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USA is a huge country. Some States are seriously getting into recession with serious price falls and other parts are seeing very high inflation. For example, parts of Illinois and Texas are seeing rent rises of 40-45% and Missouri in between has fallen by 39%. Oregon is highly inflationary, but parts of California are now seeing serious price falls. The data is one just number, but the FED has a major problem. One size does not fit all and to reduce very hot inflation in about 10 USA States they need to damage another 20 in deep trouble already. A number of States are seeing inflationary pressure between the extremes. How a pool of 2000 to 4000 points is used to give the figure may well be disturbed by certain areas that are undertaking work that was previously done overseas.
The FED cannot build houses, they cannot control rent prices and somehow higher rates putting up housing costs will help. They are in a stagflation trap. We have confirmation after 350 base points of hiking. Before Covid 19, USA salaries were 67% higher than the UK. It has now reached 250%. Of course, increased productivity State side may justify some of it. For someone in Eastern Europe like Latvia, USA worker for same job is around 450% higher paid. They will need to control those USA borders as young folks from all over will want to get in.
Higher than expected and core higher, hence immediate drop on gold and markets.
Yes it seems like good news. You wouldnt think Martin Horgan is the sort of man to drip information like this if there were bad news coming.
Hopefully a few more items of good news will be coming in Q3 and beyond.
Finally, something on the delivery side and it was the news on the grid which is really great as well. I suspect other reports are running late.
In the background sterling is weak and this company earns in USD. If Centamin does get cheaper, I will be adding myself partly as a currency hedge. It is not pretty seeing the BoE and UK Government unable to work together and it is the BoE who are the only adults in the room. Tony
Seems like it's been a long time coming but its great news.
Im thinking Horgan must have plenty more good news up his sleeve for the Q3 results or he would have saved this for the 20th.
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1580443727080087553?s=46&t=OClZGKrbPCiORhVbIeYm1w
SUKARI POWER UPDATE - REDUCING COSTS AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Centamin is pleased to announce the solar plant at its Sukari Gold Mine has entered the final stages of commissioning and is delivering savings ahead of expectations. Furthermore, continued progress has been made to assess the opportunity to utilise Egyptian grid power at Sukari.
SUKARI SOLAR POWER PLANT COMMISSIONING
Reduction in fuel consumption and costs
· Consistent delivery of 36MWDC (nameplate capacity), converting to 30MWAC of power since early September
· Reduction in exposure to volatile fuel pricing with commissioning saving up to 70,000 litres of diesel per day and averaging a reduction in diesel consumption of 22 million litres per annum
· Potential US$20 million in annual cost savings at current diesel prices
· Expected reduction in Scope 1 GHG emissions by 60,000 tonnes CO2 equivalent per annum and a subsequent reduction in volume of diesel trucked to site
· Full commissioning expected in Q4 2022.
EGYPTIAN GRID POWER STUDY
Potential to further reduce reliance on diesel
· Active engagement with government and independent power providers. Initial proposals to supply 30-50MWAC of grid power to Sukari have been received and an internal evaluation is underway for potential integration from 2024
· 50MWAC grid power supply creates the potential to fully displace the use of diesel for power generation at Sukari. The minimum 30MWAC grid power combined with the existing 30MWAC of solar power creates the potential to operate during daylight hours without using any diesel power generation and substantially offsets diesel consumption during night time hours
· Grid proximity to site and existing infrastructure indicate a low capital intensity
· The Egyptian grid power is generated from natural gas and a mix of renewables, such as hydro, solar and wind, creating the opportunity to further reduce Sukari's GHG emissions.
· Potential for further cost savings. Egyptian industrial grid tariffs are significantly cheaper than the cost of power generation using diesel fuel.
MARTIN HORGAN, CEO, COMMENTED: "Delivery of this critical project is instrumental to our ongoing commitment to reduce our reliance on diesel fuel, minimise greenhouse gas emissions and realising material cost-savings. The solar plant and potential to integrate grid power will contribute materially to our environmental stewardship philosophy and our strategic objective of maximising returns for all stakeholders."
