We chatted to IronRidge Resources' CEO Vincent Mascolo who explains why the company has become a lithium explorer. Watch the video here.
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I partly agree, however the share price should, in theory reflect all known knowledge at that point about the future of the company. Given the change in ratios of the share with EMRA was already known it should have theory been accounted for.
On a separate note it is good to see us blue again this morning, dare we hope that we are clear of the sticky 164 you mentioned?
another thing worth remembering is that since Cey was 190p this week three years ago, we now be pay 50% to Emra (from May) however gold price rise has made up for that so should get there again, however it is why when people compare the stock price at different gold values they think it now much too low
European equities plunged in premarket trade on Friday after it was reported a potential coronavirus treatment has failed in its first randomized clinical trial. The antiviral drug remdesivir developed bi Gilead Sciences failed to improve the conditions of 158 patients carrying the virus in a Chinese trial. Gilead said the trial was terminated early.
Meanwhile, investors await more economic data, including retail sales figures for the UK and a report on Germany's business climate.
The DAX dropped 1.98% at 7:30 am CET, while the FTSE 100 fell 1.48%. At the same time, the euro declined 0.09% against the dollar, buying 1.07687.
Breaking the News / JC
Interesting, I had not realised that. We certainly have the wind behind us although it is taking gold at over $1725 and all time record highs in euros and GBP to get us here. If gold slips we are likely to slip. If gold rises...
I also take great comfort from the analysts musings that Tibbs has kindly poster. Both Numis and Berenberg refer to Cey's past failures in forecasting and that continuing to prove, as in Q1 than they can once again do it right, will lead to a rerating. I also think they are both being conservative in their estimates of full year production. Provided coronavirus doesn't through a spanner in the works then I would expect the top end of 540 to be easily exceeded.
Guess you are glad you bought back in a couple of days ago (with you extra 79 shares in the bargain).
We have hit an interesting point today 164p are the highs of 7th Jan and 6th May 2018 that we have failed to take out since; if we can hold above here next stop our all time high
Thursday, 4/23/2020 14:12
GOLD PRICES set new all-time highs for Euro and British Pound investors on Thursday morning, reaching fresh 7-year highs in US Dollar terms as worsening economic data amid the global Virus Crisis' shutdowns saw world stock markets struggle to extend their rally.
With gold hitting $1720 per Troy ounce as New York trading began, latest jobless benefit claims data today said another 4 million US citizens filed for unemployment last week, taking the total since the Virus Crisis hit North America a month ago to more than 26m so far and erasing the entire recovery from the global financial crisis of 2007-2011.
"Though China's GDP shrank 6.8% in the first quarter," claims Beijing's state news agency Xinhua, "[the] unemployment rate, resident income and electricity consumption indicate a robust Chinese economy... bent, not broken."
Experts doubt those official figures however, the Financial Times reports, with economist Zhuang Bo at research agency T.S.Lombard saying the real jobless count in the world's most populous nation (and No.2 economy) "could be more than double the official number" of 23 million.
"Job positions may fall another 10-15% without policy intervention," adds Professor Lu Hai at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management.
With Germany the largest economy in world No.2 economic bloc the Eurozone, IHS Markit's flash survey results for its output in April meantime showed another record collapse today, following March's plunge to 35 from 50 – which already signalled zero growth a month earlier – down to just 17.
Euro gold prices today rose above €1600 per ounce, setting fresh all-time highs while the 19-nation currency union's equity markets held little changed.
UK commercial banks have so far agreed fewer than half of applications for emergency funds made under the government's Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS).
"Many small firms have told the BBC they require quick access to cash in order to survive," says the state broadcaster.
But shares in UK housebuilder Taylor Wimpey however jumped over 11.4% – now rallying by one-half from early April's 6.5-year low – after it said "remobilisation" will begin on 4 May, with the majority of its mothballed projects reopening across England and Wales but keeping "compliance with strict social distancing requirements."
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce today broke above £1400 for the first time in history, rising more than 22.1% from New Year's Eve and outpacing the gain for US Dollar or Euro investors, up 18.3% and 13.8% respectively.
With UK government borrowing already rising by nearly one-quarter in the 12 months to end-March from the year before, Whitehall's 2020/21 deficit is likely to hit a "colossal" £260bn (US$320bn) according to one think-tank – some 12.4% of last year's total economic output.
