The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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This article is from last year but it summarizes well the current situation which has only worsened.
Egyptian entrepreneurs have warned that uncertainty over the exchange rate is suffocating business and impeding their ability to plan and invest, as the country endures its worst foreign currency crisis in years. A new devaluation is expected, economists and business leaders say. Meanwhile, the dollar shortage has led to a black market in foreign currency.
The private sector has struggled to fund imports.
Adham Nadim, who heads his family’s company Nadim Group, which makes furniture for hotels and corporate clients, said he was having problems importing crucial inputs such as hinges, accessories and paints.
“Everyone gives me speculative prices based on what they think the price of the dollar on the black market will be if I plan to purchase in two months,” he said. “It is a bigger problem if the project extends to six or 10 months.”
Samih Sawiris, a leading Egyptian tourism and real estate investor, told Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya television this month that the foreign exchange situation had deterred him from further investments in Egypt.
“Everyone is waiting for clarity on the exchange rate,” he said, describing the issue as “hurdle number one, two and three” for investors. “How can I know if a project would make profits or losses?” he said. “Which rate should I use — the international [forward] rate, the black market rate or the official rate?”
https://www.ft.com/content/b69bbce2-11e1-4da8-9608-b7af2a6fd329
The Bottom Line:
Sisi's privatization push of government assets remain and will remain stalled as there is no consensus over the exchange rate to be used to value Egyptian assets (goods, land, properties). The prime beachfront property development (sale) Siko mentioned is an exception - a crown jewel so to speak. But was it correctly valued or done out of desperation? Egypt is over a barrel of crude oil lit on fire hanging by a spider web. Why not also auction off the pyramids?
In the end free markets decide what the exchange rate ought to be not a Central Bank - unless that Central Bank ALREADY has sufficient foreign reserves (think Japan & China) to manipulate the exchange rate on the FX market by buying and selling in large quantities.
Egypt does not have this ability. But Egypt does have a literal stranglehold on the Egyptian people's ability, and Centamin's ability, to get a fair exchange on foreign currency. Thus, Centamin's shareholders are being extorted every time they are forced to sell gold to the CBE (which is monthly) at the artificially low exchange rate.
Not surprisingly, Sukari employees agree with that assessment -->
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-central-bank-boosts-gold-reserves-activity-7166942232908955648-rZN
Cowichan
Centamin Egyptian mining staff are they paid official rates to USD or unofficial? Does Centamin pay for all its reagent at official or unofficial rates. Do Centamin have an official AISC cost to produce per ounce or does it get converted somewhere into unofficial Egyptian rates? Tony
Water companies have spent the past few years dumping BILLIONS OF LITRES of raw sewage into our rivers, seas and streams. So far, consumers like us have been footing the bill for the incompetence and mismanagement of water bosses, while they get to enjoy bonuses, dividends and profits. Given their behaviour, banning bonuses doesn’t go far enough. The next Government should fine water companies in shares, not just their bonuses and profits.
https://act.38degrees.org.uk/act/fine-or-renationalise-water-companies-petition
BBC News: Joe Lycett investigates sewage network in new show
Channel 4: Joe Lycett vs Sewage
[2] The Guardian: Thames Water pumped at least 72bn litres of sewage into Thames since 2020
Sky News: Water bosses have received £25m in bonuses since last election, Labour says
The Financial Times: UK water company dividends jump to £1.4bn despite criticism over sewage outflows
Sky News: From privatisation to profits: Pressure on 'rip off' water industry unlikely to go away any time soon
[3] POLITICO: Rishi Sunak confirms loosening of key green pledge
BBC News: Keir Starmer defends Labour U-turn on £28bn green spending
[4] The Mirror: Water company bosses told to 'swim in the mess you've made' after pollution warnings
[5] 38 Degrees: Where’s my poo
38 Degrees: Why we inflated a giant poo emoji outside The Houses of Parliament
[6] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Government cracks down on bonuses for water company bosses
The Guardian: Labour to urge MPs to ban bonuses for water firm bosses over sewage dumping
A very interesting presentation on the realities EV motoring
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZysvgm2_Aw
Jeeze Steve, "it's war " I am sure that is pretty obvious, but you are seriously deluded if you think that Hams can just be be bombed into oblivion and the problem will be solved.
