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The die is cast.
GLA, whatever your position.
:-).
OK you have to realise Horgan is a Mining Engineer not a public speaker also he is used to addressing people in the Industry and I don't have any problem understanding or following what he is saying and like his enthusiasm.
I once attended a mining presentation and soon understood that they talk a different language to the guys that up until then I dealt with like Civil Engineers, muck shifters and Plant Hire types.
Miners believe it or not are far more detailed and cover the whole gambit and from the mining presentation it became obvious that I needed as least one mining engineer on my team and never looked back.
I also attended a presentation where they employed an actor to deliver the presentation and to be honest it lost the passion and fortunately I was told that the presenter was an actor after the presentation because I was far from impressed. The reason for the actor was because the author of the presentation wasn't confident in presenting to the people in that specific audience as it consisted of politicians, dignitaries, bankers and also government consultants. The presenter didn't answer any questions and passed questions to other members of the team.
They were successful with the project and most of the audience went away happy so guess it is horses for courses.
I'm right in thinking that Centamin have the chance to buy the trucks that have been used for the clear up ?
Well said Paul,
i do apologise I misspelt your name in my previous reply to you!
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
I fully appreciate that in effect over the past 4 years we have been paying a heavy price the processes the previous management should have been doing out as a matter of course, although unless i misunderstand had the these waste clearance procedures been carried out as part of the day to day operation as they should have been it would have been much easier at that time and far less expensive than doing it over the past four years.
Paul is correct I did post that Martin Horgan really had only one option to do whatever needed to be done it the objective was to make the Sukari operation safe and commercially viable.
Martin Horgan hasn't upset me, although his presentations irritate me, he is is obviously highly experienced and competent in running a commercial mine, however that said unfortunately his presentations are always far to rushed, Martin rattles through a huge range of issues at such speed that their is'nt enough time for the audience to adsorb the facts and so the presentation loses much of its intended purpose.
If only Martin would just slow down and pause at times, he would be far more convincing, pauses serve critical functions for both the speaker and the audience during a presentation
For the speaker, a brief pauses allow time to breathe, to emphasize key points, transition between ideas which can prevent rambling and importantly for the audience the pauses provide time to digest information and understand non verbal cues from the speaker.
If only Martin would get into the habit of slowing down a little and making some pauses his presentations would be more convincing and have far more impact!
You did quote 2.3 year pay back, I just though it wise to allow for any unforeseen expenditure etc.
I really do hope that Martin Horgan and his team prove that they are in a different league to the Pardey & Co, lets hope they prove it and deliver
That seems a pretty fair summing up to me. Given the situation when e took over, he seems to have been getting things put into place that need too be and should have been before e took over. I think MR T ? put up a post over a year ago where someone had said that Horgan was doing what needed to be done?
I think you are right that the time to judge is coming soon. With the waste contact coming to an end, hopefully AISC will be at the lower end of the the estimated figures for the coming year and the POG will hold at these levels. IF that happens we should get a decent dividend.
What will it take for that and a good rise in the share price? Well when we were up in the £2's , I think they had around £350 million in the bank? If they got anywhere near that figure, the share should be flying as Horgan has made the mine a properly working mine and not a short term, high grading , Ponzi scheme.
Tibbs I didn't say that I have an aversion to Cut and Paste what I said is I re read the Doropo 2023 Technical Report and the cut and paste message is basically all covered in this report.
You keep on making reference to things that happened prior to 4 years ago. Tell me what Horgan has done to upset you not what the previous twits did.
Like you I am equally p....d off with the blind alley that Horgan and his team found themselves in when a relatively minor mining occurrence of some unstable ground occurred, if it hadn't been noticed and a slip occurred then this would/could have been a serious mining issue. This minor occurrence turned into a major issue because there was nowhere else to go.
Had Horgan had time to layout and present a plan to get back to basics then I am sure the impact on the SP wouldn't have been anywhere near as dramatic, but regardless of the earth moving I am sure he was already putting plans in motion because decisions were made quickly and more contractors than just Capital had been asked to provide numbers relating to a major waste removal project.
Yes he has spent a fortune but the fortune he has spent is what should have been spent by the previous twits .
The time to judge Horgan and his team is fast approaching when the Capex is to be reduced considerably in the line of catch up. Planned Capex is still important however as equipment gets older, further developing cost savings relating to power sees a return so positive to improving the bottom line. Exploration into new resources is also important as all businesses need to grow their saleable assets.
All new developments relating to mining come with high risk and Doropo is no different. Little Sukari sounds promising but unless someone has previous knowledge of the potential very little will be seen by the way of ounces for several years, and time is a risk in itself.
I am not having a go at you I am just trying to take the emotion out of the discussion and ask what numbers don't you like or understand and the said pay back isn't 3 years it is 2.3 years.
Steve what we don’t know is the dividend. What we do know is the new management pay out a much smaller proportion of profit so divi has been steadily falling. Interim was down to 2c. Will the final tomorrow be 2.5% as last year, or up on your improved figures or down again, the latter two likely to affect the share price at least immediately (look how fast Hoc bounced back and more, from a quick tumble after no dividend at all yet again as the story is good.
