The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Wish I could be bothered to go back to the 100s of doom sayers 2 years ago when they all said guaranteed recession by end of 2021 lol
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bI7dsl1BLL0
Check out Marc Faber's fortnightly economic report at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
Niels Christensen.
Gold is attracting new attention.
Interesting article,including surprising comments from Goldman Sachs.A very appropriete name :-) (sacks of gold men )
The new Centamin PR company seems very quiet?
So lot's of talking , but what's really changed in Eygpt?
The military dictator changes his uniform for a suit, the army stays in control, the get richer and the poorer, still not so different from so many other countries the world over!
May 30,2023
The Industry Committee of the House of Representatives headed by Eng. Moataz Mahmoud recommended, during its meeting today, Tuesday, to organize a field visit to the mines of Iqat, Al-Fawakhir, and Hamish, to find out about the conditions of the mines.
The committee also recommended that the Ministry of Petroleum and the World Bank study the establishment of a gold refinery be provided with a study, and demanded that all mining contracts with the date of its inception so far be reviewed.
This came during a discussion of a request for briefing submitted by Representative Muhammad Al-Jablawi regarding the establishment and implementation of the first gold refinery in Marsa Alam in the Eastern Desert. And the question about the authority’s laboratories in Dokki, which were opened last year, and do they have a structure and development?
For his part, geologist Yasser Ramadan, head of the Egyptian General Authority for Mineral Resources, commented that a study had already been prepared for the establishment of the gold refinery. The cost of the first stage amounted to 30 million dollars, explaining that directives were issued to seek the assistance of an Egyptian bank and that there was a study that was conducted by the World Bank at a cost of 371 million dollars. And that study ended in July 2022.
The head of the authority confirmed that all agreements are reviewed periodically, and whoever has the right to contract will complete his work, and whoever does not have the right will withdraw the contract, stressing: We will not allow anyone to continue illegally, and with regard to Dokki factories, a program was set up to rehabilitate the factories and serve them. .
http://emra.gov.eg/UI/Lang1/TDIDataShow.aspx?ID=8399
Things are getting worse as one of the members of the richest family in Egypt and Africa announced his intentions to steer his investments toward Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Morocco. This sends a message that the investment atmosphere in the country is not safe, and that things are moving in a negative direction. There has also been a decline in the size of the private sector of the economy from 62 per cent to 21 per cent within 10 years, according to official data.
What is getting the situation even worse is the government imposing restrictions on the movement of imports and exports, imposing more taxes and monopolising vital sectors in favour of parties close to the authority. In addition, companies affiliated with the military institution enjoy tax and customs privileges that increase the volume of their gains compared to private sector companies that suffer from market fluctuations and price discrepancies, and not receiving their dues owed by the government.
An informed source in a major contracting company who spoke to Middle East Monitor on condition of anonymity, said that the company did not receive its dues for implementing government projects from last September, which is 8 months ago, causing salary delays and layoffs of part of the staff, and a number of projects have stopped.
A second source at Hassan Allam Contracting Company confirmed that the company did not receive its financial dues for projects implemented in the New Administrative Capital (east of Cairo). He added that the owner of the company had received a government offer to obtain a piece of state land in exchange for his frozen dues.
The current crisis which, according to Sawiris's statements, caused the collapse of the private sector, is mainly due to the growing control of the Egyptian army over vital economic sectors and the expansion of its projects. Military projects have been expanded to include agriculture, tourism, entertainment, health, hotels, roads, bridges and infrastructure, residential buildings, gas stations, iron and cement factories, food industries, dairy, meat, poultry, fish and others.
No one really knows the precise size of the economic empire of the military establishment in the country. Army related companies are not being subject to any oversight by Parliament or the Central Auditing Organisation (a supervisory body), neither do their revenues get added to the Egyptian treasury.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230516-sawiris-is-sounding-the-alarm-are-investors-fleeing-egypt/
------------------------------------------>>>>
At this rate, is foreign investment in Egypt really safe? What's to stop the military from expropriating any new gold discoveries - esp. if they are large ?
And for some more context over same time frame when gold is was pretty much where it is now (early August 2020):
CEY down ~56%, FRES down ~48%, HOCHS down ~73%, Barrick down ~41%, Newmont mining down ~40%
Key markets:
FTSE up ~25%, Dow Jones up ~24%, S and P up ~29%, Nasdaq up ~21%
And for Mr T, as he commented on crypto- Bitcoin UP ~235%....
So there you go, clear evidence of PM dire performance... costs and inflation anyone?
Van Eck gold miner ETFs are 0.5% above a major support zone.
Rebess/Spoonington.
It is primarily inflation since highs of Aug2020 approx as I said- of course AISC is at record highs Mr T as that what inflation does to the cost base... My rationale- look at other PMs over the same time frame, just as bad, and remember these figures don't include the divis paid out, of which CEY where good. Of course, I'm not defending CEY- far from it, but just saying that all PMs are suffering, and it's called inflation...
