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Summers sees risk of Fed hitting the brakes ‘very, very hard’
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that a broadening in US price pressures shows that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening to date is having a limited impact, raising the danger of policymakers having to do more than previously envisioned.
“The Fed’s been trying to put the brakes on, and it doesn’t look like the brakes are getting much traction,” Summers told Bloomberg Television. “The risk is that we’re going to hit the brakes very, very hard.”
“The Fed is going to have to view the situation with a lot of humility,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor. (Photo of Fed chairman Jerome Powell.) AP
At the same time, Summers said it’s too soon to advocate for the Fed to re-accelerate its rate hikes to a 0.5 of a percentage point move at the March policy meeting.
He flagged that there’s still a possibility the economy hits a sudden stop, when companies reckon with a build-up of inventories and headcount on their payrolls, and consumers deplete their savings.
“The Fed is going to have to view the situation with a lot of humility,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor. It should “avoid locking itself in with any kind of strong pronouncements”.
and so on ... a worry!
the gnome
Thanks, interesting articles. My take homes
...solid finish to the year was driven by higher open-pit grades with access to higher-grades areas helped by record material movements (~36.4 million tonnes in Q4), and a significant increase in tonnes mined in Sukari Underground (shift to owner-operator vs. contract mining).
underground tonnes processed increased 61% year-over-year with a phenomenal quarter from its new owner-operator underground team (i think there is a tendency to under promise and over deliver, and this will continue to happen in the underground for the forseeable future, until they get more confident of their geological models)
“We have added nearly 2 Moz of gross mineral reserves at Sukari over the last two years, and we remain confident in delivering more growth,” Horgan states.
For now, the project has been confirmed as being fully funded from Sukari’s cashflow. This includes purchasing additional equipment and adding new infrastructure for ventilation and power.
AISC was high, but ... partially because of elevated sustaining capital in the period, and cash operating costs actually held up well, coming in at $997/oz vs. $1,000/oz in Q4 and only up 5% year-over-year ($913/oz) which was a better rate of change than the industry average....will reverse course by FY2024, with costs likely to dip back below the industry average
The switch to this highly reliable renewable energy source has resulted in a reduction in exposure to volatile fuel pricing with commissioning saving up to 70 000 litres of diesel per day and averaging a reduction in diesel consumption of 22 million litres per annum.
This also equates to a potential $20 million in annual cost savings at current diesel prices. Interestingly, when Centamin decided on a solar plant in 2021, it was estimated that payback would take three years. However, given the volatility in oil prices, payback is now expected to be in under two years.
The minimum 30 MW grid power, combined with the existing 30 MW of solar power creates the potential to operate during daylight hours without using any diesel power generation and substantially offsets diesel consumption during night-time hours.
Sukari operates as a concession, meaning that Centamin does not pay taxes. Rather, it splits its free cashflow equally with the government, along with a 3% royalty payment. As such, its underground expansion does not just benefit the company and its shareholders, but also the country.
I see the turnaround thesis intact and the new CEO has done an exceptional job since joining in 2020, the stock would need to decline below US$1.06 to head into a lower-risk buy zone.
I see a path to sub $1,200/oz costs at Sukari long-term, and sub $1,100/oz costs on a consolidated basis if the company green-lights its much higher-margin Doropo Project in West Africa.
Trading at a good entry point right now
cheers
the gnome
Added another 10k shares. Getting there slowly on the down days.
Gold up a little in USD I see.
Entire portfolio is now 2.5% Centamin. My portfolio target for CEY is to hit 20% so a lot more to add in as I put cash to work.
I think the Fed and its sycophants will keep the interest rates moving up, although many learned fperson are saying this is unecessary ?!
