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Cholly, we aren't suffering overly cold as now live in the west country but very wet and windy, envious of your warm weather again great to hear from you stay safe.
Re de Montessus, the liquidity remains on the TSX rather than London for EDV, so likely the reason he traded on the TZX.
Burkina remains a very volatile and somewhat and a lawless part of West Africa which is very sad for the Burkinabis, although that might not be his reason for selling....he probably has had very few chances to sell in view of all the acquisitions they have made which has barred him from trading.
Although it will be interesting to see how those acquisitions bed down and how production goes, Endeavour have really been on a supermarket sweep and no doubt one or two of the mines are probably not as good as they may have first thought!
Cowichan I have no idea if $600 million is an awful lot of money in the context of Endeavours new mine as I have no idea what is included in the contract and also the duration of the contract.
What will the costs be at Doropo are we talking upfront costs, life of mine costs, cost per ounce, mining costs, costs per ounce, annual costs? Having not had the opportunity to discuss or see the mine plan any numbers would be pure supposition.
At the risk of being accused of "Ramping" by others this positive look forward was offered to me last week by someone with very close ties to the company.
"The message is getting through to the market after a few very tough years, there is light at the end of what feels like quite a long tunnel but, as explained by Martin the plan has always been to get Sukari producing c.500k Oz per annum consistently from 2024 onwards, and importantly at lower costs and now the main bulk of the capex is now behind us , the gold price being strong is a also good bonus!
Tibbs
Tibbs - no worries.
Dasut - thank you for your wishes, family all great thanks, mother currently visiting down under from blighty… enjoying some warm weather, hope you and yours are keeping well.
Let’s see what materialised on the 19th and beyond
Good to hear from you Cholly happy new year to you and your family I have recently struggled with posting and found if I hit the back arrow and then the forward arrow the post reappears.
Agree with your post and would say to Cowichan improvements to the bottom line by any mining company is a success given what is going on in the world and currently would rather not debate what is felt might happen.
Let's wait until the 19th to hear what the guys on the ground and the board say what their achievable goals and forecasts are for 2023.
We would all like to see more but we have seen in the past what happens when overly ambitious forecasts aren't met and consistency and market credibility must be the goal for 2023.
Hi Cholly,
Thank you for your most informative post!
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for the explanation,
I would have thought the analysts might have questioned the wall inclination angle, but there you go, so take your experienced opinion, just after the near collapse I asked an experienced mining analyst for their opinion, part of their response is below.
"About being able to see a pit wall collapse is imminent, yes it is often apparent before hand when listric faults become apparent at surface close to the pit wall.
I wrote “often”, but it may well have been totally sudden!".
"So It will be hard to prove otherwise if mine staff keep quiet about this"
Seems to confirm both your and Mar Bonds opinions.
Tibbs
Hi Razor's,
Happy New Year to you and thank you for all you haver done in supporting others!
Best
Tibbs
Happy new year all.
Holder since 2004, early days of military lands - challenges to explosive licenses - Aussie exploration drill contractors and mine staff evicted from site multiple times.. wrote a long post earlier which evaporated… so may not have the patient to rewrite…
Having met the el Raghy family a number times at site, Cairo and Alexandria I hold them in high regard.. exploring, permitting, building and establishing a Gold mine to produce in the region of 500k is No mean feat in any jurisdiction.. let alone Egypt and on such a time of political and social change
My 2023 outlook:
Positive - reducing AISC - full year of power mix utilising solar, acknowledging power mix required - mill etc, full year of optimised payload truck bodies, reducing waste to ore strip ratio, reallocation of additional fleet from pure muck shifting to regular mining and associated more normalised strip ratio’s, consistent leadership approach that so far have resisted the temptations of adrenaline shot type results.
Development of other Centamin Assets - PFS conclusions and ideally BFS completion supporting investment.. at a stretch maybe line of sight to construction or even commence early construction phase very late 2023, visibility of timelines for development of other mines in Egypt - bolstering the hard rock mining industry in Egypt, coupled with an in region refinery should all help ref Court Case etc.
