Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

I think you’re right mrtibbs.

I think the difference from what I have been told is that Mr Sawiris as an Egyptian is somewhat envious of the El Raghy Centamin Sukari agreement and he is on a personal crusade to further a personal cause and saw his influence in in Endeavour as a way to do this.
Also Endeavour are desperate and saw the Centamin cash pile as a way to solve their cash flow problems.
There is still the court case that remains on hold whilst the SCC supposedly continue to consider whether to ratify or reject Law 32, agreed this did not deter Endeavour but then then desperate situations dictate desperate actions!
So until some sanity or common sense becomes more apparent in the Egyptian judiciary and the Centamin court case remains on hold and the never ending procrastination over law 32 go on it will not encourage company like Barrick to make any serious commitment to Eygpt.
New mining laws are all very well but actually seeing them through in Egypt may well be quite different if past events are anything to go by.
So I don't share your opinion that Barrick will be champing at the bit to get involved in Egypt, certainly not until there is some definite proof in the pubbing as it were!

Hi Tiger - Whilst you still have the crystal-ball, what does it predict in terms of the price they will offer?

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
But buying Centamin is the only way to make a decisive entry into the Egyptian market and to gain first mover advantage. If Barrick believe (like I do) that a) there is still a huge amount of gold to be discovered inside the 160km2 Sukhari concession, and that b) Egypt is more or less the last unprospected frontier for gold mining, then they may be willing to compromise on their usual business model. Mark Bristow hasn't been shy about taking on risk in the past.
Anyway, having called it right about Endeavour bidding before Christmas, I'm now doubling down and calling for Barrick bidding before Easter. If I'm wrong I'll throw my crystal ball away!

Hi Dasut,
You are of the same opinion regarding both the Barrack business model and the Sukari Centamin agreement as a well informed acquaintance of mine!

Aton Resources Inc. – The CEO’s View on Mining Reform in Egypt
“I have been recently asked if I could give my views on the landmark amendments to the Mining Law and Executive Regulations, as well as my views on what remains to be done,” said Mark Campbell President and CEO. Here is my take on these changes....

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1485-tsx-venture/aan/72623-aton-resources-inc-the-ceo-s-view-on-mining-reform-in-egypt.html

The opinion of experienced mining analyst Kees Dekker
A 5% royalty is very onerous. You can equate it to 15%-20% income tax. The article is however quiet on all other fiscal regulations and without those it is difficult to come to a view about the overall tax burden.

Quite interesting really.

Bob I could be wrong but I don't think the Centamin agreement with EMRA fits with Barrick's business model and unlikely they will invest in an exploration programme in virgin sites even given some historic evidence of resources.
This said I am sure they will be closely monitoring juniors hoping to replicate Centamin's success and who have the more advantageous terms of contract. If there is a likelihood of success then you will maybe see the majors investing in the juniors in exchange for percentages in the project.
With that said I am off to find some sun and will be back in a couple of weeks.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-02-03/Gold-prices-have-formed-a-bottom-expect-the-next-rally-to-target-1-900.html
Gold prices have formed a bottom; expect the next rally to target $1,900
GLTA,
Dan

Markets not allowed to go down, China now playing the US game.

If 1563 breaks a trend change downwards could be starting to unfold.

Equities on major European stock markets were in the green during premarket trade on Tuesday in spite of the coronavirus concerns. Investors were also on the lookout for the economic data set to be released after the market open.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.75% at 7:43 am CET, while the DAX rose 0.61%. The CAC 40 increased 0.27%.

The euro was flat against the dollar to sell for 1.10617 at 7:43 am CET. The pound gained 0.13% against the greenback concurrently, going for 1.30092.

Breaking the News / MD

In AUD terms (my currency) I will get around 15c per share divi from Centamin for the 2019 year, seeing as my original cost including my 20c option exercise was AUD 23.5c my yield on cost of around 64% makes me smile.
However, when they get back to GBP 1.80 & considering the relative strength of the pound versus AUD I am definitely going to take some profit as I am sick of the inconsistency/volatility and want to reduce my exposure.
Good luck to all & here's hoping for a good year with no more slip ups :)

At current share price I believe my investment in Centamin will return approx 6% this year. However as a long term holder at well below this figure it is embarrassing to work actual s even allowing for inflation over the period of time I have held whilst compounding the divis I have reinvested in Centamin against what could have been achieved in an interest bearing account . All in a stocks and shares ISA free of tax. As I have previously predicted there would be a pull back as the short term momentum traders take their pennies profit and I had great temptation to short in line with this thought but having said never again resisted and remain satisfied with the divi. Share price fluctuations are almost an irrelevance to me but I do understand the frustrations of those in at higher levels than myself. Long term is the way to look at market investment
as I have gained in my portfolio on that basis but always lost on short term-ism.

