The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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On 1 February, the Prime Minister told the House of Commons that the Labour Party and Sir Keir Starmer are “bankrolled” by the protest group Just Stop Oil. We fact checked this and found no evidence that it was true.
On 8 February, we wrote to the Prime Minister and asked him to back up his claim with evidence or correct the record. He has not responded.
So far, more than 3,700 people have written to the Prime Minister to ask him to correct the record.
As of this week, more than 40,000 people have signed our petition to improve the corrections system in Parliament. Under current rules, the Prime Minister is one of the few MPs who can officially correct the record. But he has not yet chosen to do so!
Reuters Friday February 24, 2023 10:48
NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will be hard-pressed to lower inflation without a significant blow to U.S. economic activity and a sharp rise in unemployment, and even then may miss its 2% inflation target for years to come, a group of top economists concluded after a review of central banks' past inflation battles.
The study looked at 16 episodes since 1950, including six in the United States and others in Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom, in which central banks used rising interest rates to engineer "disinflation," which the research defined as a decline in the inflation rate of around 2 percentage points or more.
"We find no instance in which a significant central bank-induced disinflation occurred without a recession," said the researchers, who included Brandeis International Business School professor Stephen Cecchetti, who is a former top economist at the Bank for International Settlements; Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan; and Columbia Business School professor Frederic Mishkin, who is a former Fed governor and longtime research collaborator with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
The research was presented on Friday at a conference organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, with Fed policymakers slated to discuss the findings.
The study is not the first to argue that the Fed's outlook for the economy, dubbed an "immaculate disinflation" by some observers, is unrealistic and will at some point force policymakers into hard choices about how much higher interest rates may need to rise in order to lower inflation and how steep a price they are willing to pay in terms of job losses. Some estimates have suggested the unemployment rate, currently at more than a five-decade low of 3.4%, may have to approach 7% for inflation to fall on a reasonable timetable.
But a series of rapid rate hikes last year, which pushed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, has so far been relatively cost-free. Some parts of the economy, including the housing sector, have been hit hard by tighter credit conditions, yet the unemployment rate has not budged and overall growth has remained resilient - facts Fed officials say argues for a possible "soft landing" in which the economy weakens without falling into recession.
However, that very resilience, and a recent slowdown in the progress seen in month-to-month inflation data, has raised questions about whether the Fed will need to force interest rates higher than anticipated, at a greater cost to the economy.
'MILD RECESSION'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-02-24/Fed-needs-a-recession-to-win-inflation-fight-study-shows.html
Friday, 2/24/2023 15:25
GOLD and SILVER sank against a rising Dollar on Friday as Western stock markets also fell on the 1st anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine after new US data said inflation in the world's largest economy is running hotter than analysts and traders expected, even when fuel and food prices are ignored.
Hitting new 2-month and 3-month lows respectively at $1809 and $21.85 per ounce, gold and silver have lost some $150 and 15% from New Year 2023's 9-month highs.
Fixed-income bond prices also sank after today's stronger-than-expected PCE inflation data, driving 2-year US Treasury yields up above 4.8% per annum, the highest since July 2007 – eve of the global financial crisis – while 10-year yields hit 3.95%, up 0.6 percentage points from mid-January's 4-month low.
That still left the US yield curve deeply inverted – widely seen as a signal of recession ahead – after yesterday's 2nd estimate for year-end economic growth was cut by an upwards revision to the GDP purchasing price index.
With today's core PCE reading for January coming in at 4.7% per year, one-in-3 bets on next month's Fed interest-rate decision now see the US central bank hiking by 0.5 points to a ceiling of 5.25%, up from fewer than 1-in-30 bets this time last month according to the CME derivatives exchange's FedWatch tool.
Looking ahead to December's decision, just 1.6% of betting now sees the Fed ending 2023 at today's rate beneath 5.0% or lower, down from more than 4-in-5 bets at this point last month.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-silver-022420232
Barrick Gold announced that it is reducing its dividend by 33% to 10 cents per share
Newmont declared a 40 cent dividend which represents a 27% cut
Both have substantially lower AISC & substantially larger cash reserves than Centamin
Are the world's two largest gold miners acting too cautious?
Should Centamin follow the trend and preserve cash - what will support its share price ? What is its lower range?
