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Hi Somnamma,
Possibly they have regarded the Centamin dividend reduction as an excuse or opportunity to reduce theirs without getting too much flack from shareholders?
Really can't see Cey cutting the divi any more, unless something dire happened!
European indexes were higher in premarket trading on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of a string of economic data reports, including Germany's inflation figures and PMI numbers from around the continent.
The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.35% at 7:30 am CET, the FTSE 100 was up 0.26%, the DAX increased 0.29% and the CAC 40 climbed 0.23%.
The euro gained 0.27% against the dollar to sell for 1.06050 at 7:37 am CET and the pound added 0.22% compared to the greenback to go for 1.20529 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Happy hump y’al
Gold .45% positive
1/3/23
Sotolo, Razors, SteveJ, 3Bear et al, all good points as far as production from the existing Sukhari mine is concerned but for me a big factor that could bump start the share price is to get a wiggle on with developing the 160km2 and the new concession. Dare I say it even JV with other companies to accelerate development of the new concession.
,
Yes 3bear- it's great that we have lots of contributors with differing nuances. Next set of US data on inflation etc will move things too
It’s not clear how any deal which results in new funding for projects in Northern Ireland will affect the rest of the UK.
The Barnett formula aims to make changes to funding for services in England have the same pound-per-person effect on the money which goes to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland for those services.
t’s not set out in law, and in practice the Treasury decides how to apply it. It can also be bypassed if the Treasury decides certain spending is outside the formula. If the devolved governments disagree they can argue the case.
The formula itself is basically: any change to UK government department budget multiplied by the percentage of devolved services in that area multiplied by the percentage population in that country.
So, if the Barnett formula is used the result would depend on which departments are affected. It only applies changes in the fixed budget of a department to the ‘block grant’ paid to the devolved governments. It doesn’t decide all funding.
How any additional funding for Northern Ireland might affect the rest of the UK will be decided by political negotiation.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/confidence-and-supply-northern-irelands-1-billion/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44397110
https://www.ft.com/content/7bf09766-5a66-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-politics-may-idUSKBN19H0HB
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/621794/Confidence_and_Supply_Agreement_between_the_Conservative_Party_and_the_DUP.pdf
Sotolo, Razors, SteveJ, you're all right in my view....
Rising SP depends on a market sentiment that production will rise, AISC will fall, GP is strong and ultimately as Sotolo says, profits are going to rise and keep on rising.
At the minute we're slightly in limbo ahead of a quiet Q1 but Q2 results should set things moving again.
Nice post.Can you tell me if the money promised to the DUP,was coming out of taxpayers or Donors Pockets.
It is surely wrong that Politicians can use funds that even opposition voters have paid into.On BBC question time the week before the Election it was clearly stated by one Tory M.P.,when discussing funding for the N.H.S etc,that there was "no money tree".The week after the Election one Tory on the panel on Question Time squirmed when goade with the words "so there IS a money tree!!!!".
"Let's get Brexit done "was Johnson's Mantra.He said it was DONE,papers told us all,and Boris was applauded.
It's now not done UNTILL it's done ,apparently!!??????!!!!!!!.
Sophie Hale, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:
“The broad consensus has been that the trade barriers brought about by Brexit would harm the UK’s trade and wider economic performance.
“That was very visible during a terrible 2021, but there have been some recent signs that the UK’s headline record on trade appeared to be improving somewhat. While imports remain suppressed, export levels for goods and services look more promising.
“While improvements in goods exports have been inflated by a one-off ‘dash for gold’, the UK’s resilient services exports grew 15 per cent last year. This offers something to build on in the years ahead.
“Britain post-Brexit remains a services superpower – exporting more services around the world than any other country bar the US. Britain’s army of accountants, artists, consultants, and educational institutions are a success story that politicians rarely celebrate. But they hold the key to stronger growth in the decade ahead.”
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/headline-trade-data-highlights-the-uks-strengths-in-selling-services-but-hides-major-weakness-on-exporting-goods/
* It seems this is article is more economy related than gold although the gold price is currently off by .30%
The Resolution Foundation said that demand from global central banks for gold and precious metals was a one-off factor that had boosted UK exports to the rest of the world
Subscription only:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gold-rush-adds-lustre-to-exporting-performance-33g8pgbxr
Major stock markets in Europe traded mostly higher in the premarket on Tuesday, as investors braced for the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases all across the continent, with Spain and France on the agenda today. The new batch of data could be crucial for future monetary policy steps.
In other news, the long-awaited agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the Northern Ireland Protocol has finally been reached.
DAX added 0.14% at 7:33 am CET, while CAC 40 gained 0.11% and FTSE 100 was flat at the same time. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.12%.
The euro was down by 0.18% against the dollar at 7:36 am CET, selling for 1.05894. The pound was 0.09% below the greenback and went for 1.20474 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Posted by
Ahmed AbdelSattar - Senior Geologist at Centamin PLC
We are proud to announce the new employee syndicate at #Sukari_Gold_Mine ! Our team of dedicated professionals have been hard at work, creating an environment where everyone can come together to share ideas and make a difference. With the help of our new employee syndicate, we strive to create a culture of collaboration and innovation that will help us reach our goals faster and better. We are eager to share our new initiative and look forward to seeing the results that our employees can produce when they work together for both employee and company goals.
#innovation #team #collaboration #CentaminEgypt #Syndicate #employees #Sukari
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ahmed-abdelsattar-499b5642_sukariabrgoldabrmine-innovation-team-activity-7036046574052859905-jiA6
--------------------------------------------->>>>
Last line says 'work together for employee goals...' Like better wages? Working conditions? Less contract workers on site? Flexible hours?