Major European indexes were flat to lower in premarket trading on Thursday as investors waited for inflation reports from Germany and the United States. Geopolitical tensions also remained in focus as North Korea carried out another missile test and the West and Russia continued accusing each other of nuclear threats amid the war in Ukraine.
The FTSE 100 was flat at 7:52 am CET and the DAX lost 0.30% at the same time and the CAC 40 fell 0.37% at 8:01 am CET.
The euro traded flat against the dollar, going for 0.97014 at 7:51 am CET and the pound declined 0.14% compared to the greenback to sell for 1.10843 at 7:52 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
*This day week is October 20th, Q3 report day.
After which any undelivered Q3 promises
will, IMHO, be officially late.
My goodness the quality and knowledge on this board begges belief in 2011 i beleived tihis was going to be a big player mistake --- no big player a company for the boys-- shareholders been shafted dont be seduced by the divi no expasion outside sukari maybe a few sweetners but be carefull with your own gold
Horgan let’s assume would not be giving interviews just before releasing results one would assume if they where going to be poor so just maybe he may have some better news rather than being all talk and no action, but still have to question from the last report he promised lots of news in Q3 and nothing was delivered
September 20/2022
He explained that "Maxam" seeks to achieve a strategic partnership with "Military Production" through technology transfer, capacity building, localization of industry and investment in cooperation with the company (Factory 18 Military) to cooperate in the development of its products of emulsified crackers, casting and dynamite.
During the meeting, the two sides discussed the proposed aspects of cooperation between Abu Zaabal Company for Specialized Chemicals (Factory 18 Military) and the Spanish company "Maxam" to study the establishment of a company specialized in the production of emulsified and industrial crackers used in mineral wealth mines and cement quarries.
Full story here: https://www.elbalad.news/5448431
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Such an arrangement could lower input costs for Centamin , eventually
October 12, 2022
CENTAMIN, the UK-listed gold producer, will turn its attention to potential merger and acquisition targets after stabilising its Sukari mine in Egypt.
Martin Horgan, Centamin CEO, said his board had recently discussed the type of asset it might want to acquire in an effort to reduce operational risk and improve liquidity. “We’re ready to step onto the pitch. We’re match fit, we’re ready to go but we’re going to look carefully at the opportunities that are out there,” he said in an interview last week.
Horgan, CEO since April 2020, said there was an opportunity to improve Centamin’s rating in the UK market where options for gold investors were thin on the ground following the departure of Randgold Resources which merged with Barrick in 2019.
“You’ve got Endeavour [Mining] right at the very top of the market and then it’s us and then there’s basically the smaller companies,” he said. “So I think that right now, in this particular situation, there’s an opportunity to try and get ourselves a larger, more liquid group and cement our place as a premium-listed company.”
One of the considerations in assessing potential targets is political risk given a series of coups in West Africa’s Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso in the past two years. Horgan said however that gold shares operating in west Africa were resilient. “Mali is a failed state being ruled by Russian mercenaries and all these guys [gold miners] continue to operate almost uninterrupted and almost with no impact on their share price,” he said.
Despite this, Horgan said Centamin would be cautious.
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/51063-centamin-to-assess-ma-options-after-imposing-stability-on-egyptian-mine-sukari/
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Perhaps it's just the journos interpretation - but this interview(er) seems to put a greater emphasis on Centamin's M&A ambitions. I'd rather Centamin put a statement out to shareholders directly - instead of feeding the market tidbits of info. We are the ones funding these endeavors, lest they forget.
Reminder, tomorrow @13:30UK time.
Below forecast will show drop for the second month in a row, which will be bearish for the USD and hence good for pretty much everything, and will, until next monthly data, shift the narrative to a more dovish FED to relax tightening, end it sooner etc- the opposite will also be true alas on all fronts if data reveals increase.
This will help explain for those who are not clear on this, a 2min factual eg not a youtuber clickbater etc :
https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733
So I guess this will all be within the 20th Oct RNS?
