The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Ooops
Meant to say- of the dollar declined, it would do on that job report-
And when the dollar felines gold goes up
Of course the dollar declined - it would simon that jobs report
What a disparity in the two jobs reports released this week. Yesterday ADP released its private sector payrolls for June which came in more than twice the estimate of economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. Economists had forecast that the report would reveal that 220,000 jobs were added to private sector payrolls last month and the actual numbers showed that 497,000 jobs were added.
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the nonfarm payrolls report for last month. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast that the report would show an increase of 240,000 jobs were added. However, the actual numbers came in below that at 209,000 jobs were added in June, the smallest increase since 2020.
The softer employment numbers most likely will not be enough to change the resolve of the Federal Reserve as they consider raising rates at the next FOMC meeting. In addition, the rapid rise in wages adds to inflationary pressures. The lower numbers did not change market sentiment as to whether or not the Federal Reserve would implement a rate hike of ¼% at the end of the month.
In light of that, gold traded significantly higher. As of 5:40 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active August contract is fixed at $1930.50, up $15.10 or 0.79%. On the surface, this might appear as though traders actively bid the precious yellow metal higher which is not precisely accurate. The dollar had a strong decline losing 0.93% taking the index to 101.91.
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-07-07/Gold-prices-gain-as-jobs-report-comes-in-well-below-yesterday-s-ADP-report.html
They are running low, so much so they are willing to entice foreign residents thru simple purchase of dwellings. The more you pay for your dwelling, the longer you can stay! (Note: It's not a new concept - the US dollar amount to qualify were just DRASTICALLY reduced. And temp residency can be renewed indefinitely)
a $50,000 USD home buys you ONE year temporary residency
$100,00 USD home buys you THREE years temporary residency
$200,000 USD home buys you FIVE years temporary residency
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adsero_egypts-residency-program-activity-7074679992705572864-qE7S
Not a bad deal, considering house/condo prices are a fraction of what we're used to in the UK/US/Canada/Australia
Who's in? 007??
Marsa Alam has some stunning seaside properties - and you could check up on Sukari to report back to shareholders now and again...
On a not-so-sunny note - what happens if Egypt doesn't get enough US dollars to meet their importation demands? Already there is billions of product/foodstuff tied up in Egyptian ports waiting for payment in US dollars. Single country risk really, really sucks , Mr Horgan.
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Danielle DiMartino Booth, financial author and founder of QI Research, to address UK and US policy-making, before turning their attention to the wider geopolitical arena.
The two industry experts contrast the Federal Reserve’s stance on gold as an asset class with that of global central banks, and investigate who benefits from the conflict in Ukraine and escalating tensions between Taiwan and China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jljE0L_ACg&t=25s
There will always be a cost for waste clearance , but nowhere near the present which is really a catch up for near on a decade of near on non existent waste clearance and high grading, that said after this major clear-up which in essence may be regarded as a re sculpting of the open pit workings including the creation of additional and far easier access to the very important underground workings, so yes there will be a waste clearance cost but at far more manageable levels.
The waste clearance may have been covered in a Q1 results presentation. I recall something like it will be resolved by the end of this year. Will need to revisit CEO presentations but that would be the one to check out first.
Everyone keeps mentioning contract end, waste clear and so on and no one states the impact on aisc. When the mine is correctly run, there will always be an ongoing cost for clearance, but how much will it drop to?
Thanks Sotolo. I couldn't remember gold being that high then?? I hope we do see £2 again before too long and maybe even your £3.
Yes , lets hope the contract ends and costs fall, along with an increase in the price of gold
Mr T- what % of the aisc is the clearance form the issue, and will be removed when done that you are banking on? By this I mean what % drop when we are bau?
I hope so Mr T.
I think regular updates on the clearance would help a bit. If we get to a point where it is "should be finished in 6 months" or "Should be finished in 3 months" then that is something to look forward to that is not that far away--------and should give the share price a boot as AISC should drop quite a bit once the contract has ended.
Here is something (not Centamin related) for you to think about :-) -----------What happens if we go over to a cashless society? For QE if they cannot print money, do they just create some more electrical currency? I think part of the problem with Mortgage rates and high inflation now is that younger people have become used to low interest rates and paying for things without physical money, so they don't understand budgeting and saving.
Paul. Gold was up about $2100, costs were much lower back when I said in Aug 2020, when share price was a fair 230p (with profits near 3 times higher than now) that if this continues “With rising gold I raise my fair price of Cey from 230 to 240, I may have to upgrade my earlier 250 by sept and 300 by Xmas. “. MAY have to. Well the facts changed and as Keynes said “when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir”. Costs are a stunning 50% higher and gold 10% lower, so profit per ounce down from maybe $1200 to $450. We all non plus ed and wrong footed apart from maybe Mr Decker by the unforeseen wall collapse and all that ensued. Since it happened I have been sadly pretty right. Let’s hope costs begin to fall!
