London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi Cowichan..
It's me again.. and here are my replies to all your recent posts about Egypt..
6th Aug: Egypt's public schools..
Private tutors and lessons in Egypt have been a well known thing for decades now.. I took some when I was in school in the 80s.. and so did my brothers and sister before me.. I can't understand what the issue or its significance is now, or how this is an indication about Egypt's current economy situation, or how even this could affect Centamin..
--------
9th Aug: Egyptian expats can buy off their mandatory military service obligations by paying $5,000 in US dollars..
And? It's actually a good income for the country and a good opportunity for some expats.. Egypt's population is around 110 millions.. the army doesn't need all the mandatory numbers.. some expats will be happy to pay to get the exemption.. my nephew is one of them.. and they asked for the payment to be in Abu Dhabi because Egypt is entering in a contract with UAE worth around 400 million dollars to buy wheat.. for those who don't want to pay, then nothing has changed.. I myself have completed my mandatory military service in Egypt.. I might have chosen to pay if I was offered an exemption at the time..
----------
10th Aug: Egypt does not have the dollars to import needed fuel..
That was your chosen title for your post, while the actual article you posted stated (Egypt's PM said: It is an additional burden that the country will be able to provide).. Also I don't know if you are still following the situation in Egypt, but the electricity shortage situation is getting better, not worse.. it's still not good of course, and they are still cutting the power supply, but not as bad as before.. my mum used to get the electricity cut 3 hours a day in July, now it's one hour..
-----------
15th Aug: Coventry University’s Egypt..
Could you explain to me in figures how the Egyptian pound devaluation would push CEY's AISC upwards, when CEY's income is in US dollars?
In the example you are using, in Coventry University’s Egypt site it states (No annual increase applied on the tuition fees for the 2023/24 academic year. Any difference in the fees is only due to the ongoing devaluation waves of the Egyptian Pound).. so it's the same amount in English pound (or dollars)..
https://tkh.edu.eg/tuition-coventry/
so while the value of the Egyptian pound has halved, do you think Centamin has doubled the wages of the Egyptian workers who get paid in Egyptian pound? Of course not.. would you class that as a saving for Centamin whose income is in dollars?
Once again, I'm not saying the situation in Egypt is good, not at all, Egypt is a 3rd world country, the economy is bad, and has been getting worse, and people are suffering.. I'm just putting the facts right without exaggeration..
Siko
A bit off topic (but highly relevant to Centamin investors) my other Egypt investment - energy
An excerpt from VAALCO Energy's Q2 results :
Second quarter of 2023 realized pricing (net of royalties) was down 10% compared to the first quarter of 2023 and decreased 35% compared to the second quarter of 2022. This was driven by lower commodity pricing, higher royalty costs, as well as Egyptian sales in the second quarter that were sold domestically resulting in a $10 per BOE reduction in price achieved quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter, the Company expects to sell an Egyptian export cargo offshore which should improve the pricing.
Foreign income taxes for Gabon and Egypt are settled by the government taking their oil in-kind.
VAALCO continues to work with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation on both collections and offsets and expects to have a third quarter 2023 export cargo offshore of around 500,000 barrels.
https://www.vaalco.com/investors/rns-releases
--------------------------->>>>
Egypt changes the rules, makes negotiating difficult and basically takes the stance of 'my way or the highway' when it comes to extractive industries - yes it's been that way for a long time but it's getting worse as the country is increasingly strapped for cash
VAALCO's above statement 'continue to work with Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation on both collections and offsets' is polite talk for 'these b@stards are holding us over a barrel' , literally
I really don't know if the risk is still worth it (for me) when safer jurisdictions are not hard to come by
The point I was making isn't about the lawsuit at the University or the Egyptian law - but the mere fact tuition rates were doubled from last year - this is due to rampant inflation in Egypt which is much higher than many other countries
this foreign university isn't under the artificial umbrella that most other publicly or military controlled entities in Egypt operate - thus the true cost increases are necessarily passed on
to reiterate the point - Centamin faces uniquely higher cost pressures because they operate in Egypt - as a comparison both Newmont and Barrick's Q1’23 AISC were up by 13% q/q to US$1,376/oz & up 10% q/q to US$1,370/oz respectively
once price agreements with suppliers are renegotiated/renewed Centamin's AISC will rise considerably more than country's with lower inflation
"The same is true for Centamin - expect AISC upward pressure"
How is this so Cowichan? Please kindly elaborate.
