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Hi Mr Bond,
My point was any possible takeover merger needs to be viewed with suspicion after the way Acacia shareholders were shafted by Barrick!
Fair comments Mr Bond,
But how reliable have the corporate analyst sheen so far?
In short they on site visits not one of them raised any concerns about the piling up of waste all over the site?
So why should we trust them now ?
Are we then to assume that the institutional investors are being given exclusive access to information that is denied us retail investors, so we should assume all is well?
Quite the opposite was the case in the past, what is different now?
Or possibly institutional fund managers don't really care a jot about the long term as long as there can be short term trading peaks and troughs!
Oh welcome back.
to be conductive , after insults aggresion and slanderous accusations.
Ask yourselfves why no major investors have got out.
Not through ignorance and not knowing , they spend millions on aquiring good information,independantly.
Agreed 3bear!
I suspect this is why Centamin IR are so touchy about Cowichan's questions on social media, it a pity that a few more on here don't put something in writing to Centamin, it might at least make the company realise that shareholders want honest answers, and those asking the questions wonder about the credibility of the answer, assuming they get a reply that is!
If Centamin have nothing to hide then why has the IR unit blocked the linkedin feed between Cowichan and Martin Horgan?
So how many of our members will start asking some questions in writing just as a very small number on here have been doing for a very long time!
Who Mr Tibbles did the shareholders get shafted as you put it, Centamin or Barrick.
As for your mate Cowichan ,it is hardly surprising he gets no answers from CEY.
Being openly aggressive as well as some may say to the CEO and Board ,is hardly likely
Agreed Dasut,
"Proof in the pudding !"as it were!!
Hi Dasut,
The £5 a share has been taken completely out of context because it suits some to do so, that said who knows!
Centamin share holders have been led up the garden path far too many times in the past which is why until more information on many unanswered issues or proof in the pudding they they need to be on their guard !
Remember this Acacia were £5 ish at some points and the shareholders got shafted by Barrick, I think Cowichan is right to be asking Centamin questions ,although they are rarely,if ever given a straight answer!
https://www.barrick.com/English/investors/AcaciaMining/default.aspx
Another decent day here and nice finish to the week
Just to put the record straight if you care to check back several members had quoted the Jefferies valuation but were unable for whatever reason to obtain copies of the the Jefferies note, so for members information I published the more detailed version which was circulated to institutional investors by the corporate brokers who obtain their information from the Centamin investor relations department.
Why not take your ramping allegations up with them ?
Spoonington,
Pleased to see you have recognised Mr. Tibbles for what he is. Contrary to his claim that he had seen through the previous management and was a critic of their mine plan the reality is that on 8th October 2020 days on this board, days before the issues about the open pit were revealed he was trying to ramp the share price summarising a Jefferies note which contained a target of 240p !
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/01/05/capital-limited-in-name-only/
January 5, 2023
Arguably, the customer base is more concentrated than is ideal, with around half of all revenues coming from the Centamin-operated Sukari mine and another unnamed project. However, these revenues are split across six on-site contracts, so are not as risky as they appear.
Currently, the clear majority of mine-site sales are made in Africa, where Capital is the largest independent mining services company and focuses largely on tier-one assets managed by premier mining groups including AngloGold Ashanti (US:AU), Centamin (CEY) and Barrick (US:GOLD).
These services are provided through contracts comprising a mix of management, volume-based and per-sample fees, and are typically signed for between two and five years. But Capital’s close working relationships with its mining customers mean the group always has a clear idea of long-term spending plans, and repeat awards are common. Contracts also contain provisions that help to shield Capital from the effects of cost inflation.
--------------------------------------->>>>
The article contains many more metrics but to summarize , look how transformative the Sukari contract has been to Capital's income* (Capital, whose shareholders have historically and may still include major Centamin shareholders)
year / sales* (millions $)
2019 / 115
2020 / 135
2021 / 227
2022 / 287
2023 / 322 (estimate)
------------------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts
Capital has a better understanding of their revenue from the Centamin waste contract (year over year) than Centamin shareholders know of what it costs them.
Question for anyone who might know: How many EXTRA ounces will the $260 million expedited waste clearing contract give Centamin access to?
Centamin has a robust self declared internal ROE of >25% To the best of my knowledge shareholders have not been given access to whether or not the decision to award this contract is based on meeting this revenue hurdle.
