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Hi Nunquam, exactly, why is the market valuing this at 85p when according to Tornado's analysis it should be over a £1.00?
Nobody believes the company any more!
Remands me of when RBS seemed very cheap!
Best
Tibbs
Hi Paul,
Yes, we can live in hope can't we!
Keep Well!
Tibbs
Probably not a good sign, but I have bought a few more Centamin shares. They do seem cheap. Are there problems in Egypt that are depressing the shares ? I think I am tempted to increase my holdings at these levels. But then again I though Marconi shares were cheap before the went bust !
Equities in Europe traded lower n the premarket on Thursday in anticipation of the newest update on the trade balance in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the United States Federal Reserve warned about the possibility of raising interest rates further if fighting inflation requires so.
The DAX decreased by 0.29% at 8:00 am CET. The FTSE 100 slipped by 0.43%. The CAC 40 fell by 0.48%. The Eurostoxx 50 went down by 0.78%.
The euro lost 0.06% to the US dollar at 8:01 am CET to sell for $1.08722. At the same time, the pound sterling declined by 0.07% against the greenback to go for $1.27233.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
An excellent assessment Tornado
My last comment was totally misinterpreted by Cowichan. I gave details of 184M from new investors that will probably appear in the 2023 annual report next year and what we got was his list of those who sold from his previous post. The reasons why institutions sell could be a variety of reasons like another part of their portfolio has got absolutely hammered and they had to sell other assets. It may have nothing to do with Centamin.
What we know is that 2023 interim report was 426M revenue. This was expected and similar to 2020 when they earned $828M Revenue for the entire year. The company July revenue will have taken Centamin up to $500M and I would estimated up to today it will have reached around $535M. If the company only received an average revenue price of $1700 per ounce for the remainder of 2023 and hit 465,000 ounce production target the Revenue would exceed $890M and beat those of 2020. 100,000 ounces is protected by a put at $1875 over the coming 5 months.
The company profits were $91M in H1.(21.46% of Revenue). Production is expected to be 22% higher in H2. It is likely that after 32 weeks of this year total profits are probably $116M. The put profits of 100,000 ounces (11 weeks production), should give $38M profits. So 95,000 ounces which is 10 /11 weeks production has an unknown revenue and profit. What is most likely achieved is $154M on what we know equals the entirety of 2021 profit results. Lets take a really low gold price at $1700 for 95,000 for the remaining 10 weeks of the year. It gives 161M revenue and around $21M profit. Company profits at that gold price would exceed those of 2022 by $3M. The company share price should therefore mirror the average of last year at 106p providing all mined out reserves were replaced. If nothing was replaced on the reserves the average share price would fall to around 100p. The company updates replaced reserves in December.
If anyone wants to have a look at the outstanding amount the CBE owes Centamin as of year end 2022 it's on page 199 here :
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
albeit in very small print
However we are 8 months into 2023 - and as the total amount outstanding to Centamin may be approaching $100 million US dollars for 2021, 2022 & 2023 combined I've posted a note on LinkedIn asking Centamin to respond
As Siko says, he has no idea about this amount outstanding , and the CBE could ostensibly print money to pay for it, although I suppose any and all Central Banks could print money to buy gold - maybe they do?
But, if it was that easy - the CBE would have printed money to pay their bills instead of their government borrowing billions from other Arab states, the World Bank and the IMF - then Egypt wouldn't be paying 60% of their revenue as interest on their debt - but their money would also be worthless, so there's that...
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-activity-7097677235167363072-dSXM
PS - an alghad news journalist may be doing a story about this and other Centamin issues in the coming weeks , he can be contacted here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mena-habeeb-egypt/
The agreement started in 2017.
The CBE gives Centamin 50 million Egyptian pounds a month, and in returns, Centamin gives the CBE gold worth the equivalent amount in US dollars according to the international price of gold and according to the USD/Egyptian pound exchange rate.
This agreement gives the CBE the opportunity to increase the national gold reserve, while paying in local currency, so it does not affect the foreign currency reserve.
Also Centamin is not losing anything as it needs local currency anyway to pay the workers and all the local expenses.
In 2021, this amount increased to 80 million Egyptian pounds per month.
With the current exchange rate, this comes to around 2.5 million dollars a month..
And yes, it will cost the CBE double the amount of local currency now to purchase gold, or they will get half the amount of gold for the same money due to the Egyptian pound devaluation..