It is fairly obvious that the ship is rudderless, and debt will balloon, and interest rates are aimed at making it worse? Unemployment has jumed in Oz, and thats when you can find someone to do a job? Strange world we are in. The Reserve Bank of Australia is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, detached, lost, hubristic and exceptionally slow to respond to its own mistakes, and now we have done with the positives lets have a look at the negatives. These gentlemen live in another universe, one of books and theories, and excel spreadsheets, and marvelllous assumptions...none of which relate to the world we live in.
That REAL fight will begin in earnest on Wednesday, when President Biden (if he finds out where he is and where the meeting is to be held LOL) and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican, meet at the White House (clue) to discuss the debt limit and other issues.
REVIEW: The United States borrows huge sums of money by selling Treasury bonds to investors across the globe and uses those funds to pay existing financial obligations, including military salaries, safety net benefits and interest on the national debt. Once the United States hits the cap, Treasury begins using “extraordinary measures” — suspending some investments and exchanging different types of debt — to try to stay beneath the cap for as long as possible. But eventually, the United States will need to either borrow more money to pay its bills or stop making good on its financial obligations, including possibly defaulting on its debt.
When the US gets in too much trouble, it just defaults like it did in 1971...
The fiat stuff is blowing in the breeze, so for goodness sake get into real assets ...
best
the Gnome
https://www.miningreview.com/gold/centamins-sukari-the-best-is-yet-to-come/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578667-centamin-solid-cost-control-in-a-tough-year
Am not clear on the below Mr T, but what I think, in areas I understand:
As you know, for most of last year I was banging on the "top and drop" of inflation and any recession being a soft landing. This was occurring, however, recent data this calendar year has shown a slight stalling of "top drop" inflation element (proving a bit more "sticky") which has made the FED remain hawkish and dare I say some now questioning the 25bps being possibly too soon, and maybe a return to 50bps. I think this is unlikely despite these recent strong data points on economic data eg PPI, Jobs, job claims, retails sales and so on. The next FED meeting on next raise will be key as will it's interpretation by the markets. Of course, this is being reflected in gold.
The markets in general (mining aside), have, of course, responded well- as they do to good economic data- until they see the FED acting on a greater raise than priced in, which could happen also.
Time will tell, and watch those data points, the markets always react on data, and don't simply follow "the charts"...
Good luck all.
05:20 The US insiders game. What is really happening?
10:15 Central Bank Digital Currency designed to track and control you?
13:50 Switzerland voting to prevent cashless society
16:30 Digitalised physical gold plans - how conceivable it is?
19:00 Central banks hoarding gold? What are they preparing themselves for?
22:22 Russia, Ukraine, China… Is there a chance for a peace settlement?
25:35 The Fed triggered the commodity super cycle. Could gold and silver move up?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgykyB-njfQ&t=15s
Off Topic !
London, Friday 17th February 2023NatWest has today announced that its profits for 2022 were £5.1 billion. The results are accompanied by news that NatWest has raised its bonus pool for employees to £367 million, following the government’s removal of the cap on bankers’ bonuses late last year. This, coupled with the source of these profits being largely due to interest rate rises from the Bank of England, has renewed calls from Positive Money for a windfall tax on banks’ excess profits. They are directing supporters to a petition, calling for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to introduce this tax, with more bumper profits and bonuses likely to be announced by HSBC and Lloyd’s Bank next week.Fran Boait, executive director at Positive Money, commented: “NatWest is using bumper profits to deepen its bonus pool, not to support the public, who bailed it out just 15 years ago, and who are now footing the bill of the higher interest rates boosting those very same profits. “It is completely unjust that bankers who create only more wealth for the already-rich get pay boosts whilst those who educate, transport and care for the public are forced onto picket lines for fair wages.“Clearly the government was reckless in its decision to remove the cap on bankers’ bonuses, which needs to be reinstated, and should tax these unmerited profits in order to provide struggling communities with financial support.”https://positivemoney.org/2023/02/natwest-2022-profits-positive-money-response/?link_id=5&can_id=7912b55e72d6174409e36b7a8226a78d&source=email-lets-bring-in-a-windfall-tax-on-banks-2&email_referrer=email_1820280___subject_2324388&email_subject=lets-bring-in-a-windfall-tax-on-banks
Harnessing the Egyptian sun
Given the abundance of sunlight in Egypt, it makes sense that Centamin has turned to solar power to power its operations at Sukari. In September last year, Centamin commissioned a new solar plant at the mine. Since then, the solar plant has been consistently delivering 36 MWDC (nameplate capacity), converting to 30 MW of power. Deciding on a solar plant was a no-brainer, says Horgan.