Strong start to the year
? The first half of this year is an important period for Centamin, with steady
operational delivery around guidance being required to rebuild investor
confidence. It is therefore pleasing to see a relatively strong Q1
performance across the board, with production and all-in sustaining costs
(AISC) in line with guidance for the full year. That said, Q2 production is
expected to come in c8% lower than Q1 due to reduced contribution from
the underground. Q3 is expected to make up for this, however, and we are
confident the company can achieve guidance for the year, although remain
conservative (we forecast 510koz at USD912/oz). In addition, the company
declared a 2020 first interim dividend of USD0.06/sh (USD69.4m) with a
payment date of 15 May 2020, which replaces the previously proposed 2019
final dividend of USD0.06/sh. This is a positive and should insti
confidence in Centamin’s ability to deliver a sector-leading dividend yield.
? Operating performance: During the quarter, the company produced
125koz of gold at an AISC of USD902/oz. The plant processed 3.1Mt of ore
at a feed grade of 1.5g/t, with plant utilisation at 96%. Open pit mining in
the higher-grade Stage 4 Wall enabled the open pit to deliver 2.9Mt of ore
to the mill at a feed grade of 1.38g/t. Underground mining in the quarter
focused in the Ptah zone. Improved contractor management and dilution
controls delivered a higher stoping grade during the quarter of 7.43g/t, but
total underground tonnes mined were c20% less than scheduled due to
restricted stope access at Ptah. Development grades came in at 2.16g/t.
? Outlook: Centamin remains on track for 2020 guidance of 510-540koz at
an AISC of USD890-920/oz, with production weighted to 55% in H2. To
date, Sukari operations have not been affected by COVID-19. There are
sufficient staffing resources and critical supplies for Q2; however, the
company notes that should travel restrictions be extended into H2, it is
possible that operations may be affected. Non-essential capex has been
deferred, including the Sukari solar plant, in order to minimise contractors
and other non-operating traffic on and off site. As a result, 2020 capex is
expected to be USD150m-USD170m (from USD190m).
? Model update and valuation: We adjust our model to include the Q1 results
and increase our 2020 gold price to reflect the strong safe haven demand
in the metal. The net impact is a 14% increase in our FY 2020E EPS. Our
price target, based on 6x 12-month-forward EBITDA and 1x NAV, increases
to GBp148 (from GBp137). We remain positive about Centamin given the
strong balance sheet of USD379m of cash and liquid assets and c9% 2020E
dividend yield. We maintain our Buy rating, but note that, given the strong
demand for gold exposure, shares have been a recent strong performer and
we therefore would look to add to positions on any meaningful pull back
Current Share Price 140p
Target Price 170p
Market Capitalisation £1.6bn
Shares In Issue 1,156m
RIC/BLBG CEY.L/CEY LN
Avg. Daily Volume (3M) 7,289,220
Centamin beat our Q1 estimates with 125koz of production at AISC of US$902/
oz. The beat was driven by higher tonnes and grade from the open pit and higher
grade at the underground operation. Prior guidance of a 40-60 split between H1-
H2 was moved to 45-55 while capex guidance was revised to US$170m from US
$190m as non-essential projects such as the solar plant were deferred. Overall we
view the production result as an encouraging start to the year. CEY has much to
like including a large long-life high-margin operation, US$379m of net cash, and an
attractive dividend yield (6%). If CEY can resolve the quarter to quarter and actual
vs guidance variability of production that has been an issue in recent years, we
think significant re-rating potential is there. For now, we upgrade to BUY and 170p
on a US$100/oz increase in our price deck, based on unchanged target multiples of
1.2x NAV and 8x CFPS. If CEY can deliver more consecutive quarters of consistent
production vs guidance we will consider increasing our target multiples.
? Q1 beats on grade, dividend maintained: CEY announced Q1 production of 125koz
at AISC of US$902/oz as Q1 performance was ahead of the previously guided 40/60
H1-H2 split. Our estimate was 111koz at AISC of US$1058/oz. Net cash was US$379m
to end the quarter, ahead of our US$341m estimate. Both the open pit and underground
delivered good performances with 4.2Mt at 1.1g/t mined from the OP and 154kt at 5.0g/
t which CEY noted was 27% ahead of the budget. Grade and tonnes from both the OP
and UG beat our estimates. A 6cps interim dividend (US$69.4m), to be paid in May,
has been declared which does not need shareholder approval. This is to replace the
2019 final dividend of the same amount, as the required approval procedure meant that
it could not be distributed in May due to delays in the AGM process. Conf call 12:30PM
UK time / +44 (0) 203 936 2999 / PIN: 611095. 2019 FY results will be released midMay.
? Full year guidance reiterated, but we are encouraged by the change in H1-H2
splits: Guidance of 510-540koz at AISC of US$870-920/oz was maintained but the
split was amended to 45-55 H1-H2. Guidance for Q2 is 115koz. Full year capex
guidance was lowered by US$20-40m to US$150-170m from US$190m with the
deferral of certain projects including the solar plant to minimize non-essential activity.
