Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Paul,
I appreciate on message boards anyone can be whoever they want to be and how does one really tell if those posting have integrity?
Let me be frank, I don't have any exclusive access to any behind the boardroom doors information, and to be fair neither has the man on the train, although he has been well informed on all manner of things over the years, but then how reliable is any information, for instance Pardey seems to have pulled the wool over the rest of the board in Jersey regarding what has been going on in the open pit for over 5 years, so if the board believe what they been told by a senior director in charge of Egyptian pit operations then its not unreasonable to expect that information to be believed as it filters down through the hierarchy and onto the shareholders.
In 2018 I was incensed when Pardey three weeks after trumpeting 580,000 ozs announced a serious guidance cut back due to hitting unexpected low grades, rubbish he was high grading in 2015 , he knew about the potential grade problems, this was made worse when by allowing an essential piece of plant LHDR to be run to almost self destruction without any credible back up or even the critically important spare parts immediately available.
But Pardey convinced most people that this was all normal in mining and carried on and the rest is history and we are where we are.
I have no doubt that the man on the train is as disappointed as the rest of us that he may have been mislead, it certainly wasn't his intention to mislead me and I certainly wouldn't intentionally mislead anyone on here.
Tibbs

The most significant Director deal in recent times was the sale by Youseff of 200,000 shares @ £2.11 in September. - Now that was perfect timing. - I wonder if he knew something? - :-)

Very interesting MrT and what an awful time that was for you. I agree that shorting should be banned. Hopefully we won't have those chancers from the other day back. Keep well.

ElProfessor, we are most touched! Also quite agree with you and Rebess on this. Hochschild, in its last results, just confirmed its poor figures from the Covid shutdowns, but immediately tumbled again, despite it being known news that should have been in the price. Therefore it is a bit of a worry if Cey just confirm the lower production, higher aisc and so much lower profit for 2021, as even though known the share prices may well sustain another hit, as Rebess points out has happened before. So let’s hope Cey confounds us with better news on the production plan, aisc, W.Africa, and new exploration tracts

Absolutely agree Mark,
Ten years or so back after replying to an offer of free reports on banks and the oil sector I started to receive unsolicited phone calls from several London brokers who were all trying to get me to transfer my portfolio and open an advisory CFD trading account with them, these telephone calls continued on a daily basis for several weeks until they tailed off to one particular broker, chatty Darren who contained to call on most afternoons
I was very wary of getting involved with CFD's despite Darren's claims that I could be earning huge profits trading CFD's by using my portfolio as surety against leverage, I said it t seemed too good to be true because although a great deal could be made in a very short time it seemed to me that even more could be lost even more quickly!
Cutting a long story short in a moment of weakness I was persuaded to open an advisory CFD trading account with Darren's company using the Saxo platform, on CFD advisery trading they charged £50 in and £50 out plus percentage on the trade value , some days I was receiving 10 plus telephone calls advising me to open and close positions, this continued for some months and although some trades did make a profit this was more often or not wiped out with trades that went wrong, I became ill through watching the value of my portfolio very significantly reduced whilst my leverage and trading cost spiralled at an alarming rate, of course whichever way the trades went Darren's firm always won!
Weekends were terrible worrying about the gap up or down and getting pushed through the stops either short or long whilst the tally of costs and loss of value of my portfolio was continuously clicking over on the Saxo live platform!
One Monday morning on seeing just how much I owed Saxo I realised this had to stop and called Darren to inform him, he couldn't understand,as out of over 4O trades he had recommended in the past month 30 had made a profit, quite true in a month after fee's and commission I had a profit of £320, Darren’s firm had made nearly £4,300, yet I had taken all the risk and in 12 months my portfolio had lost 30% in value!
Needless to say I closed the account with Darren’s firm, paid my debt to Saxo and vowed to never trade CFD's again and to also deter others from falling into the same trap!
I mention this because the posters that popped up unexpectedly the other day were typical of some of those that I encountered working at firms like Darren's.
I don't know if you are familiar with the T2W forum but some posters explain the panic tactics being used by unscrupulous brokers to part unwary clients from their money!
Until I got involved with CFD's I didn't realise that it was possible;le to profit from a share going down (shorting) ,I was always uneasy about trading short positions as I felt it was unethical to undermine the future prospects of a company and other investors.
In my opinion shorting should be banned.

Obviously DJ, I want you and your take on things to be correct. - I hope the market accepts that the bad-news is all accounted for in the current share-price. - If they do, it'll be a first. - But, you never know. - I express my opinion based upon my own experience with this share. - Btw, I don't regard the director purchases to be pointers to what's to come. - It's happened before in the aftermath of bad-news and for me they have no bearing on what's to come. - If they'd been significant purchases by the Chairman say or even Hogan, I might have viewed them in a different light.- If MH dips his hand into his pocket and puts his personal skin in the game, that for me would have more significance than the gesture made by two minor-directors who do as they are told. - But that is just my opinion and beyond myself doesn't amount to much.

Ref Director Buys.

Good the chair bought 100,000.
Not so interested in the CFO buying just 15,000 when he has loads.
Concerned that the new CEO has not yet bought any. Appreciate the point previously made about closed periods but it has not been closed since he arrived.

