We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
It's like buying a new car and warranty applies providing it is serviced annually or on the anniversary of so many miles. The plant will have been the largest single capital expense and the first quarter will therefore suffer days when the plant isn't working and when it isn't working there is obviously an impact on production ounces.
An annual service and or change out of wear items is imperative to safeguard the plant efficiency.
It's just an opinion, but for me, more than anything, it conveys a lack of confidence in the numbers, the forecast.
It creates a situation that can accommodate poor results in the early stages, backed by promises/reassurance that all will come good in the second-half. - If they can't make the numbers, they then have the time and flexibility to manufacture a situation that covers their ****.- Like plant/machinery breakdowns where spares are unavailable etc. - It's never their fault. -This methodology has become a well-trodden path with Centamin. - It's rolled-out every year. - The great thing is, it doesn't seem to affect their rewards/bonuses doing it this way.. -
I think it a continuation from the previous management. They were kicking the can down the road for the next quarter or the 2nd part of the year, promising lots but not delivering in the last few years. I think they spoke if 600,000 ozs one year about 3 weeks before down grading?
It is always nice to break the back of a job and then be able to ease off. It would be nice to see a decent amount mined In Q1 , but they would have to announce it well in advance or when the amount dropped later in the year, it would be seen as a failure.
As I mentioned this morning, I think Marting Horgan will shift any excess ounces to the next quarter, until he is confident and good and ready lto announce increased production.
The painful clearing of the waste should enable more consistant figures, once it is out of the way.
From last year's Q1 report
"Exploration expenditure for the year is expected to be US$25 million, predominantly focused on the Doropo PreFeasibility Study (scheduled for completion in H2 2022);"
From today's Q1 report
"Exploration spend is budgeted at US$30 million, including US$23 million for the pre-development study work on the Doropo Project."
--------------------->>>
So that means they didn't spend 80%+ of last year's exploration budget - and they didn't tell shareholders. Essentially exploration spending has been at a trickle over the last two years. And they say exploration is a priority. BS.
Now go here: https://portals.landfolio.com/CoteDIvoire/en/
and search 'ampella' and see that the concession PR-559 & PR-778 have YET to be renewed
Mr Horgan has to be honest with shareholders NOW. These are the questions:
a) is Doropo too expensive to build, making it unprofitable ?
b) will the outstanding Cote D'Ivoire concessions be renewed in time to match up with the expiring concessions PR-334 06/11/2024 ? My understanding is that once PR-334 elapses it cannot be renewed, only developed (thus we'll lose the gold reserves as happened at Batie West/Koinkera)
Once again the ball is dropped in West Africa. Does anybody have confidence this current band of directors can negotiate the terms of new concessions with the EMRA in Egypt ? Reality check - it's been over two years of negotiating the 'new terms' for the EGX projects.
Maybe the EMRA's plan is to not negotiate in good faith. Or Centamin's.
https://www.centamin.com/media/2534/cey-rns_-1q22-quarterly_final_19042022.pdf
Could be but I think it's more why is always back loaded EVERY year?
On reason might well be ,The final stages of the underground paste fill plant construction ahead of commissioning in Q2.
As reported in tis mornings report.
Interesting point Rebess- am not sure why that is but am sure someone will provide the rationale- it's always the case here.
Not posting much these days I'm afraid. - I'm not always in a position to do so, but I never miss reading all of the contributions. Each contributor presenting with their own style and perspective, making for a fascinating and worth while read. - I'm flattered by the gracious compliments assigned to me by Razor and Mr Bond. - I'm not really worthy of them.
One thing that always stands out for me is the reluctance for the company to start of the year with a bang. It's nearly always weighted towards the second-half of the year and even this, usually reliant on a good final quarter. - The problem with this strategy IMO is that it leaves no wriggle. Much can happen during the course of the year, unseen events, black-swans, roof-collapses, whatever, and then the year is knackered and the SP and our hopes with it. In addition and under such circumstances, a collapsing SP makes us a target for predators - I'm sure you get my drift here. - How much better to kick-off with a bang, to get some contingency in the bank as a fall-back against unforeseen circumstances going-forward. - Imagine if CEY had reported 1st qtr production of between 120,000 - 125,000 ounces. against the current annual targets/forecast, what a start, what a fillip, what a message. - But, there we are, as usual, they are sticking to the same old strategy of back-end delivery.- With no wriggle, we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed. - The only good thing about today's results is that so far they appear not to have inflicted any harm, which makes a change. - Good luck everyone. - AIMO
Jobless figures up 5 K a surprise to many ?
