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Thanks Mr Tibbles here s a bowl of milk.
For some reason I no longer get notified direct of Live from the vault.
Andrew is of the same opinion as I.
Chile’s President Gabriel Boric said on Thursday he would nationalize the country’s lithium industry, the world’s second largest producer of the metal essential in electric vehicle batteries, to boost its economy and protect its environment.
The shock move in the country with the world’s largest lithium reserves would in time transfer control of Chile’s vast lithium operations from industry giants SQM
and Albemarle to a separate state-owned company.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/21/chile-plans-to-nationalize-its-vast-lithium-industry.html
---------------------------------------->>>>
Now imagine GOLD shooting up to $ 2800 ++
Don't think poor countries wouldn't nationalize their gold in situ at some strategic dollar value for the sake of 'national security'
Major structural changes within the options market, exposing COMEX machinations that were forcing gold to fall into the predetermined price range for decades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vfrPo_E99Y
Just had a mail into my inbox at 1615 from Hargreaves Lansdown with ideas to benefit from rising gold. They recommend 2 shares: Barrick and Centamin. Text ref Centamin as follows:
Centamin is another gold miner, but with a much more concentrated portfolio than a global giant like Barrick, it offers something different.
Operations focus on the Sukari mine in Egypt, with another couple of sites at varying stages of development. A concentrated portfolio adds risk. We'd argue the added risk paves the way for greater upside potential. Nonetheless, if anything happens to the site in Egypt, there's little in the way of backup.
Production at the Sukari mine has been in decline for several years. But 2022 marked an end to that trend, production's expected to return to around 500,000 ounces from 2024, slightly ahead of some estimates. Reserves have been improving and an updated expansion plan is expected in the second half.
Diversification away from the Sukari mine is underway, with progress being made at the Doropo project in Côte d'Ivoire. The latest project study is due for completion in the first half of this year, which could act as a near-term catalyst. The business is on strong foundations, with cash on the balance sheet and zero debt. But as with all mining projects, risks are high.
Like Barrick, costs have been on the rise, putting pressure on margins. The effects are being reduced to some extent by a $150m cost-saving programme due to be delivered by the end of the year. Progress so far has been encouraging, with $116m in savings delivered as at the end of the last financial year.
Its concentrated portfolio makes Centamin a higher-risk option than some of its larger peers. That’s reflected in a less demanding valuation, which we see as offering upside. Though, there’s no guarantee.
Slightest news good or bad is an opportunity, remember it is all about keeping the dollar strong, fully endorsed by the FED.
The dollar as world trading currency is at stake,and with BRICS nations it is getting much harder to keep confidence in the $.
What can you all expect, its a Friday, panic selling as usual on figures that look decidedly dodgy.
Its said on Yahoo fiance ,"The puzzled look on the hosts of the yahoo fiance,dicussing the contadictory data is priceless"
Give it a few days then these same traders will see another chance at buying ,then again selling , wash and repeat as it is fondly known..
USD is getting stronger.
Keeping my CEY ISA positions on hold. Holding enough cash to buy back all of my 2022 Centamin positions.
In case you wondered why gold just got whacked- although wait to see how the liver and shakers interpret it …
Hi Dasut,
Yes exactly as you say!
Tibbs
Dasut, they capitalised $21M of the contract waste stripping & classified it as non-sustaining so I don’t think it will be hitting the AISC that heavily yet.
The fact that they are classifying the cost as non-sustaining capex is clear indication that this is not removal of built up waste from previous mining but really a pre-strip to improve future metrics. I continue to question the efficiency of this & the fact that current management have released no cost benefit analysis for such a significant & cash consuming program worries me - if they have not done such an analysis that would be negligent, if they have done such an analysis there is no reason not to release & let us know they are spending our money for good reason.
You seem to know a bit about getting gold out of dirt, do you think the lack of informational release about the projected costs & importantly anticipated benefits of the waste movement program is reasonable?
Tibbs strip ratio is something that directly impacts the bottom line and without spending time on actual numbers from memory the cost of waste removal just on contract with capital was about $20 million for first quarter and believe they moved just over 10 million tonnes so about $2 a tonne which is about right give or take 20/30 cents.
However this is 10 million tonnes and no ounces contribution so a direct cost. When compared to ounces of 105,000 produced in 1st qtr we are looking at $190 per ounce purely for the waste contract and then add the cost of waste removal by Centamin's fleet from memory another 20 million tonnes and it is clear high stripping ratio hurts.
That said when the waste contract which in my opinion is a necessary evil finishes we can enjoy an overnight reduction in AISC and hopefully a flexible mine with a more realistic strip ratio closer to 6:1 supported by a more productive underground contribution.
So if Kees Decker is of the opinion that hurt today will hopefully give us golden flip flops in the future than I am with him but at the same time I wish we didn't have to go through the pain caused by management taking their eye off the ball.
