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Hi Cowichan,
(Will foreign assets be safe in Egypt?)..
(Will Egypt nationalize foreign companies?)..
(Nationalization of gold reserves could be a real option)..
(Are Centamin's gold reserves actually safe ? It's a big unknown)..
I noticed that you keep repeating the same hint over and over, and I don't know why!!
I know that you are not a holder at the moment, the same as me, but why do you keep repeating this assumption??
Could you please direct me to one single report talking about Egypt MIGHT be nationalizing any asset? Or even thinking about it? Or any reporter thinking that this could happen because of the current financial situation in Egypt?
If you Google (could Egypt nationalize), you will only get results about the Suez Canal in 1956..
As you are posting here, so I take it you are still interested in this share, as I'm sure you are not posting here only to protect other investors and enlighten them.. and of course you are looking to buy again either at a price that attracts you, or subject to certain news being released, which is absolutely fine and fair, but while your are waiting for either to happen, I don't think there is any need to post things about nationalizing Alsukary, while it's only coming from your unfounded assumption, and you never mentioned this when you were a holder..
As an Egyptian and know a lot about Egypt, I could tell you that nationalization is not on the table at all.. full stop.. and it does not need an expert to tell you that..
Sorry if any of my assumptions are wrong..
July 25,2023
More than half of Egypt's 2023/24 budget is allocated to debt servicing.
Mada Masr reported that the debt situation is so precarious that, within government circles, the option “to voluntarily default on some of the debt and negotiate with creditors about a new payment schedule” is on the table.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/7/25/will-egypts-asset-sale-get-it-out-of-its-economic-hole
(and in regards to Egypt selling state assets to get some much needed cash fast, another article tells how it's going...)
“The government was pushing to sell certain companies at different times, trying to pit the various companies against each other to reach a higher sale price. But it did not only fail in achieving this, since the Gulf countries communicate with each other, but it also created political tension between Egypt and the three countries,” the analyst says.
As the attempts to play the various buyers off each other to get the highest payout made the negotiations drag on, Egypt’s bargaining position weakened due to the downward pressure on the pound.
“The power is always in the hands of the buyer. They are the ones with cash looking to invest. In the beginning, the offers were tempting, but the Egyptian side’s greed wasted a lot of time and led to the buyers’ accruing more power,” the analyst adds. “The buyers are of course in search of the best investment opportunity, which would come only with the devaluation of the pound.”
https://www.madamasr.com/en/2023/07/17/feature/economy/reaching-a-dead-end-where-egypt-and-the-imf-stand-on-the-stalled-loan-program/
-------------->>>>>>
The questions I ask myself:
What could a financial crisis do to foreign operating companies like Centamin - especially if the Egyptian pound crashes further and hyperinflation takes hold?
The answer was for Centamin's BOD to have diversified to reduce single country risk years and years ago -
however Mr Pardey's hit & miss tenure notwithstanding,
Centamin should have diversified when Mr Horgan & some brighter directors came in
Now the question becomes, will a rushed merger or sale be the 'preferred' solution to fix the single country risk once and for all ?
All they need do is put their shareholder's slush fund into an Egyptian bank - instead of London.
July 25, 2023
EGYPT FOREX
Egypt's two biggest state banks on Tuesday issued U.S. dollar-denominated certificates of deposit with high returns, in what appears to be the country's latest attempt to lure dollars away from the black market and back into the financial system.
The North African nation is grappling with a shortage of hard currency, with the Egyptian pound having lost nearly 50% of its value against the dollar in a series of steep devaluations since March 2022.
Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) are offering a three-year dollar-denominated deposit certificate with 9% annual interest to be paid upfront in Egyptian pounds.
The country pledged to move to a flexible exchange rate regime and reduce the state's footprint in the economy while boosting the private sector.
However, the first review under the IMF programme has been postponed as the exchange rate has remained steady at around 30.85 pounds to the dollar since March.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi appeared to rule out a further currency devaluation anytime soon in remarks made to a youth conference in June, saying such a move could harm national security and hurt Egyptian citizens.
-------------------------->>>>
Personal Opinion To Follow:
Government finances are generally bad in most countries (save perhaps those wealthy oil & gas exporters, go figure) but in Egypt the economic irregularities are papered over to a level that would make even China blush. A day of reckoning is coming - will foreign assets be safe?
