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Cowichan has forgotten to mention that at some point in the distant future the earth will be consumed by the star at the centre of its solar system. The impact that this calamitous event will have on Egypt and Centamin will be disastrous.
Was during the Gulf War Crisis. Further reading:
Economic Impact of the Crisis in Egypt
Marsha Pripstein Posusney In: 168 (January/February 1991)
Egypt was facing a severe foreign exchange shortage when the Gulf crisis broke out. Its debt arrears were piling up and it was finding it more and more difficult to obtain new loans. The Gulf crisis threatens to make this situation even worse. Here’s how:
on the brink of economic collapse, and risk major political disruptions. Accordingly, the US and other Western nations and the conservative Gulf monarchies have rallied to Egypt’s aid. This rescue has taken these forms:
Direct Aid and New Loans France will provide $50 million in emergency funds and a $143 million concessional loan. Germany will grant $135 million to finance imports and a concessional loan of $159 million, and will release $365 million in project loans that had been blocked due to Egypt’s arrears in debt service. Increased aid has also been announced by Denmark, Canada, Japan and Italy. The US has not directly increased aid but has upped the cash portion of the aid package from the US Agency for International Development. Grants are also coming in from Gulf countries and the Kuwaiti government in exile. The Gulf Cooperation Council is preparing some $1-2 billion a year. Egypt has reportedly already received $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia and $600 million from the UAE.
International Monetary Fund Deal After years of pushing Egypt to implement reforms that would make life more difficult for the poor, the IMF, at Washington’s behest, may now be willing to give Egypt a standby agreement on more favorable terms. The Fund, along with the World Bank, is actively lobbying Western nations to increase direct aid to Egypt.
Debt Forgiveness The Bush administration has won Congressional support for its proposal to cancel Egypt’s $7 billion military debt to the US. The Gulf states have reportedly canceled debts worth $7 to $9 billion.
An IMF accord will pave the way for a Paris Club deal with other creditor states worth around $7-8 billion. But what has happened represents a fundamental shift in the components of the external accounts in a way that makes Egypt less reliant on its own resources and more dependent on foreign aid. Worker remittances flowing into Egypt’s “hidden economy” were accessible to members of the lower classes, even in rural areas. Most of the funds made available as crisis relief will accrue to the state, where political and economic elites get first crack at them.
https://merip.org/1991/01/economic-impact-of-the-crisis-in-egypt/
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The last statement about elites skimming off the top of aid packages is particularly resonate in the current Sisi regime. So what has changed? Egypt is bankrupt again and needing a rescue package asap. Only thing different is this time it hasn't taken a war to ruin Egypt's economy, just a military dictator named Sisi
Hi mrtibbles,
I couldn't imagine a more iron clad contract than what currently exists between Centamin and Egypt - yet I point out the fact that it is possible with that last example. Personally, I worry more about political and fiscal instability causing disruptions with procurement of materials (explosives) and who knows what else (equipment)
Being a single source miner is a b*tch - the vulnerability ought to have been addressed years and years ago.
4 Aug 2023
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault Andrew Maguire is joined by Daniel Lacalle, the investment manager, author, and professor of Global Economics, to assess whether the Fed risks driving inflation with escalating rate hikes.
The industry experts discuss whether US Treasury Bonds can still be considered risk-free and whether a default is inevitable amid unrestrained borrowing, before turning to the politicisation of UK banks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqoM-doc4Uo&t=24s
Interesting Cowichan because I raised this issue several times with "Buchanan" and the comapny on several occasions and was told that the original contract terms are enshrined in law and even any new concessions are won on the new T & C there is no chance of any changes to the original Sukari term.
Siko has also explained and confirmed no chance of change several times in the past.
So what now?
CAIRO, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Central Bank of Egypt raised overnight interest rates by 100 basis points on Thursday in a surprise move, saying it sought to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations.
The lending rate was increased to 20.25% and the deposit rate to 19.25%, the bank's Monetary Policy Committee said in a statement.