Not so positive - if leadership changes or they are pressured into adrenaline shot results, acquisition at sub £2 in my view short changes everyone apart from the buyer, further geological incident, unplanned wall movements, UG challenges - this mining game is no an exact science and very easy to commentate from the armchair / side lines especially retrospectively…
I am going to post this- before it goes south again.. probably a problem in the seat - ha ha, apologies if I have errors or not wholly explained my view - all the best anyway… we don’t know we are alive unless we are on the edge…. And if we are not on the edge we are taking up too much space - said in jest and to raise a smile - Good Luck all 2023 in my view a very strong year for Centamin - and us
Dividends shine as gold stays strong
Centamin is another dividend paying gold miner. Based in Egypt, the company has grown from a cash-strapped exploration business in the 1990s to a fully-fledged, profitable producer today, generating more than 400,000 ounces of gold each year.
Midas recommended the shares in 2015, when the price was 62p.
Today, the stock is £1.26 and should deliver attractive rewards over the next few years.
Recent times have been hard for this business. Annual production exceeded 500,000 ounces in 2016 and 2017, but output fell as the company faced operational and production issues.
New management came in during 2020 and the group then embarked on a serious investment programme at both of its mines, open pit and underground. The shares, which had climbed to more than £2.30 in 2020, plummeted to below 80p last year amid concerns that the company would deliver little or no growth as the business regrouped under new boss Martin Horgan.
Today, the outlook seems much brighter. Horgan has a history of success in the gold mining industry, he has addressed investment challenges head on and the results should steadily improve over time.
The company is targeting sustained annual production of 500,000 ounces or more from 2024 and costs are expected to fall as big investment programmes come to an end and canny decisions make their mark, including the use of solar power to cut energy bills.
Even as Centamin has experienced operational turbulence, dividend payments have continued, with 5 cents expected for the year just ended, the same again forecast for 2023 and the chances of higher payouts thereafter.
MIDAS VERDICT: Investors who bought in 2015 have doubled their money and received a decent stream of dividends too. They may now choose to sell some stock and bank profits while the gold price is high. Long-term holders may prefer to keep the faith, however. Horgan is a shrewd operator, gold is a handy addition to any portfolio and this business should gain ground in the coming years, handing out dividends all the while.
Traded on: Main market Ticker: CEY Contact: centamin.com or 01534 828700.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-11609587/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Caledonia-Mining-treasure-trail.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
In regards to the last few posts, who among us isn't choosing to believe management is keeping us informed - otherwise wouldn't we be invested elsewhere?
The reality is too often it's only when the bad news is no longer deniable that shareholders are informed.
On that note I'd like to know what Centamin LTH's are expecting in terms of 2023 performance.
An AISC of $ 1500 or above?
Production of 450-500k ?
If that is all that can be expected isn't management setting the bar quite low?
Also, Doropo - what do LTH's expect the costs will be?
Endeavour just awarded mining firm Mota-Engil a $600 million contract to carry out production at its recently approved Lafigué mine in Cote D'Ivoire which will have similar volumes as Doropo. That's an incredible sum and will be challenging to bring value to shareholders if its actual metrics don't fall into line with projections.
https://im-mining.com/2022/12/13/mota-engil-seals-endeavour-mining-lafigue-gold-project-contract/
Whatever happens with Doropo, Centamin still has prime Egyptian real estate to explore. I however do not like the fact that it's been 18 months since the concessions were awarded and we are still no further ahead in knowing what the final exploitation terms will be. Who is going to spend $ drilling in Egypt with uncertainties like this hanging over the industry?
As a shareholder I chose to believe in good faith the company brokers analysts opinions or give them the benefit of doubt hoping that lessons had really been learned and that they surely must now be running the operation as it should have been in preference to the view of an highly experienced independent analyst.
Tibbs, its not ramping allegations. It is the fact that you were being very bullish about the share at the time that you claim you foresaw the issue in the open pit, which led to a material fall in the share price within a matter of days. It s clear that no one should place any weight on the comments you make on this board.
Hi Mr Bond,
Thank you for giving us the benefit of your professional experience regarding he explanation of the pit wall inclination.
This confirms the opinion of Kees Dekker as a possible contributory factor to the potential wall
collapse.
I believe that if the only analyst who has called it right in two critical articles of 2015 & 2018 on Sukari were invited to have free rein to produce a present day report on Sukari if it were positive it would be a great way to promote market and investor confidence!
I am not that baffled.
