We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Like all central banks, the Federal Reserve was designed to make money for the government from its monopoly on issuing currency. The Fed did generate profits, which it sent to the Treasury, every year from 1916 on—until last fall. In a development previously unheard of, the Federal Reserve has suffered operating losses of about $42 billion since September 2022.
That month, the massive interest-rate risk created by the Fed’s asset-liability maturity mismatch began generating cash-operating losses, and the losses now average $7 billion a month. This is because the Fed’s trillions of dollars of long-term investments yield 2% but cost 4.6% to finance. The Fed will soon have negative equity capital, and as operating losses continue to mount, its equity-capital deficit will grow.
In a July 15, 2022, note, the Fed’s Board of Governors discussed the possibility that the system could incur substantial operating losses as it increased interest rates to fight inflation. The Fed tried to play down the importance of the issue, arguing that its “mandate is neither to make profits nor to avoid losses”—a deflection that is disappointingly transparent to anyone familiar with central banking.
The Fed traditionally avoided policies that would expose it to significant losses. In the early years, member banks could borrow from reserve banks only by posting specific collateral. The Federal Reserve Act required loans to be backed by qualifying short-term self-liquidating bills—what today we call commercial paper. Over time, loan collateral requirements evolved, but as they did, the Fed introduced policies to protect it from losses when lending to member banks.
Avoiding credit losses is a requirement Congress added to the Federal Reserve Act in 2010. Section 1101 of the Dodd-Frank Act requires the Federal Reserve Board to establish “policies and procedures . . . designed to ensure that any emergency lending program or facility . . . protect taxpayers from losses.” Federal reserve banks are also mandated to assign “a lendable value to all collateral for a loan executed by a Federal reserve bank . . . in determining whether the loan is secured satisfactorily.”
While the Federal Reserve Act requires the Fed to avoid taking credit related losses that could have an impact on taxpayers, it makes no mention of losses from interest-rate risk exposures. The act’s authors never imagined such losses. Monetary policy was all but assured to generate Fed profits prior to 2008. That changed once the Fed started paying banks interest on their reserve balances and making large open market purchases of long-maturity Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.
Fed losses from its interest-rate-risk exposures—unrecognized taxpayer losses—are now being realized in ways Congress never intended and at magnitudes neither the Congress nor the Fed ever expected.
good luck punters
the gnome
https://fullfact.org/economy/eu-exports-january-2021/
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
On the flipside, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which provides independent forecasts to the Treasury, weren’t pessimistic enough about the effect the referendum on GDP growth.
https://fullfact.org/economy/how-accurate-have-brexit-forecasts-been-referendum/
The IMF have never, ever, made a correct prediction for the UK economy.
Europe is in a similar situation to UK. EU may even become worse if their dodgy banks (Deutsch Bank being prime candidate) collapse. Fallout will also affect us, unfortunately.
Europe and UK's woes were exacerbated by giving away far too much money during the Chinese 'flu, (UK gave away more than we could afford, unlike most of EU), then cutting off Russian gas to skyrocket the gas price, while buying gas from U.S. at 6x the US Henry Hub spot price. Some would call it shooting oneself in the foot, I just call it stupidity.
True we are where we are,, unfortunately we are likely to be further down the lavatory as time goes on!
The UK economy is well and truly buggered and that will influence POG!
cuts Centamin to 'hold' - price target 111 pence
Highlighting a 7% upside to the stock.
:)
I was a remainer, but I don't know why people keep harping on about this. We are where we are and as a country we need to stop complaining, pull together and make the best of it.
Life of Mine plan/assett review
28 dec 2021 https://www.globalminingreview.com/exploration-development/28122021/centamin-completes-life-of-asset-review/
8 Feb 2022 https://www.globalminingreview.com/mining/08022022/centamin-surkari-gold-mine-to-transition-to-owner-operator-mining/
31 Aug 2022 https://www.centamin.com/media/2868/cey_disclosures_on_tailings_management_2022_v0.pdf
16 March 2023, a few things that caught my eye ....
Capex guidance is US$225 million, weighted towards H1 (55:45), as the Company continues to identify growth and
optimisation projects at Sukari, including development of a gravity circuit; expansion of the dump leach capacity;
and commencement of the underground expansion. This also reflects inflationary pressures on the contracted
waste-stripping programme specifically from higher fuel prices
• Exploration spend is budgeted at US$30 million, including US$23 million for the pre-development study work on
the Doropo Project....sounds good to me ....
2023 KEY MILESTONES
• June 2023: Doropo Project (Côte d’Ivoire) complete pre-feasibility study
• H2 2023: Sukari Gold Mine (Egypt) update Life of Mine Plan (NI 43-101), including underground expansion, and
• Announcements on the ongoing exploration programmes
I feel reasonably informed. There are a few companies who do a lot worse. Quite a few.
regards
the Gnome
Major stock indexes in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Monday as investors continued to keep a close eye on the banking sector.
