The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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He must be a young man, and if so good luck to him.
To spend much of his life p$ssing into the wind is an interesting if not fool hardy strategy.
best to all~the gnome
Astro
The sell volume is way higher than the buy volume so the market maker has pushed the sell price higher and then dumped stock. In theory it should retreat, but we shall see if an institutional buyer is on the other side picking up stock at a higher price. It is always uncomfortable starting the day with a share having a large price gap up. It has remainder higher on the Friday close all of this morning on the buy side.
Centamin could go higher during the week. The Asian market has gapped gold higher for USA market this morning and . I am not sure if USA will sell miners and gold early on this afternoon.
Steve
It would be naive of anyone, trader, shareholder even potential investor to think that any posts on this forum or indeed any internet forum could influence the share price of any stock, so one can only assume there must be some other reasons why any of those groups should bother to visit or contribute to any such forum.
Around a decade or so ago when Centamin was indeed going through some very turbulent times this forum was a source of information from Egypt, most of which wasn't in any of the main stream and market until the following week or later media and the forum was also a source of actual mining related and legal information from professionals who were invested which provided great help and support to members of this forum.
As you point out this forum has no effect on the share price so why should anyone visit it,possibly they just enjoy the contact, or regard it as a place to chat or vent off frustration, nothing wrong with that if it makes them feel better.
Personally I'm glad that people like Cowichan take the trouble to post information and articles such as the one on the Capital waste contract which is after all a major component of CAPEX and a major drain on profits.
Whilst I'm not denying the some of the other market influences on the share price I feel quite confident that when the Capital waste contract comes to an end it will be a great boost to market and investor sentiment generally and the share price will respond accordingly.
By the way you may find the T2W forum of interest it is more about trading than this one.
Tibbs
So not going up then......
Market maker made a pigs ear this morning with wide spreads on Centamin. Precious little volume.
Ideally needed to be below and break the upper resistance line. Otherwise it looks like a bull trap. It may then fail with a lack of volume follow through. We shall see.
Looks like I hit a nerve with Cowchain, and it was supposed to.
Nothing he posts impact the SP, many of us are traders and not holders, he is neither, and he cannot abide any form of comment or anyone who would dare critic his posts.
His scattergun approach is yet to provide anything to impact the SP.
Economic indicators and company RNS info, of course do, and have consistently provided the necessary SP movements and not his scattergun specutlation.
Major stock indexes in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Monday in anticipation of the latest Eurozone and United Kingdom inflation data that will be published this week.
The DAX lost 0.14% at 8:00 am CET. The CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 fell by 0.19% and 0.07% at the same time. The Euro Stoxx 50 decreased 0.26% concurrently.
The euro was up by 0.08% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06692. The pound was 0.11% higher against the greenback and went for 1.23964 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DD
Happy Monday y’al
Gold positive at $1929.42
10:07-17 September 2023
An Egyptian lawmaker has revealed that the first review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of Egypt’s economic reform program, initially scheduled for September, has been postponed for the second time.
It is now anticipated to take place in the first quarter of 2024.
“The initial review by IMF experts this month will not proceed due to the government’s delay in fulfilling some of the commitments it made with the IMF under the recent agreement,” said Yasser Omar, the Deputy Chairman of the parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee.
https://english.aawsat.com/business/4551346-imf-economic-review-egypt-delayed-q1-2024
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Also, Egypt's Supreme Administrative Court had set September 2 , 2023 to consider Centamin's appeal:
"As per the provisions of Egyptian Civil Procedures Law, Centamin's subsidiary, PGM, has submitted an application to the SAC to resume the Appeal proceedings and request the SAC to reject the original case in its entirety in accordance with the provisions of Law 32"
but that came and went, too
2023/09/14
The Egyptian government has reached an agreement with Gulf sovereign funds that invested in Egyptian companies to postpone the distribution of dividends for three years, according to sources familiar with the matter. The sources told Daily News Egypt that the Central Bank of Egypt will guarantee the necessary dollar liquidity to transfer the investors’ profits into foreign currency after the end of the period.
