The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Yep- I continue the same message I've been saying all year now- this is nothing like 2008, eg supply issues and not bank related/junk etc etc etc. Bets are for 75, 50 then 50/25- more dovish- inflation is certainly topping now in US, and drops too- long may it continue to the expected soft landing. Rates lag as always. Here's to a positive message, and an increase in stocks this late pm and for gold too. As normal, it's when "HE" speaks that the key movements generally happen and they happen at any point too lol- good luck all.
Not sure about the shipping relationship to recession levels.
I know that there are massive shortages of goods to sell, which may be because of lack of production in the Far East, I think if and when world production and transport increases, British retail and hopeful the economy in general will increase. Well that my take on it, but it’s built on hope as much as anything. I’m holding all my holdings for the time being. Gl
The shipping news confirms the truth. Shipping volumes and rates are falling sharply (Maersk). The global recession has arrived whatever USA stats on growth are. If the FED stays aggressive, what is now an ordinary recession that is certainly arriving becomes far deeper and longer. We shall see what they FED have to say later on.
European stock markets traded higher in Wednesday's pre-market session ahead of the release of key economic data. During the session, investors will receive the latest data on unemployment and manufacturing from Germany and the EU.
In addition, global traders will be closely monitoring the news on the US Federal Reserve's latest decision to be announced today. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
The DAX gained 0.33% at 7:15 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.33%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.14%.
The euro improved by 0.07% against the dollar at 7:18 am CET, selling for $0.98809. In comparison, the pound grew by 0.16% to go for $1.15029 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy hump y’al
The markets play games & introduce gimmicks which distract from proper investment principles.
For me & my wife we place 10% of our portfolio to gold bullion. We hold 50 oz in actual physical & another 100 oz through a fully backed government guaranteed ETF (PMGOLD on ASX).
We use an ETF as we believe the counter party risk is more than covered by the avoidance of physical buyers premium coupled with the liquidity provided by a listed trading option.
We view our bullion holdings as an insurance asset & do not expect any income from it (we do take volatility profits from trading PMGOLD) but if the do-doo hits the fan our gold will cover us in a large amount of circumstances.
I am not saying anyone should follow our strategy just putting it out there - would enjoy hearing other investment strategies as always good to take other opinions into account.
Good luck to you all & a warm woofing from the Lady Spoonington :)
October 18, 2022 – In response to increasing market demand for greater transparency in the provenance of precious metals, and to showcase its continually evolving refining capabilities, the Canadian Mint is introducing its first gold bullion coin completely sourced from a single mine. The 2022 $50 1 oz. 99.99% Pure Gold Maple Leaf Single-Sourced Mine bullion coin is entirely composed of gold extracted by Agnico Eagle at its Meliadine Mine in Nunavut (Canada) and expertly refined by the Mint, under a rigorous segregation protocol. This special gold bullion coin will soon be available through the Mint’s network of official bullion distributors.
“Precious metal investors have long trusted the Royal Canadian Mint for the market-leading purity and security of its bullion products. As an LBMA-accredited Good Delivery refiner, they can also count on us for responsibly sourcing the gold and silver we refine,” said Marie Lemay, President and CEO of the Royal Canadian Mint. “By launching a new bullion coin made of gold sourced entirely from Agnico Eagle’s Meliadine mine, we are also showing the market that we can offer bullion with the highest possible integrity, guaranteeing that it originates from a single Canadian mine.”
“Agnico Eagle is proud to be a partner of choice as a trusted source of responsibly produced gold for the Royal Canadian Mint’s first-ever single-source mined gold bullion coin,” said Ammar Al-Joundi, President and CEO of Agnico Eagle Mines.
https://www.mint.ca/en/company/media-room/2022-10-17-from-mine-to-mint-royal-canadian-mint-introduces-its-first-fully-segregated-single-mine-gold-bullion-coin
--------------------------------------->>>>
Perhaps the world's Central Banks and jewelry giants ( LVMH/ Tiffany) should step up to the plate and be among the first to ensure their bullion/gold merchandise is sourced from a mine & country that adheres to environmental, social and governance friendly policies.
