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I hope so Mr T.
I think regular updates on the clearance would help a bit. If we get to a point where it is "should be finished in 6 months" or "Should be finished in 3 months" then that is something to look forward to that is not that far away--------and should give the share price a boot as AISC should drop quite a bit once the contract has ended.
Here is something (not Centamin related) for you to think about :-) -----------What happens if we go over to a cashless society? For QE if they cannot print money, do they just create some more electrical currency? I think part of the problem with Mortgage rates and high inflation now is that younger people have become used to low interest rates and paying for things without physical money, so they don't understand budgeting and saving.
Paul. Gold was up about $2100, costs were much lower back when I said in Aug 2020, when share price was a fair 230p (with profits near 3 times higher than now) that if this continues “With rising gold I raise my fair price of Cey from 230 to 240, I may have to upgrade my earlier 250 by sept and 300 by Xmas. “. MAY have to. Well the facts changed and as Keynes said “when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir”. Costs are a stunning 50% higher and gold 10% lower, so profit per ounce down from maybe $1200 to $450. We all non plus ed and wrong footed apart from maybe Mr Decker by the unforeseen wall collapse and all that ensued. Since it happened I have been sadly pretty right. Let’s hope costs begin to fall!
.
Gold just broke through the average price of the year. The ETFs are now finally moving up. I am mystified why this is stuck at such a low SP and do not believe it has anything to do with a subcontractor.
Hi Paul,
Its the clearance contact that's the brick on the share price now!
Once cleared and barring any unexpected bad news at these gold prices the SP rise should be quite dramatic!
Centamin average price for this year is 104.4p and the average futures price so far in 2023 was $1937 per ounce.
Currently $6 below the mean, but CEY only valued at 85.2% of the average mean value. So earnings 1% less in gold futures today they are -14.8% in the share price. The same issue exists with gold miner ETFs.
Simply statistics ,easily adjusted in the next month to suit.
You cannot get the truth from statistics.
But home sales and consruction are already entering recession.
Interest increases will make that worse, just like 10 years back.
Mr T---I think this share tends to get a bit of a quick rise and then sink back down again slowly so it feels painful. We know that it rose very quickly years ago and we now think that the figures and the dividends were being manipulated to enable certain people in on it to get out at a high share price.
Like you I doubt any of the other parcels of land will be mined in the near future and I cannot understand why Egypt/ Erma doesn't do better by Centamin to encourage other miners to start mining.
As you know, I would like to see regular director buys to give more confidence.
At least Martin Horgan has not over promised so far. I think we are working on an average price for gold at $1850? As always I hope we will hit or exceed targets in the next updates and a bit after that maybe some good news about clearing the waste away and an end date to that. If we get most of that and lower AISC then maybe Cowichan will buy some shares and post something positive.
I cannot remember the figures for ounces mined and AISC when they share took off to over £2 and Sotolo was predicting £3 (that seems so long ago now and £2 seems so far away) but hopefully we will start to get nearer those figures and costs without the bad practices that s-rew-d us over.
As numbers were lower than expected.
Time for Centamin to rally. Come on baby.
Hi Cowicahn,
To be honest I just expect this share price to go down every day now, so any rise is a nice surprise!
Nothing is ever simple in Eygpt it seems its mainly 'Jobs for the boys!" I very much doubt there will be any gold being mined from any of these new concessions for many years, if ever at all!
Delighted to be proved wrong of course!
Until we get rid of the cost of clearing "Pardey's pile of crap this share price is buggered!
Nothing from FTI Consulting as yet ?
centamin@fticonsulting.com yet, more jobs for the old pals?
They are forever changing their opinions on gold, likely because they don't really know and only care about shuffling the indices anyway!
(Kitco News) - The Federal Reserve's solidly hawkish stance on monetary policy is sapping momentum from the goldgold market, with one bank seeing prices holding relatively steady through the rest of the year.
In an update of their price forecasts, commodity analysts at Bank of America have downgraded their average annual price targets for precious metals across the board.
Looking at gold, Bank of America sees prices now averaging the year around $1,923 an ounce, down more than 4% from their previous average of $2,009 an ounce.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-06/Bank-of-America-downgrades-gold-silver-prices-for-2023-as-Fed-rate-hikes-keep-investors-away.html
The first Thursday of each month is invariably sandwiched between two job market reports, namely the ADP private sector payrolls report — released by human resources and management software and services provider Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) — and the Department of Labor's monthly non-farm payrolls report.
Invariably, both the reports move the markets, and are therefore termed as first-tier reports.
Ever wondered why two reports capable of spooking the markets come out within a gap of a day?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-report-differs-nfp-report-185002989.html
https://www.bullionvault.co.uk/gold-news/us-jobs-adp-040220144
https://ibkrcampus.com/traders-insight/securities/macro/non-farm-payrolls-vs-adp/
Because numbers go up if more people are employed it’s that simple. Jobless claims only reports what it says- not everyone immediately claims, as far as I’m aware I don’t see a regular stat stating job losses.
