Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

For the ignorant (like me):
“ DescriptionTriple witching hour is the last hour of the stock market trading session on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December. Those days are the expiration of three kinds of securities: Stock market index futures; Stock market index options; Stock options.”
— Wikipedia
Causes a little turbulence... I think Centamin has become immune, seems very strong lately.
Like the market is taking something into account that hasn’t yet been announced.

Hi Razor's Edge!
It's quad witching day today as well. So expect turbulence later.

“We learned a lot. We would do some things differently, but I am very satisfied. I feel very good about completing this on my watch,” Feeney tells Forbes. “My thanks to all who joined us on this journey. And to those wondering about Giving While Living: Try it, you'll like it.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenbertoni/2020/09/15/exclusive-the-billionaire-who-wanted-to-die-brokeis-now-officially-broke/

Shares on major European stock markets were mixed in premarket trading on Friday as investors' remained focused on the coronavirus pandemic and the course of the economic recovery from the virus-caused crisis. The number of daily coronavirus infections in Germany reached its highest level since late April, while the UK added nearly 3,400 new cases with experts suggesting the country may need another lockdown in October to contain the pandemic.

On the political field, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen claimed it's still possible for the European Union to agree on a post-Brexit trade deal with the United Kingdom despite the fact London passed the Internal Market Bill. Meanwhile, traders await economic data from Germany and the UK that are set to be released before the opening bell and may hint the pace of the recovery from the crisis across the two leading European economies.

The DAX increased by 0.15% at 7:45 am CET, while the FTSE 100 declined 0.05% at the same time. The CAC 40 in Paris was flat at 7:57 am CET. The euro was virtually unchanged against the greenback, trading for 1.18520 at 7:44 am CET, while the pound slid 0.09% to go for $1.29621 at 7:49 am CET.

Breaking the News / GA

Happy Friday y’al
Cey looking great!

Sorry in my 1947 post yesterday I meant 'undervalued' not 'overvalued'. Typos happen but when you write the opposite of what you mean that is pretty bad!

Tibbs,
Thank you so much for your kind words. The trouble with being out, even partially and for a short period, is the fear of missing out. This company can move so fast that in a few days you can miss out on a 10% rise. Of course the opposite is true, it can also fall 10% in a few days, but I can't help but feel, as I think many of us long-suffering, old-timers do, that we are on the cusp of greatness for this share. Remember when the golden flip-flop party was set for 200p? That is a distant memory now and, perhaps greedily, I am eyeing 250 before year end and if not then certainly by when 2020 results are announced in Q1 next year. From there I am looking for 300p. The only issue is the longer the timescale you are looking at this share over, the less certainty around the price of gold - significant adverse movement there could wipe out all the positive developments of increased production (dare we dream of 600k plus from Sukari alone), some good licenses in the latest Egyptian bid, an end to the endless court case and the beginning of development in Africa. For the time being however I see nothing to suggest gold will do anything but continue its merry upward trend in the face of endless money printing and global macro-economic weakness.
Diamond encrusted golden flip-flop party anyone?
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Prof,
I am really glad that your sell buy back worked out well for you, quite an achievement in such unprecedented and unpredictable times.
Good to have you back up to full strength as it were, you have always been such a decent chap!

Tibbs

jUST IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Pierre Lassonde on $20,000 gold price and ‘most unbelievable margins’ ever

Should the Dow Jones to gold ratio retrace to 1:1, which it has on several occasions in the past, the gold price could climb to $15,000 to $20,000 an ounce assuming the metal catches up to the Dow, according to Pierre Lassonde, chair emeritus of Franco-Nevada.

Lassonde retired from the board of Franco-Nevada this year, but is still actively involved in the mining sector. Due to the expansion of gold prices this year, coupled with falling energy prices, margins in the industry have never been better, he noted.

“As the gold price goes up, that difference [in gold price and energy prices] will go right into the margins and you are seeing margin expansion. The gold miners have never had it so good. The margins they are producing are the fattest, the best, the absolute unbelievable margins they’ve ever had,” Lassonde told Kitco News.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-15/Pierre-Lassonde-on-20-000-gold-price-and-most-unbelievable-margins-ever.html

He's been gone just three months...

Is this another indication West Africa exploration has given way to mine development ?

Norman Bailie
Group Exploration & New Business Development
Company NameCentamin Egypt/Pharaoh Gold Mines
Dates EmployedFeb 2017 – May 2020
Employment Duration 3 yrs 4 mos

Thanks Razors. I agree that it would be surprising if CEY did not walk away with one of the prizes given their track record and one presumes network. I remain very confident in CEY's future and still feel that overall the SP is overvalued. I was just seeking capitalise on what looked like an over rapid rise in the ST. Let us hope for a favourable announcement ref licensing shortly and then an above expectation Q3 which I am, perhaps over optimistically, expecting.
Best wishes,
Prof

Cora Gold has just appointed Norman Bailie, ex-Centamin executive, as head of exploration. Having participated in the discovery of more than 30 million ounces in Africa, it will continue work aimed at delivering by the end of 2021 a definitive feasibility study for the Malian Sanankoro project.