Billions in dirty gold (apologies, don't know what else to call it ) entering the supply chain is in essence money laundering.
Thoughts??
- Retail investment in gold bars and coins jumped to a six-quarter high of 351t
?
- Gold ETFs saw outflows of 227t in Q3
?- Central bank buying reached a quarterly record in Q3 (nearly 400t) the eighth consecutive quarter of positive net demand
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q3-2022
All complete *******s motivated by self interest - back to boring - where the devil is Tibbs, I want someone to exchange barbs with!
As an aside & more on the CEY price my two bobs worth is hold & accumulate if you are underweight, at the end of calendar year 2023 feel free to remind me of this :)
Basel - another load of waffle that used up days of comments and airspace and did zero for SP movements.
Thanks Cowichan
Nice to see other costs and all affected.
Got to say, cany really see why gold is so cheap ounce when there is such scarcity and it takes lots of resources to mine. Another story and Basel 100!
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1587369039256494081?s=46&t=4ofto_F1xyrpNNTaQVuWxg
Thanks goldgnome, very grateful for the time you have spent in your professional explanation of this aspect of the mining industry. Very good to have your insight and input to this board. I am sure others here will feel likewise.
Regrds
Bob
The Melbourne Cup Day (dedicated to horses) increase in interest rates (dedicated tohouseholds?) was inline with expectations (except my betting was astray and I lost the lot) and means the overnight cash rate has leapt from 0.1 per cent to 2.85 per cent since early May, the fastest tightening cycle in almost 30 years! And who would be counting?
Following the shock post-budget 32-year-high inflation result, economists and financial markets upgraded their forecasts for interest rates. Investors are pricing in a cash rate peak of almost 4 per cent by July next year, while leading economists think 3.85 per cent could be on the cards. And why not?
This is well above the 3.35 per cent assumption used to underpin the economic assumptions in Dr Chalmers’ budget, suggesting employment levels and economic growth could be squeezed further than expected.
Well all bets are on the table, and there are various horses you can rule out.
"Economista fristas" (barrier nos 4, odds 6,790,240,562/1), The radical left nag, lovely looking, runs quickly, but often in the wrong direction?,
"Prince Bizmark". (barrier nos 1, odds 26,780,240,329/1), Radical right, vegan, high blood pressure, seems a bit over the top and will get over the top of any young fillY!
"Elsepeth", (barrier nos 69, odds 7,437,212,329/1)has swapped genders every second month and third race, speaks in tongues, and otherwise is good in a party.
and so on and so forth
Great to have a laugh. The alternatives are a bit depressing?
best
the gnome
European stock futures traded higher in the premarket session of Tuesday just hours ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision.
However, on the other hand, extra pressure remains over the intensity of the rate hikes on the block. Earlier, it was known that according to European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, the likelihood of a recession has increased. Besides the latter, today, European investors are ready for a fresh batch of economic data and the release of more earnings reports.
At 8:00 am CET, the German DAX gained 0.13%, while the CAC 40 added 0.31%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.61%.
The euro improved by 0.50% against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for $0.99312. In comparison, the pound grew by 0.61% to go for $1.15402 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Sukari looking at these for UG - twenty minute charge option - no emissions, less heat, faster, less maintenance, etc.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cat-mining_r1700-xe-brochure-ugcPost-6992867141494419456-D8BR
Bob
Block caving, in theory... everything caves very well according to plan. The plans are built arond rock properties, AND 3D ROCK FABRIC. Both of these are in fact poorly known in reality, which means that in reality the block caves do not go accoring to plan. When this happens one better have a very good recovery plan. You can imagine that the roof does not falling in as a single unit. But you get hangers...some are 50 to 100 meters above you...
