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Well maybe you will get your buy in ( I hope not ) There are still 277,000 net long gold contracts, which is very high. I Think each contract is 100 troy ounces so the value of the bets is $4.124Billion.
Also worth looking at Gold Nov 2020 contracts the price today is $1523 nearly $40 higher than the front month contract.
Do world events or even market conditions really justify such a gold price pull back?
Or is that those control markets have decided to knock back POG because it suits their present trading strategy?
I think £1 looks like a good re entry point
Gold price is well overdue a pull back
I think we will see $1380 region before Christmas
The opinion I posted was that of Buchanon not mine!
Although if either the manegment or Buchanon were a meal they would be described as "Bland"
There are far too many shares in circulation that are just traded by the CFD funds who have no interest in the company or the stability of the share price, trading up and down is their only interest.
The court case regarding the concession agreement has remained in limbo for over eight years and the company portfolio shows several potential new sources of gold elsewhere in Africa, although nothing seems to actually happen, apart from each quarters colorful re worked stage managed presentation when the usual analysts ring in.
So here we are the company gets by because it has been fortunate enough to be sitting on a reasonable source of gold in Egypt and the bottom line has been good despite a possibly over generous profit share agreement.
The ordinary share holders have been told to be patient and given many promises over the years that the good times are coming although they seem to be farther away then ever after recent events!
Whilst many ordinary share holders will discuss their frustrations on forums like this there very few indeed who will take the trouble to write or email the company with their concerns which is a great pity.
I only wish many more share holders would put their concerns in writing to Centamin and keep a record of any response they may receive.
The way to survive a total collapse of the economic system is to hold gold, said the Dutch National Bank (DNB) in an article published on their website.
In the note, the DNB calls the yellow metal an "anchor of trust" that is able to retain its value "even in times of crisis."
Major European stock market indexes were higher before the bell on Tuesday as investors looked onto Brexit negotiations after reports in the British press said that the European Union and the United Kingdom may have come to some "last minute compromises" on the Irish backstop ahead of London's departure from the bloc. On the geopolitical front, tensions remained high in the Middle East after Turkey continued its operation in Syria and United States announced sanctions against Ankara.
Germany's DAX increased 0.09% at 7:34 am CET while France's CAC 40 was up 0.19% at 7:30 am CET. The FTSE 100 was flat, but gained 0.03% at 7:33 am CET.
The euro was 0.04% in the green against the dollar, going for 1.10306 at 7:35 am CET while the pound rose 0.20% compared to the greenback to trade at 1.26323 at 7:36 am CET.
Breaking the News / VP
Jeremy Langford was the COO at Endeavour for a very short time. This looks a bit suspect. A bit weird that he effectively swapped roles with the ex Centamin COO Mark Morcombe who went to Endeavour? Is there a shortage of candidates in the market for this role & they just play musical chairs? Does Centamin struggle to attract any quality candidates? Looking at the track record of the likes of Catherine Farrow it does not create much confidence. Who are senior management at the mine now?
Phil and Lynne,
Worth remembering that it is not just revenue but three other things, the first you mention is the $200 rise in costs (we are no longer a low cost mine); this equals $200 rise in gold price, so a gold price of $1260 then is $1460 now for the same profit. Then we have profit share which has kicked in, and has since risen 20% from 40% to 50% so that is another $50 taking us to $1510 to be level with back then. Then production is down 15% ,so all in all price seems fair now at. PE of 13, till we see how gold price does, whether production recovers and with it costs fall back a bit again. However I am very encouraged by all the sellers on this board, as on e all the negative Centamin holders have sold we should get motoring when any of the above happen....
Phil and Lynne,
Worth remembering that it is not just revenue but Tyree other things, the first you mention is the $200 rise in costs (we are no longer a low cost mine); this equals $200 rise in gold price, so a gold price of $1260 then is $1460 now for the same profit. Then we have profit share which has kicked in, and has risen 20% from 40% to 50% so That is another $50 taking us to $1510 to be level with then. Then production is down 15% so all in all price seems fair now at. PE of 13, till we see how gold price does, whether production recovers and with it costs fall back a bit again. However I am very encouraged by all the sellers, as if all the negative Centamin has sold we should get motoring.
Should we be concerned about the report considering the standard of reporting ( shooting oneself in the foot ), in the last two - can it happen again !!
23rd October for Report.
......are 3rd quarter results this week - thanks in anticipation
Fair comments Goldgnome, but to be frank this type of reply from BuchanonPR is to e expected.
I am sure that since the events of Q1 2018 certainly most long term share holders will have their own opinions on the credibility and capabilities of the board members.
Another investor mentioned that Buchanon had stated that it was against financial regulations for retail investors in Centamin to personally contact the analysts listed on the Cey website.
Any retail investors who require analysts views on the company should go through Buchanon who will provide the information.
Had a look at some past prices. Start of this year CEY was £114.75 with a POG of $1284. This rose to 136.2 on a rising POG of $1338. Things collapsed a bit on the poorer than expected forecast for Q1 and Q2, but did seem overdone again. Looking at the revenue for 2018 of $603m we are actually only sitting $152m short of this, at end of Q3 with a current POG average for the year of $1369. This means that if POG holds at about $1500 then 100,000oz for Q4 would match last years revenue. Doesn't seem so bad! 140,000oz at $1500 would add $210m to revenue making $661m, giving a similar figure to 2017, although costs are higher for 2019. 2017 was when CEY reached 190.5 per share. AISC was $744 POG average was $1260 and production was 544,658oz. Please check my figures!!!