Interesting notes Torn,
In Oz, there is a lot of pain, which seems to be driven from the mass immigration program the government has been running, This has spiked rental prices, putting renters in pain, and the interest rates which result from the Reserve Bank
response to Inflation (which has house prices and rents as a significant driver, courtesy of govt)...so a very large % of houses are feeling stress which is impacting on purchases, and on the story goes.~
The upward trend in salaries and wages, without anything close to a productivity increase is also creating significant pain
Hard not to see a drop in confidence
I am hoping future guidance holds and that AISC costs are on or below target. If they can update on exploratory drilling progress in Egypt that would be helpful and confirming reserves and resources to be updated in December.
In the meantime we get a positive CB confidence report trying to push up USD and pull down gold. However, reading the report shows USA families reducing spend on holidays, going to restaurants and gambling. However, they are spending a lot more on health and doing repairs within their homes (the idea of moving somewhere in the current market with a high mortgage deal looks bleak). The report suggests recession in Q4,but the optimism mainly arose because those on $100k a year or more are doing better which is certainly not the case in other income groups (something similar being seen in the UK). More low paid jobs arose in July which is usual prior to hurricane season (Stand-by jobs on retainer contracts).
Lol , the ****nal was not a rude word, just the real name for the “gunners” football team lol
I'd quite like the share price to rise after they announce that "Everything was on track to meet the upper levels of guidance---------------------and then we hit a bonanza grade and mined some big F---Off nuggets"
Well we could do with some cheer. :-)
lol/ just predicting what “experts” will claim after the rns tomorrow.
the fact is no one knows outside those in cey.
explanations after the event tend to be like football matches post match- eg ****nal win by 1-0 and make only one chance all game and they say “ sign of a good team, 1 chance and 1 goal, title contenders”… they miss the one chance and don’t score and the same commentators will say “you can’t hope to win a title only making one chance all game- hopeless and not title contenders”
Seems like you have all the bases covered Steve. - :)
Option 3) SP remains the same:
“ It was blindingly obvious to anyone with half a brain that targets would be met as Horgan and co have been very visible, so no surprises are what to be expected and steady as she goes. Inflation is on the way down but not quite fast enough to make a big difference so it’s obvious this won’t impact the SP until it’s accelerates down quicker or slows down slower. The FED decide later today which will decide on interest rates in the USA which drive gold prices- therefore not a lot would happen to the SP until then- anyone with half a brain on understanding the drivers for CEY and gold would know that”
What if there's no change in the SP?
Some funny posts here- tomorrow there will 2 types of posters following the quarterly & half year RNS, and this is what they will saying:
1) If the SP goes down:
" It was blindingly obvious to anyone with half a brain that Horgan and Co are constantly over promise and under deliver, so why would things be different this time? Inflation is high so it was obvious costs would be too, and the high level of legacy waste disposal won't be ending soo as they don't mention it (obvious!). People who think this stock is undervalued are idiots who are clueless about CEY and what it means to understand mining and share prices"
2)If the SP rises:
" It was blindingly obvious to anyone with half a brain that Horgan and Co are turning the company around, the last few RNS have constantly met production targets and they suffered high AISC like most due to inflation along with their legacy waste disposal which will soon be over, as will high inflation, as their main cost is energy and this has already deflated(any fool could have seen that). This stock obviously undervalued are idiots who are clueless about CEY and what it means to understand mining and share prices"
This is about the size of it.... only you can decide by selling or holding before tomorrow. GLA with whatever you decide...
Wise words indeed Market, I suppose like so many other private investors I admit it's shard to admit to being taken fir a sap, conned and that the Centamin BOD had our trousers down and shafted us with yet another Desert pyramid scheme!
Nobody believes in anything the company says any more because they have lied and cheated share holders so many times in the past, but then this is the case with so many of these mining companies, the investors take all the risks and pay the price whilst the directors fill their boots with swag!
I cant be bothered to listen to tomorrows broadcast, likely to be yet more bullsh*t and delays, so anything at all positive would certainly be an unexpected bonus!
Another day down, yet another kick in the crotch for long term share holders!
European stock exchanges were mostly lower ahead of the trading session on Tuesday after a string of preliminary business activity reports showed a further slowdown in July. In business news, Thales today announced it will acquire Imperva from Thoma Bravo in a $3.6 billion deal and Unilever's latest quarterly report is due shortly.
The DAX decreased by 0.14%, London's FTSE 100 lost 0.06%, the CAC 40 was flat and the EURO STOXX 50 declined 0.06% at 7:49 am CET.