This would not be good news if this is the case for gold. Gold needs less tightening and i'm banking on inflation dropping without the need for more INCREASED tightening which will heighten recession likelihood and cause gold to drop back. Equally, cey would suffer more as an equity- tightening INCREASE not good there either -
Latest .Fed needs a recession to win inflation fight, study shows.
Backs against a wall, much higher job losses or try to beat inflation.
Not many choices , Gold should benefit.
The real problem is how do western economies expand the workforce as the shortage of labour is what fuels inflation. Perhaps more support for childcare, having hospital waiting lists shorter for those needing to get back to work, training people to fill vacancies, relaxed immigration rules, better trade agreements between countries, effective measures to protect against future climate change, supporting more artificial intelligence solutions and robotics, supporting better approaches for independent living that would otherwise consume more human care time. At present very little is happening especially in the UK. Inflation is entering a new era and its driver in a background of changing demographics is the shortage of labour. High interest rates by themselves won't cut it. Boom and bust is a nightmare to invest in. It only creates short term traders.
Wall St slides as inflation data fuels FED worries.
You can fool most people most of the time ,but not all the people ,all the time.
Russia’s Cyberattack exposes U.S 2 Quadrillion dollar dilemma
Andrew Maguire reveals the widely unreported details of Russia’s ransomware attack which has disrupted the CFTC platform, causing a month-long delay in their weekly COT Report submission.
The London wholesaler points out the magnitude of risk this cyber attack poses to the financial sector, explaining the effects of currency weaponisation in the deepening geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXCpck8Xh14
Yes, but in a volatile world and even more uncertain stock market, it’s only the low return, safe bets that allow you to sleep at night, if you withdraw significant funds, best to wait for a robust business to hit the buffers temporarily and swoop, in turn make money on its way back up.
This results date is the same date as last year but last year they also announced the dividend declaration.
“16th Mar 2022 7:00 am RNS Dividend Declaration”
Major European stocks were muted during Friday's premarket session as the world marked the first anniversary of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with key western leaders scheduled to hold press briefings throughout the day.
On the economy front, the last trading day of the week will be marked by consumer confidence data from the United Kingdom and Germany, as well as the final data on the state of the German economy.
The DAX, the FTSE 100, the CAC 40 as well as the Euro Stoxx 50 all stood slightly in the red territory at 8:04 am CET.
Both the euro and the pound traded unchanged against the dollar at 7:45 am CET to sell for 1.06013 and 1.20203, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / ND
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend!
“Centamin will announce its audited financial results for the twelve months ended 31 December 2022 on Thursday, 16 March 2023.“
Whatever spare cash you have in a Bank earns no interest, that will continue .
So buy a valued commodity that for thousands of years has beaten any inflation.
Do you hold ant physical Gold currency ,of legal Tender in your country, as a safe guard against inflation. It cannot be confiscated as in the 30s , gold bars can -
Tell half fthe world it is completely useless .The East.
Most Banks even in the West ,they are buying whatever they can .
Thanks
I think the prediction interms of future value is right, the timing is wrong.
regards
the gnome
Pierre Lassonde predicts $200 oil and $2,400 gold in a month as Putin’s war drags out
Feb 28, 2022
"The longer it lasts [Putin's war] , the more profound the impact is going to be, particularly on the energy market. If this goes on for two, three weeks, a month, I think you’re looking at $200 oil, (and $2400 gold ) full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7ulPlxXaDs
------------------------------------>>>>
So the question for us examining the past is why didn't Mr Lassonde's (and most every other gold bug) prediction of higher gold $ come to pass. Some possibilities:
a) there just isn't as much popular demand for physical as we imagine
b) market manipulation (certainly happens in crypto)
c) the market is always right - gold is where it should be given supply and demand
d) ??
If the answer is 'c' then perhaps undiversified mining companies (single commodity) do not have the smartest business plan at work.
I welcome other thoughts , comments and angst filled comments
This is the best summary explaining the nuances. It matters not when, if it's the latest info view, which it is.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/23/economy/gdp-revision-us-economy
Those figures were from Q4 ,pre christmas.
With possible amendments to be made.
According to Kitco.
Amendments are a very useful tool for massaging the outlook .
Well I hope so Tony- some of the other figures weren't showing much slowdown. It's a tight one at the moment.
And yes, that was good.
Steve the figure that caught my eye was the drop in consumer spending. USA economy is all about the consumer and I wonder if that will keep any interest rate rise to 0.25%.