The DAX advanced 0.91% at 7:02 am CET, while the CAC 40 rose 0.74% and the FTSE 100 gained 0.69% at the same time. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.89% simultaneously.
The euro was 0.07% above the dollar at 7:05 am CET, selling for 1.07650. The pound stood flat against the greenback and went for 1.22330 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy Monday y’al
The big question you raised for me is the change in mine plan & why there has been no update to the market - the mine plan is significant & material & changes to it should be disclosed.
Based on the performance of the current management to date both in operational & disclosure terms, the absence of market updates is due primarily to the absence of any real plan.
They seem to behave like spoilt children playing with big tonka toys in a sand pit, mummy & daddy have already funded their activities so they can just move stuff around without any goals or objectives - unlike kids, the current management get to reward themselves with our money for conducting their seemingly aimless meanderings which makes them all the more galling!
Hidden away ?
No .
IT was there ,clear to see. ;-),
Thanks Tibbs - the settlement payment sure was hidden away!
Why are details only coming out now, with 2022 year end results?
Just in case any other shareholders want to ask Centamin investor relations it can be found here:
https://www.centamin.com/media/2886/cey-rns_fy22-results_final_160323_website.pdf
Included within non-current other creditors and current other creditors and accruals is $7.3m (2021: $9.8m) and $4.9m (2021: $2.4m) respectively in relation to the remaining instalments of a $17.6m settlement agreement signed with EMRA in 2021
What I find particularly disturbing is the EMRA's ability to demand monetary compensation at a whim without Centamin shareholders knowing what the heck payment was in regards to.
IMO the waste contract is a big liability going forward - cuz if the EMRA feels it's unfair to capitalize - guess what - they'll want another settlement and this time it won't be a mere $17.6 million - goodbye dividend ad infinitum
Yeah but I do get a stamp in my passport when I go to Spain lol
Britain’s trade has been hit significantly by its departure from the single market. Trade in goods with the EU fell sharply after the Brexit transition period ended, with UK imports from the EU dropping by approximately 25 per cent more than UK imports from the rest of the world, a trend which persisted throughout 2021. A recent revision to the official trade data (marked as “EU adjusted” in the chart below) has shown a slight uplift in imports compared to previous data, but the EU imports are still shown to have underperformed the non-EU ones.
https://institute.global/policy/three-years-brexit-casts-long-shadow-over-uk-economy
The UK economy will shrink and perform worse than other advanced economies, including Russia, as the cost of living continues to hit households, the International Monetary Fund has said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995
Much speculation has taken place in the past five years around the impact of Brexit on the EU and UK economies,
https://www.gerhardschnyder.com/brexit-impact-tracker
Sun, 26th Mar 2023 11:34
Alliance News
(Alliance News) - The UK economy is 4% is smaller than if the country had remained in the EU, the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility said.
Richard Hughes said the effect of Brexit on the economy is on the "magnitude" of the coronavirus pandemic and rising energy prices, and the country is seeing the "biggest squeeze on living standards" on record.
He told the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme: "But we do expect, as we get past this year and we go into the next three or four years, that real income starts to recover.
"But it's still the case that people's real spending power doesn't get back to the level it was before the pandemic even after five years, even by the time we get to the late 2020s."
Hughes said this is "partly" because the UK's growth has been held back by supply constraints on "key drivers" of growth.
He spoke of the country losing 500,000 workers, combined with "stagnant investment" since 2016 and slowing productivity.
Asked how much stronger the economy would be if the UK had remained in the EU, he said: "We think that, in the long run, [Brexit] reduces our overall output by around 4% compared to had we remained in the EU.
"I've struggled to put it in any kind of sensible context.
"It's a shock to the UK economy of the order of magnitude to other shocks that we've seen from the pandemic, from the energy crisis."
By Ted Hennessey, PA
Hi Cowichan,
Very fair and relevant questions!
Well done for picking up on this what appears to be an important change of mine plan that was tucked away on page 56, now why was that?
I wonder why the analyst haven't picked up on this?
Capitalised deferred stripping costs are included in ‘Mine Development Properties’, within property, plant, and equipment.
These form part of the total investment in the relevant cash generating unit, which is reviewed for impairment if events or a change in circumstances indicate that the carrying value may not be recoverable.
The stripping costs associated with the current period operations are expensed during that period and any stripping activity cost associated with producing future benefit is deferred on the balance sheet and amortised over the period that the benefit is received i.e., is classified as capital expenditure, creating a Deferred Stripping asset.
The pit components are the separate stages of the open pit mine. For each component, the stripping ratio is determined, and costs are capitalised if the stripping ratio in the year for that component is greater than the overall LOM stripping ratio for that component.
The change in mine plan* has necessitated an increase in stripping activity during the year (more than has been experienced in the past) and includes activity from both internal and external parties. As a result, there has been a significant increase in the stripping activity. Based on the calculations performed the amount capitalised to the balance sheet for 2022 is US$141 million (2021: $59m).
Capitalisation occurs when the strip ratio exceeds the life of mine strip ratio for that stage.
