Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Just listened to the conference call and it seems that past management were not stripping properly and trying to get at areas to fast etc leading to build ups and instability. The shelved 50 oz's of unstable ore can be accessed in Q2 but would lead to machines not been used efficiently. so Q3,Q4 the high grade will be mined, so you see its not vanished !!

Take outs are as follows
December the 2nd sounds interesting as they are talking about cost savings to bring the all in sustaining costs down with initiatives that are in progress or long such planned like solar etc, cumulatively they together are expected to save a lot off the cost per oz.

Egyption mining leases and satellite deposits near the mine have been applied for and we can expect news around that , centamin are well placed to be preferred status due to their existing relationship. also extra exploration is planned and depth and the outer extremities looked at.

Africa they are going to have news in December and they are looking closely at it.

basically in summary this is a steady operation that's highly leveraged to the gold price as unhedged. 350 million on the balance sheet.

what they are doing is catching up with stripping for the next 18-24 months and maintaining a steady realistic guidance with an eye on reduced costs an upside in exploration and Africa. plus new Egypt licences.

the production profile is lower but moving again towards 500,000 oz plus in the years ahead.

seems to me obvious they got the bad news out and all did director purchases after that not expecting the market to further take this down on information already known.

maybe the market as a forward looking animal discounted the future today , but in my eyes its an opportunity as this has fallen from 237.

in conclusion we know where we are at but have sufficient upside potential with a number of possible SP drivers mentioned and more will be known 2nd December in more detail surrounding cost savings and exploration and resources.

As I said centamin in my view is an excellent leveraged play on gold , the dividend is a given due to the balance on account as it can be maintained.

The SP should recover in the short term leveraged to gold , todays drop was over done as all this information was in the public domain yesterday. only difference been the production profile has been brought down to a realistic level , im glad they have been honest and also backed it up with director purchases.

I expect broker targets to reiterate centamin is a buy all be it slightly revised downwards.

I thought there must have been a good reason,lol.

Mrtibbles is busy handling the Brixit negotiations. Too busy to be dealing with the latest developments at Centamin!

Hi MrTibbs, not heard your take on proceedings today, are you numb like most of the LTH.

Couldn't resist, drop overdone. Asleep

Whitegate
Just ignore the Uncrossed trade,basically it's a price that is given to all the leftover buys and sells after the trading day,it just balances the books at a price suitable for all concerned

What is uncrossing trade??? Why have gold sales dropped?? Newby.

Thanks for your input DJ, think I'll plunge in tomorrow. I'll try my luck at 127 at a few thousand quid and, as you suggest, leave it until Christmas. Cheers :)

DJRYAN777 I’m evolving, I won’t walk blind into this “prewarned” setup without being aware.

I read all your posts thank you.

Razor we have both watched that same reaction 4 or 5 times like history repeating and always wondered why we make the same error !! The belief that one day it will catch us out.

I panicked myself in the morning as new it was in for the usual. , but feels orchestrated somehow by the board , maybe a strategy of let’s lower expectations.

It bloody worked ! But overall I’m happy as I’ve got the same company and Info as yesterday at a cheaper price !!

Anyone new to the share has to be happy with an entry at these levels for the quality of assets. I mean come on ....this is valued at 1.5 billion in a bull market ?!

Serious value disconnect.

Hold and sit on hands for a Rise back up , all will be forgiven in the coming days , weeks and months.

Depends on what gold does , the reason it got pushed down from 135 was because sterling strengthened.

With centamin I’d say if it starts up it will move 5-10% if gold and the pound and dollar help out.

But if golds down it may tread water , lots of interest at this level as it’s a quality stock.

People are forgetting their are upside drivers they are just stale bulls like me!!

But at this price in a gold bull market where it’s prob only just getting going I’ll not risk trying to get lower , not at this gold price and situation with the world.

I’ve been waiting for my moment to add here for ages after missing the last move up as got bored after years.

Guidance over 400,000 Oz’s and 120 million profit to centamin is quite ok with me

300 million odd in the bank paying a Handsome divi.

My advice , put your money in tomorrow at whatever you can get as 2% either way will seem like nothing if you just ignore it.

Check in Christmas time and you’ll be sat on a handsome profit

Look at all the uncertainty around , centamin is safe this level and gold stocks are in demand , especially ones with the cash generation of centamin , and the DIVI

Upside —

****New licences
****updated mine plan
****african assets
**** exploration

Downsides
**** fall in gold

The bad news was baked yesterday , just a few over reacting as disappointed that guidance is down for next year.

