The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi again Cowichan..
If you notice, I have not said a word in my posts about Sisi.. good or bad.. I don't think I need to explain what I think about him here, because for me it's irrelevant to this BB.. but if you think it's relevant because he is destroying Egypt's economy (I'm not saying you are wrong), then I would blame Sunak and the UK for destroying Egypt's economy too.. they support Israel and don't want the war to stop.. this war is costing Egypt too too much because of tourism, the Suez canal and the tension in the area and on the borders.. Egypt could take years to recover from the negative effects of this war on its economy.. the UK sends weapons to Israel and even don't want to vote to ask Israel for a cease fire.. is that relevant? Because if it's, then I could go on and on about blaming the UK and its government..
I'm not talking at all about the reasons for the war or the suffering of the Palestinians.. I'm only talking about the effects on Egypt..
Ulterior motives aside I'm appreciative of your 1st hand accounts of Egypt's economy, yet I think not addressing Sisi's mismanagement of Egypt's economy is disingenuous. Whereas I blame Sisi for destroying Egypt's economy, you refrain. Surely you are aware Sisi uses proxies to attack all criticism of his actions both within Egypt and abroad - in fact one of the only remaining independent journalists in Egypt has been recently silenced - charged with issuing 'fake news' facing large fines & imprisonment.
This is what Sisi has done since his military coup, imprisons those who dare speak the truth , whether about his criminal activity, personal enrichment (theft of Egyptian wealth) or more recently , sound the alarm over Egypt's crumbling economy.
21 February, 2024
In yet another attempt to suppress freedom of expression in Egypt, a country ranked as the world's third-worst jailer of journalists, the editor-in-chief of independent online news outlet Mada Masr, Lina Attalah, is currently facing charges of "publishing false news" and "running a website without a license."
Attalah received an official request for her presence before prosecuting authorities in Cairo, three days after the Cairo-based outlet had run, on 13 February, an investigative report about the alleged illegal role of powerful businessman Ibrahim El-Argany in the evacuation of distressed Palestinians from the Gaza Strip into Egypt.
If found guilty, Attalah is expected to face a maximum fine worth from one million to three million Egyptian pounds (about US$33,000 to US$100,000) for establishing a website without a license and up to a one-year-imprisonment for "publishing fake news," according to the Mada Masr lawyer Hassan Al-Azhari.
Mada Masr is arguably one of the few remaining free voices in Egypt over the past decade, which led the authorities to target its staff. The outlet is known for running investigative reports revealing alleged state irregularities.
Among other significant reports that Mada Masr ran in recent years was one about the president's son, senior intelligence officer Mahmoud El-Sisi. Since then, the feud between the authorities and Mada Masr is believed to have escalated.
https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-charges-mada-masrs-lina-attalah-over-fake-news
Such Russia-like repression makes it difficult for international investors to wake up to the danger they face by investing in Egypt. Sisi is the Muslim version of Putin , and those who praise either I hold with contempt.
Hi Siko, Cowichan & Mr Bond,
Personally I don't see anything wrong with Cowichan or anyone else asking Centamin questions and lets face it they should at least acknowledge receiving them and if they are unable to give a full answer then answer politely as to the reason why, failure to do so can only raise suspicions that the company isn't being honest.
I also think it is to be commended if, after all people have the honesty to admit to be shareholders or not, if there is to be a policy of only those that hold share can post on here, or ask questions then surely the same policy should apply to the traders on here who claim to make profits by jumping in and out, i.e. if the no holder, no poster rule should be applied then when they bail out until the price drops for a new entry point then in that time until they buy in again they shouldn't post at all, but as that isn't the case then there isn't any reason why shouldn't Cowichan post whilst he may also be waiting to buy in again.
I have been critical of Centamin and I am still apprehensive about believing that we are being given the full picture , we were lied to far many too many times in the past for that , but then I have a considerable number of shares and so I have no qualms about expressing my dissatisfaction and of course my satisfaction when I feel it is appropriate.
At the present the service from Centamin Investor Relations is complete pants and I feel there is room for great improvement in the company performance, I await the March update !
Also I don't subscribe to the idea that one should only talk about Centamin shares on here and the idea that one can regard any shares as being ring-fenced from what is going on in the rest of the world is ludicrous to say the least.
You misunderstand me Siko, Pardon me , I am certainly not saying you are attacking and certainly not intimidating anyone.
Far from it.