Only the costs related to the excess stripping are capitalised. In line with the accelerated stripping programme (2022-2024) we expect to be above the life of mine strip ratio, resulting in a larger quantum to be capitalised to the balance sheet.
--->>
Included within non-current other creditors and current other creditors and accruals is $7.3m (2021: $9.8m) and $4.9m (2021: $2.4m) respectively in relation to the remaining instalments of a $17.6m settlement agreement signed with EMRA in 2021. ***
By its nature, elements of the cost recovery mechanism within the Concession Agreement are subject to interpretation and ongoing audits by EMRA.
It is possible that future settlement agreements may be agreed with EMRA in relation to historic items.
The Directors have assessed that it is not probable that any additional settlements with EMRA will be required as at 31 December 2022, and therefore no additional provisions have been recognised within these financial statements
pg 56
---->
Questions:
1)What was the settlement agreement for $17.6 million signed with the EMRA in 2021?? *** (see above)
2) The EMRA can look back at historic capital costs deducted & audit them (like the massive waste contract Centamin is currenty undertaking) & deem them inadmissible - requiring a settlement payment (as referred to above) Who's to say this won't occur?
3) Centamin refers to a 'change in mine plan'* above but as far as I know the mine plan hasn't changed since 2017 - where's the new mine plan? Why hasn't it
Thanks Tony ,I agree.
US time changed 10 days ago.
We can probably expect a lot of manipulation of precious metal prices on the 28th by USA open and close.
I remain 50% in Centamin at a price I am comfortable with. Cash in the portfolio was reduced from 35% to 28% to build up Centamin now in 3rd place overall in my portfolio and i expect it to go into second place. Plenty of fire power if it gets ugly and enough on if everything goes to blazes in a hand basket and gold and the miners take off.
A part of me thinks $1800 ounce last year is the new $1980 per ounce as real inflation is certainly happening in the UK. If central bankers, politicians and the media said it was daylight outside, I would draw the curtains expecting it to be night time. The whole system stinks to high heaven as it appears to only serve a select few. The values of hard work, rewarding innovation and intelligence and those in positions of responsibility acting with integrity feel like a by-gone era of decades ago.
For those in the UK clocks go forward an hour tonight and I wish everyone the best as we head into Spring. Tony
Russian troops have killed thousands and displaced millions. They are also destroying Ukraine's environment, toxifying its soil, and burning its forests and fields. 600 species of animals and 880 species of plants are now under threat.
Altogether, the damage to the environment amounts to over 50 billion dollars. But ecocide, the act of severely destroying the environment, is not considered an international crime.
https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/make_ecocide_illegal_loc/?trtqjhb&v=502477191&cl=20290900020&
Hi Tibbs,
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree that at the time we did not know what Pardey et al were doing. My point was more that now that we do we condemn it while simultaneously objecting to the present regime investing for the longer term. As such i wonder whether we are not a little inconsistent.
Agree that it is the lack of trust that is causing the current share price vis a vis gold.
Best wishes,
Prof
Ukrainian children who returned from Russia after months of being deported have recounted the political indoctrination and mental trauma they endured during their detention.
At least 17 children, residents of besieged Kharkiv and Kherson, came back to Ukraine this week, non-profit Save Ukraine said in a release on Thursday.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/rescued-ukrainian-children-recount-horrors-090928360.html
Armed conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in early 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The previous year https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
Russia launched its well-planned armed aggression against Ukraine on 20 February 2014 with the military operation of its Armed Forces on seizing a part of the Ukrainian territory?—?Crimean peninsula. This date is not even denied by the Russian Ministry of Defense, as it is indicated on the departmental medal “For the return of Crimea”. In fact, only the next day Viktor Yanukovych fled from Kyiv; and it was already 22 February 2014 that the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the dissociation of the President of Ukraine from fulfillment of constitutional powers and appointment of early presidential elections in Ukraine”, used by Russia as a pretext for accusations of the alleged “unconstitutional coup in Ukraine”.
https://mfa.gov.ua/en/10-facts-you-should-know-about-russian-military-aggression-against-ukraine
Hi Prof,
I thin we all accept that the unexpected or unpredicted can occur on occasions in mining and that mistakes can happen and that we have given the benefit of the doubt on more occasions than I care to rememberer,not to mention being patient.
But I'm pretty sure that the majority of us were unaware the short term game for quirk profit that Pardey and the El Raghy's were at, Pardey lied on webinar Q & A to various callers including me and after claiming that the 2016 'Seeking Alpha"article was inaccurate and despite being given the chance to correct the claimed inveteracies failed to do so and then even tried to get the editor to pull the 016 'Seeking Alpha"article which has subsequently proven to be accurate!
Although some of the senior BOD since the exposure of the state of Sukari have gone, some still remain in post which must cause some concern.
That said Martin Horgan and his new team seem to be running things properly, but until we see some measurable proof then having suspicions or reservations is to be expected.
The SP in relation to the price of gold is disappointing so it seems that market trust hasn't yet been restored,