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Hmm - I have an old (small holding) of CEY at 35p which had ballooned very nicely. My first reaction was a figurative shake of the head and put it down to the spotty performance of the management. Nevertheless I thought of doing a quick calculation which is as follows: Let's assume the management's estimate of the gold in the sector is correct and is lost. I.e. it will never be recovered. Let's next assume the AISC of this "high grade" gold is much lower than the quoted AISC of around 900. Let's reduce it to say 600. I think this is doubly conservative since not mining the sector will mean no remediation costs (which I assume to the captured) in the AISC. Looking at the production sharing agreement which is swinging from 60:40 to 50:50, already the Egyptian govt are taking the lions share of the net profit (it's hard to go further as I don't have access to the allowable costs CEY can deduct from revenue) but let's assume the Egyptian govt share 50% in the hit. The hit to CEY is thus as follows 90K times 1900 (current gold price) minus 600 divided by 2. Drum roll... which equals just under USD60m. And yet the value has dropped by GBP 400m. What am I missing? Anyway for the record I've bought at 1.621 - so feel free to shoot me down.
I was thinking the recent new-permit news and possibly something related to W. Africa, or, as was the case last year with Pardey, a take-over in the offing. - Cluthching at straws maybe in my frustration.
Prof I usually always agree with you but not that the 20% fall is overdone, seems about right or very kind to me; you cannot assume costs will remain constant, they are per ounce so fewer ounces means higher costs. 50% lost production this quarter will mean v low profit for it if any, and over the year 15% lost production plus say 10% rise in costs would mean instead or 515000 x $1000 at todays price less 52.5% , £190,000 , we would have 440k at $700 less 52.5%, £110,000, which is a reduction of 40% on this year's profit. Even with the fallen share price PE is up from 13 to 18 today. And this year we only have the problem only for the second half and presumably only the latter end of this quarter. If it were to continue all next year we could be looking at £1 at current gold prices. Hopefully however the market will look forward to a speedy recovery so it should only fall 10 or 20p from here or if we are lucky even less, but oversold....?
Well feel devastated at the moment but we have come quite away from the double digits we were at and as El Professor stated we would have been happy with this price a year ago. The trouble as my confidence grew I bought more at a much higher price as I am sure a lot on here have so still feeling a bit low, what we need now is a good rise in the gold price to cushion the blow, thanks again for making this board one of the best, I wish you all well.
Q3 is usually the confirmation quarter. - It is the quarter that indicates the likelihood of making forecast or otherwise. - It's the qtr that exposes the truth or the bull****. - When forecats are weighted towards back-end production, Q3 becomes the litmus-test. - This year it was slightly different in that H1 had set us on a good course where steady as she goes would be sufficient to meet targets. - But, as always with Centamin, there was a catch. - Wouldn't you know it! - For me a clear-pattern is emerging. - There is one other wishful thinking scenario, the SP is being trashed as an accomodation for insiders to take advantage of in the knowledge of some spectactular good-news that is in the pipe-line. - I wish. :-)
im sure the bloke operating the radar stability monitoring equipment had a bit of an inclining and flogged his shares yesterday, wouldnt mind being a fly on the wall in his house, he's best placed to know out of everybody.
Surely yes! The problem has been there for quite a while from the first rns! Like one or two other commentators, I have been seriously considering buying into CEY again for its stability... This director sale is very suspicious. Was there any knowledge of the slip earlier to shareholders? How long will it be before it is fixed?
HJ72, Agree completely. Less than a year ago the SP was in double figures. If you had offered us a SP knocking on the door or 170 back then I suspect most of us would have bitten your arm off. Best wishes, Prof
Looking back at what happened last year, there was an initial sell-off, a bit of a bounce and then renewed fall. Overall something like 142-104 so about 30%? Replicate that here and what are we looking at? About 140-150? Rebess, your comment yesterday was almost prophetic!
But, look at how the SP has increased. We don’t mind and expect fluctuations along the way as long as the general trend is upwards. Again no doubt that trend will continue considering the strong fundamentals for gold.
Hi Prof. - Not sure yet. - In the same way as we couldn't understand Pardey's actions last year. - They didn't make sense at the time and to a man we were baffled. - Shortly afterwards, it all made sense. -
On another note, also contained in today's RNS, details of Youseff's timely sale of shares at £2.11.
Looking back, the same thing happened last year at the same time. - The end of Q3. - The Pardey intervention kicked-in then and now this! - Coincidence or what? - Draw your own conclusions. - It's looking like a re-run in my book.
This is the biggest snake yet. - I wonder if there will be any news released with regards to their new-permit applications in an attempt to mitigate bad-news flow. - Are we seeing a deliberate attempt to trash the SP the same as happened last year. - So many questions running through my mind. - In which case, is there a requirement to create a buying opportunity for insiders with knowledge not possessed by the likes of us? - So many scenarios to consider, especially given that it is Centamin we are talking about and the history that goes with them.