The read on these guys is not inspiring. Catherine F..."a different perspective...blah blah" So what?, I could get the cabby off the streets to give a different perspective. What is so special in her perspective that commnad attention and repsect? What has she done that has made a material difference to a company of the size of CEY.
The board and the spin masters need a good boot ....
Sorry, my jury is out... CEY needs to be a lot smarter in the human department. I have no problems with the orebdoy.
Wellgoodluck. Not to many gold miners I would buy, and the reasons have been exposed.
Most are technically lacking, and this sets up a lot of surirses. The differece being the CEY asset is world class, .... alot of gold deposts are not close....
Full disclosure, I've sold most of my Centamin shares and bought a different miner, experiencing a mine ramp up issue. Took an 18% loss on CEY but not happy with the management here and that's hard to fix IMO. It's a shame because it's an excellent asset with a very low AISC.
I've kept a small position here and will keep an eye on the share price and this board, hopefully could re-enter when things look better. I'd require a larger margin of safety than last time though.
Good luck to all!
European major stock market indexes were mostly lower before the opening bell on Monday as investors awaited the Queen's Speech in Westminster which is set to outline the United Kingdom government policy until the next election. Brexit will remain a key topic after the European Union is said to have asked the UK to clarify its Brexit position. Meanwhile, Germany announced it wouldn't be selling new weapons to Turkey amid its latest intervention in Syria, but Berlin is said to be prepared to allow Huawei 5G networks in Germany to avoid a dispute with China.
The DAX and the CAC 40 both lost 0.20% at 7:23 am CET. In London, the FTSE 100 was flat, increasing 0.01% at 7:24 am CET.
The euro was down 0.07% compared to the dollar, changing hands for 1.10300 at 7:39 am CET while the pound fell 0.34% against the US currency at 7:40 am CET as it went for 1.26065.
Breaking the News / VP
Sorry typo in previous post below!
Should read Buchanon should be far more 'Proactive' in promoting every piece of positive news at every opportunity !
Thank you Dasut,
So many questions that need answering, or at at least they should be providing some ongoing updates on these other projects!
Buchanon should be far more provocative in promoting every piece of positive news at every opportunity !
My knowledge of the the professional capabilities of the new Centamin board members is limited to the information given on the company website.
However your recent post inspired me to enquire about the two new appointees to the Centamin board
The official response from Buchanon
Everyone is entitled to an opinion or to speculate about comings and goings of various people. Jeremy Langford was a very successful COO at Endeavour. His track record speaks for itself. I certainly hope he will be at least as successful at Centamin but he has only really only just got going.
Re Catherine Farrow, again people’s views on what happened at TMac, are entirely up to them – however, she provides a different technical perspective in relation to the rest of the board and is a valued member of the board as a non-executive.
As far as we are aware at this time she is unlikely to be a considered a candidate to become CEO of Centamin if that is what some share holders may be thinking.
Tibbs not BF rather Cote d'Ivoire (Doropo and ABC) and another question that needs answers what has happened to Bate, BF?
Cleopatra will I hope given grades to date be a profitable addition but I agree they do need to get on with it BUT with a well planned strategy and with no negative impacts to the long term, with strong buy in from the new operational teams.
Also CEO is an issue and we do need someone of substance with previous known track record but this isn't where the production comes from it is the operational teams that make the difference providing they are given the tools and I don't envy the new team who have arrived when there are issues that are not of their making.
I would also love to see a 3D model to fully understand the impact of the early underground workings on the current pit operations, I will have to look through early presentations to see if there is anything that helps.
Hi Gnome & Dasut
Take the points about interest rates & production
As a long term investor though what concerns me is that the production side seems to be getting worse not better.
Andrew Pardey stated that communications with share holders would be improved, there is little evidence of that .
Being polite the performance of Buchanon PR is questionable and seems to have made things worse especially since Q1 2018
We are told that lessons have been learned and that the management really feel do understand the concerns of investors and feel their pain?
We were promised that production would improve towards the end of Q3 2019 and yet very recently out of the blue an RNS that the CEO is retiring and another veiled warning of a Q3 that will fall short on what was promised.
With the ongoing production and ore grade problems the Centamin share price and future is now is very much dependant upon the POG staying above $1500 and we all know how fickle and manipulated that can be.
Surely though with all the very good drill results in BF there is a substantial revision to reserves waiting to be revealed and would provide some very welcome good news at this time.
Share holders were in fact promised a BF update several times over the past 36 months, however this has never materialised.
I have very limited knowledge of gold mining technique but it seems that the Cleopatra slope development has been going on forever and yet they have little to show for all this effort and expense, I wonder does this make business sense?
After so many failures to deliver on what was promised I an sure that I am not alone in feeling let down and very disappointed about the present situation in which we find ourselves.
Gnome I agree but I don't think the 23rd October financials are going to set the world on fire. I think they are having problems in the pit not just lower than expected grades but also the higher strip ratio and they are also admitting to issues with voids as they reach early underground workings and operating with trucks running at approx 240 metric tonnes they don't want to hit a void.
What I am hoping for is high selling prices and some positive news regarding increased assets with maybe a mining start date estimate for Doropo. Definitely need some positives otherwise the SP will take another hit.