The idea that if Israel bombes Gaza in oblivion and continue to build 12000 Israel settlers homes on the land previously occupied by peaceful Palestinians who will be forced to live in refugee camps and detention centres is going to ensure that Hams will rise up again ever stronger with support from other similar factions in the region .
The policies of Benjamin Yetenhue are little different and much like the policies of Hitler and Stalin
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/poland/1942-07-01/hitlers-transfers-population-eastern-europe
https://news.stanford.edu/2010/09/23/naimark-stalin-genocide-092310/
https://www.history.com/news/ukrainian-famine-stalin
I am also glad to see Cowichan return and raising questions ,but also see your return and thank you for answering them, Cowichan is right to question the price Centamin is selling its gold for in Egypt as on first impressions selling gold at these prices could understandably cause some concern amongst shareholders and create unnecessary and unjustified uncertainty about the company.
But that said this forum is indeed fortunate to have you to explain that there is nothing untoward about this arrangement between the Egyptian government and Centamin who are both complying fully with Egypt's financial regulations.
Having debate on this forum and asking questions is beneficial to all concerned, so thank you once again to both of you.
Best
Tibbs
Hi Siko,
Your updates do seems like good news for Egypt.
Thank you Siko!
Tibbs
Https://www.reuters.com/business/egypt-announces-multi-billion-uae-investment-boost-forex-2024-02-23/
CAIRO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Egypt said on Friday it had signed a deal with the United Arab Emirates to develop a prime stretch of its Mediterranean coast that would bring $35 billion of investments to the indebted country over the next two months.
The deal with ADQ, the smallest of Abu Dhabi's three main sovereign investment funds, is for the development of the Ras El Hekma peninsula and could eventually attract as much as $150 billion in investments, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly told a press conference.
Such inflows would provide a huge boost to Egypt's crisis-stricken economy as it faces new pressures linked to the war in Gaza and seeks an expansion of its current IMF support programme.
The country has long struggled to attract large-scale foreign investment outside the hydrocarbons sector. In the financial year that ended in June 2023, net foreign direct investment stood at $10 billion.
Egypt's sovereign dollar bonds soared on Friday ahead of the announcement and continued their rally into the afternoon.
Longer-dated bonds enjoyed the biggest gains, with those maturing in 2031 or beyond up more than 4 cents in the dollar to trade at 65.5-73.4 cents - for most their highest level in around a year, Tradeweb data showed.
"If the financing comes through as planned, we believe this (along with an upsized IMF programme) should provide ample liquidity to cover Egypt's financing gap over the next four years," Farouk Soussa of Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Cowichan,
I understand exactly what you are saying, but are you saying that Centamin is losing because they are not selling their dollars in the black market in Egypt like some normal individuals or not getting Egyptian pounds from outside Egypt??!!
All the companies in Egypt exchange their dollars through the official channels (banks)..
You can't get many Egyptian pounds outside Egypt.. Egypt limits the max amount of cash to carry in/out of the country to 5k Egyptian pounds.. which is less than 200 dollars..
Centamin can't withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars from the bank and sell them on the black market at night in a side street!!
Are you aware that the black market in Egypt is very very illegal and whoever gets caught is sentenced to prison charged with national security crime?
Officers stand outside banks asking people coming out of the banks carrying dollars about the reason for carrying dollars in cash..
If Centamin or any company doesn't exchange their dollars officially, the government could easily ask them where they are getting Egyptian pounds from to pay their employers and expenses, and that would be a breach of contract giving Egypt a valid reason to cancel any agreement and Centamin would not have a leg to stand on..
Yes there is a black market in Egypt, but not for this type or that level.. it's mainly for individuals.. and it's not right and damages the national economy..
Also the main reason for a country to encourage investment is to attract foreign currency, not for that company to sell the foreign currency illegally!!
Emirate has just signed a contract to invest 35 billion dollars in Egypt over the next 2 yrs, so if they thought the same, they are losing over 17 billions dollars as they could exchange that amount on the black market or abroad!!
So Egypt is paying Centamin the correct price in dollars, and the dollars are getting exchanged officially like all the other companies BP, Shell, etc.... you can't fault any side for that.
By the way, welcome back:) I don't know if you heard about the Emirate huge investment contract which was signed yesterday and is one of the biggest ever .. 150 billion dollars.. expected to help to solve Egypt's foreign currency problem for the next 4 years at least.. it's good news, isn't it?