Yes all all allowed to post whatever they like, with little fear of LSE doing anything these days.
DID is possible.
Mr Bond,
I'm not attacking Cowichan or intimidating him.. not at all.. but I live between both countries and witness myself what's going on in Egypt..
Many people in Egypt live the best life, and many can't get food on the table.. The same in the UK, but different standards of course..
It all depends on what you are trying to highlight..
As for you Cowichan, It looks like the only reason for your postings over the last 2 years is to warn people about investing in Centamin/Egypt.. which is quite odd.. you have not posted one good post about Egypt/Centamin since you sold.. is that how you see things in both? Zero positive?
I'm currently not a holder, but I only post when I see posts that are not fair or highlight one side.. they could be true, but not showing the whole picture .. I don't come out of the blue and say look at this great news, because I know there are good and bad, but it's not fair to highlight only one.. it's actually misleading..
I'm not saying don't post, not at all, because this is a public forum for everyone to share their thoughts, holders and non-holders, I'm explaining the reasons for my replies..
Siko, by his own admission The protaganst you have been trying to explain to, is not invested in Centamin, strange ? I know.
But obviously gets some" pleasure" posting its thoughts,for others to be amazed by its intellegence.
Have a good day, to you and family and when things seem bad there is always hope for improvement.
Cowichan,
Actually I'm a pharmacist in both the UK and Egypt, and I could explain to you in full details about this.
Yes, there is a shortage of some medicines in Egypt, but obviously not 80% or anywhere near that, otherwise pharmacies would have closed down by now if they run the business on 20% availability. This is the head of the medicine trade union stating the shortage is around 8-10%
https://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/3092953
I don't know if you are fortunate enough not to take any medication in England, but there is a shortage of medication in the UK too, and you could ask any pharmacy near you. Ask them about diabetic injections, steroids creams, adrenaline injections, ADHD medication, psoriasis shampoos, steroids nasal sprays, antifungal shampoos, etc ..
As for Egypt, yes there is a shortage, but as I said, nowhere near 80%, and it's for many reasons.
One of them of course is as you mentioned the shortage of dollars to import medicines, but what you don't know is that Egypt's prescribing is by brand name, and many people would not accept alternatives made by other companies, while in the UK prescribing is by the active ingredients, so we give any product available containing the same ingredient, which makes any shortage less obvious. It's like the doctor prescribed Calpol, and there are many other products containing paracetamol, but the patient would only want Calpol the brand, it's imported and in short supply, but many local products are available.. so most of the short medicines have alternatives. Of course some don't have the exact alternative, in that case the doctor changes the medication. We do that in the UK on a daily basis.
My mum in Egypt takes around 12 medication, and recently 2 of them she could not get the exact medication she is used to take, but was sorted by alternatives..
There are many other reasons other than the dollar shortage, but this is not the place to explain them as this is not relevant at all.
Egypt is a third world country, you have to expect and accept that many things to be far worse than first world countries like the UK.. if you are not prepared to accept that for the country where you are investing, then I would suggest you don't consider investing there, because many things will never change, and you maybe better off looking for investment in the UK or USA. Focusing all your efforts on highlighting how bad the country is will not help you with your investment (If you are looking to invest).
I travel frequently between both the UK and Egypt, when I do, it's like travelling between different planets, but I accept the goods and bads in each, try to adopt and enjoy my time wherever I'm. I don't know if you know, but the UK is very bad at many things too, I don't need to list them as we all know..
Life is hard everywhere now, people in the UK (1st world country) go to food banks.
Feb 15. 2024
The Egyptian chamber of commerce's pharmaceuticals division said this month that the main problem was a shortage of US dollars to pay for imports of medications and for raw materials for local manufacturers.
The shortages have been getting worse since early last year and are now at a "critical level", Dr Noha El Sayed, who runs a pharmacy in Cairo's Heliopolis district, told The National.
“About 80 per cent of our listed medications are not available," she said.
A number of broad-spectrum antibiotics, including Augmentin and Zithromax, have also disappeared from Egyptian pharmacy shelves, according to Dr El Sayed, in addition to tablet-form cancer medications.
Intravenous cancer medications are still provided at specialised hospitals, according to Dr El Sayed. However, some patients who need the medicine in pill form have begun to buy them via unofficial channels.
Black-market varieties of well-known brands, which may be expired or cut with additional substances, are circulating. Some Egyptians are resorting to unofficial versions of insulin, thyroid treatments and blood pressure disorder medications as the verified versions of these crucial medicines become less available.