Solar power plant commissioning - Q3 2022 (On-going)
· Capital structure review - Q3 2022
· Underground expansion study - Q3 2022
So long as they've not been investing the 20% into CEY shares lol- they'll be fine Tony.
Hopefully they are adding to the cash pile and earning interest on it.
Yep, and referring to his point on "destroying shareholder value"... well I'm hoping that's already happened!
I will be happy when we actually see significant improvement in production & costs at Sukari - Horgan is talking the talk but we have been hearing promises for 3 years which are yet to be delivered.
When & if he can deliver the long awaited results he can think about perusing the menswear department for some new pants but until then any M & A thoughts is putting the cart before the horse in my opinion especially in light of the current economic uncertainties particularly in capital markets.
Maybe just maybe we are going to see some rewards for our patience but I have reached the stage at which I will believe it when I see it :)
Major indexes in Europe declined in premarket trading on Wednesday as investors continued to focus on geopolitical tensions and awaited a string of economic data reports, including GDP data from the United Kingdom and Eurozone's industrial production.
The FTSE 100 lost 0.09 at 7:35 am CET, the DAX fell 0.26% and the CAC 40 was down 0.23% at the same time.
The euro traded flat against the dollar, going for 0.97090 at 7:37 am CET, while the pound gained 0.17% compared to the US currency to sell for 1.09857 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Happy hump y’al
11 October 2022
Mining Journal talked to Centamin chief executive Martin Horgan about the company's plans.
I think what seems to have happened is that the ASIC got into a bit of trouble. It came from almost a top-down initiative that thou shalt produce 500,000 ounces at the lowest all-in sustaining cost that can be done. And that caused the sort of operational team to have to make some hard decisions that they probably didn't quite believe in, but they had to deliver the ounces.
So that led to under stripping and underdevelopment in the underground.
Horgan said the mine has benefited from a period of investment, with production less vulnerable to disruptions thanks to increased operational flexibility. Now we have three operating working areas in the pit back into the higher grade zones on the east and west contact plus the northern areas.
We've normally got eight to 12 months of our stopes developed in front of us, so we might be mining three or four stopes any one time, but we know that the main development is there that we've got that laid out ahead of us. It just helps you sleep at night Horgan said.
The question now is where Centamin will go from here. The company already has 5.2 Moz of inferred resources at the Doropo project in Cote D'Ivoire, where a PFS is underway, with another 2.2 Moz of inferred resources at the ABC project. And the company is conducting further exploration in Egypt, where it has several greenfield licences.
Where do we go from here? Do we put on big boy pants on the wide world? Horgan said. I think we're at that inflexion point now is that we've spent two and a half years very clearly inwardly focused and getting our house in order. And I think we're now at that inflexion point is where we can stop being inward-looking, and we can actually lift our head up and look externally, and I think we're just at that point now.
But Horgan said the company was under no pressure to do further deals at short notice. We're really happy with Sukari and with the direction of travel with our exploration portfolio in Egypt. With our West African exposure, we've got plenty to do. So I don't feel pressured that we've got to go out and do some because I think you could undo the previous years of really good work by doing a really dumb M&A deal, where bankers and lawyers make a lot of money and we destroy a lot of shareholder value.
-------------------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts: I'm glad the boss is speaking in terms of 'not destroying shareholder value.' That said the most recent Centamin presentation (September) has deleted all traces of Burkina Faso assets. Doing that, without at least a RNS, is what I'd expected from the last bunch of directors - and definitely not in line with highly touted ESG (governance) dogma. Disappointing, but alas, Burkina Faso has turned into a pit of vipers so c'est la vie.
CIBC reviews gold companies and dividend estimates. Newmont could see its dividend drop to $1.25-$1.50 from the current $2.20 per share.
Ans at the moment there are many underpriced stocks in my view, and the whole market is not overpriced.
Correct Mr Bond and the board is here to challenge one another's views.
There are always winners in down turns- just after COVID dark initial days, recovery time it was tech companies, and in cost of living tough times there are always winners too- which is why "the whole market overpriced" is never possible in my view