Siko
Analysts abandon bear cave for bull run,but traders stay balanced but bullish. Ernest Hoffman.
An interesting read for everyone,as it gives insite to the run up to the elections.
I personally have to smile about that headline,giving pictures in the mind of those animals escaping from a frozen cave with the bears fast asleep ,HA HA.
That's giving the gold away for less than it costs to mine. Every month, to the tune of $ 80,000,000 EGP ( could be more volume per month now , those were 2022 figures ) That's heavily subsidized gold purchases to a dictator run country, courtesy of you , the Centamin shareholder. The math:
Egypt's official exchange rate 30.85 EGP = 1 USD
Unofficial exchange rate 60 to 70 EGP = 1 USD
Yes, the agreement states Egypt will pay the international price ( i.e. $2000 USD currently ) BUT since the official exchange rate used to calculate the 'local currency' Centamin gets in return, that works out to just $ 61,693.36 EGP - the CBE's an artificially mandated cap. It should cost the CBE more than twice that to buy Centamin's gold! Egypt can't buy USD on the international market for an exchange rate of 30.85 EGP , it's an absurd, make-believe rate they force only their own population to accept - and most don't. (Siko knows...)
If Centamin had never entered into the agreement to trade its gold for EGP with the Central Bank of Egypt there are MUCH cheaper alternatives to acquire EGP offshore. Specifically, one $2000 USD ounce of gold would fetch between $ 120,000.00 EGP to $140,000.00 EGP . I think every single Centamin shareholder would prefer benefitting from the weak Egyptian pound. Indeed , some think Centamin IS benefitting from the weak Egyptian pound when in fact they are not. Acquiring EGP offshore would practically cut EGP denominated expenses (salaried workers, local contractors) in half.
But, since it is locally unlawful (wink, nod) to trade at a rate other than that which is prescribed by the Central Bank of Egypt , Centamin is S.O.L. If a company is caught trading USD for EGP on the black market, they could have their business halted, their property confiscated and their license to operate in Egypt revoked. Sound familiar?
Should shareholders *hope* Centamin's CEO Martin Horgan & CFO Ross Gerrard acquiesce to losing 50% of the value of the gold they continue to sell to Egypt's Central Bank monthly rather than lose the Sukari mine for breaking the rules? That's a Catch-22.
But somebody asks, 'I'm sure Centamin is secretly getting more than 30.85 EGP as an exchange for their gold sold to Egypt, no?'
As far as Centamin keeps records, they list the CBE sales in EGP on the balance sheet but not the US$ conversion factor nor the total ounces of gold sold to the CBE, making it impossible for shareholders & auditors to confirm or deny - or object to the loss guaranteeing strategy.
How many times Mr T- READ MY POSTS BEFORE RESPONDING!!!
Jeeze- I’ll repeat for the third time.
As I said Mr. t, it’s war.
And they will and have to persist until hamas are out of power.
Else many, many, many more die in the future long term- way more than now and until hamas are removed.
Andrew Maguire tackles a burning question from a US-based bullion dealer: is it possible that the Federal Reserve could try and confiscate your hard-earned gold savings?
The precious metals expert provides an update on the effects of Bitcoin ETFs on the gold price and comments on the strong geopolitically-driven demand for precious metals. Finally, Andrew shares some very good news for Silver Stackers.
http://tinyurl.com/4jyb82fn
hi mr bond,
trying to prove what a big man he is i suppose mr bond, hardly difficult to bring down wildlife with an ****nal of high velocity guns with heat seeking sights!
i would like to see bristow face a wild animal with a spear and shield like the massa and zulu warriors, really cant stand trophy hunters like bristow
takes more skill to photograph the wildlife and its more enjoyable for all concerned!
Bristow would soon solve that problem, being a big game hunter,his boardroom is reputed to be full of his prizes ,from floor to ceiling.
One can only imagine what his home residence is like. :-)
On 16 November 2023, a missile struck about 1,000 metres from the centre’s fence. One of the tigers, Tygriulia, experienced such a shock that she threw herself against the enclosure wall. She couldn’t stay on her feet for a few days afterwards and had heavy bruises. This situation required intensive veterinary care.