Junior miner Cora Gold, listed on the London Stock Exchange's AIM market and active in gold exploration in West Africa, announced Thursday the appointment of Norman Bailie as exploration director with immediate effect.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/compagnie/1709-80293-mali-un-ancien-cadre-de-centamin-nomme-a-la-tete-de-l-exploration-chez-cora-gold

Well done ElProfessor, who knows what is the right position to be in but I think this comment from the July Q2 release has to point to the expectation of a favourable outcome form the licensing around and hence an upward reflection in the share price.
An update could come from Centamin at anytime.
The comment:
“ Centamin, with the only commercial gold mine in Egypt, believes there is significant untapped gold resources within the Arabian Nubian Shield, and is currently evaluating the opportunities presented by the current bid round. We look forward to updating our stakeholders in due course.”

Thanks all. Yes it would be £6.5k at 10p but I think it was closer to 9.5p. One of those times it works out. There have been plenty when it didn't.
Best wishes,
Prof

He sold at £2.20 or thereabouts and re-bought at £2.10 so that's 10p per share x 65000 shares. That's 6.5k isn't it? (i was wrong first time). In any case, a nice little bit extra made on the side. Well done.

I make it £1300

That must be about 8.5k profit? nicely done!

Pro, quadruple witching tomorrow, maybe more volatility to come?

Bought back the 65k shares sold earlier in the week at a mixture of just below and just above 210. Today's sell off seems overdone to me for not a lot of movement in gold.

The UK economy is being pushed further down the lavatory pan!

From this website-

(Alliance News) -Â The Bank of England on Thursday kept interest rates on hold, as expected, and said it is looking with regulators into how pushing Bank Rate into negative territory could be implemented if needed.

The nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%, while also voting to maintain the target for bond purchases at GBP745 billion.

The rate-setting body noted that the outlook for the economy remains "unusually uncertain", though said that recent data have been slightly stronger than expected.

The BoE expects gross domestic product in the third quarter to be around 7% below its level in the fourth quarter of 2019, "less weak than had been expected in the August Report."

"Administrative data suggest that the number of paid employees has fallen by around 700,000 between February and August. The number of furloughed workers has continued to decline; considerable uncertainty remains around the labour market after the government job support schemes unwind," the BoE said as it turned its eye to the labour market.

Inflation is expected to remain below 1% until early 2021, albeit "slightly higher than expected" at the time of the August monetary policy report.

"The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably," the BoE said.

Looking out, the central bank said recent upticks in Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world, including the UK, have the potential to weigh further on economic activity, though this is likely to be on a lesser scale than seen earlier in the year.

The MPC said it will continue to monitor the situation "closely" and stands ready to adjust monetary policy if needed. The committee will keep under review the possible actions that could be taken.

Minutes of the meeting showed: "The committee had discussed its policy toolkit, and the effectiveness of negative policy rates in particular, in the August Monetary Policy Report, in light of the decline in global equilibrium interest rates over a number of years. Subsequently, the MPC had been briefed on the Bank of England's plans to explore how a negative Bank Rate could be implemented effectively, should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it at some point during this period of low equilibrium rates. The Bank of England and the Prudential Regulation Authority will begin structured engagement on the operational considerations in 2020 Q4."

The pound was quoted at USD1.2902 after the BoE decision, having traded above the USD1.2960 mark prior to the announcement.

By Lucy Heming;Â lucyheming@alliancenews.com

Copyright 2020 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

Very valid points Rebess,
It would certainly emphasise just how farcical the court case stuck in limbo is .
Whatever happened to the SCC & LAW 32 ?
I wonder if Veritas mining (Lord king of the ringers company) will have been awarded a concession?

I think it's a reasonable expectation that a new licence in Egypt would reflect in a positive way upon the SP. - It would be a move away from being a single-mine-dependent company. - I believe the market would welcome the news. - IMO

Cowichan comments seem very logical, whatever is the outcome of this latest concession bid round Centamin still has Sukari, the only Egyptian gold mine actually producing the gold!

Prof

Just believe in gold, the other stuff is blowing in the wind...literally, and its a hot wind at that

best
the gnome

That’s what Powell said but it all depends on your view of where inflation will go as it is real interest rates that count, which are surprisingly 13 times higher In the UK than USA now: latest UK interest rate .1%, inflation .2% so real rate -.1%, latest USA interest rate 0% inflation and 1.3% so real rate -1.3%. With collapse in economies, and especially wages, some predict deflation, despite fed targeting 2%+; the Japanese have fought to get any inflation for 30 years and their QE hasn’t done it. However assuming all this money printing does create inflation, and real interest rates remain negative that should be good for gold. But that is not proven yet, nothing new yesterday, gold is still range bound and could equally break out down as up, as this correction probably has further to go, so you are probably a wiser man than me Prof in selling. I don’t try to time the market short term, so just hold, or reinvest the dividend, but this time mostly done that in Hoc as itching to go if/when PM,s rise