The agreement is part of the investment guarantee agreement signed by the government with Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding and the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which are among the most prominent investors in Egyptian companies. The government also pledged to protect the value of their investments and provide a guaranteed return of 8% annually for four years, after deducting taxes and exit fees.
The agreement covers the recent investments made by Abu Dhabi Holding in three government companies: National Drilling Company, Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene, and the Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Company, worth $800m. It also covers the investments made by the Saudi Egyptian Investment Company, affiliated with the Saudi Public Investment Fund, in four major Egyptian companies: e-finance, Abu Qir Fertilizers, Misr Fertilizers Production Company, and Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling, worth $1.3bn. These investments were announced in August 2023.
In addition, the agreement includes the investments made by Abu Dhabi Holding in five companies listed on the Egyptian Exchange, worth $1.85bn. These investments were announced in April 2023.
-------------------------------->>>
Somewhere in his palace in New Cairo Sisi is smiling wryly while listening to the Eagles...
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax," said the night man
"We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave
Thank you Cowichan very interesting!
Excuse me Cowichan.
Your final sentnce, are you referring to yourself and our endearing MR T ?
22 August 2023
Project completions –Séguéla (Côte d’Ivoire), Motheo (Botswana), Bomboré (Burkina Faso), Talison MSA (Western Australia), Cobré Ball Mill 6 (Panama), Navachab (Namibia), Sukari Paste Plant (Egypt)
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/lyl/lycopodium-limited/news/investment-presentation-fy2023-2912659.html
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Also, it's revealing how those who offer/post zero genuine input about Centamin's business spout criticism about others 'not knowing' about Centamin
Such mucks are not investors, they are lug nuts with too big a diameter hole
And no one on this forum knows…
Only those on the inside know what’s going on-
I didn't say the management team were incompetent, I said from the disclosures they may have been overly complacent or sloppy in their oversight of the contractor.
Long term holders are all too aware of the mistakes of the past and the need to be vigilant in holding the company to account and there is nothing to lose and possibly much to gain in many respects by shareholders asking the management for some explanation.
In the case of the Sukari waste clearance start time was a critical factor so it made sense to use a known contactor who already had the expertise and importantly a large proportion of the specialist plant easily available.
However see below the advice from a highly experienced mining analyst and consultant on the subject-
In general using contractors for mining is almost always a bad idea!
Only when there is a short term mining project such as the pushback at the open pit there, you could argue to use contractors. It is not worthwhile and efficient to equip and staff up for such a project.
When you have a longer term mining project you should use an owner miner approach for the following reasons:
Mining is the core activity of any mining business.
If you outsource this activity you never build up an in-house expertise.
It would be similar for an information business to outsource design of information system and programming activities.
Also It is more expensive as the contractor will build-in a profit margin.
Should they miscalculate and go under, you will have to take over at short notice, which results in a shamble, loss of revenue, appointing another contractor which knows it has you by the balls, or you have to equip and staff up quickly, which in practice is impossible!
There is a loss of control in directing mining activities having to work through another party.
… ill informed.. I mean
No one on TV is forum has all the inside info to make the judgement, no matter what they think.
Of course, it’s good to debate though- no matter how I’ll informed due to guesswork
If you think the management team are incompetent- what makes you think doing in house wouldn’t have been a disaster? Surely if the amount of work needing doing was exceptional, why would anyone do this in house and be limbered with all the on going costs of decommissioning much of the equipment post this? Also, if rented, what if took longer? Could have cost way more not to mention the disaster if they mucked it up…
Fair comments Cowichan,
This seems to confirm yet again that using contractors rather than keeping operations (In House) more often than not more costly .
The new management acknowledged three years ago that a contributing factor of the present Centamin woes were due to failing to have sufficient oversight of the contractors in the underground operations which were considerably more costly than if kept inhouse.
So to a shareholder it surprising and of some concern if as first impression suggest from these disclosures that the new Centamin BOD and on-site management may have been over complacent even "Sloppy" in their oversight and auditing of the Sukari waste clearance contactor.
From the information available if true it seems that the alleged contract and operational and auditing inefficiencies have been to the financial detriment of the Centamin shareholders whilst offering some very considerable financial benefit to Capital share holders .