Cave mining methods have become viable and preferred mass underground mining options where the objectives are low cost and high production rates. However, the cave mining industry has already entered into a less certain period or environment where some of the current cave mining options are already showing not to be fully suitable to achieving the envisaged low cost and high productivity objectives. This environment includes deeper and sometimes blind deposits (up to 1,400 m from surface), lower average grade deposits, harder and heterogeneous rock masses, higher stress and, in some cases, higher temperature environments. This is requiring design of greater caving block heights, demand for increased safety and productivity, and escalating mining costs (capital and operating). In addition, there is increasing shortage of technical skills, capital becoming more difficult to access, and communities desiring higher environmental standards. In this new cave mining environment, several hazards are identified that can have critical impact on safety, productivity and profitability. It is necessary, therefore, that these major hazards be acknowledged,and the likelihood of their occurrence be evaluated and minimised during the deposit investigation, mine design and planning, and operational stages of the caving process. These are not trivial issues and can have the most serious of consequences. They demand serious managerial and technical attention (Brown 2012).
... https://papers.acg.uwa.edu.au/p/1905_0.3_Flores-Gonzalez/
https://www.srk.com/en/publications/cave-mining-risks-not-necessarily-greater-but-definitely-different
Very interesting area, the future of mining large low grade underground depsoits...well the alternatives are not that great, or profitable.
good luck
the gnome
Hi goldgnome
Many thanks for your concise and insightful explanation . I visited a hard rock mine in Germany defunct zinc with 7 levels but bottom 3 flooded. It was explained that miners died due to inverted rock formation which dropped from the roof without warning. I may be wrong but does cave blocking avoid this but on a much larger scale. Keep posting these educational posts for those interested .
Regards
Bob
The genie is back in the neck of the bottle now in the US and will soon be in the main bottle, and the cork then on top. FED time Weds, and the markets expect 75, 50 then 50or25... here's hoping.
US drives whether we like it or not...
When the genie gets out of the bottle it is hard to put her back.
European data on Friday showed record inflation in Germany, France, and Italy, with figures due on Monday expected to show an all-time inflation top of 10.3 per cent for the entire eurozone.
Germany’s headline consumer price index struck an annual rate of 11.6 per cent in October, well above economists’ forecasts of 10.9 per cent. Italy’s raced to 11.9 per cent, against 9.5 per cent expected, and France’s rose to 7.1 per cent, topping forecasts for 6.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, economists said the full effect of inflation in the eurozone had not yet reached consumers and was likely to stay in double-digit territory for some time, keeping pressure on the ECB to keep raising interest rates.
“We think that the ECB focus on the likelihood of recession, the assessment of the 200 basis points of tightening so far, and the typical lag in monetary policy transmission all warrant some caution going forward,” said Fabio Bassi, chief European rates strategist at JPMorgan.
It is rather amazing to see the lift in theprice of common household items, the rising of taxes (or attempts), the incredible price rises in commodities, and energy, the freezing of salaries (been going on for a long time unless you are in IT) and the stupidity of the ruling classes in listening to the dicates of the chattering classes now amplified and distorted by social and mass media to the point of being deafening and stupifying.
We have people roaring about renewables when we do not have the metal supply from the mines (which have not been found) to make this happen, let alone make it happen according to the all in costing which has not been released. IN Oz we have sample supplies of gas, uranium, clean coal, sunlight yet we dont have access ot the gas we own (its all been privatised withthe notable exception of West Australia) and we are not allowed to develop a nuclear industry because of reasons which are not clear (depsite royal commisiosn to investigate and recomend that we do?!) - not enough work done? http://nuclearrc.sa.gov.au/app/uploads/2016/02/NFCRC-Tentative-Findings.pdf
Back onto the mines of the future for the energy of the future, apart form the fact they have not been found yet.
The latest IEA market analysis highlights the fundamental disconnect between fantasy and reality when it comes to renewable energy targets. The report concludes that the industry needs to build 50 more lithium mines, 60 more nickel mines and 17 more cobalt mines by 2030 to meet global net carbon emissions goals. All this in an environment where it is becoming increasingly problematic to develop new mines in many parts of the world
https://nabtrade.podbean.com/e/is-the-commodities-boom-here-to-stay/
Mind numbing leadership, is the new global pandemic issue (again).