Hoping for the best on 02 Dec but very nervous after the last two bombshells. It was all looking so good a few months ago that I was expecting 300p before too long and even posted that if the FTSE100 companies suffered a further drawback and we kept doing well then it was not beyond the realms of imagination that we would break into the FTSE100.

Rise CEY. Sotolo has a house to build!

Best wishes to all,
Prof

>The bad news is out , let’s look to the directors buying at 150 , they are either nuts or confident

Or a bit of both

Regress it’s my belief that the numbers can only get better , we know that next year might be a striping year and 400,000 Oz year

The upside is they can prob choose to process the high grade if the price of gold is high , it’s not going anywhere nor has it been stolen !

Will be good to see the mine plan and when we will get to higher grade Again etc !

Again why would the directors buy at 150

Got to add confidence the ships turning now but it’s heavy and takes 12 months , but 12 months is nothing and the SP prices the future potential as well as the current situation.

Any signs the future is bright and its upwards we go.

Or good might lend a helping hand

The bad news is out , let’s look to the directors buying at 150 , they are either nuts or confident

Hi DJ
Much will depend I feel on the numbers projected in the plan. - Irrespective of longer-term expectations, if 2021 looks like being a disaster I think we'll see a flight from Centamin and the consequences reflected in the SP. - The SP as it currently stands is a direct consequence of appalling management. -Just because they've changed the boss, who, btw, has yet to prove himself, this will not easily be forgotten. IMO

Loa report is either going to be mediocre and then licence news to balance against it or all the good news in one day

Indeed and it seems to the same people, #DirtyShorters, popping up across the board

I note the doomsday posters have disappeared into the ether. Looking forward to the presentation on the 2nd. Strange we have heard nothing more on the licences. Even though it’s been reported in the press in Egypt.

My view is that we will see half of the African assets divested and the Better one brought on.

Clear 3 year mine plan set out

High grade zone mined next year into a higher gold price.

More exploration.

Awarding of licence blocks near to the mine.

Like the sound of the new guy seems to have a vision.

The centamin rollercoaster will odds on climb its summit again.

I've been a holder and reading this board for 7 years but had to register recently to see the chat? Mr Tibbles I read your posts. I understand you getting angry with "The Donald" and Brexit etc and I appreciate how frustrated you were last year? when you were on about getting out of here. Like many, I wish i'd had the sense. luck or b-lls to have got a fair lump out of here when we were over £2 rather than holding on for the rise to £3. Maybe next time eh? The roller coaster that is Centamin.
Is your source "the man on the train"? You have mentioned him many times, and whilst I dont doubt your integrity, he doesnt seem to be that well informed as he has missed the bad news we have had the last 3 years???

Who was it who said "Good times are coming. Good times are coming" earlier on this year? I think it was maybe someone that Siko mentioned?
Anyhow, lets hops that good times are coming and there is no more hidden shocks now a new bloke is in charge.

Siko. Thank you for your posts over the years. I appreciate you dont want to mislead anyone and you report what you find and try to explain what it means to the rest of us. I believe you are now invested here again? I hope that it comes good for you and for the long term investors on the board.
FIRST POST!

I could not agree more Mr T.
No more diversions , stick to the plan, less problems.

Lucky

FWIW I've recently bought into CEY with a view to be a LTH. I'm happy with the div yield (bought at 113). Div cover suggests this shouldn't be axed that easily. CEY doesn't have debt and generates cash. It can still grow via exploration in Egypt beyond Sukari or in West Africa. Also, I don't buy into the "vaccine ready by Xmas" story in the press. The PoG, IMO, is unlikely to completely collapse. On a day like today when we're talking more about restrictions, job losses, printing money, gold should hold up

As you say Mr Bond, MH is a very different chap, he sees and tells it as it is, he plans and executes the plan which will feed into the next planned stage, you will get my drift!
I get the impression that endless drilling to expose potential reserves and then not exploiting them is no longer an option, valuable assets should be realised while you have the chance or their value realised by other means.
Centamin should make the most of what it does best but by doing it properly and exploiting opportunity close at hand in a known environment!
So lets wait and see!

Guys,

Thanks a lot for the update.
Very helpful

Mr Bond,
Fair comments indeed it seems that despite the known risks (He was made aware in 2015) Pardey dug the company into a bit of a hole and then an even bigger hole with no easy way out, we all remeber the LHDR rig run at over limits until it blew up and there were no essentail spares on site,

"You might think that I couldn't possibly comment"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJFiByfiRTA

Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Thursday ahead of the updates on the current economic situation, heavily affected by the coronavirus pandemic, by several members of the European Central Bank (ECB). Germany will also see the results of the latest survey on consumer confidence in the country. Meanwhile, France stated it would spend €1.6 billion monthly to aid businesses affected by the pandemic, while the United Kingdom said it would invest £280 billion in the economic rebound.

The DAX traded 0.19% higher at 7:48 am CET, while at the same time, the FTSE 100 advanced by 0.13%, and the CAC 40 went up by 0.17%.

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Breaking the News / JR

Ah Mr T, you have heard something .
Perhaps Santa will come early this year.
Unless he catches the flue.
Off for my walk now.
GLA.

Thank you Mrtibbles

From conversations with well informed long time acquaintance and so as not to risk falling foul of any FCA regulations I am of the opinion that will it soon become apparent that everyone on this thread is on the right track!