Fifteen of 16 analysts polled by Reuters this week had expected the bank to leave rates unchanged
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/egypts-central-bank-raises-interest-rates-by-100-bps-2023-08-03/
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I'm sure it's nothing to worry about...
Hi Dasut,
I hope that you are well!
I know I am not alone in appreciating your informative posts based on years of experience in the business and indeed your in-depth understanding gained from professional experience at Sukari.
Although denied for may years and glossed over with Andrew Pardey's high grading it is apparent that Inherent grade problems are the norm fort the past and indeed for the future.
Eight years or so ago Kees Dekker said that the underground operations were critical to keeping the mine viable , certainly it was noticeable that as soon as Martin Horgan he confirmed just how crucial the underground workings were to to the whole Sukari operation!
Yet whilst the underground operations seem not have been regarded seriously how many years and how much money was spent on the Cleopatra slope that never seems to have resulted in anything!!
But thank you for your clarification of importance of losing that huge carbuncle of waste clearance !
Keep well
Tibbs
Paul, I wish I knew even hazarding a guess would only bring me to a target output of 500,000 ounces per annum which really isn't a guess because that is what is being reported. The important element is what the cost per ounce will be and whether there can be an improvement of the open pit grade and obviously a favourable Gold Price .
Also in addition to the waste clear up how much of the contract involves opening up ore bearing areas, "advance stripping" resulting in free dig.
I absolutely hate guessing because there are so many factors that are unknown which frustrates the hell out of me as gone are the days that a site visit would give me the warm fuzzy feeling or the run for the hills feeling.
Mr T gave an AISC cost reduction approx amount, I can't recall exactly what is was, but am sure he can provide again. It didn't seem unreasonable to me and would be good if this happens- equally if you look at latest forecast presentations for future AISC in their website, this could provide a clue too.
Hi Dasut. So (fingers crossed) as it looks like the waste clearance is supposed to be coming to an end in the middle of next year, do you think that the figures will significantly improve and would you like to hazard a guess? Obviously normal waste clearance will always have to continue, but the backlog should be cleared.
Also , do you think we will get more gold mined per year and would you like to guess on how many more ounces?
I understand we are largely tied to gold price so anything is at best an educated guess.
Thank you.
Be altered. I have an example of that exact thing happening:
Law 204 of the year 2017 was just changed by an act of parliament:
Sara FakhrySara Fakhry
• 2nd• 2nd
Geologist | Assistant Exploration Manager at Trident Petroleum Egypt | Speaker | Science Communicator | Mentor | TechWomen 2022 AlumniGeologist | Assistant Exploration Manager at Trident Petroleum Egypt | Speaker | Science Communicator | Mentor | TechWomen 2022 Alumni
1mo • Edited • 1mo • Edited •
Follow
Great news!!!
My company’s concession commitment agreement amendment has been approved by the council of ministers.
A law licensing the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to contract with the EGPC and Trident Petroleum Egypt to amend the commitment agreement issued under the Law 204 of the year 2017 for the oil exploration, exploitation and development at Esh El-Mallaha Marine Field (Magawish).
This means that we have a lot of work to do…
Kindly wish us luck.
#petroleum #work #development #oil #egypt #law #councils #exploration #development #trident #magawish #marine
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarafakhry_petroleum-work-development-activity-7082758771109769216-qOcx
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as you can see by the video and attached post - the Egyptian lawmakers changed the law to adjust the terms of the original agreement passed in Egypt's parliament in 2017
there is nothing preventing the same to happen to Centamin - except perhaps a challenge in Egyptian courts - we all know how successful that can be and how willing Centamin is of 'rocking the boat'
also, amendments to tax laws can no doubt supersede whatever benefit a 50/50 profit share has given Centamin when one considers import duties etc.
Bottom Line
Siko, please do keep posting about Egypt for the benefit of all the current Centamin shareholders.