https://www.miningreview.com/gold/centamins-sukari-the-best-is-yet-to-come/?amp=1
Major stock indexes in Europe traded below the flatline in Friday's premarket session, as traders await the monthly retail sales update from the United Kingdom and the latest report on producer prices in Germany, while Mercedes-Benz and Allianz already posted their earnings results. The day will also be marked by the beginning of the Munich Security Conference which will see world leaders discuss various topics, including the energy crisis, digital security, transatlantic defense, and the Ukrainian conflict.
The DAX dropped 0.69% at 7:23 am CET, while London's FTSE 100 decreased by 0.31%. At the same time, the CAC 40 traded 0.57% lower and the Euro Stoxx 50 plunged 0.76%.
Euro lost 0.36% against the dollar at 7:34 am CET to go for 1.06356, while the British pound declined 0.46% versus the American currency to sell for 1.19379 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MX
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend!
A day behind, but better late than never .....
Tonight "British Bulls" say BUY
Signal Update
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY.
The BULLISH HARAMI pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 100.55
-- Date ---- Price -- Signal
16/02/2023 - 101.95 - BUY
https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=CEY.L
Ah, if only Centamin shareholders could!
----------------------------------------------->>>>
Expert Geophysics Limited
LinkedIn post 12h ago
#ThrowbackThursday to the discovery of the Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt in the 1990s and now one of the largest gold mines in the world. The Sukari Gold Mine has played a crucial role in the development of Egypt's mining industry, providing jobs and economic growth for the country.
Today, the story continues with modern technology and airborne exploration, and our MobileMT surveys are leading the way. With advanced electromagnetic surveys and highly accurate results, we're making mineral exploration faster, more efficient, and more accurate than ever before. Join us in exploring Egypt's mineral potential with MobileMT surveys!
#EgyptMining #MobileMT #airbornegeophysics #mineralexploration #ThrowbackThursday
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/expertgeophysics_throwbackthursday-egyptmining-mobilemt-activity-7031841227754876928-ws2g
------------------------------------------------>>>>
My Thoughts
The Egyptian focused link/advert shows some aerial equipment & the pyramids but swaps out the electromagnetic and magnetic data map with K92's porphyry deposit in Papua New Guinea.
A shame Centamin does not follow fellow gold miner K92's commitment to keep its shareholders informed. No one should accept Mr Horgan's rationale for keeping this and all other prior surveys from Centamin shareholders, citing 'protecting proprietary information.'
The data belongs to all Centamin shareholders to make informed investment choices — not its BOD & CEO to trade (or not trade) on insider information.
An excerpt from K92's presentation to shareholders:
In November 2021, airborne geophysics was flown over the entire ~860 km2 Property held by K92Mining in the Kainantu region including EL470. Expert Geophysics Limited (EGL) carried out a helicopter-borne MobileMT electromagnetic and magnetic survey. MobileMT is the latest generation of airborne AFMAG technologies, designed in 2017 by the inventor of the ZTEM system. MobileMT measurement frequency range is 25 Hz – 30,000 Hz, while ZTEM range is 25 Hz – 720 Hz, thus delivering a much greater depth range of investigation.
Electromagnetic and magnetic data was collected along east-west survey lines, nominally spaced at 200m, and north-south tie lines nominally spaced at 2,000 m. The results from the MobileMT geophysics show good correlation between known mineral deposits and conductive bodies. New vein and porphyry targets on K92ML’s licenses were identified as well as highlighting known mineralized porphyries, including A1, Blue Lake, Tankaunan and Timpa.