Due to the ongoing warfare, most of the big cats suffered from contusions and digestive problems prior to arriving at the centre—the results of nearby explosions and eating spoiled food due to lack of feed supply. Many had been left behind by their owners.
Sadly, in Ukraine, there is rampant, unregulated breeding of big cats for private owners and the exotic pet trade, which only exacerbates the issue of overfilled shelters. Experts estimate there are still dozens more lions in private homes within the country, and many continue to be abandoned or surrendered as the conflict forces evacuations.
These cats can’t be released back to the wild, as they were raised to be dependent on humans for their daily care—many since they were only a few weeks old. As cats learn the skills necessary to survive in the wild from their mothers, it’s near impossible to ensure they will be able to live outside of captivity.
http://tinyurl.com/2zxyh2bb
Its very unusual, Gold pushing up to 2040$ pre t oz.
Kitco news , A major attack on US infrastructure is now at its highest probability, Brandon Weishart.
I wonder if US traders are begining to buy Physical Gold, as a safeguard ?
Retired Col. Miri Eisin, Israel Defense Forces; managing director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism
“Total eradication of Hamas requires for Israel to not only carry out a military campaign in the Gaza Strip but also now Lebanon, Syria, Iran and even potentially Qatar where Hamas has a presence.
But even that is pretty far-fetched given that the IDF hasn’t even successfully eradicated Hamas from the West Bank, which Israel more thoroughly controls.
Michael Knights, senior fellow at The Washington Institute; co-founder, Militia Spotlight platform
“Military campaigns such as the Second World War against Nazism or the war against ISIS don’t eliminate the ideology or even all remnants of the terror regime, but that’s not the point. The point is to get a regime like Hamas as close to elimination as possible with military means, and then hand off a more manageable task to policing and counter-terrorism forces, judiciaries, and political and economic processes.”
Dave Des Roches, associate professor at Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
“Can Hamas be eliminated? Yes, it is possible to destroy any military organization, even one which claims a religious justification. Defeating it would require a complete destruction of its command network and most of its weapons facilities. This is not an easy task, and will probably not be possible without occupying most of all of Gaza for at least some period of time.
So in order to truly defeat Hamas, the critical aspect is to ensure that Palestinians are free to reject Hamas, if they so chose. What that means is that Hamas adherents must lose the ability to impose their will on Palestinians who chose not to follow them – Hamas will have to lose its weapons and any ability to operate covertly in Gaza. This means that there will have to be a political entity which is capable of policing Gaza which is not Hamas. That is unlikely.”
$2039.54
So are the drones digging their own tunnels in the sand of the Eastern Desert. ;-)
As I said Mr. t, it’s war.
And they will and have to persist until hamas are out of power.
Else many, many, many more die in the future long term- way more than now and until hamas are removed.
Barrick using drones underground
For three days Flyability’s Elios 2, a drone created
specifically for confined space inspections, was put
to the test at Barrick Gold Corporation’s Golden
Sunlight Mine in Whitehall, Montana.
https://rb.gy/osh1ya
Fair comments Madtaway, But then Boris has always been a liar!
Russia was “ready to end the war if we took neutrality,” Ukraine’s former top negotiator confirmed, but Boris Johnson said, “let’s just fight.” https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/official-johnson-forced-kyiv-to-refuse-russian-peace-deal/
There is "absolutely no sign" that Russia wants to reach a deal with Ukraine, and it could not be trusted even if one was on offer, Boris Johnson has told the Commons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-62998067
Putin’s sense of Russia’s insecurity vis-à-vis a much more powerful NATO is genuine, but during the current impasse over Ukraine, his recent statements have become more fevered and even paranoid.
Usually a rationalist, Putin now appears to have lost patience and is driven by his emotions.
Putin knows enough history to recognize that Russia did not expand in the 20th century – losing parts of Poland, Ukraine, Finland and eastern Turkey after the 1917 revolution – except for a brief period before and after World War II when Stalin annexed the Baltic republics and pieces of Finland, and united lands from interwar Poland with Soviet Ukraine.
Putin himself was traumatized by the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the loss of one-third of its former territory and half of its population. In an instant, the USSR disappeared, and Russia found itself much weaker and more vulnerable to rival great powers.
Many Russians agree with Putin and feel resentment and humiliation, along with anxiety about the future. But overwhelmingly they do not want war, Russian pollsters and political analysts say. https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999