I have learnt more about events under previous management, I share concerns highlighted here esp. by Cowichan about legacy issues from that era.
Anybody else think that it shouldn't take a bloody war to make a positive effect on Centamin's share price?
I compiled this 5 year share price comparison yesterday before gold popped - but the stats still apply as we've only moved up relative to others moving up too.
5 year share price performance
Centamin Down 42%
B2Gold Up 21%
Barrick Up 17%
Endeavour Up 21%
Newmont Up 89%
Yamana Up 78%
Kinross Up 41%
AngloGold Up 97%
Pretium Up 27%
Centerra Up 79%
Equinox Up 10%
K92 Up 728%
Osisko Up 7%
And the main reason Centamin is DOWN while the other miners are UP all comes down to one incident - the movement of the open pit wall.
I noticed somebody asked this morning when the pit wall would be fixed. The fact that he/she had to ask is just another example of Centamin's poor communication with the market.
I'll go out on a limb and say the pit wall was 'fixed' quite soon (maybe 4-6 months?) after the Capital waste clearing project started - but we are left to guess at the exact moment Centamin restarted mining from the area below 'the incident' because nobody officially told us.
The ORIGINAL announcement of the pit wall incident and the subsequent awarding Capital a $260 million 'fix it' contract was done haphazardly - in retrospect perhaps notifying the market of such a minor event wasn't even necessary.
Think about it - didn't management assure us these minor pit wall movements are common and are prone to happen in all large open pits at some point? So why did they make a big deal of it?
Also consider that spending a similar amount of money ($260 million ) would almost pay for the entire proposed mining complex in Cote D'Ivoire - which rightly needs many careful financial studies including a preliminary economic assessment, a definitive feasibility study, etc.
Then how is it that Capital got this ENOURMOUS contract and shareholders were all told of it after the fact?
Can anybody tell me if the added accessible ore will eventually pay back this huge expenditure? No? That's because we've not been given the financial rationale as one would expect when spending this amount of money.
Bottom Line - some members of Centamin's board of directors are not to be trusted - they've made too many mistakes and have shown zero accountability. Anything that gets proposed in the future better be fully explained and rationalized prior to pulling the trigger because all forms of forced accountability including legal action is now on the table.
If they are I certainly hope the invaders aren't wearing their NBCD suits. The ground there is still contaminated.
Dark Day indeed.
Gold popped up but I think the US markets will be suffering huge margin calls in equities. Gold suffers when they take these margin calls as far as Im aware.
My prayers to Ukraine.
They're fighting around Chernobyl apparently - stay with it peeps ...
Got out of here at 101.3 and into IAG. GL to all holders. I hope it gets back to its previous highs for you all
You are welcome Sotolo,
The majority of the forum members are genuine decent people, unfortunately we were all far too trusting of the previous management and got taken advantage of!
Compared to other non Russian Miners this isnāt really moving, am hoping this will catch up after the financials, with gold near $2000 we should be way above Ā£1ā¦
10 Million shares traded in a few hours and 5% up. Zero debt company dividend-paying when the gold price was $1250. Some small issues, less than Ā£1.50 is really a fire sale! The real price should be Ā£2.50
Thanks Sotolo
Fair enough - Good diplomatic answer if I may say so. :-)
The only reason I asked is that there appears to have been a marked lack of support from British Journalists/media in relation to the scandal behind his extradition .- There was a time when the 'Fourth estate' would have had a field day. - The aftermath of the 'News of the world'/ Murdoch trial has turned them all into toothless guard-dogs I fear.
Chart - breakout @ >100p
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1496810296425467914?s=20
They know where the high grade ore is.
$POG HITS YEAR HIGH
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
$1,970 - you've gotta expect this to put on some weight from here.
What is the estimated timer period to fix the wall?
What would you reckon the share price and profit would be if gold holds around the $1950 --$2000 mark?
Hopefully it will stay around this mark --------even when (I hope it is when and not "if") the Ukraine situation is sorted.
Once the dust settles (whatever that looks like) we will be left with hyperinflation, a massive recession and a complete mess and with it a wholesale return to having more gold in more portfolios.
Thanks Rebess and for your memory. I am āconflictedā about Julian Asange, and do not know enough, on the one hand he brought some hidden things to light, on the other he threatened Western intelligence and does not appear a very pleasant man. Perhaps sometimes it is good not to be for or against but to see both sides? (Though not in this conflict.)
And Aether Centamin currently being a high cost producer should I believe rise faster than other miners as the gold price rise will raise our profits more. Also once the next results are out, and perhaps a final knock back, things should also improve for the company lifting the price further, so all in all if gold rise a great investment imho
Given the problems with the mine, will the price of CEY increase at the same rate as other gold miners?
Thank you.
Early morning.
Will the share price increase to reflect the increase in the price of gold similar to other gold miners?
Hi Sotolo
Interesting comments from someone who was a professional in that world. - Do you have a view on Julian Assange?