Muppet RSI misinformation and wrong again.
Today SP was flat, yesterday was ~+2.54%, so for him/her/they to claim the same is a lie.
So what happened to his/her/they predicted +2? Yep wrong again, either his/her/they "bull***it hammer" was misidentified or the "bull**it hammer" is just wrong... take your pick.
I've no idea why they have decided to clog this board with pointless bull***t, and even states he/she/they doesn't have any shares here- completely bizarre.
To keep my post polite, I used the a selection of pronouns, but apologise if he/she/they is in fact and it.
Take all sorts I guess.
Master maybe you were lucky to buy here, maybe not. It is thegold price that will move our share now and who knows? It depends a lot on interest rate expectations which are up a lot in last couple of weeks but who knows where next for the inflation rate expectations that drive them. I remember in the 60’s when e of payment figure was all important and keenly awaited. Then inflation figures. Then it was the money supply that was all important. Then bond rate expectations and 10 year TIP rate. Sentiment is a fickle mistress and you maybe lucky, maybe not
Another day and much the same as yesterday on the intraday chart
Bounce from support and an after a double bottom
Intraday chart ... https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=Qol3npbUR04URHXPntFR7M/rpkSuYsO1MpcmFtJCTJk=
Thanks Tibbs
I will take notice of your comment
Though I have been following the stock for years and buying from time to time I take the plunge when the charts tell me they are on the turn like now and can make a few £'s
I missed buying last October when around the 80'p due to already being fully invested, but this time was lucky to have the funds after the retrace.
In the title
Hi Master,
You may be used to forum such as T2W which has its place but is quite different to this one, however as a new holder of Centamin may I recommend that you make use of the vast wealth of knowledge on here from many of the LTH some of whom such as Dasut,Goldgnome, Mr Bond, Cowichan are former mining industry professionals or still practising geologists, other members such as Tornado, Bobliz, Rebess ,Sfeve, Sotolo, Rebess and Marmot have some considerable knowledge of how different aspects the markets work.
As far as Egyptian affairs go then Siko is the man on the ground as it were!
Sit back a little and learn about Centamin, it is a contrarian stock to say the leas!
Incidently, where is Marmot?
Tibbs
Laughable Muppet RSI, pre fantasy but entertaining - your posts display what you are and joke is apt
Major stock indexes in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Thursday as some of the final company earnings reports were coming in. Germany's Commerzbank recorded strong results in the last quarter of 2022, followed by more positive financial news from Nestle. French Renault Group joined in to report increased revenues. Later in the day, the European Union is expected to reveal its Economic Bulletin.
The DAX 0.25% at 8:01 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.62% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 0.67% concurrently. London's FTSE 100 traded flat a minute later.
The euro was up 0.11% against the dollar at 8:05 am CET, selling for 1.07015, while the pound traded flat compared to the greenback and went for 1.20332 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MX
102p +2p
Today's Pattern was a BULLISH HARAMI and the closing Candlestic a BULLISH HAMMER
A bullish harami is a candlestick chart indicator used for spotting reversals in a bear trend.
A bullish Hammer indicates a potential reversal to an uptrend
Chart with comments... https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=RHGZ94B/gCTZdCL0/6HEdgc/kJWe2xT/tZuD1S5igXI=
N o 3 time zones in aus 11 hours difference from sydney to uk. 10 from europe.
He probably wanted to watch some cricket and a beer ,in peace.
:-)
DASUT
re - Good night - goldgnome lives in Australia.
Thank you, I did NOT know , a holder since last week
but even so with a 9 to 10 hours ahead the difference would be from 8:12 post +10 hours =18pm like after 6 evening.
never mind.
Bobliz,
Thank you,
It's always useful to gain understanding and learn from other members knowledge and experiences!
Regards
Tibbs