I think CEY has been undervalued, for reasons we have discussed ad nauseum, over prpmotion and essentially for underperformance,
Now there is another story emering, and it is tending tobe understaing and consitent performance with an emerging potential for outperformance.
The reserve / resource positioning is excellent. I am waiting to see how many of the Doropo Inf ounces convert to M and I resources and to reserve ounces. Gut feeling there classification is on the conservative side. Met seems v straight forward. Gut feeling there are more Resources to be found. Great posiiton to be in.
ABC is the dark horse, but at 2.2 M ozs, this is ore than interesting. Early stage. Great macro address, and clearly there is a large gold system operating.
The AISC cost rise is a strong function of energy costs (which will go down), and they are positoning themselves very well with the Solar Farm. Look forward to the $20m annual saving here. My bet is the energy costs will go down, as the Ukraine - Russia conflict ends, and sanity returns. So they can double down on energy. I think the approaches that CEY is making onlocal labour, local mngt is excellent. The overall approach of CEY gives me confidence in their management and their ability to control/manage cost...impressive in these times.
I like the way the underground resources are building, and a 10 year mine life is very doable, and again conservative. I will not be surprised to see a 20 year mine life, but drilling it out up front now is not that smart use of capital. I think the ounces will be found, but lets do this when we need these ounces to be firmed up.
The social license to operate in Egypt is very strong, the employment of local staff, the upskilling programs, the royalty payments etc are very significant...I would imagine CEY's presence and policies in Egypt are more popular than the governments, LOL. CEY delivers, and is delivering sustainably, and it now looks like on a generational scale.
Happy to sit this out, no surprised the SP of CEY is rising, wuality cash producunginvetsments are few in these times.
If anyone loves conistsent big hitting in cricket, you will enjoy this link. I was glad I was not a bowler or fieldsman on either side!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQEeDeUwZLo
best
the Gnome
(If anyone can bat, can they please come to Sydeny and give the South Africans a hand!?)
Pardon me ,they increased the angle of the Eastern Face wall making it unstable and liable to rock fall.
My point being ,the waste was in the stolen angle ,so not obvious for outsiders to perceive.
In other words they got greedy with I assume the eastern face making it liable to diastorous rock falls.
To understand open pit wall or faces,.
Which are no more than 45 Degrees,
Take a piece of graph paper and draw an inverted triangle with angles of no more than 45 degrees.
Then calculate the maximum depth it is possible to go with space at the bottom to manoever rock trucks with safety in mind.
Assume the measurement of the largest side which is of course the highest level to be a mile.
Then it is simple to calculate the maximum depth.
You will be surprised.
Sébastien de Montessus disposes 150,000 shares $ 4,066,500.00 11 November 2022
Interestingly, he sold in Toronto vs London
To support the share price Endeavour has been buying back shares for cancellation weekly all throughout 2022
Having much of its production in Burkina Faso who knows better than Mr Montessus whether meeting forecast production will be challenging
Also, Endeavour's pure M&A production growth strategy may be proving untenable
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/endeavour_mining/rns/regulatory-story.aspx
My T, on another note to jam whereabouts in Cornwall are you if you don’t mind saying
Tibbs you need to understand that it isn't as easy as taking a trip around the pit in a 4 wheel drive vehicle and seeing large waste dumps with trucks driving through chicanes. If you look at what and where Capital are working which I understand is the East Wall it is all about making the pit larger by widening/expanding the area to be mined.
The analysts wouldn't have seen the problems that would come back to bite us but it should have been clear to the then production team/ pit bosses that they were effectively driving into a cul de sac (apologies for the simple analogy for the miners amongst us).
Hi Paul ,
Yes see below, part of an earlier post to Spoon.
Glad that you are OK and that the jam was a success!
Any extra profit made by high grading and some has now been more than lost and we are paying to put things right!extra profit has now been lost
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/30602/Sukari-to-produce-600-000-ounces-of-gold-in-2018
Not to mention the many millions of dollars spent for no return (albeit a nice little earner for the drilling contractor ) for no return!
CEO Martin Horgan told Mining Journal that Sukari “couldn't deliver a bloody pizza” over the past few years !
But Cowichan isn't the only shareholder asking questions, not all are by social media and they are certainly not asked in an aggressive manner.