The euro was 0.07% higher compared to the dollar, going for 1.10734 and the British pound was nearly unchanged at $1.28385 at 7:58 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
I seriosly question the Knowledge on this board -- still beleiving or are you realy. Past history has red flags all over it ----a good divi to keep you interseted back in 2012 the message was we are going to expand the operation, --Never happened then the crimal act on production figures the golden flip flops was in sight but not for us shareholders over £2 a share quicky evapored and the criminals done a runner still in my rocking chair and having a few drans but not from centamin. Good luck you need it
Is this the site?
https://conferencecalltranscripts.com/get_notified/
https://rb.gy/dnvdu
I read, but do not post comments, on stocktwits, which is another US stock chat board.
Like everywhere, a real mixed bag! More spicy language too quite often :)
Hi Rebess,
If Martin Horgan seriously has faith in his present strategy then surely it would make sense for him o retain his shares?
However having been led up the garden path and given as much baloney we we have over the years i won[t be surprised if we are deeply disappointed yet again!
It would be nice to have my expectation of yet more disappointment unrealised this time, but I expect that won't be the case!
On balance I would have thought the news Weds is likely to be positive from cey- Horgan has been very visible lately- but no one knows. Fed this week too- so could be very good or very bad week- no one knows for sure
We might find out this week why Horgan sold his shares. - I hope not.
Thanks everyone for your interaction this morning.
In the past I owned shares that were traded in the US and the chat that was the equivalent of LSE was called Investor Village. On the forum you could delete, edit etc. You could even see who had liked your posts. I am very respectful of everyone on this message board and I think like everyone am a little war, weary having failed to cash up back in January when the pps reached its highest of 1.27. Perhaps something unexpected will happen and our long suffering will be rewarded.
Best to you all.
Britain is facing a prolonged economic slump caused by higher interest rates, economists have warned, with the battle against inflation set to weigh on growth for years to come.
EY Item Club, the only private sector forecaster to use the same model as the Treasury, has slashed its forecast for growth in 2024 and 2025 as it said rates were now on track to be higher for longer.
In its latest quarterly update, the group said the economy is set to grow by 0.8pc next year, less than half its previous prediction of 1.9pc.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/britain-faces-years-stagnation-because-050000244.html
Hi Razor's,
Don't forget the dividend has been halved, yet the directors still received their bonus shares, for what clearing up the creation of mess they condoned! , Martin Horgan excluded of course.
Hi Razors,
I think the majority of shareholders realise that waste is created with any type of mining and as you refer to in your post the piles of it must be pretty obvious to all who visit the mine, which is why I Asked Andrew Pardey via telephone the 2018 telephone aware of the warnings issued in 2015 by Kees Dekker regrading the failure to manage the open pit properly due to the ongoing and prolonged high grading.
Andrew Pardey denied any knowledge of Kees Dekker's intimal 2015 article & the 2018 article which was strange because in 2015 he claimed to the editor of "Seeking Alpha" that Kees has based his findings on flawed data and wanted the article pulled, subsequently Kees Dekker offered to rewrite the article if Pardey cared to supply the correct data, Pardey then failed to supply the supposed correct data and all dialogue between all parties ceased and the article was published whilst Andrew Pardey and his Sukari team ,one must assume due to greed, complacency , ignorance with the condolence of the Jersey BOD including you will note Ross Jerrard carried on high grading in until the narrowly avoided catastrophe of a pitfall collapse.
https://rb.gy/ot14a
https://shorturl.at/kqtv4
As of note is that from 2015 there where several visits of corporate analysts to Sukari and not one of them mentioned any pile of uncleared waste and in fact the BOD claimed after Pardey was ejected that they "Where simply unaware there was no waste clearance!"
I have a dossier of my written and mostly ignored requests for information as to just what the situation was to Centamin Investor Relations, to be fair over the years "Buchanan"tried to be helpful with the information they had available and were far more helpful than Andrew Pardey or his team who practised a wall of silence with regard to my enquires , although obviously even "Buchanan had to operate within the perimeters and protocols of client who was keen to keep the pyramid scheme going until the inevitable crack forced the disclosure of the truth!
So after the claimed "Reset"why aren't we being given some regular updates now on the progress of the Sukari waste clearance now, after all this is the biggest parasite of AISC and a very substantial brick holding on the share price tail, not forgetting the loss of market trust that is!
I agree Paul, a healthy dividend keeps shareholders happy, me included.
For the near term I still have faith in the team, Horgan and Jerrard.