Also, did the syndicate get senior management's blessing before forming?
This may or may not be the case- but what is pretty much all of the case- AISC reported goes up
and SP goes down and vice versa- all others being equal
Of course but that's ages ago now and all the market is interested in is the future - eg solar plant and other cost savings with far better cost control and completion of the wall slip! Plus current predictions on
future costs is key by CEY
Do not put too much faith into All-In-Sustaining-Cost figures as reported by mining companies. All too often the figures are not ‘all-in’ and are not ‘sustaining’ over more than a single reporting period.
We recommend you see that analysis of cash flow statements in financial statements give a vastly superior picture of the true cost of sustained mining than AISC.
The formulas is relatively simple:
(Cash from Ops after Changes in Working Capital – Cash Used for Investing Activities) / Au ounces Sold
Yes, there are flaws as the cash flow statements can give an incomplete picture as they hide tax-like outflows under “financial activities”, do not show the consideration paid in company shares and include temporary items such as restricted cash, but they give you a much better understanding of the Company.
The fact that AISC figures produced by mining companies is highly selective explains why even “low AISC” companies somehow never make enough net free cash to pay dividends. Not only that but many of these ‘highly profitable’ companies find themselves having to come back to the equity markets over and over again, to refinance.
We recommend that you do yourself a favour and in future do the analysis. Again, it is the cash from operations after changes in Working Capital, minus the cash used for investing activities, and all of that divided by the ounces of gold sold.
Make sure to check that there are no exceptional items included and see whether the company can genuinely claim a proportion of the capital expenditure was spent on a project that will truly increase production in the medium to long term. The amount of cash spent on this particular project can be found in the financial statements under a table in the notes called Property, Plant and Equipment and deducted from Cash Used for Investing Activities in the formula.
Why AISC is Meaningless and Abused by the Mining Industry!
To demonstrate that AISC is meaningless as a gauge on how much a company really generates in cash, the performance of five diverse precious metal companies have been reviewed, some with important co-product revenue (e.g. SSR Mining), some purely open pit, others with both open pit and underground operations.
50% profit share
In the case of Centamin (CEE) an adjustment was necessary. The reason is that the company is exempt from income taxes in return as part of its production sharing agreement with the Egyptian government.
The government shares 50% of the cash flow after the company had recouped its investments. It is therefore a kind of “income tax” and should therefore be accounted to make comparison with their peers that are subject to income tax, possible.
The green highlighted cell shows the total cash disbursed to the government.
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/articles/analysts-notes-week-5
Steve I am not talking about general inflation but the change in Cey aisc as in the report in 2016/17 and now, and it’s large impact on change in profit and share price in past 5/6 years
Mr Tibbles, thank you for the exhaustive research on EU influence on UK law. That is the situation as it is. Brexit offered the opportunity of the freedom to CHANGE law, and move away from the control of EU regulation. UK law still being heavily influenced by EU law might indicate the difficulty of extricating the UK from that regulation, or that politicians have been slow to exploit potential advantages, or that the UK is comfortable with some degree of alignment with the EU, or that those opportunities where illusory. I see the UK rowing back from Brexit.
Not relevant Sotolo- you can't simply make those calculation assumptions as they are wrong. Inflation is a moveable thing so you can't simply say "x" and "y" and profit is "z"... for example you need to understand all line items of costs that make up the aisc , the origin of costs and the levels of inflation on those costs, for example how much of their costs base is fuel and what % of fuel in their overall asic and what fuel is predicted to cost moving forward. the same for staff costs and so on and so on and so on. Then the costs moving forward can be used in relation to ounces mined etc And remember some costs can actually deflate
although most will simply inflate also at a massively reduced rate
Razor, I think it was the big reduction in profit, and that came even more from the massive rise in price than lesser fall in ounces, costs have doubled since the 550k days, from in the $700’s aisc, so even at 550oz with 1800 gold would now be making just $90m or so, a far cry from what we did, so I watch the costs not the ounces, tho ounces help sentiment and to lower costs a bit
Let the networking begin.
Centamin just tweeted…
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1630148904221065222?s=61&t=wgc2HAkN6sQgUGHxwx95KA
Gold miner says area of open pit Sukari mine not safe to operate in and drops forecast production for 2020 by at least 13 per cent
Centamin cuts 2020 guidance on safety grounds
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2020/10/02/centamin-cuts-2020-guidance-on-safety-grounds/
In summer 2020 operations at Centamin’s Sukari mine were affected by subsidence and this put the shares under significant pressure.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/shares-in-centamin-are-finally-move-higher-after-two-years-of-being-in-the-doldrums
Maybe M.Horgan will meet another CEO in Florida and the two will hatch a wee plan.
Sotolo it was 550k Troy ounce production that took Centamin to £2 and loosing it that brought the share price back down again.
I believe.
Major stock indexes in Europe rose in premarket trading on Monday as investors geared up for a week packed with economic data releases. Eurozone consumer confidence numbers are due later today, while a string of PMI and inflation reports from major European economies will be published in the coming days.
The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.43%, the DAX was up 0.06%, the CAC 40 increased 0.57% and the FTSE 100 added 0.47%.
The euro declined 0.07% to go for 1.05400 at 8:02 am CET and the pound lost 0.06% compared to the greenback sto sell for 1.19364 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / NP
Happy Monday y’al