Why surprised whe the January figures were totally wrong, simply by an annualised correction.
So now the FED has a deep quandery, their crediblity seriously questionable.
But good for Gold.
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1648933993587326977?s=61&t=wPRUR5w_YhDaiuhBs7gRKQ
I agree with Razor here - to a certain extent. Results will take a few days for analysts to digest, and they look good, but will they be enough for institutions (who are what move the share price) to start buying when the base rate looks like it's going to 5%? We all know it's half the rate of inflation, but it's effectively risk free so why chance CEY (or any other shares for that matter) at the moment?
Lucky- “ USD not making any meaningful move up right now, can be interpreted even more bearish for POG”
This is simply incorrect- USD not moving up, can only be interpreted as BULLISH for gold, not BEARISH. I follow my own advice, but correct where information posted is simply incorrect.
Hello Astro999 the market behaves kindly when it takes the notion, other than an offer for the company the market tends to reward in unpredictable ways.
The share price could rise for the next three or four days or it may not.
The real reward is the confirmation that the company is progressing steadily in the managements planned recovery.
From an investment perspective if you could buy a stock last week, prior to posting positive results and sell on the market reacting to the news the market wouldn’t last, especially with the publics widespread access to the internet. I believe Centamin will trend towards a higher trading range as the market adjusts to the company’s progress. It will only pop on extremely positive news like a bid or other positive news relating to similar companies in the sector.
Today is good, I’d like to see the stock higher but I’m contented with the knowledge that everything is progressing positively.
Steve is likely your interpretation of meaningful is different from mine.
I am not pretending you follow my advises, also because half of my posts are more questions than advises.
Initial Jobless claims out at 1.30pm.
20-Apr-23 Centamin PLC (CEY) Buy 144.00(old target) 145.00(new target) Reiteration
Some being released as per calendar.
And Wally speaks (oops I mean Waller(Guv FED)) on crypto- he was hawkish last week on inflation so I won't expect of any positive comment- reminder of what he said on inflation last week : https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-speakers-coming-up-waller-on-crypto-mester-logan-bowman-20230420/
Here you go Lucky- you posted it yesterday:
"LuckyLuciano
Posts: 2,395
Price: 105.80
No Opinion
RE: GPWed 13:10
Is likely coming 25bps rise plus ending of Indian Gold purchases season (to a lesser extent) will keep gold price under pressure for a while.
USD not making any meaningful move up right now, can be interpreted even more bearish for POG.
Again all eyes on next key economic data for directions, one thing is sure though (imo) USD destiny is downward."
lol
Steve I don't recall saying that....but is possible.
Maybe was at the time JPMorgan came out with results?
Then again the bottom line there was some 10% less retail deposits imv....
I mean after central banks came out with the idea to buy its own debit, anything is possible, even for USD and POG to follow each other direction.
I'd listen to you more Lucky if you didn't think a falling USD meant gold would also fall.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_a3f194dbdfe9a3125be6849db16d54d7.png
IMV wait and watch still best action.
QTR is good why sp not move
Also guys seriously, is it sensible to attempt to predict future price movements using data that is 5 hours old? Anyway I took a punt and sold out expecting Q1 AISC to be much higher than it is - so suspect I'm about to get my porridge burnt - the market's going to like these results cos they're fab.
Results day is always a bit odd Prof- seen days when it opens up, stays up and increases, does the reverse, and seesaws in between... the results look good, especially for q1 here.
Pleasantly surprised albeit a little disappointed with grades in the open pit but underground now pulling its weight even when still transitioning equipment.
Extremely pleased with the mention of the flexibility in the open pit with multiple areas opened up for mining, the pain from the waste contract easing a little but will be wonderful when the pain has gone completely.
Strip ratios reduced a tad but still too high.
Very grateful that the plant maintenance went without a hitch because this is a time when issues can occur, only takes something taking a few hours longer than expected to snowball and to seriously hurt production.
Overall as I say good first quarter and I like boring if targets are met and slightly exceeded.
Just managed to buy 10,000 more shares at just under 106 on opening. Did not expect that with both gold knocking back on 1999 and this morning's RNS. Would expect to see a reasonable move up today - we shall see!
Best wishes,
Prof