Any chance we can have a COB SP guess for CEY tomorrow?
Likely to not do a lot today as we await the FED interest rate decision at 18:00UK Time.
We all know it will remain unchanged, but as always it's the commentary that counts.
This year, so far has remained broadly risk on- with some assets dropping off slightly last week or so on FED data markers showing marginally sticker inflation drop for now, although inflation trend down couple with strong other economic data and markets reflecting this.
Unfortunately or fortunately(if you like risk), this speech and decision doubles up with Y/E results here. As normal, we all know the the amount of gold mined and AISC for 2023 and so on quarter by quarter, but does anyone know anything outside these reports that could help in tomorrow's prediction of SP outside of the FED and ensuing potential gold re-action?
From a quick check on the the 2022/2023 (last year's report comparison) to the 4q's published this year- it's good reading (my values are approx and please challenge):
MINED: increase of ~3.5%
REVENUE GENERATED: increase of ~13.3%
CAPEX SPENT: decrease of ~28%
AISC: decrease of 13%
GOLD PRICE released average: +8%
Of course on the SP we never know what is priced in or out, but will there be any other "unexpected costs" and/or issues highlighted?
Please comment- more useful if any "known" or suspected is backed up with a source.
hi pal
good suggestion, i usually put the dates on my posts and the links, but your suggestion is excellent.
i don't plan listening in to the march 21st results but will await and see the media and market reaction over the following few days and then decide whether or not to listen to the actual recording.
like a number of other investors i see on a regular basis i remain cautiously optimistic about the approaching update, although i have a niggling feeling that it will more likely be a case of martin horgan running through a well rehe****d piece of sales spin of good times coming, but not quite yet for whatever reason, hope i'm mistaken of course!
i have long given up any hope of wearing the golden flip flops, most likely it's aldi plastic flip flops for now!
tibbs
off topic paul, but i thought but this may interest you, hope you are still enjoying your smallholding!
https://home.38degrees.org.uk/2023/02/07/seeds-for-bees-frequently-asked-questions/
https://justbeehoney.co.uk/products/free-bee-saving-seeds
Just an idea.
If anyone is going to cut and paste stuff from years ago, that they put "HISTORIC" at the start of their message. That way it wont confuse people that it is new information.
Just an idea :-)
Major European stock indexes traded mixed in premarket on Wednesday as investors focused on the upcoming reports on German producer prices, British inflation, and European Union construction output. In business, BioNTech SE is expected to release its fourth-quarter financial results later in the day.
The DAX added 0.11% at 8:00 am CET, while the FTSE 100 was flat. At the same time, the CAC 40 dropped 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.26%.
Both the euro traded flat against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.08695. At the same time, the pound fell 0.07% compared to the greenback to go for $1.27126.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JJ
Happy hump y’al
Gold currently $2157.22
Centamin’s 2023 Full Year Results due tomorrow
🤙
A team of marine experts are set to start a treasure hunt for the most valuable shipwreck in history, which sank 400 years ago with £4 billion worth of gold on board. The Merchant Royal, a 17th-century English treasure ship known as "the El Dorado of the seas", sank near the Isles of Scilly in 1641 while carrying treasure from Mexico.
In 2019, a huge anchor was found off the coast of Cornwall, believed to be from the Merchant Royal. Now, a team from Cornish company Multibeam Services are joining forces with former local fishermen to find the wreck and its treasure.
They're starting their mission in April and believe they'll be the ones to find it using unmanned underwater vessels and new sonar tech. They plan to spend all of 2024 searching for the wreck in a 200 square mile area of the English Channel.
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/experts-launch-hunt-lost-treasure-9175019
Hi Dasut,
I hadn't realised your aversion to cutting and pasting informati , if you care to think back there wasn't any sensitivity or aversion to cut and pastes of all manner of information from fellow members whilst the court case and other manner of unforeseen troubles had befallen Centamin.
Possibly its also worth taking into account that not all shareholders consult the detailed and possibly daunting reports to the less experienced eye on the Centamin home page and find it useful to be able to dip into the most relevant parts via an internet chat forum.
I am a a loss as to how else I could share the email replies of the emails I received other than cutting and pasting.
l understand that this is a Centamin forum, but my point was retail shareholders are in the main treated with scant regard by the vast majority company CEO's and BOD and all too often presented with slick PR presentations predicting fantastic returns to reel them but that that all too often fail to deliver!
I am unable to share your confidence that Centamin is being entirely transparent to retail investors, from past experience I see every reason to remain cautiously sceptical for the time being.
Whilst Centamin has gone through hugely expensive four year reset, as yet we are yet to see some proof in the pudding as it were , I am still wondering will the March update delight or disappoint ,that is the burning question.
As I have expressed in the past and as you are no doubt aware there are many other market factors and certainly now more than ever worldwide political uncertainties and policies of aggression meaning that even what may be perceived as reliable stable or safe West African jurisdictions might well become quite different very rapidly.
