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I won't post them Sotolo- it's a self imposed rule.
As for trading here, you know my strategy, I've posted it enough- the likelihood of me going in before the FED speak is low- but depends what my feeds show between now and then, any news could break, but unlikely.
Mr J. Really appreciate your Posts on trades as done, I try to even if just adding for long term, please keep doing so
quickly underperformed expectations at its new owner - both in higher costs and lower production. The wall is a mystery - quickly repaired and mining commenced below soon after the contract was signed, go figure. IMO such a large waste moving contract needed to sound urgent and thus needed a catalyst. If a study had been undertaken (like a mini PEA/PFS) then shareholders would know the pros and cons of moving the waste in 4 years vs 5,6,7, 8 years . No such study was made or published to shareholders. Imagine that omission being done at Doropo - which according to management, will cost around the same as the waste moving contract. Mr Kees has always been right - as far as the comments I've read. Finally regarding the dividend being consistent , Mr Horgan says the company has committed to keep paying it vs utilizing profit to fund Doropo and other expansions. That decision means taking on debt, cutting a streaming deal with the likes of a Wheaton, adding forward gold contracts, etc. I personally prefer growing without debt , it's much safer albeit slower, but that's just me.
I would have thought volatility not surprising at all given the market news over the past few days
That would be good to see. At least under Martin Horgan so far, we have not had promises of guidance and then been let down. That was part of the problem with Pardey and the last lot.
Im hoping Cowichan can answer the questions I asked earlier.
I dont know anything about mining, but it just seems to me like Martin Horgan is getting the spadework out of the way. I believe he is well repected in the industry and cannot see him doing things without good reason.
It could be argued that the Solar has cost us a lot of money, but the savings should start to come through and it will seem like a good choice.
Have the other half ready if it wants to go lower. One in order in the book. The volatility is surprising. Yellen's call to support regional banks should have done the opposite for gold and gold miners as USA prints billions of dollars.
Spoonington -
I too am more than disappointed with the cash burn since Mr Horgan took the reigns. I was enthusiastic (nay, excited!) at the start of his tenure, choosing to believe the language of growth and diversification. Fast forward just over 3 years and the cost vs results equation does not compute. It's understandable some items are out of management's control, such as waiting on Egypt to finalize new terms, legal uncertainty re court case, the violence in Burkina Faso raising risks to high, heightened inflation, etc. Strip out those uncontrollable variables and shareholders are still left with an inexplicable lack of oversight and accountability. Like I pointed out earlier in the week, a prime example of cost control ineptitude was paying near a million dollar invoice on the Batie West concession for 2022. Stupidity. Personally I think the same ineptitude runs rampant throughout management. I just watched the full year results recording yesterday and noticed Mr Horgan say that the Doropo deposit had been renewed until mid 2024. While that may be true of 4 concessions surrounding the Doropo deposit it is NOT true yet for the permit holding Doropo , namely PR-559 or the one below PR-778. It may be expected to be renewed, but that's not renewed. Mr Horgan also talked about the delayed PFS and ways they have been pursuing to lower the initial capex on the processing plant. Well of course they need to find cost savings by removing components. The PEA was based on Batie West - and ten years outdated at that. I don't think Mr Horgan should try and squeeze blood out of a stone - because the Doropo project was assessed based on outdated assumptions for a different deposit perhaps creative solutions should be pursued. I believe selling 51% to a partner would reset the clock - allowing a new majority owner more time to explore and possibly drill out a larger resource. As it stands if Doropo gets renewed they are still on a tight schedule to develop a mine ( something like mid 2024) Rushing after delaying would be irresponsible. And concluding the project as 'unprofitable' just to relinquish to the state would be a giant waste of shareholder exploration funds spent over a decade. Finally, the waste clearing contract. We ought to have clear metrics to compare the cost vs accretive value created i.e. how has the open pit plan changed since inception? Are the cutbacks bigger than originally planned - I think they've said as much in previous presentations. What was the additional cost pegged at? What was the additional revenue pegged at? Regardless of that answer, the decision to contract out the work guaranteed it would be >25% more expensive to accomplish.
