Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Hi Vicmy,
Don't disagree that long term this is likely move up. My nervousness thought is that if we are not returning to 500k production until 2023 then the POG could be a lot lower by then and we would have failed to capitalise on the excellent gold price. Granted, as I mentioned in my other post, POG could also be a lot higher and we benefit from selling more gold then.
Best wishes,
Prof

the price of gold is cyclical just like the stock market. What goes up must come down and what goes down eventually goes back up.

If we feared the down cycle all the time then none of us would be investing at all.

Some even treat the downward cycle as an opportunity! Not a bad way to look at it either way.

You can also pull out whenever you want to, so you are not locked in for 10 years, unless you choose to. Everyone has their own strategy.

GLA!

Hi Razor,
Thanks very much for pointing me to DJRyan's post. I have just read it and it was an excellent summary of the call. Pleased to see he took so much positivity from the call.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi DJ,
Had just listened to the call this afternoon and posted a few thoughts. Razors then kindly pointed me towards your excellent post.
I agree Martin Horgan came across superbly and seems to have put some great actions in play. I wonder when he will but a large slug of shares? Also wonder how come the Chairman bought 100,000 in the 150s, surely he must have known this news was coming out shortly and would bomb the price, even if just temporarily.
Best wishes,
Prof

Had a listen and overall it still sounds like a very positive outlook for the future of CEY.

Dividends are still in place as they still hold a lot of cash that they don't anticipate the temporary slight drop in production to affect them too much overall. Still a buy and hold imo. The gold is still in the ground ready to dig out.

Good luck all!

JAdam,
Thanks very much for sharing this technical view. That is comforting. I also noted the wisdom of your words in another post where you said, to paraphrase, but all these can of course change depending on fundamentals. I guess that is what I am trying to work out in light of the Investor Call I mentioned earlier that I had listened to. Plus of course we have the question of the gold price and where that goes.
Was tempted to buy some more today but eventually, partly because was trending down and partly because the weekend break is coming up, decided to hold off till next week. Hopefully I will not regret it.

Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Razor, I will take a look.
Prof

for us mid-long term holders imo this is only going up.
been a great end to the week clearly still a lot of investors with a lot of interest in cey. buy and hold!
GLA!

UT at 133.75, confirms a close above the 3 lower support levels and a doji at that. For those that don't know a doji is a very classic reversal candle, thus expecting a full uptrend next week. Good weekend all. An all round good day.

ElProfessor djryan777 has some interesting comments re the conference call in his post history worth a look.

Thanks for your post.

Having just listened to yesterday's post results call I felt simultaneously comforted and alarmed.
On the plus side Martin Horgan came across superbly. He is charismatic, knowledgable, challenging what he has been given and asking questions of everything and seems fully in control. He is also clearly focused on cost reduction at Sukari and opening new ventures elsewhere.
The alarming bit is that is seems that Centamin has been failing to strip back adequately in the open pit for years and there is therefore enormous catch up to be done. He talked about a 3 year plan to get back to 500k oz per year which is way worse than I anticipated even after this week's awful forecast for next year. Granted that is stepped so with 400-430k next year we might then see say 450-475 before c 500 in what would be 2023 (assuming that he meant year 3 was back to normal rather than year three was last year to get us back to normal because that would mean 500 oz in 2024). My worry is that gold could be way lower by then (admittedly it could also be way higher).
Has anyone else listened to the call and if so what did you make of it? The link is below if you haven't or you can access it via the investors section on the Centamin website.
https://www.centamin.com/media/2346/centamin-q3-2020-quarterly-report-webcast-21oct2020.mp3
I would be particularly interested in the technical opinions of those of you with extensive mining experience like DASUT.
Best wishes to all,
Prof

I think the price is holding up pretty well today, given that its a Friday and probable short term traders taking profits rather than be long over the weekend...

Be nice if it closed around 135p...