PMs:
CEY down ~56%
FRES down ~48%
Hochs down ~73%
Barrick down ~41%
Newmont down ~40%
So clearly there's something in common methinks...
Maybe we need some criminal means in the picture Rebess?
The $300M reserves were built up by a management team that we are repeatedly told by many august & very well informed posters were incompetent charlatans even though they amassed those reserves whilst still being able to pay us shareholders very healthy dividends.
Now we have an honourable, beyond reproach management team our reserves have been eroded, our dividends have dwindled from a torrent to a trickle & our share price has reflected this overall malaise.
It is over 3 years since the new team took over, if after that time the best justification people can come up with to excuse their abysmal performance is to continue to blame predecessors then I fear the slide into doom may become irreversible.
Bring back the criminals I say! :)
Not a lot of volume behind the selling. The precious miners, especially Centamin are oversold. They ar now hedged for a gold price now heading for $1820 per ounce. Centamin production goes up 22% in H2 over H1 results. The average gold price sell on spot is probably $1930 since 1 January. Overall annual production is forecast to be 5% greater than last year. AISC is just about flat year on year after an extensive cost cutting programme.
Now awaiting FED meeting next week. We may get a couple more weeks of pull back, but I suspect a strong rally follows. If the company gets connected to the grid and uses less diesel, the SP could find another 10p. Tony
You are getting me all depressed, going into the weekend! In the very short term, if we reinvest the dividend then we get a few mores shares for our money. In the slightly longer term, this share seems to move between 100 and 110 and I'll try and dabble and sell a few at the higher end of that and then hope to get back in about 104 or 5.
Longer than that -----well gold seems to be keeping above $1950 which is $100 above what Centamin have factored in so there should be a bit more profit and hopefully a higher dividend next time round.
Beyond that, they should be getting on with the waste clearing and with the solar and also connecting to the grid, AISC should be coming down.
I'm getting too old waiting to pick up the golden flip flops. RIght--off in to the garden to prune some lavender.
Quite so Rebess!
AISC at record highs and market confidence completely down the lavatory along with so many yet to be delivered on promises!
It's not just inflation IMO. - 3 years ago they had $300m reserves, now it's all gone. - Now you see it- Now you don't. - In the blink of an eye - all gone. - Other than through criminal means or bankruptcy, I've never known a company divest itself of its financial-security as rapidly as Centamin has done.
It’s all about inflation… cey share price less than half it was 3 years ago approx which gold at similar level. Production is much higher than then too from cey- inflation inflation inflation
3bear- I can find something not to like about this stock- it keeps going down
3bear, Love your optimism and hope you are right.
Doropo could produce by 2026 if they rubber stamp the development by the end of this year/early next year.
Bearing in mind it is likely to be contract mined and from what we have heard so far the process could be quite straight forward so a standard type CIL processing plant, that has a "relatively" short lead time.
Could be even earlier if they lay down a leach pad and start with a very simple heap leach operation which isn't uncommon in West Africa, prior to the plant being operational.
The available revolving finance line would be adequate to kick start the project.
However as I say there would need to be some extremely fancy footwork to get the button pushed by the year end and so far I haven't read anything that talks about a simple heap leach to get the mine up and running and wow would need to be flying to get 200,000 plus ounces per annum out of the so far reported resource by 2026.
The PFS has been a long time coming so it should by now have considerable detail and this detail I would hope can or already has created a mine plan. If so the all important financial numbers to create the bankable document should be relatively straight forward to obtain and audit.
As I say like your optimism and processing some gold by 2026 is possible but only with somewhat more than a fair wind (more like a gale) behind them.
3bear
They havent even completed the feaseability study yet apart from the funding and then building the dam thing and you are saying they will be producing in 2026 you must be having a laugh
Topped up again. Lowest buy so far at 97p flat. Does not make sense with gold in the 1970 range.
Run away from AAPL,NVDA and entire tech sector as fast as you can and start buying gold- The High-Tech Stategist Fred Hickey.
Good read.
Q2 revenue will be well in excess of USD200,000,000
Grid connection around the same time the waste stripping contract ends is going to see AISC plummet.
Doropo means 700,000oz+ from 2026.
What a brilliant and exciting investment opportunity Centamin is at the minute.
And it's cheap.
Just can't find anything not to like about this stock.
Crypto firms must warn customers they should not expect protection if their investment goes wrong and introduce a “cooling off” period for first-time investors, under new rules imposed by the UK financial watchdog.
The Financial Conduct Authority said that from 8 October firms promoting crypto products or services would need to carry a clear risk warning in their adverts.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/08/crypto-ads-risk-warnings-fca-uk-rules-october
https://www.asa.org.uk/advice-online/financial-products-and-services-cryptoassets.html
Ten-Fold Increase in US Jobless Claims Supports Rate Pause by Federal Reserve
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-06-08/Ten-Fold-Increase-in-US-Jobless-Claims-Supports-Rate-Pause-by-Federal-Reserve.html
What’s the opposite of a yawn. Cheers for the link.