Paulmetcalfe,
No, I've never been a mining engineer or got my hands dirty in a pit - purely an investor. That said, I've been invested in the mining sector for over thirty years. Mr Horgan's main claim to fame has been as Toro gold's founder then selling to Resolute - although the mine quick
MrBond it would put the cat among the pigeons if Centamin raised their guidance.
Yes Razorsedge no loss of cofidece at Van Eck ,it seems.
Thanks, as I said I won’t post my trades anymore like I said the other day- as it annoys me and others- we are all here to make money the best way we can- I will continue to post views but not my positions. As I said the other day- from my research I didn’t believe “banking crisis”, this could of course change but for now the evidence remains contrarian- the FED is the only game in town this week and could cause big swings here and elsewhere for Thurs morning traders who trade in the U.K.
GLA
Raise their holding in Centamin from 9.62 to 10.33%
Well there you go. Now looking at how low this goes before maybe buying back. But RR is where the money is at and indeed CEY just seems to disappoint .
Hi Sotolo,
Clever Mr Jones indeed. I do feel that CEY is a traders dream at present and a LT holder's nightmare.
Hope all is well.
Best wishes,
Prof
Prof clever Mr Jones selling at 107. I couldn’t resist getting even more at 99. Hoc seems to be rising despite PM falls maybe on some knowledge or hope of permit problem being solved? Normally it is more expensive than cey but now a third less
Gold above $1950 and share price below £1.00.
Spoonington, why not write to Martin Horgan and raise your points, some of which are reasonable to ask?
Good points raised Paul,
I think it's a case of being once bitten,or thrice bitten or more in our case, twice shy!
The company should be more proactive in updating the shareholders and the market on the Sukari rectification work!
I think we all need to be on our guard this time because since the crack and the change of CEO we haven't really felt any benefit, only pain!
Hi Razor's,
Possibly the court case had rumbled on for so many years only then to then be stuck in "Limbo" that the brokers had completely forgotten, or chose to forget that some like Westhouse Securities had applied a 20% discount until some resolution was achieved.
By now of course the results of the forced disclosure of half a decade or more or less than credible mining practice at Sukari and the bill of $560 million plus for clearing the pile crap has rather taken the "gloss" off Centamin as a reliable investment!
However I am in Suffolk where it is early to bed early to rise, however I am always surprised how often Razor is up before me and how many post overnight, most from Oz
I meant the many of us in Oz
Just FYI heading South won't affect your time Zone. Moving East or West will though. :)
Cowichan--you are or were in the mining game? What sort of reputation does Martin Horgan have?
How would you have tackled "The wall" differently? Or not at all?
What reason do you think he might have for shifting it all in one rather than just removing what needs to be done to continue current mining, and maybe also gradually work on "the wall" if it does need doing?
What do you reckon to Mr T's mate Kees Decker and his thoughts over the years?
Also Im pretty sure that previous management did promise a lot over their last few years only for bad news to crop up a few weeks later. In one case I think it was the promise of the amount that would be mined in the year and then revised 3 weeks later.
Im not having a go at you. I'd like your view on the questions from you experience in the business.
Im a dull and boring sort of bloke. IF the dividends for the next 2 years were to total 20 cents (We should be so lucky!) , I'd much rather 2 lots of 10 cents than one of 15 followed by one of 5, even though money in your pocket is always better.
The point being, the consistancy would give confidence.
Thanks
Thank you Spoonington, quite agree, I enjoy waking to the overnight posts from those who live in sunnier climes, inc Gnome etc including Tibbs of course from Cornwall, I have visions of him waking and grabbing the computer as a thought comes to mind and then falling back to sleep, unless he has headed south). Also good Telegraph piece from AJ Bell which seems pretty spot on, thanks Razor
“ the dividend was lower than the year before and a long-term legal case in Egypt rumbled on.….”
Seriously I thought the rumbling had come to an end!
I’m not sure how this link will react to posting, my message is there is a long article on Centamin in today’s Daily Telegraph which ends with a HOLD recommendation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/gold-fails-glitter-metal-producers-can-act-precious-buffer-times/