The problem the University are facing is a a legal price cap on fees, I am not aware of one as far as Centamin is concerned.
The fact of inflation is understood but is there a law restricting
An article for those who claim Egypt's currency devaluation is a boon for Centamin - read this:
August 15, 2023
LEGALEGYPTEDUCATION
Egypt - Parents of students at Coventry University’s Egypt branch have submitted an official objection to the university’s decision to increase annual tuition fees by more than 100%.
The parents say the Coventry University’s decision is illegal, as it violates Egyptian law. Article 18 of Law No. 162 of 2018 regarding the establishment and organization of branches of foreign universities and university institutions within Egypt states that tuition fees must be collected in Egyptian pounds.
The law also prohibits universities from increasing tuition fees after students have enrolled, except in percentages that were agreed upon in advance.
Moreover, Law No. 194 of the year 2020 of the Central Bank and Banking System stipulates that “dealings within Egypt shall be in Egyptian pounds.” The regulations of the Ministry of Higher Education also stipulate that the permitted annual increase in tuition fees in Egyptian pounds is 7%.
The parents also say Coventry University’s decision is unfair, as it comes at a time when the Egyptian economy is struggling. Many parents are unable to afford the increased tuition fees, and they are concerned that their children will be forced to drop out of school.
https://www.zawya.com/en/legal/regulations/parents-of-coventry-university-egypt-students-object-to-illegal-tuition-hike-vik5uwem
--------------------------->>>
Summary:
Egypt pound devaluation and rampant inflation are forcing a foreign owned school to double tuition to stay afloat. Input costs are up whether goods/services are acquired locally or abroad. The same is true for Centamin - expect AISC upward pressure
Hi sure there will never be a BRICS currency
but more and more countries are trading for goods in their own currency. Oil will be the last straw for US to start panicking, why?
Because soon countries will realise how artificial are valuations of many commodities, traded on virtual exchanges in USD without fundamentals/physical backings.
Hence the real free market will take place, where every producing country will be able to set its own price and compete against other producing countries.
Anything made in USA and denominated in USD will be very very expensive......
It will take time but will happen
Hi Cowichan,
It's Putin who is desperate to get other counties to adopt BRICS, but it will only ever be an alternative currency used by a few when it suits.
People's Daily, China
@PDChina
Argentina’s far-right outsider candidate Javier Milei, who wants to abolish the central bank and adopt the US dollar as the country’s currency, received the most primary votes for presidential candidates in the October general election, media reported on Monday.
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1691168310132641792
Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
I rather doubt there will ever be a BRICs currency in any real sense. India doesn't want it. And at the end of the day the only logical way to make it work would be to have other currencies orbiting around the yuan, which Russia may do b/c it has no choice but others won't
https://twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status/1691474290833555456
Rebought the trading account sold.
1 minute chart has gold moving out of the channel.
We have got a bounce as it tries to move out of the down channel.
Lionel Barts lyrics come to mind.
This life.
One thing counts.
In the Bank large amounts.
Im afraid these dont grow on trees
You got to pick a pocket or two
Boys.
You got to ,etc.
Wall street and FEDs philosophy, panic gold traders if we can.
Top side of channel just tested at 1907 on the spot. With an hour and half to go I think we may just about close on 1900 gold.