Can Barrick afford to be out of Egypt as it must be a very attractive (in comparison to other global locations from Geo-political norms) As already mentioned here debt free shortly and free cash available late 2020 and certainly 2021. Maybe sooner if gold holds above 1550. Happy to be shot down by other more experienced board members.

Cap Ferat on the divi in June.

Bob

Sorry typos below -The markets are as crooked and bent as Trump and his puppet Boris!
RBC are the stinkers who were trying to help Endeavour get hold of Centamin on the cheap so that Endeavour could asset strip the company to cover up their flawed strategy!

The Republicans won't allow the evidence to be heard confirming the US has a "Crook" for president and so all is well with the dollar again, so it's dump safe havens & risk on!
In reality the markets care not a jot about the underlying qualities an d potential future value of of a company, all the LSE and the markets care about is churning the shares for a quick ptofit and lots of lovely trading fees!
The markets are as crooked and bent as Trump and hid ***** Boris!
Whi is going to trust RBC

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-020320202
Monday, 2/03/2020 14:24
GOLD PRICES fell from 3-week highs on Monday in London, as risk sentiment recovered – and Western stock markets rallied – despite a plunge in Chinese equities as Beijing vowed to ensure financial stability amid the fast-worsening coronavirus emergency, writes Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault.

Gold prices slipped 0.8% to $1577 per ounce as the US Dollar rose and so-called 'safe haven' currencies the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc retreated from multi-week highs.

Major Western government bond prices also slipped with gold prices, edging the yield offered by 10-year US Treasury debt up to 1.53% per annum, still one-fifth lower from the start of 2020.

Noting the 8% plunge in Shanghai's stock market – the biggest daily drop in 4 years as it reopened a day late after the Lunar New Year holidays – "Chinese markets are just catching up with the risk off moves in the past week," says Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London.

"The fact that we haven't had any more bad news over the weekend means that there is a bit of a sigh of a relief, so risk markets are faring better."

Shanghai-traded commodities from oil to copper also plunged at Monday's opening, hitting their maximum down limits despite the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cutting its short-term interest rates and pumping over $175bn of liquidity into the money market.

The Yuan meantime fell past the key 7-per-dollar level, plunging 1.2% to its weakest so far this year, and Shanghai's benchmark gold 'fix' price – launched 3 years ago – rose above ¥357 per gram, the highest level since last August's new record, but still shy of the record Yuan prices set in 2011-2012.

No problem Phil, took me some time to fathom it out albeit some time ago.

Trades shown after the close may also be large trades above NMS and be very confusing other than when you realise that the price is that struck (say at 10 am) but the market may have risen or fallen substantially by then and therefore be shown misleadingly in either the buy and sell column.
https://help.stockopedia.com/technical-guide/prices/exchange-market-size

Why are my latest trades delayed?
Most on-exchange trades are published the instant they’re executed, and most off-exchange trades are reported to the exchange and published almost immediately.

But some types of trade (both on- and off-exchange) are allowed to be published with a delay (often depending on the size of the trade), so may not be announced until minutes, hours, or even days later. Similarly, corrections or cancellations for existing trades may not appear until hours or days later.

Hope helps

Bob

as long as there’s no “negative”reason accountable to the company

Up down for no apparent reason...

Last August for no direct response to anything the share price topped the 52 week high, as long as there’s no reason accountable to the company and the stock has a buyer if gold shows good upward momentum the price will rise.

The market is not an exact reflection on the company alone, includes every aspect of the current financial climate. Stocks can’t rise solely because someone is buying them, the market would be workable resulting in nobody having to work.

Bol, it’ll come just like last August.

Hi Bob,
That is really helpful.
Thanks very much,
Phil

Barrick is soon to be a cash cow with zero debt

Maybe the poor H1 outlook is beginning to sink-in.

the point is there is no selling without buying.... How to buy if no sellers and vice versa. The CEY shares are nothing for sale from source all shares are consumed by holders. The market is completely manipulated, the manipulators looking for any chance of reasons to lower and higher any shares for their own transactions making the their day trading.

But this is my understanding unless someone explains how I can sell without buyer or vice versa .

GLTA,
Dan

3% ?

Crazy, gold is the safe haven

Hi philandlynne

It can be misleading that buys and sells are not always what they seem and indeed a buy can be asell and vice versa .
To avoid reams of typing I suggest you have a read of the following which may help understanding.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html
Large sells and buys can be even more misleading as notification to the market can be delayed for some time NMS is an expression which indicated Normal Market Size . I think in Centamin terms this is 10,000 and their are rules as to how these are treated. I am sure other experienced investors here can help or better advise you on these topics.

Bob

I think most markets are indecisive where to move. Some speculate that Coronavirus has now been factored in today's prices. Others say markets showing too many bearish signals . Personally I think there's a bearish outlook going forward.