.
Gold just broke through the average price of the year. The ETFs are now finally moving up. I am mystified why this is stuck at such a low SP and do not believe it has anything to do with a subcontractor.
Hi Paul,
Its the clearance contact that's the brick on the share price now!
Once cleared and barring any unexpected bad news at these gold prices the SP rise should be quite dramatic!
Centamin average price for this year is 104.4p and the average futures price so far in 2023 was $1937 per ounce.
Currently $6 below the mean, but CEY only valued at 85.2% of the average mean value. So earnings 1% less in gold futures today they are -14.8% in the share price. The same issue exists with gold miner ETFs.
Simply statistics ,easily adjusted in the next month to suit.
You cannot get the truth from statistics.
But home sales and consruction are already entering recession.
Interest increases will make that worse, just like 10 years back.
Mr T---I think this share tends to get a bit of a quick rise and then sink back down again slowly so it feels painful. We know that it rose very quickly years ago and we now think that the figures and the dividends were being manipulated to enable certain people in on it to get out at a high share price.
Like you I doubt any of the other parcels of land will be mined in the near future and I cannot understand why Egypt/ Erma doesn't do better by Centamin to encourage other miners to start mining.
As you know, I would like to see regular director buys to give more confidence.
At least Martin Horgan has not over promised so far. I think we are working on an average price for gold at $1850? As always I hope we will hit or exceed targets in the next updates and a bit after that maybe some good news about clearing the waste away and an end date to that. If we get most of that and lower AISC then maybe Cowichan will buy some shares and post something positive.
I cannot remember the figures for ounces mined and AISC when they share took off to over £2 and Sotolo was predicting £3 (that seems so long ago now and £2 seems so far away) but hopefully we will start to get nearer those figures and costs without the bad practices that s-rew-d us over.
As numbers were lower than expected.
Time for Centamin to rally. Come on baby.
Hi Cowicahn,
To be honest I just expect this share price to go down every day now, so any rise is a nice surprise!
Nothing is ever simple in Eygpt it seems its mainly 'Jobs for the boys!" I very much doubt there will be any gold being mined from any of these new concessions for many years, if ever at all!
Delighted to be proved wrong of course!
Until we get rid of the cost of clearing "Pardey's pile of crap this share price is buggered!
Nothing from FTI Consulting as yet ?
centamin@fticonsulting.com yet, more jobs for the old pals?
They are forever changing their opinions on gold, likely because they don't really know and only care about shuffling the indices anyway!
(Kitco News) - The Federal Reserve's solidly hawkish stance on monetary policy is sapping momentum from the goldgold market, with one bank seeing prices holding relatively steady through the rest of the year.
In an update of their price forecasts, commodity analysts at Bank of America have downgraded their average annual price targets for precious metals across the board.
Looking at gold, Bank of America sees prices now averaging the year around $1,923 an ounce, down more than 4% from their previous average of $2,009 an ounce.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-06/Bank-of-America-downgrades-gold-silver-prices-for-2023-as-Fed-rate-hikes-keep-investors-away.html
The first Thursday of each month is invariably sandwiched between two job market reports, namely the ADP private sector payrolls report — released by human resources and management software and services provider Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) — and the Department of Labor's monthly non-farm payrolls report.
Invariably, both the reports move the markets, and are therefore termed as first-tier reports.
Ever wondered why two reports capable of spooking the markets come out within a gap of a day?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-report-differs-nfp-report-185002989.html
https://www.bullionvault.co.uk/gold-news/us-jobs-adp-040220144
https://ibkrcampus.com/traders-insight/securities/macro/non-farm-payrolls-vs-adp/
Because numbers go up if more people are employed it’s that simple. Jobless claims only reports what it says- not everyone immediately claims, as far as I’m aware I don’t see a regular stat stating job losses.
It is what it is so we have trade within the systems
Imperfections
European stock exchanges were mixed in the premarket hours on Friday as investors look to close up this week's trading with the release of several data in the region, including the industrial output in Germany, British house prices, and the unemployment rate in Switzerland.
At 8:00 am CET, the DAX fell 0.14%. The FTSE 100 lost 0.18%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was flat. The CAC 40 added 0.11%.
The euro and the British pound were flat against the dollar, selling at $1.08873 and $1.27420 at 7:58 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
Gold currently + .18%
One additional statistic that offers a divergence with the ADP numbers and probably Non Farm Pay roles later today. was the grand total of people in work shrank by 315,000. So how can monthly numbers go up when the national employment numbers are shrinking. Hence the theory of part-time second jobs being counted in the numbers.