Aside from being 10 times their listed prices in some cases, according to Dr El Sayed, black-market products are unregulated.
Local manufacturers have been unable to fill the growing gap between demand and supply due to increasing operation costs and a heavy reliance on imported components, Dr El Sayed said, emphasising that the availability of dollars and the high price paid to acquire them are the root of the problem.
The continuing shortages have reduced pharmacies’ profits, hitting cash flow and further reducing their ability to buy stock from importers and large-scale manufacturers.
Pharmacies have also suffered from continued price caps on medications, despite suppliers selling their medicines to pharmacies at higher prices.
The Egyptian health ministry issues price lists on medications in Egypt and regulates pharmacies to ensure they do not charge customers more than what they paid to suppliers, Dr El Sayed said.
“Most of our profits are made on cosmetics and beauty products, which have tripled in price in most cases.
"Today a lot of the old laws aren't quite operational any more because of the instability in the markets and the exchange rate. Suppliers are now selling to the highest bidder and they are not favouring public hospitals," Dr Moharrem said.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/2024/02/15/medicine-shortages-cairo-diabetes-drugs/
Siko, if this an accurate portrayal of life on the ground for ordinary Egyptians then isn't it time Sisi allow USD/EGP trade without artificial restrictions? Otherwise Sisi is responsible for all the misery and illnesses that continue to go untreated - and the black market trade will only increase as Egyptians will not just lay down and die to follow the Pharaoh's
UAE have plenty of US $ s they want to get rid of.
Since 2022 UAE have deposited 35 Billion $ in Egypts favour.
In 2022 Egypt exported to UAE1.89 billion $ worth to UAE.
The UAE are not paying Egypt in UAE currency - but good old USD
Why? Because BRICS currencies are by and large 3rd world paper, recycle it and make something more useful , like toilet paper.
I forgot Iran, excuse me especially Iran :-)
(Thus, Centamin's shareholders are being extorted every time they are forced to sell gold to the CBE (which is monthly) at the artificially low exchange rate)..
Ok..let's say there is no such agreement.. Centamin sold all its gold abroad (for the same price in dollars as they get from the CBE, because the CBE pays the international price in dollars).. let's say Centamin needs 80 Million Egyptian pounds a month to pay salaries and local expenses.. what do you suggest they do?
Where will they get Egyptian pounds from?
You suggest they go to the black market to get more for their dollars?
You suggest there is an illegal way of getting more money?
There are many other ways to get more money illegally, but we are talking about a responsible reputable company, like many other companies working in Egypt..
If this agreement did not exist, Centamin would sell the gold abroad, then convert dollars to Egyptian pounds through the legal and official channels in Egypt, for the same price they get from the CBE.. so I can't see how this agreement is bad for Centamin..
Also Egypt doesn't trigger this agreement every month.. it's only done on the Egyptian government request, which does not happen every month.. you could tell by the CBE reserve, which does not go up every month as they don't have the ability to purchase every month.. so what does Centamin do during those months when the CBE does not buy gold and does not give them Egyptian pounds?
The black market in Egypt is for people travelling abroad on holidays.. people wanting to send money to their children studying or living abroad..
But essential imports and tuition fees abroad are covered by the banks through the official rate.. the government banned all unnecessary and luxury imports to help the local economy..
Centamin is like all companies working in Egypt .. no exception..
And for Egypt, if the UAE 150 billion dollar investment is an exception, that's enough for them!!
The developed area in Egypt is only 7% of the total country.. 120 millions are living on 7% of the country.. the rest is desert.. so to develop such a large area in the desert, you have to look at the added value.. even if 150 billion investment is an undervalued, it's what this investment would add in terms of creating jobs, paying taxes and pumping foreign currency in the economy.. all that in an area that would have never been touched without such investment..
There is a black market in Egypt.. yes.. definitely.. but not for companies to exchange their millions of dollars.. anyone involved in such scale would be behind bars by now..
China, India,Algeria,Bolivia,Kuwait,Russia,Sth Africa,Bahraine,Egypt,Brazil,Bangaladesh,Belarus,Kurdistan,Ethiopia.
Once Egypt settles in,their are plenty of new trading partners to choose from.
And new trading agreements.
This article is from last year but it summarizes well the current situation which has only worsened.