..... only sellers seem to be overwhelming buyers on level 2
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1649340041246789636?s=12
Hi Dasut,
You are of the same opinion as Kees Dekker "Mining Analyst" these improvement in results are as forecast by him last year. and Kees is of the opinion that with Martin Horgan's present strategy this will continue going forward.
As you observed the stripping ratio is still very high as above 9, the cash margin is very low and possibly negative when considering capex associated with the open pit!
As Kees previously pointed out in his reports his reports of 2015 & 2018 it is the underground mining is the real source for cash flow at the moment, although as we are painfully aware at the time this was denied by Andrew Pardey CEO at that time!
Sorry typo should read Solar!
The role potentially played by climate change, as reflected in global temperatures and the increasing cost of fossil fuels.
https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2022/climate-change-fossil-fuels-and-uk-food-prices
Food, fuel and energy bills are out of control and one of the reasons behind soaring prices is Fossilflation.
Watch now to find out how fossil fuels are making life miserable for all of us and why we need to reroute our whole system towards renewables to help bring prices down once and for all.
Sign the statement to demand Jeremy Hunt takes action now: https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/b...
https://www.youtube.com/user/PositiveMoneyUK
Thoroughly agree gnome West African government departments can't be rushed and hopefully Centamin no longer need a simple renewal of exploration licenses and are now applying for mining licenses which will also incorporate mining exploration.
Actually I am looking forward to seeing the results of the PFS in the coming months.
Thanks Prof. No matter what the figures are or what happens, somebody with the benefit of hindsight will say that it was expected because of XYZ . I suppose it is very hard to predict how much gold you will get out of the ground, even working at the same speed, as it depends wheter the gold is there or not! A few nice fat nuggets along the way would help :-)
I know some people dont like Martin Horgans "playing it safe" style, but that is also fine by me as I think he realises that he has to produce what has been predicted , or very close to it, each quarter, to maintain confidence. So this "steady as she goes" style is fine so long as the work is getting done.
Having said that, Im still waiting for him to unleash a cover drive or 2. From what I can gather he does seem to be clearing the way and opening things up to allow increased production in the not too distant future.
Fingers crossed for the Golden flip flops.
It doesn't work like this alas Paul- there are many factors including sentiment (which is less rationale)- 6th Jan2023 (3.5months ago, CEY was 125.5 and gold was 18,866)... But gold rose from 1,629 to 1,866 in only 2months(CEY rose 40% and other PMs flew too) as it looked like inflation had topped and dropped.
Since then (CEY has dropped about 18%), despite gold increasing from 1,866 to where we are now (so another ~120), but it took almost twice as long as previous rise with about half the increase and did drop quite a bit before rising again in this timeframe. during this time, the feeling is that inflation drop has/is stalling... hawkish FED etc.
My point is, absolute values don't matter, if they did (and RNS were good), then CEY would be above 125.5, and not down about 18%.
Long term remains strong though- let's hope inflation drops quick, which it should do soon, then CEY will reflect this (without any poor RNS on company stuff)
Hi Goldgnome,
I thought it was bed time down under!
I would love to see those figures. Put the $2200 together with a slight over performance on the AISC range that I mention in my previous post and we would be getting $1000 an oz over costs. Now wouldn't that be nice.
Yours dreaming,
Prof
Hi Paul,
I am afraid that I have limited figures to hand. The guidance for AISC for this FY is $1250-1400. Q1 AISC was $1348 for a production of 105,875oz so already well below the top end of the guidance range. All else being equal AISC will fall as oz produced increases as the non marginal costs of production are spread over a larger volume of ozs. That should therefore drive AISC down over the rest of the year. All else however is not equal and I expect a number of the other initiatives that CEY has underway to drive down AISC to have some effect this year (you mention the grid connection although of little/ limited impact this FY I suspect) and also some of the one off costs as they seek to get the mine back in shape to cease or reduce (you mention waste removal which we should see the 'extraordinary' element slip away although some is business as usual. As such I would be disappointed to see AISC above the mid-point of the range and would hope to see it somewhere between the bottom end of $1,250 and the midpoint of $1,325.
A large part of this guesstimate and perhaps too much is hope. I do suspect that CEY have given a range that they are comfortable being able to deliver even with bad inflation and a few curve balls as Horgan does seem to like to play it safe (fine by me!). If that inflation is not as bad as last year and there are no serious curve balls then that also gives me an expectation that we could come in within the figures I mention above of $1250-$1325.
Ultimately however we will only know in retrospect.
Best wishes,
Prof
Prof
I would not discount gold going to $2100 or $2200
The belief in curency is a belief in government, and that belief has all but disappeared.
good luck to us all
The gnome
Prof---as you seem to have the figures to hand, assuming for now that gold hovers around $2,000, how will the end of the waste clearance affect the AISC and profits? I think the waste removal is costing rather a lot at the moment? A $50 or £100 dollar reduction in AISC is as good as the same increase in the POG isnt it?
Also, moving forward, (just at a guess) how much will connecting to the grid cut costs?
Thanks