Supercharger. The stock market is way over reactive on any news. The reason the price hasn’t popped up to at least £1.45 today or even yesterday is the market can’t be that predictable, making money in it would be child’s play.
So there has to be a difference between what the company reality is and the markets reaction.
Look at Boohoo the market reaction to what can only be described as a media attack and the market kicked the share price about like a rag doll.
I imagine a rising chart that is slow at the start and then rises quickly.
That’s what I believe is happening here, the share price will rise 3 or 4 % 4 or 5 days in a row when the time is right and it will have nothing to do with company news.
Bol

Read a few posts on Hoc , its a clue.

Why do I get the feeling some posters are willing the SP down ?

Gep are CEY suffering as a result? How much cash do they have in the bank? Do you feel costs are tax deductible and shared with the relevant Egyptian authorities in any case? You might want to read some posts from those with their feet in the pit? Did you listen to the recent corporate video release on maintenance to sustain in the future over 500,000oz per year and up from current levels. Also it is felt the earth movement was partly caused by excess water where pumps are to be deployed to sort. In June the price of gold was approx. 1600oz and today it is ring an currently over 1900. I feel the price fall of some 40% in recent weeks has been an over sell the higher grade Gold is still in the ground don't worry it has been there for sometime and will be mined once the safety aspect has been considered. The rest of the mine continues as normal.

Are you serious…That is not the reason why costs of gold production in CEY goes up. Reason is that they have to dig gold from underground location where is percentage of gold much lower, less than 1g/T, than it is in the open pit. Are you reading reports from CEY?

If you say so Auson .
I must say having looked at your historical posts ,I am in awe of your knowledge of short selling, and movement around the market, Amazing.

Brokers don't give estimates for the benefit of Private investors, brokers ramp and deramp just the same as PI's, indeed I might argue they do it more. What's more important is how many are right, facts remain that the greater percentage are wrong, now that's wrong to the market, but in terms of the effect the broker wanted to get, rather than portray that's a different matter, generally if a broker is saying to the public sell, them I'm most likely a buyer. A broker that wants to exit a position may well put out a buy rec, convesly one wishing to buy can place a sell rec. Generally just don't trust them, do your own research them and only promote them when they underpin the way YOU want the market to go..lol

https://www.stockopedia.com/blog/can-you-beat-the-market-using-broker-buy-recommendations-146421/

Well what a coincidence, Gep75 you appeared on the 3/10/2020 the day Thunder2040and Soulsister accused Sotolo of ramping / de-ramping CEY on the HOCH BULLETIN BOARD.
You appear knowledgeable for a newbie.

Dot -just be aware there is always a reason for a broker downgrading (it is not to punish their own clients) if is sometimes to buy some more at a lower price. You will see negativity also on these web pages for smaller investors. Costs are related to local currency movement as much as anything else. Any increase can be easily absorbed with lower local currency to sterling on costs as opposed to high dollar which helps on sales. Most analysts expect actually Gold prices to rise quite substantially going into the uncertainty of the USA Elections. So fingers crossed here even for the shorter term from a very good entry point in my opinion. Everyone is entitled to their own.GLA.

Gep75,

Not surprised costs is going up because wages for miners is going up, the standard of living in Egypt is going up and Egypt is going to be one of the richest african countries.

Thanks for your input Super! Good luck on your investments!

EspecialC - El P is right always go for the safer spread option. I invest in here for some variety and safety, I also cover the other miners too but allow some money to move around according to the economic climate on the day. All shares are cyclical but what with all the USA election discussions touching base I see an opportunity for Gold/Silver to rise. Likewise I move some money around I also cover CPI, and the Banks have done well today (another group of cyclicals) but have invested in the last week into Dominoes (School holidays next week) and lock down home order advantages to them, as well as M&S for food (Ocado deliveries) and Kingfisher on the home working time for DIY? Good luck.

Thanks Prof. I have a pretty decent idea but just can't read charts in depth like some more experienced people. Most of my money is in Centamin (a few grand at 36p I have some in Capita at 24p and some in Hammerson at 18p. I think these are all pretty high risk possibly high reward (or otherwise) shares. I'll probably keep to about 3500, wading in slowly at first. Thanks for your advice, I'll keep that info in mind!