Not supportive of gold i think
Fair Comments Somnama,
Most of these mining conferences are a big "Jolly" for those that attend and an opportunity for some overpaid greedy parasitic CEO's to spout copious amounts of what they know to be unachievable promises in order to reel in gullible, and even trusting investors to raise funds for keeping no hope projects going a bit longer!!
Martin & Ross have likely realised this and are quite rightly getting on with the job of turning Centamin around into he company that has often being promised in the past, but never delivered!
Its actual, measurable and delivered results that are needed now!
Endeavour didn't take us as you put it because they were unable to execute the due diligence precess fully , ell now we know why there was the pile of crap at Sukari and the less than commercially viable West African asserts , which did make a nice little earner for he drilling companies some of which Pardey had close ties with!
Then of course is "Seb" to be trusted , Endeavour’s Centamin merger bid faces new setback as French officials launch corruption investigation into CEO
https://enterprise.press/stories/2019/12/09/endeavours-centamin-merger-bid-faces-new-setback-as-french-officials-launch-corruption-investigation-into-ceo-8004/
- The AISC cost does not cover ALL cash outlays required to keep mining. See my note. An important component is hidden by classifying these as “growth”.
Use the suggestion at the end of the note to be able to compare the relative performance of companies. Centamin stands out as one of the few companies that consistently generates positive cash flow and able to pay dividends. What has Endeavour done? Lately the company is doing very well, but the table below is for the period 1 April 2008 and 30 March 2019, which is extracted from working notes in a company valuation. Horrible history.
Endeavour Mining Corporation
Financial Performance From 1 April 2008 Until 30 March 2019
Year Ending 31 Dec 18 months 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Totals
US$'000
Ore Mined 467 2,876 3,228 4,366 6,713 6,898 7,554 11,086 9,597 1,285 54,070
Waste Mined 40,252 46,435 53,003 46,451 9,707 195,848
strip ratio 5.84 6.15 4.78 4.84 7.55
Total Milled/Stacked 467 2,496 3,307 4,211 6,304 7,171 8,383 10,791 9,948 1,815 54,893
Grade 3.09 2.23 2.26 2.62 2.48 2.40 2.25 1.90 1.59 0.98 2.10
Contained Gold 46,400 179,149 239,867 354,145 502,001 553,183 606,770 659,263 510,145 57,169 3,708,091
Gold Produced 44,407 163,769 210,209 318,143 465,770 516,646 559,190 593,815 450,140 56,648 3,378,737
Cash from Operations -11,179 -8,548 93,374 43,834 127,438 147,301 153,899 221,791 250,920 22,916 1,041,746
Investments 83,640 -145,347 -180,226 -148,556 -112,881 -7,306 -180,177 -478,728 -453,319 -109,857 -1,732,757
Financing -28,083 102,658 77,131 71,642 -27,166 -91,743 41,999 251,741 204,467 47,452 650,098
of which Equity 579 2,706 6,012 2,720 73 0 185,285 107,755 -1,356 238 305,130
Effect of X-rate 1108 -784 344 504 1,464 -912 -944 3,604 -748 -499 3,137
Change in Cash 0 45,486 -52,021 -9,377 -32,576 -11,145 47,340 14,777 -1,592 1,320 -39,988 -37,776
Cash at Year-end 167,300 115,279 105,902 73,326 62,179 109,519 124,294 122,702 124,022 84,034
Fair comments andobservations Paul!
As you imply Ocado price overblown based on analysts spin and bullsh*t, rather like the Centamin of the past built up on Pardey & Youssef's "Pie in the sky"which we were willing to believe, but then why wouldn't we, they were after all supposed to be professionally competent, posses integrity and to be acting in our best interests, they weren't , they conned us and a lot more other people besides!
What good market regulation, no use to the likes of us it's all a farce, the market is run for the benefit of the market by those in the exclusive inner clubrooms!
Kinesis & Basil 3 should and could have changed things for the better, unfortunately those of the inner club that control the markets only abide by the rules of fair play when it suits their best interests with the acquiescence of the government and the toothless regulator!
You mentioned "Boo Hoo", wouldn't touch it with a bargepole, "Sh*thouse" outfit, lousy employer, sources its clothes from sweatshops that abuse their workers and in reality is he leftover of asset stripper and king of stinkers "Sir Phillip green", what happened to him, bugger all!
https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/sir-philip-green-bhs-arcadia-marks-and-spencer-topshop-metoo-b83016.html
Kind Regards
Tibbs