Egyptian entrepreneurs have warned that uncertainty over the exchange rate is suffocating business and impeding their ability to plan and invest, as the country endures its worst foreign currency crisis in years. A new devaluation is expected, economists and business leaders say. Meanwhile, the dollar shortage has led to a black market in foreign currency.
The private sector has struggled to fund imports.
Adham Nadim, who heads his family’s company Nadim Group, which makes furniture for hotels and corporate clients, said he was having problems importing crucial inputs such as hinges, accessories and paints.
“Everyone gives me speculative prices based on what they think the price of the dollar on the black market will be if I plan to purchase in two months,” he said. “It is a bigger problem if the project extends to six or 10 months.”
Samih Sawiris, a leading Egyptian tourism and real estate investor, told Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya television this month that the foreign exchange situation had deterred him from further investments in Egypt.
“Everyone is waiting for clarity on the exchange rate,” he said, describing the issue as “hurdle number one, two and three” for investors. “How can I know if a project would make profits or losses?” he said. “Which rate should I use — the international [forward] rate, the black market rate or the official rate?”
https://www.ft.com/content/b69bbce2-11e1-4da8-9608-b7af2a6fd329
The Bottom Line:
Sisi's privatization push of government assets remain and will remain stalled as there is no consensus over the exchange rate to be used to value Egyptian assets (goods, land, properties). The prime beachfront property development (sale) Siko mentioned is an exception - a crown jewel so to speak. But was it correctly valued or done out of desperation? Egypt is over a barrel of crude oil lit on fire hanging by a spider web. Why not also auction off the pyramids?
In the end free markets decide what the exchange rate ought to be not a Central Bank - unless that Central Bank ALREADY has sufficient foreign reserves (think Japan & China) to manipulate the exchange rate on the FX market by buying and selling in large quantities.
Egypt does not have this ability. But Egypt does have a literal stranglehold on the Egyptian people's ability, and Centamin's ability, to get a fair exchange on foreign currency. Thus, Centamin's shareholders are being extorted every time they are forced to sell gold to the CBE (which is monthly) at the artificially low exchange rate.
Not surprisingly, Sukari employees agree with that assessment -->
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-central-bank-boosts-gold-reserves-activity-7166942232908955648-rZN
Cowichan
Centamin Egyptian mining staff are they paid official rates to USD or unofficial? Does Centamin pay for all its reagent at official or unofficial rates. Do Centamin have an official AISC cost to produce per ounce or does it get converted somewhere into unofficial Egyptian rates? Tony
Water companies have spent the past few years dumping BILLIONS OF LITRES of raw sewage into our rivers, seas and streams. So far, consumers like us have been footing the bill for the incompetence and mismanagement of water bosses, while they get to enjoy bonuses, dividends and profits. Given their behaviour, banning bonuses doesn’t go far enough. The next Government should fine water companies in shares, not just their bonuses and profits.
https://act.38degrees.org.uk/act/fine-or-renationalise-water-companies-petition
BBC News: Joe Lycett investigates sewage network in new show
Channel 4: Joe Lycett vs Sewage
[2] The Guardian: Thames Water pumped at least 72bn litres of sewage into Thames since 2020
Sky News: Water bosses have received £25m in bonuses since last election, Labour says
The Financial Times: UK water company dividends jump to £1.4bn despite criticism over sewage outflows
Sky News: From privatisation to profits: Pressure on 'rip off' water industry unlikely to go away any time soon
[3] POLITICO: Rishi Sunak confirms loosening of key green pledge
BBC News: Keir Starmer defends Labour U-turn on £28bn green spending
[4] The Mirror: Water company bosses told to 'swim in the mess you've made' after pollution warnings
[5] 38 Degrees: Where’s my poo
38 Degrees: Why we inflated a giant poo emoji outside The Houses of Parliament
[6] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Government cracks down on bonuses for water company bosses
The Guardian: Labour to urge MPs to ban bonuses for water firm bosses over sewage dumping
A very interesting presentation on the realities EV motoring
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZysvgm2_Aw
Jeeze Steve, "it's war " I am sure that is pretty obvious, but you are seriously deluded if you think that Hams can just be be bombed into oblivion and the problem will be solved.
The idea that if Israel bombes Gaza in oblivion and continue to build 12000 Israel settlers homes on the land previously occupied by peaceful Palestinians who will be forced to live in refugee camps and detention centres is going to ensure that Hams will rise up again ever stronger with support from other similar factions in the region .