? Production not impacted by COVID: Precautionary health and screening measures
are in place. Rosters cycles are lengthened with on-site rest camps have been
established. The supply chain and gold sales have not been impacted. With US$379m
of net cash, we don't view liquidity as a risk.
? Model changes: slight production upgrade, higher gold price, multiples
maintained (for now): Our full year estimates are now 520koz at AISC of US$890/oz
(prev 515koz at AISC of US$911/oz) and we have reduced capex to US$170m from
US$190m. We have also increased our gold price deck by US$100/oz including US
TICKER CEY LN
PRICE TARGET (PT) 175.00p
MARKET CAP £1.6B / $2.0B
Strong Start to 2020
21 April 2020
Q1 gold production of 125koz was +6% ahead of cons with strong contribution from
the open pit. Solid output also led to cost performance with cash costs/AISC on
average -6% below cons. CEY reiterated FY20 guidance for production, cash costs
and AISC and trimmed non-essential capex (total budget -16%) to reduce traffic at
site. The "first interim divi" of 6 cents replaces the 2019 final divi, expediting payment
and reaffirming commitment to shareholder returns.
Solid Q1 Production. CEY reported Q1 gold production of 125koz, +6% and +12%
of cons and JefE respectively. While underground grades came in slightly below
expectations, strong performance in the open pit (both tonnes and grade) was the
primary drive of the better than expected gold production. The improved production
also translated to better performance with cash costs of $659/oz and AISC of $902/
oz on average -6% below cons. As of 31 Mar, CEY had $379m of cash and liquid
assets and no debt. Please see Exhibit 1 below for variance table.
No COVID-19 Impact Yet. To date, the measures implemented by CEY have helped
mititgate potential disruptions due to COVID-19. There have been no recorded cases
on site nor any impact on the suppy chain. Non-essential capex is being temporarily
deferred, with contractors and traffic on site being reduced as a further measure of
risk prevention. The 2020 capex budget is now $150-170m (prev: $190m).
Guidance Reiterated. CEY reiterated 2020 production guidance of 510-540koz (JefE:
523koz) and now expect a HoH split of 45/55 (prev 40/60). Q2 production is guided
to 115koz (-8% QoQ), reflecting lower underground output. Cost guidance for cash
costs of $630-680/oz (JefE: $674/oz) and AISC of $870-920/oz (JefE: $924/oz) were also reiterated.
From a reliable source-
Centamin have a flexible contract with EGPC, which has a set diesel price on a quarter by quarter basis. It is also based on the international price - to some extent!
There is a lot of chatter in the market about the impact of fuel pricing on cash costs - the model Centamin uses is a cost of c.$0.60 per litre
So I would suspect the only direction real diesel pricing would be down in my view!
Unfortunately I cannot buy more in my ISA . Barclays realised I am abroad and stopped me. And like you I have been loaded up for many years.
And I dont want any more tax liabilities as I still have rental properties in UK l
GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD
is now the time to buy??????????
Thanks for the reminder. The advice was for Mr Bond, I have already bought my divi shares with that overdraft, at 135, the divi will exactly pay it back and the next divi will pay the tax! Enough!
Was that a recommendation to Mr Bond or a thought for yourself. If the latter then remember 'No' you are already too concentrated in this share - think that is what you asked me to do if you were tempted.
Buy some more
Just hope that here we will be able to go out soon,40 days of total lock down, and running out of jobs too do.
Just one person in a car with maximum radius of 2 km or 600 euros fine and police checks everywhere.
Will not be able to spend the divi.!
I do not know,but we must all be feeling happy this week.
The price of gold reached a record high against the euro on Thursday, topping 1,600 per ounce for the first time after it jumped over 1%.
At 5:20 am ET, gold traded 1.33% higher to sell for €1,605.3484 per ounce.
More to come...
Breaking the News / GA
Very helpful thanks,
Gold over 1400 GBP, 1600 euros and 1730 dollars.
With gold at this price CEY are arguably still significantly undervalued.
Market confidence in the company given 2 years of failed promises is likely to have resulted in a discount. The great Q1 results, significantly ahead of plan, should have a double benefit. They are good news in themselves but also because they will help the return of confidence.
In addition we have the additional tailwind from going ex-divident next week.
Would be good stay strong until then and quickly recover from the inevitable ex-dividend day drop.
Best wishes to all,
Cholly good to hear from you trust you and family are well and staying safe are you still in Queensland? "Centamint" currently very tasty always the joker.
* $0.60 is obviously meant to be $60...