I'm not posting here for the likes or supportive comments - I feel other long term share holders deserve honesty and clarity to decide their next move
On a personal note - my being invested in Centamin for over 13 years most definitely wins me the 'privilege' of posting on this forum - and those who imagine my posts could alter the share price for my benefit are simply looking for a way to disparage the validity of my concerns and change the subject
Who does their attacks against me benefit? Centamin's management - as it gives management the cover to continue to rape and pillage Centamin's assets for their own personal benefit with impunity
3bear I thoroughly agree that a safe incident free mine will normally be an efficient highly productive mine. Emphasis on the word normally because currently Sukari isn't an efficiently run mine. Why is because the strip ratio due to the abnormal waste removal inevitably means costs are abnormally high.
If however the cost reductions in other areas weren't in place then we would see far worse numbers, so credit due to the current management team for some good strategies.
I don't see Sukari becoming an efficient, productive acceptable profitable operation until the waste contract has finished.
I generally read and hear good things happening at Sukari and that they are pretty much over the major hurdles created by the less than efficient few years prior to 2020.
The proof of the restructuring of management and the operations will not be fully understood until we see a mining operation not a mining operation with an expensive non profitable muck shifting project carbuncle needing to be lanced and removed.
Unfortunately the carbuncle has taken years to develop and will take a little longer to be removed.
Payrolls miss which is good- US employment good which is not so good, however most commentary (SO FAR) seems to be good for gold- here's hoping it continues...
Why gold futures volume is so high and spot gold volumes are so small.
Hi Siko, fair and valid comments!
Unfortunately as with so many countries the world over the ordinary people are lovely and deserve better , its the greedy self serving out of touch politicians and rulers that are so desperate to stay on the gravy train so they continue to kick that very flawed can down the road to keep the status quo, or even grab a bit more, that will always be the problem for the foreseeable future
Keep well!
Tibbs
Fair comments and good points Daz!
I too hope for proof of the plans success
Tibbs
Hi Paul,
I'm glad that you understand what I am getting at, you will likely remember when I had been given in good faith by others that the "Good times were coming", they were as dismayed as I when once again our hopes where dashed by supposed unexpected occurrences and I was certainly more than dismayed when I realised that I had in some respects, albeit unintentionally let others like yourself down.
My acquaintance who used to pass on what they believed to reliable information is now as cautious as I about taking anything the company says on face value, its unfortunate that we have doubts about what may be truthful updates and claims, but after being deliberately misinformed by those who should have behaved more honourably and until there is actual evidence of AISC at more reasonable levels, a sustained delivery of predicted guidance and some substantial improvement the the share price and dividend then I urge everyone to view Centamin with caution!
I will be more than delighted if all my suspicions are proven to be unfounded!
Keep well!
Tibbs
All depends what is reported today at 13:30- need a miss else
Gold will go down further and cey with it- else opposite
Data from USA lay off tracker
Yellow Corp 30,000 job losses 31 July
CVS 5,000 2 days ago,
FEDEX 280 jobs in Texas as seeing recession impacts.
Microsoft 1,000 jobs late July.
Biogen 1,000 jobs late July 1/8 th of workforce.
A lot of smaller companies facing cash flow crisis.
I'd love it if the plan came together Daz.
I understand where Mr T is coming from and the whole thing about the wall. I also accept that sensors had only detected tiny movement-------but I think the wall did actually need dealing with before it became dangerous and to open up other areas of the mine. It could probably been done at a slower pace over a longer time, but it was probably thought that it was worth the (not exactly) short term pain for the hopeful long term gain to be had from opening up other areas.
TIME WILL TELL -----And I'm hoping the plan comes together and we get more gold out of the ground at lower costs, make more profit and get a decent dividend again, without dodgy practices. If it does come together like that, then the share price should start to fly.
If we get decent profits and a decent dividend or special dividend, I think the market would react.
The number one risk appears to be USA Treasuries increasing in the interest rate they are offering which may depress gold prices. However, we have a backdrop of USA data manipulating inflation through Government give aways to students, via health and social welfare, by releasing millions of barrels of strategic oil supplies which help subsidise nearly everything not just gasoline at the pump. The rate of growth of fiscal expenditure is taking off in USA and hence 300 billion plus in long dated Treasuries. USA is already on 125% GDP ratio on debt and it was taken down by Fitch for good reason.