The 1 hour descending gold spot channel continues and the bottom of the channel is now at $1896. This would put CEY onto the first key support line or a few tenths of a penny under. 88.1-88.3 is possible at the close. Drip torture by the hour.
It's tough to be optimistic here- when you get the constant drip drip drop... the FED don't meet for a while to spice things up either.
PM's are struggling.
88.4, 87.8 and 87.3p This is the key battle zone to hold support.
The following support lines are at 83.7 and then around 81p. Probably do not come into play if $1890 gold holds.
Mr T
The elephant in the room are humans exhaling carbon dioxide. 7 billion people exhale 1.7 gigatons into the atmosphere equivalent to 7% of that amount released by fossil fuels each person released 2.3 pounds (0.66kg) of carbon a day. I am just waiting for the mayor of London to levy a baby tax and exhaled air tax for adults for impacting the climate by just breathing. They might have an extra tax for people who go out running and produce more carbon dioxide. Tony.
Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still. However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries. There is a time lag between what we do and when we feel it, but that lag is less than a decade.
While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever. The benefits of reduced greenhouse gas emissions occur on the same timescale as the political decisions that lead to those reductions.
https://t.ly/pQ1tA
If 1902 support line goes, I would not be surprised if CEY is reading 88.x
Still in continuation. Bottom of the channel now at 1900 spot gold.
China situation looks grim this morning. USA Bond interest rate is higher. Perhaps raises the possibility of whether China is selling more USA Treasuries.
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Tuesday in anticipation of the newest updates on the United Kingdom's unemployment rate, and Germany and the Eurozone's economic sentiment.
The DAX advanced by 0.35% at 7:27 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.16%. The CAC 40 gained 0.35%. The Eurostoxx 50 grew by 0.38%.
Both the euro and the pound sterling stood flat against the United States dollar at 7:33 am CET, selling for $1.09105 and $1.26861, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
"𝘕𝘰 𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘣𝘺 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦.”
Mother Erath has been so badly damaged by Mankind's greed and stupidity that it may not be able to cope this time!
No point concerning ourselves with Centamin because ihe share price is well and truly buggered anyway until the AiSC are drastically reduced !
Mr T, in that report on the climate there are to many "shoulds".
Why are you bothered you and everyone here now reading this "should " be gone forever.
Just doom and gloom ,not even considering future improvements in technology.
Mother Earth has coped with climate change for millions of years,and coped very well.
Climate projections show that Egypt will continue to experience a higher level of warming than the world average.1 Compared with the pre-industrial period, temperatures in 2081-2100 could be around 2.5°C higher in a low-emissions scenario2 and around 6°C in a high-emissions scenario.3 The warming, coupled with urbanisation and population growth, is expected to trigger a significant increase in extreme heat events and electricity demand for cooling.
The combination of increasing electricity consumption for cooling and decreasing generation efficiency from gas, solar and wind power plants could add strain to Egypt’s electricity systems. Climate resilience measures could help its electricity systems cope better with the adverse impacts of rising temperatures and heatwaves; possible examples include incorporating climate impact assessment into energy planning, additional cooling systems for thermal power plants, innovative design to cope with higher temperatures, improved energy efficiency and behavioural change.
https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-resilience-for-energy-transition-in-egypt
Not convinced on recession at all- heard it all for the past few years and again at the start of 2023. Heard a &p will drop the below 3,300 and yet here we are with at near 4,500 and all data showing strong economy despite tightening which will end soon or has ended. In any case, recession is bad for cey too.
Hi Steve
I took some off on two positions, at 96.6p at a profit (ISA) and 91.66 (1/3 of the remaining holding at a very small loss) in trading account. The remainder I have left on for the longer term as investment. Positions taken off are acting as a short and those left cover upside if it happens. So I am covering positions in both directions. I have a lot of confidence in CEY and gold as we get well into Q4. I believe a rather serious recession is now unfolding in USA. A lot of pumping to buy equities is going on Bloomberg when people can earn far more on short term bond holdings.