I have no idea about any outstanding balance owing.. we are talking about the CBE.. They could always print Egyptian money to purchase gold!!
Whats your problem they pay and get at market price.
As for if its fair, ask the Egyptian Government to explain to you.
As for non payment ask the Government when.
As for your thinking, its confused and muddled.
Do you know if the CBE pays Centamin solely in Egyptian pounds for their monthly gold purchases?
I was under the impression they did - which facilitates Centamin in acquiring local currency to pay worker salaries and local procurement. If so, does the CBE now pay nearly double per ounce of gold as they did last year? Or does the CBE get a discounted price from Centamin?
If the CBE pays double because of the currency devaluation - in your opinion - is that a good use of government resources in such a time of hardship for the Egyptian people? And if the CBE gets a discount on the gold it 'purchases' - is that fair to Centamin shareholders?
--------------------------->>>
a recent news article from Egypt
August 14, 2023
Egypt’s gold reserves rise by 24 percent in first half of 2023
Egypt ranked fifth in the Arab world and 31st globally among gold-possessing countries after its gold reserves rose by 24 percent to reach 125.8 tons until the end of the first half of 2023, economist Ashraf Ghorab announced.
Statistics indicate that the central bank seeks to increase the strategic reserves of gold to break the barrier of 200 tons
https://www.egyptindependent.com/egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-in-first-half-of-2023/
-------------------------------->>>
if the article is correct the CBE will be making many more 'purchases' from Centamin in the coming months and years - I put 'purchases' in quotation marks because Centamin has yet to be paid for much of the CBE's past 'purchases'
according to the annual report https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
Centamin is compelled to 'sell' up to $960,000,000 egyptian pounds worth of gold to the CBE per annum ( $80,000,000 per month ) - and that the CBE has an outstanding balance owing to Centamin for 2021 and 2022 and 2023
I can't get confirmation of the amounts the CBE has left unpaid for its 2023 gold purchases because Centamin is refusing to answer questions regarding this arrangement , but page 198 of the annual report lists some historic amounts accrued thus far as : at December 31, 2022 the amount receivable from CBE is approximately $ 23,681,000 US dollars ( and 2021 net payable $ 24,761,000 US dollars )
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
Siko, if you can provide some clarity on this issue it would be appreciated -
my thinking is that the CBE sees the gold coming from Sukari as belonging to the Egyptian people anyways - which may be what many Egyptians also agree with - so why pay for it ?
What planet are you on , the waste clearance is not finished yet, and as for rattle snake in a lucky dip ,sounds like you tried it.
Go straight to the hospital for anti toxin injection.
cowichan,
the share is "******ed" because the aisc are way to high , the 'bonanza " grades seem to be missing and the market trusts centanin like a rattle snake at a lucky dip!
No big surprise ,institutions always moving a few shares around.
You just seek attention just as Tony said.
And it doesn't take a magician
the facts are posted online for anyone to confirm -
Centamin's website still lists its MAJOR holder data as thus :
#1 VanEck Inc 111,244,970 shares 9.62%
#2 BlackRock 75,482,689 shares 6.53%
#3 abrdn plc 59,896,169 shares 5.18%
#4 Dimensional Fund Advisors 57,019,844 shares 4.93%
#5 The Vanguard Group, Inc 52,983,780 shares 4.58%
#6 Schroders 45,208,584 shares 3.91%
#7 Ninety One 43,647,274 shares 3.77%
#8 Aberforth Partners 41,332,214 shares 3.57%
#9 Wellington Mgt 39,703,129 shares 3.43%
#10 Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 39,227,049 shares 3.39%
https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/shareholder-information/
while updated Marketscreener lists Centamin's MAJOR shareholder data as thus :
#1 Van Eck 110,273,580 shares 9.519%
#2 Dimensional Fund Advisors 47,425,970 shares 4.094%
#3 The Vanguard Group 41,000,780 shares 3.539%
#4 Hargreaves Lansdown 3.386%
#5 Aberforth Partners 38,141,675 shares 3.293%
#6 Norges Bank 2.811%
#7 Schroder Investment Management 31,157,324 shares 2.690%
#8 Ninety One UK Ltd. 27,128,540 shares 2.342%
#9 BlackRock 18,356,831 shares 1.585%
#10 Abrdn 18,275,264 shares 1.578%
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
this means:
Blackrock SOLD 57 million shares
Abrdn SOLD 41 million shares
Vanguard SOLD 12 million shares
Dimensional SOLD 10 million shares
Schroders SOLD 14 million shares
Ninety One SOLD 16 million shares
Wellington SOLD a minimum of 21 million cuz they're no longer in the top ten
etc.