So then on what metric was the contract signed?
Inflation top and drop is just one of the many data points I've mentioned and use- there are many on my radar and as i've stated again before relationship between these at a given port in time is key - i use many and continually add and adjust .
This is just my way , a stock can only go up or down, but this has served me well over the years
ooops i mean -
I don't use charts and have several times stated this on this forum, i use economic data points and markers - charts demonstrate the past and people interpret them for rationale, chart past performance doesn't predict future
I don't use charts and have several times stated rhiannon this forum, i use economic data points and markers - charts demonstrate the past and people interpret them for rationale they performance and don't predict future
Steve follow whatever you wish, some are chartists ,many use intuition and history.
If it works for the person ,ok.
Many say its just normal profit taking,whatever floats the boat.
Dasut - like you baffled by this really significant and sustained uphill charge after months and months languishing below the 90p mark. The GP alone won't do it. Also we have a long way to go before the AISC is brought under control. The turnaround within the company doesn't seem to explain a 50% uplift since Oct 19. I have a nasty suspicious side that wonders if someone out there knows something we don't. At the risk of sparking off a load of conspiracy theories - could there be a bid in the offing ?
nothing to do with Basel or all the other spurious detail- just normal markers and data points
they follow the data points and markers like i do
Gold price back on track again ,hovering at 1860.
Seems the US Traders forget the FED Speak very rapidly these days .
Perhaps they are taking notice of Basel faulty though it may be.
Overall good for CEY, is everything gradually coming right for Centamin.
Less than two weeks to see.
I think what we really need to do is forget the unfortunate history and the old guard and look to the present and hopefully the future. Forget £5 a share because as far as I can see Centamin don't have the resource in the ground or the resources to move enough ore to produce enough ounces at a profit to get anywhere near £5.
However they have achieved just over £2 so no reason why they can't get there again but only when the waste contract is over and done with because month on month millions of dollars come off the bottom line for zero return in ounces.
Horgan says the waste contract will result in a positive return question is when, at the end of the contract or during the contract, is it already contributing with ore already exposed?
I am fascinated by the current rise in the SP, OK driven somewhat by the GP but not entirely because normally will drop when GP drops but for a week now it is holding/improving through fluctuations. Certainly not complaining and hope Centamin have been able to take advantage of the healthy GP with the most recent ounces.
Now it is so important that the year end numbers presented to us on the 19th are very good and include a set of realistic numbers for 2023, that show a step up over 2022.
You will remember Mr T? Didnt they predict 600K ounces very shortly before one of the major problems?
doubtless you've all been watching....
150 would be great. Solid moves and congrats to investors
Spoonigton,
You completely missed the point about the prediction of a £5 share price from the old Cornish miner, this wa part of a light hearted discussion on the board when we were going through some difficult times to try a raise peoples spirits, that said it's not impossible in time if Centamin is run properly as we are led to believe now!
As a matter of interest the knowledge gained in the Cornish mining industry and the expertise of the mining professionals has been drawn upon all over the world, indeed there isn't anything the Cornish industry doesn't know about mining , especially underground,!
Pardy might have done well to take a few lessons from them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camborne_School_of_Mines
In 2018 the sole underground LHDR running on limits had suffered a critical breakdown with no spare parts or contingency plan resulting in another guidance cut RNS 3 weeks after predicting record output!
So I called Centamin representatives Buchanan and asked how this could have occurred,, the Buchanan representative said that as underground mining wasn't usually done in Eygpt there was limited operational knowledge, Pardey also tried to down play the importance of the contribution of the underground production and the fact that the underground access & egress was severely limited at that time!
Yet as has now been acknowledged by Martin Horgan & indeed mining analyst Kees Dekker the underground grades are of paramount importance to support the poorer open pit grades!
From 2015 0nwards the Sukari management including the unfit for post Sukaru general manager were glossing over the fact that guidance was being achieved by high grading and that they were allowing the accumulation of waste ore, At the same time Pardey and Youssef were making what they knew were were unachievable and unsustainable guidance forecasts in the Egyptian and market media, this is surely spoofing in order fool the market and shareholders!
So I stand by my opinions because they are supported by the evidence of the dire state of the company and the subsequent events, I have posted the links to the relevant reposts and media releases on here recently.
Where is your evidence to the contrary?