I am sure that I am not alone in hoping that these initial Doropo exploration reports turn out to be reliable and you are right about the payback time and the commercial viability,
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
-Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP, for example, driven by a failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures or a material slowdown in GDP growth
-Structural Features: Renewed deterioration in political stability or aggravation of security incidents, for example, a flare-up of political violence
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-cote-d-ivoire-at-bb-outlook-stable-02-02-2024
SP Comfortably now above £1
Tibbs yes thanks as I have said I recently re read the 2023 Technical Report so there is nothing new in your cut and paste. The good thing about Cote D'Ivoire other than they speak French is that there is as I have said many times considerable experience in mining. Far more than was/is in Egypt especially if you take in additional people who will inevitably be looking for work from Mali and Burkina. It is common place in West Africa because of ECOWAS to have experienced migrant workers filling important roles. I am not talking people sitting behind desks because they will mainly be from cooler climates the important people are the guys on the ground this is where things actually get done.
From what I can see other than the resource being split over a number of areas it is a straight forward open pit operation that can be done by a local contractor or from what I am hearing maybe owner mining. If the later then they must be confident of how straight forward the resource is to manage.
I know what you are saying about the market in general but this is a Centamin discussion board and we were making reference to what is going on at Centamin.
As for putting share certificates in a drawer and forgetting about them you certainly don't do that if you are investing in mining.
Hi 3bear,
To be honest I don't see either as being low risk, but I think Egypt has less risk of insurgency, although the economy is in a mess and the political suppression isn't good!
I'm still not convinced about Doropo pay back time, too many unknown factors!
Tibbs - it may be that Cote D'Ivoire is politically and financially more stable than Egypt at the minute, does that affect your view?
Cont-
The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari,
, with deposit grades ranging from ~1.0g/t to 1.7g/t, depending on the way the pit optimisation were run it will have generated open pit shells from those deposits (albeit using updated drilling data from the PFS). The grade dispersion will vary with the geology and the drilling information/density. As such, portions of those pits will be at lower grades and in the Inferred Resource category.
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
My remarks on lies and innuendo weren't specifically at Centamin but on the way the whole stock market industry operates.
Doropo
I,m not at all convinced that this area is politically stable or will remain free from some sort of incursion from rebel groups .
As to the reports I remain suspicious that the projects will turn out to be more expensive than is being estimated and although a three year payback is envisioned and would be ideal the reality of that remains to be seen.
You may find this information from Centamin of interest-
In response to your first email around the purpose of the update.
• Earlier in the year we had committed to updating the market on the Doropo pre-feasibility study ("PFS"), the announcement was following through on that with an update of the various work streams and their various stages of completion.
• The update also enabled us to communicate the following:
o Firstly, that we had identified an opportunity to make significant capital and operating cost savings within the processing circuit.
o Secondly that in pursuing this opportunity publication of the PFS was being deferred until we had completed the necessary test work to evaluate the cost saving opportunity, to ensure we published the most comprehensive PFS based on available data.
• Finally, the update was also necessary to communicate the updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”), which demonstrated a significant improvement in grade from the preliminary economic assessment ("PEA")
As mentioned in the recent full year results, we look forward to publishing the results of the completed PFS in June this year.
In response to the second
The grades in the MRE update are correct. The data was prepared by and under the supervision of the Group Qualified Persons, Howard Bills, Group Exploration Manager, Craig Barker, Group Mineral Resource Manager, and Mike Millad, the independent Qualified Person from Cube Consulting Pty Ltd. All are geoscientists who fulfil the requirements of being a "Qualified Person(s)" under the CIM Definition Standards.
In the June 2021, we published the PEA MRE and in November 2022 we published an update. Historically the Inferred Resource grade was at 1.13g/t, and this was updated to 1.14g/t. Previously the Mineral Resources were unconstrained (at any gold price, which is not unusual for an early stage study). When we published the November 2023 update, the Mineral Resources were constrained within US$2,000/oz open pit shells to outline the scale of the Mineral Resource that has the potential to become economically viable to extract at our reserve evaluation gold price of US1450/oz. This is a more rigorous approach involving the application of the Reasonable Prospects for Eventual Economic Extraction ("RPEEE") criterion reflected in most current reporting codes. The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari
Hi Razor's,
The Blackrock increase is on a CFD basis, so on leverage , no long term commitment to Centamin , Blackrock have no morals or integrity, they would trade in anthrax or nuclear waste if they thought they could make a quick profit!
Tibbs I am not a trader and yes looking back at history certainly has it's merits if done in the relatively short term.
As such Centamin provides very useful data on their Interactive Analyst spreadsheets, which allows us to see what impact certain positive and negative issues have had on production.
This helps me as an investor to look at the underlying numbers and trends.
Contrary to lies and innuendos I find Centamin in the last few years to be transparent to investors.
Also I have again read through the 2023 Technical Report for Doropo and see this prospect as a positive especially an estimated 2.3 year pay back.
So other than your worries relating to security what are your areas of concern?
Marginal increases Cey holding
Marginal increases Cey holding