But come on , it’s obvious they are making things easy as they can upgrade and they can mine that 90 million Oz at a higher gold price Q4 next year. Might be a blessing to tackle the low grade now , it’s easy money and a cash machine !!

Why are people so negative this is mining ! Things always move about and we will hit the higher grades when we hit them , they haven’t disappeared so logic says the value has not gone it’s just deferred.

Djryan777 excellent post, thank you.

* I should get out didn’t cross my mind YESTERDAY

It’s all the way of the world Rebess, what annoyed me today was a serious notion that maybe I should get out didn’t cross my mind.
If I had this evening I could have just bought back in and be sitting happily awaiting the price recovery.
Still I didn’t sell so I missed an opportunity not cash.

Newish to trading and want to get in as low as possible. Considering a limit of 127. Any thoughts from more experienced traders?

Completely agree , the mine plan has always had these transitional low grade zones that need to be worked through. The 90 million Oz higher grade zones isn’t going anywhere.

I knew On reading the RNS the traders and poorly researched would sell as their was no balancing RNS snippet. My belief is on purpose to flush the SP out for stickier money and possibly institutional money.

Today’s RNS was known yesterday the only difference been that next years guidance disappointed many. But surely people no that lower grade material push’s costs etc. It has to be processed so it’s a necessary evil. Personally I think they thought it a good time to tackle it with the belief that the gold price is going higher etc next year.

The gold price does seem to be lagging 2008 in that its not really done the higher high. Stimulus and money printing only sends commodities higher and it’s not often you see warren buffet back track into it as a hedge. In fact he once said it was a pointless investment so him buying into gold miners is a big sign. I also agree the upside on licences and Africa are forgotten.

Let’s not forget this pays a handsome divi that isn’t under threat for the foreseeable future. It’s highly cash generative with zero debt.

After the dust has settled this will rise up. Let’s not forget gold is in a bull run with a pandemic ongoing , it’s got safe haven appeal. Most people can see this drop as an opportunity.

After my sale first thing I bought back 1.29

I only had a small holding but at 20% down on top of the drop already , so 40% down I can feel secure in knowing I have the discount to buy more with safety.

I only expected a 5% drop and I got 20% so I’ve now doubled my holding and will buy some more first thing.

So tomorrow I’ll be holding 40 grands worth which I see as a bargain.

Centamin is as solid at this price and a very attractive divi.

It’s recently been up at 237 I believe , the drop to 164 area was exactly for what we know today.

Centamin has form for a further drop on results that are known as it’s the shock factor and the MM’s play it brilliantly. Past form has always seen this rise back up.

See what happens tomorrow but if it does not open up 5% I’d be surprised, of course if not tomorrow then soon.

Even for traders theirs an easy 10-15% from here into the tailwinds of covid and stock market volatility and the elections and stimulus.

In the past it might of fallen back more and I’d of waited , but given the current climate all gold shares are highly in demand.

Next years guidance is exactly that , cautionary , but it does not mean to say it will be that , they can surprise to them upside , the pains been done now.

I point to the directors buying at 150 area

They are either stupid or know stuff we don’t. I’ll go with the latter and they may top up.
Quietly confident and happy to receive this gift of an entry , like a 20% off sale ! Not often you can bag a 40% discount

Hi Razor
I must say events don't sit well with me. - It's all too pat, everything just slots-in, - Even the fact that they had to introduce next-years down-graded forecast at this stage. A revelation that played no small-part in today's fall. - It also means we'll take another massive hit when it is releaed officially in the new-year.- Same old-same old I'm afraid. - Orchestrated might be an apt description. - Time will tell. - I also notice how they've penned-in that improved production will appear in the second-half, H2, again next year when once again Q3 will become the truth Quarter. - The time they have to show their hand once again. - That moment in the last three years when the truth was revealed.

Adamsmithfreethi I hope you were able to margin down if you need to.

I think with the US election just days away Cey current drop will be short term.

Well Razor think back to who was or still is Mining manager, and been there since 2011.
Or is it coincidence ?

Indeed - Hanlon's Razor every time I'm afraid...

For believing this mess was orchestrated.

This company is laying wide open for an attack.

It’s too simple, surly this disaster could have been minimised.

That 28.57% spread is not real, its when the shares are in auction...calm down dear...

3.52 million is the Uncrossing Trade...pretty solid though at 131.3 close after 127p earlier today...

Traders and short term holders flushed out?

BIGGEST DAILY VOLUME for 20 months...

ThanksJEPh

That's an uncrossing trade. Google it to find out what it is.