None of us know what decisions institutional investors are making. What we do know is that the sell volume in August is whopping 1.5% of the entire share base. Daily volume average is around 2 M shares and quite a few have been buys. When the tape runs down the price on no volume suggests CFDs may be used a hedge fund or banks who trade stocks making a big deal of an $80 pull back on gold which is only $30 less than the $1936 average sell price in H1 as in the interim RNS.
Cowichan is exploiting poor sentiment which is rock bottom and enjoying stirring up the pot for some attention. The only reason is Cowichan wants huge amounts of really cheap Centamin shares.
I see Siko's rebuttal to my posts about Egypt have garnered many 'likes'
I am glad Siko is still posting and setting the record straight about the facts on the ground
However, the bitter pill many private Centamin shareholders are refusing to swallow is that strong hands (institutional investors) have already made their decision to sell. Like I posted before the major shareholder info on Centamin's website is not up to date. Institutions that had held for over a decade have SOLD over 200 million shares. Now many of these shares are in weak hands. What does that mean? It means many new holders won't hesitate to sell when spooked. They are not in for the long term.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
Centamin's management (chiefly Mr Horgan) has faced a confidence crisis and lost the trust of many mining analysts/portfolio managers - one remaining of which is reassessing her position. Actually THE largest position (currently Centamin's largest shareholder) You can contact her yourselves:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/imaru-casanova-75b58b64/
I will not be surprised if in the coming days and weeks she decides (if she hasn't already) to significantly reduce her Centamin holdings (nearly 10% of Centamin's float). When this happens it will be just more bad news for Mr Horgan and the share price stability going forward.
Can things turn around? Yes! The Market does not have access to the information Mr Horgan has access to. Step out drilling, geophysical surveys, satellite deposit resource figures and grades, the legitimacy (or not) of the bonanza zone, negotiations with EMRA, negotiations with interested 3rd parties - all is not lost. Yet, Mr Horgan hasn't made the choices that pleased the institutional investors - and many of the unanswered questions I've raised over the last few years are still unanswered (or the answer is not favorable)
Imaru talks about her promotion to manager of the VanEck gold ETF group of funds here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ-8sNJeYlo
It was getting so oversold and we got a similar reaction as yesterday perhaps with a down day, but not at the intra day lows.
Don't say that Mr T. After all this time, Siko's posts, your posts , the view of "the man on the train", Andrew Maguire and basel 3 + the Russians and the Chinese buying gold, surely we are about to turn the corner?
I'm hoping that the deeper we get into the waste clearing contract, things will start to look a bit more rosy.
Come on Mr T!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-q9xeOgG4
It's painful because thee company misled the market and shareholders o many times in the past, so assuming they are being truthful now it will take more than slick presentations too win back the markets trust and shareholders confidence.
Why not try getting some answers from Investor relations , you will likely be disappointed and I you will only gets a stock answers from FTI because it is rumoured that the board id very touchy about certain subjects!
So it likely best not to build up the faintest of hopes and to accept for the foreseeable future this share is well and truly hobbled and going nowhere!
Steve
The average Centamin share price was 106p on a gold sold price of $1794 per ounce if memory serves me correct. The average gold price sold in H1 was around $1934 per ounce.
The breakout price for spot on the gold channel is now $1908.
Finally Centamin costs are flat in comparison to last year. They have eliminated 16% or so of diesel usage for starters.
I should be clear, I too am a bit surprised it's this low. Again, it's pointless comparing with a point in time say last October cos we all know from experience this stock never works like this.
Gold has barely risen since Jan this year and CEY costs have as inflation rages. As I said- what proportion of costs will decrease rather than just inflate less moving forward (excl the waste striping pairing back a bit once backlog cleared)?
On Razors point Centamin trades at the same book value as October 2022.
Should mention that -20% figure is from 1 January this year.
Underperformance against US GDX ETF is -20% for Centamin which is growing production around 5%, replacing most of mined out reserves and is on course to maintain the AISC thanks to solar farm plant arriving with other efforts at $100M cost savings. Somehow they are 20% worse than everyone else weighted into that ETF. Centamin has been over done and has priced in gold at $1815 an ounce.