It is what it is so we have trade within the systems
Imperfections
European stock exchanges were mixed in the premarket hours on Friday as investors look to close up this week's trading with the release of several data in the region, including the industrial output in Germany, British house prices, and the unemployment rate in Switzerland.
At 8:00 am CET, the DAX fell 0.14%. The FTSE 100 lost 0.18%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was flat. The CAC 40 added 0.11%.
The euro and the British pound were flat against the dollar, selling at $1.08873 and $1.27420 at 7:58 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend.
Gold currently + .18%
One additional statistic that offers a divergence with the ADP numbers and probably Non Farm Pay roles later today. was the grand total of people in work shrank by 315,000. So how can monthly numbers go up when the national employment numbers are shrinking. Hence the theory of part-time second jobs being counted in the numbers.
More details;
USA ADP
Job numbers in manufacturing, information and finance are falling.
ISM reports recession and ISM services is rising, but showing late cycle growth.
Jobs increasing are in Leisure and hospitality (after all it is summer), trade and transport, education and health services.
71M USA citizens are on Medicare and this fuels health service spending supported and paid by the Government.
California is in recession and certainly going out to restaurants is in decline. The Carolinas are booming on the southwest coast of USA which are apparently having a construction boom. The midwestern States are now experiencing a big slow down and are clearly heading into a recession. The eastern seaboard States are braced for hurricane season and it is normal for USA workers to migrate there in anticipation of future work. A lot of the job activities are geared to repairing the damage afterwards. This of course is measured as positive GDP growth.
The FED has a problem as regional variations in the states clearly exist to people who live in those areas. Anything to do with making products outside of the military is probably in recession. Anything associated and attached to services where the government pays is rising (increased fiscal spend). Raising rates is not the answer unless they want a magnified deeper recession. Not surprised some hedge funds are preparing for a very hard landing.
Inverted yield curves suggesting major recession risk that is greater than 2008.
Tony
Like it has been assumed? Seems not.
The recent law which granted negotiating powers to Egypt's Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources makes amendments to these type of existing concession laws possible (in the following case it's for an oil/gas co.).
This *could* be good news for approving an amendment to the existing Sukari concession law 1994 to exploit newly discovered deposits surrounding Sukari - utilizing the existing plant/infrastructure.
A rare streamlining/cutting red tape effort by the Egyptians that apparently worked for Trident Petroleum Egypt. (And a rare positive post by Yours Truly - see I can be optimistic if the right occasion should arise)
-------------------------->>>>
posted 1hr ago
Great news!!!
My company’s concession commitment agreement amendment has been approved by the council of ministers.
A law licensing the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to contract with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and Trident Petroleum Egypt to amend the commitment agreement issued under the Law 204 of the year 2017 for the oil exploration, exploitation and development at Esh El-Mallaha Marine Field (Magawish).
This means that we have a lot of work to do…
Kindly wish us luck.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarafakhry_petroleum-work-development-activity-7082758771109769216-qOcx
Mr Tibbs they are cheap. The only negative stat is 5% appreciation in the pound, but they also have an additional 1.8M reserve ounces added (without a mine = $80 an ounce). They report on the Sukari expansion results in December and will identify how much of the depleted reserves are being replaced. In December last year 800,000 reserves were replaced and 1.3M resource ounces were added 13 Dec RNS 2022. So the -5% on the pound is off set by likely equal to the the reserve after recovering all 2023 mining. The Doropo reserves declared equal 6p on the share price. 5% of Centamin at peak price of 125p is 6.25p CEY share price and so they equal out.
Be nice to see Martin Horgan buy a million, after all he did say they were very cheap a these prices!
The higher interest rates , the stronger America gets. Latest stats show America is still in boom time. Looks to me that we are looking at least half percent rise to even one this year. Has to be the most robust economy on the planet.
Only took two days to have RSIs oversold and stochastics on zero. I have two bonds maturing next month and another later this month. Enough to double my Centamin position. Considering production is way higher than in H1 and 88p represented 1750 gold last year and at 1911 area it was 103p. The AISC is about the same and production this year is higher. Centamin is clobbered 17% lower with earnings far higher. Average gold price sold last year was 1789 and probably over 1925 so far this year. Massively undervalued.
Yes I agree Goldgnome
So this afternoon bought Soverigns
added considerably to what is becoming my hoard.
and the queen can eat her bread and honey.
Inflation not deflation in previous.
They include huge numbers of part time jobs for example weekend working jobs that people take on on top of a normal 5 day week job. What some people are doing to cope with inflation is to work more shifts or two jobs. This of course is not sustainable for more than say 6 months. The job numbers are simply measuring stress of main street in dealing with deflation as their savings are getting wiped out. The real growth or inflationary effect of the numbers is zero. It may however dampen recessionary impacts in some areas. The housing sector is clearly in recession and getting ignored.
This needs to be called out as the numbers are portrayed as a means to justify more rate hikes and deepen main street recession further.
In the title