Many civil engineering contracts include penalty clauses which require the contactor to payback or compensate the client for failure to abide by certain contractual obligations and so I wonder if such a clause is in place and Centamin will be able to invoke such a clause?
if not then how are shareholders to be compensated for this alleged overcharging by Capital?
Government Reform / State Exit
The Egyptian government – in particular its military – is heavily involved in different sectors of the economy. Does the IMF agreement require any reforms relating to that?
Yes, an important IMF requirement is for the Egyptian state to reduce its footprint in the economy by isolating the most strategic sectors and selling down its assets in the rest of the economy.
According to the IMF, public sector companies, excluding the military-owned ones, amounted to around 16% of the economy in 2018. This figure is likely higher now.
There is less information about the exact size of the military involvement in the economy, but another 10-15% of the economy seems like a fair estimate. Anecdotally, military-owned enterprises are involved in almost everything under the sun: bottled water manufacturing, retail fuel stations, cement production and holiday resort properties.
While there are many other economies where the state accounts for a large share, I think the military's dominance in the private sector is quite unique to Egypt. Not surprisingly, these enterprises are not very efficient and rely heavily on subsidies, tax breaks, procurement advantages and, in the case of the military, free labour by conscripts.
There is also a lack of transparency and accountability of public enterprises. Egypt's government statistics, in general, is actually of quite poor quality - much of it incomplete and significantly lagging. But when it comes to public enterprises, there is very little information at all. IMF also understands this problem, and improving transparency and accountability of public enterprises is, in fact, one other objective of the program.
In the near-term, selling state assets and cutting tax breaks for public enterprises would raise the necessary revenue to service government debts. In the medium-term, retrenchment of the state from the private sector and a level playing field for private enterprises will lead to greater efficiency, higher productivity and higher long-run growth. Egypt has very high potential growth due to a lower starting base and great demographics, i.e. very young population and strong population growth. But to realize this potential, the country needs to be able to create jobs that will absorb the new labour force entrants. A dynamic private sector is a key element of this.
https://tinyurl.com/2n6ypn3p
September 15, 2023
An overvalued Egyptian pound increases the risk of default - Capital Economics
Authorities mut act soon on the exchange rate to ease the economic crisis the London-based think tank said in a report
rumours that Egyptian authorities would not embark on any devaluation of the pound until the presidential elections are concluded. The actual date of the poll has not been announced yet; however, media reports suggest that it might take place in December.
The London-based think tank contends that Egyptian government is “playing a dangerous game” by delaying another devaluation of the local currency. As the pound is losing more of its value on the back market, policy makers should act soon in order to secure the second tranche of the IMF loan and encourage the Gulf to pump investments in Egypt
Yet the currency is believed to be significantly overvalued. Officially, it trades at 30.9/$; however, it reached 40/$ on the black market.
Earlier this year, the Egyptian government unveiled a plan to privatize dozens of state-owned enterprises, inviting foreign, mainly Gulf-based, investors to join in. The dualism in the exchange rate has been seen as the main reason why the program has failed to attract significant investments from Arab Gulf countries.
https://www.zawya.com/markets/currencies/an-overvalued-egyptian-pound-increases-the-risk-of-default-capital-economics-vwmrlyd5
Https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/soft-landing-narrative-myth
This sums up what is going down and the evidence is not just in this one article. USA is heading into deep trouble.
My highly biased opinion to the thread:
"This looks good to me - they are right on top of operational detail..."
Sure, except we are 3 years into a 4 year contract. Perhaps looking to discover inefficiencies/errors in reporting could have been done sooner? At least that is how a Centamin shareholder might look at the situation. But , yes - as a Capital shareholder, anything that might extend the contract beyond 4 years would be welcome. And let's not forget inflated figures would cost Centamin and benefit Capital with bonuses.
"Luckily Centamin aren't letting them get away with it"
Again, is this a case of closing the barn door after the horses get out? Also, it's more likely Capital initiated this trial - as it only involves Capital equipment, contract drivers, managers and so forth - so if they aren't delivering, in the end one would think it could reflect badly on Capital.
Then again it's possible EMRA is becoming more interested in how monies are spent - they have equal right to question and demand proof of such an expensive project's a) necessity b) delivery c) reimbursement (or denial)