New idea: Lets have a war with China?
the gnome
Bob
Block caving is defintely not exclusive to Newcrest. It has been around for a long while and is in operation by several other companies. It is the mining method of "future choice", but how well it works is someting to be very wary of.
Typically, cave mining operational costs are a tenth the cost of conventional underground mining methods. Despite the low operational cost, cave mining is highly capital intensive. This is because a large underground infrastructure platform needs to be established before production can proceed. For example, Codelco, Chile’s state-owned miner, will be investing $5.6 billion to convert the century-old Chuquicamata open pit mine into an underground project (Casey, 2019).
How well the block caving can be implimented is alrgely a function fo the ground weakness and natural break. For instance in one of the mines I worked in, it was very difficult to stop the ground from caving as it was too broken! which meant we got a lot of overbreak. In another, the bolck would not cave to design, which mean large slabs of ore could be dangerously suspeneded in the roof, requiring a lot of attention and slowness and danger.
To balance large upfront capital expenditure, the mine must have a high rate of production and tonnage per drawpoint once the mine is in operation. The Chuquicamata mine in Chile, the Resolution Copper project in Arizona, and the Grasberg caving complex in Indonesia are some of the biggest cave mining projects, targeting a production of more than 100,000 tonnes of ore per day.
While caving methods can be used with any type of commodity, the key considerations are grade distribution, geological and geotechnical characteristic of the ore body. It is the primary underground mining method used for extracting large copper or gold porphyry deposits. Considered as dense, less than 2 per cent of nearly 2 billion metric tons of ore within the Resolution Copper project is believed to be copper, making it the fourth-largest undeveloped copper deposit in the world (Philips, 2016).
Smaller orebodies can still be economically mined, if they have sufficient height and metal content to justify the capital expenditure. Northparkes in Australia, Palabora in South Africa or New Afton in Canada are successful operations with a smaller footprint and daily production.
What is often not mentioned is that the fracturing in a lot of mines, is subvertical, meaning it is undersampled by vertical drilling. This means the real fracture pattern in a block that one wants to cave is not well known, and this is a major reason of FU's and failures.
Newcrest is mining a low grade inhomogenous orebody at Cadia. Their head grades are declining, their recoveries are declining, and the mine is getting deeper. Good luck with that
https://miningdataonline.com/property/185/Cadia-Valley-Operation.aspx
https://www.ausimm.com/bulletin/bulletin-articles/what-every-mining-professional-needs-to-know-about-block-caving--t
Hi Don,
Held Newcrest through many ups and downs and came out in 2018.2019 above water.
The AISC figures currently are rather alarming and as you say copper has held them up although declining now from its peak. One aspect which I find of interest is their exploitation of block caving . which they claim is exclusive to them . Can you offer an insight on this.
Regards
Bob
In terms of cost savings the market has little to choose from - the gold industry as a whole facing the highest production costs ever
For instance in Newcrest's Q3 results:
Telfer $1,895 AISC
Lihir $1,436 AISC
Red Chris $1,766 AISC
if not for Newcrest's integrated copper production averaging out the group's costs these mines' would be screaming 'crisis'
I guess in many ways most of us must be pleased with the CEY SP considering the gold dollar price has dropped and has been predicted I guess by some BB pundits to be in the 60/70's.
Has the market, started to really change sentiment on progress/hitting targets and cost savings.
Anyway, I am looking forward to 2023/24 for a significantly higher price please
CEY is boring as batsh*t at the moment & is likely to be so for a while yet before we see any significant improvement (or another major f up).
We may as well spend some time taking the p*ss out of each other, at least it provides some amusement :)
Well Sotolo I have put up with your posts so its equal.
You telling me to be quiet ,is strange. :-)