Yellen claimed USA was the least dirty shirt compared to others yet an examination covered by an analyst on Bloomberg could site 9 other triple AAA rated Fitch ratings that were vastly better shape than USA and the down rating on lifting government debt that does not appear to have a ceiling to 2025 raises a lot of concerns.
Today we have make believe NFP numbers as August is usually heavily revised. Many people are on holiday in USA in August and the return data is reliant on assumption inputted by officials on non-returns. September has a similar problem if data was fractionally dependent on August collection. There is significant evidence of companies not sending in data allowing officials to fudge data on what they collect. The key may therefore looking at numbers of business failures which are increasing in USA amongst smaller companies.
Overall, I see stagflation and that history suggests that gold tends to remain fairly supportive in those circumstances regardless of higher long term rates. I also question who wants to really buy USA Treasuries from abroad. I was under the impression the FED could end up being the only buying source along with any banks they can bully to buy them as they will bail them out later on with money printing and currency debasement.
I therefore hold for better times with Centamin.
I concur with Siko's observation. It is quite peculiar for a non-investor to linger on a board without any investment, merely to make disparaging remarks. The envisioned transformation in Egypt, which Cowichan is anticipating, appears distant. However, it seems that his true intention is not to advocate for change in Egypt but rather to generate pessimism and seize an advantageous position at the cost of others.
Cowichan,
By the way, I stated many times before that I don't hold any Centamin shares as I don't have the money to do so, hence my posts are only replies to comments regarding Egypt and the things that could be misunderstood or misrepresented about what goes on in Egypt.. I'm Egyptian, I love my country and will defend it when appropriate.. saying that, of course there are many bad things in Egypt, very bad indeed..
You will see that I don't reply to comments like (share price will go down) or (management of Centamin is bad), because that has nothing to do with me..
But to be honest, and as my personal view, and I could well be wrong, if you are not going to invest in Centamin untill Egypt reboots (as you stated before), then you will be waiting for years.. so you may as well move on and look for other better opportunities to invest in.. it's just very strange that you can't find one positive thing about the company, and you are still interested in it..
Cowichan,
Is that lawyer aware of the details of law 222 year 1994 (Centamin concession agreement) which clearly states Centamin' exemption from any taxes? I posted here before a link to the full details of the law/concession.
Does he know it's a law? Which requires parliamentary agreement to change any of its details, and that was why the Administrative Court did not even consider Alfakharany's request to cancel it?
I understand of course he is a specialized in the tax subject in Egypt, but he may not be aware of Centamin's law because tax lawyers in Egypt would not come across it.
Also in Arabic, Point (K) is clearly talking about determining the cases in which dividend (profits) distributions are subject to taxes, so this will affect people's income, not the company. (Companies' profit share) in that sentence, in Arabic, is reflecting the dividend that the share holders would get, not the(profit share) as the 50/50 between Egypt/Centamin..
Tibbs, reminiscing about the past can be a tempting exercise, one must acknowledge that mere discussions won't alter the current reality that management is achieving their desired projections, while significantly reducing waste. The implementation of Horgan's strategies appears to be progressing seamlessly as per the intended plan. 2023 year holds the promise of a remarkable development in the form of the discovery of underground bonanza high grades and the seamless integration of these findings into the underground mining plan has the potential to yield a substantial increase in output for the year 2024, potentially surpassing the projected 500,000 oz by an impressive 50-100k oz. As a consequence of these developments, the opportunity to invest at this juncture is obviously an enticing prospect. Centamin finds itself amidst a period of growth, with a convergence of accomplishments and promising prospects that make it a particularly appealing and opportune moment for investors seeking to capitalize on the company's positive trajectory. Exciting stuff, we’ll see…one morning we’ll wake up to an RNS and Boom!
In the words of John "Hannibal" Smith “I love it when a plan comes together” and ‘Hannibal Horgan’ has put together an A-team that is capable of it.