The policies of Benjamin Yetenhue are little different and much like the policies of Hitler and Stalin
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/poland/1942-07-01/hitlers-transfers-population-eastern-europe
https://news.stanford.edu/2010/09/23/naimark-stalin-genocide-092310/
https://www.history.com/news/ukrainian-famine-stalin
I am also glad to see Cowichan return and raising questions ,but also see your return and thank you for answering them, Cowichan is right to question the price Centamin is selling its gold for in Egypt as on first impressions selling gold at these prices could understandably cause some concern amongst shareholders and create unnecessary and unjustified uncertainty about the company.
But that said this forum is indeed fortunate to have you to explain that there is nothing untoward about this arrangement between the Egyptian government and Centamin who are both complying fully with Egypt's financial regulations.
Having debate on this forum and asking questions is beneficial to all concerned, so thank you once again to both of you.
Best
Tibbs
Hi Siko,
Your updates do seems like good news for Egypt.
Thank you Siko!
Tibbs
Https://www.reuters.com/business/egypt-announces-multi-billion-uae-investment-boost-forex-2024-02-23/
CAIRO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Egypt said on Friday it had signed a deal with the United Arab Emirates to develop a prime stretch of its Mediterranean coast that would bring $35 billion of investments to the indebted country over the next two months.
The deal with ADQ, the smallest of Abu Dhabi's three main sovereign investment funds, is for the development of the Ras El Hekma peninsula and could eventually attract as much as $150 billion in investments, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly told a press conference.
Such inflows would provide a huge boost to Egypt's crisis-stricken economy as it faces new pressures linked to the war in Gaza and seeks an expansion of its current IMF support programme.
The country has long struggled to attract large-scale foreign investment outside the hydrocarbons sector. In the financial year that ended in June 2023, net foreign direct investment stood at $10 billion.
Egypt's sovereign dollar bonds soared on Friday ahead of the announcement and continued their rally into the afternoon.
Longer-dated bonds enjoyed the biggest gains, with those maturing in 2031 or beyond up more than 4 cents in the dollar to trade at 65.5-73.4 cents - for most their highest level in around a year, Tradeweb data showed.
"If the financing comes through as planned, we believe this (along with an upsized IMF programme) should provide ample liquidity to cover Egypt's financing gap over the next four years," Farouk Soussa of Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Cowichan,
I understand exactly what you are saying, but are you saying that Centamin is losing because they are not selling their dollars in the black market in Egypt like some normal individuals or not getting Egyptian pounds from outside Egypt??!!
All the companies in Egypt exchange their dollars through the official channels (banks)..
You can't get many Egyptian pounds outside Egypt.. Egypt limits the max amount of cash to carry in/out of the country to 5k Egyptian pounds.. which is less than 200 dollars..
Centamin can't withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars from the bank and sell them on the black market at night in a side street!!
Are you aware that the black market in Egypt is very very illegal and whoever gets caught is sentenced to prison charged with national security crime?
Officers stand outside banks asking people coming out of the banks carrying dollars about the reason for carrying dollars in cash..
If Centamin or any company doesn't exchange their dollars officially, the government could easily ask them where they are getting Egyptian pounds from to pay their employers and expenses, and that would be a breach of contract giving Egypt a valid reason to cancel any agreement and Centamin would not have a leg to stand on..
Yes there is a black market in Egypt, but not for this type or that level.. it's mainly for individuals.. and it's not right and damages the national economy..
Also the main reason for a country to encourage investment is to attract foreign currency, not for that company to sell the foreign currency illegally!!
Emirate has just signed a contract to invest 35 billion dollars in Egypt over the next 2 yrs, so if they thought the same, they are losing over 17 billions dollars as they could exchange that amount on the black market or abroad!!
So Egypt is paying Centamin the correct price in dollars, and the dollars are getting exchanged officially like all the other companies BP, Shell, etc.... you can't fault any side for that.
By the way, welcome back:) I don't know if you heard about the Emirate huge investment contract which was signed yesterday and is one of the biggest ever .. 150 billion dollars.. expected to help to solve Egypt's foreign currency problem for the next 4 years at least.. it's good news, isn't it?
Siko
Analysts abandon bear cave for bull run,but traders stay balanced but bullish. Ernest Hoffman.
An interesting read for everyone,as it gives insite to the run up to the elections.
I personally have to smile about that headline,giving pictures in the mind of those animals escaping from a frozen cave with the bears fast asleep ,HA HA.