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Gold moves inversely to real interest rates. So inflation raises gold unless interest rise faster which is just what has been happening. Bonds (measured by 10 year TIPS) are now yielding over a real 2%, the highest since the 2009 burst and historically very high. Inflation adjusted gold is near the low of 1970, back where it was at the start of the century and half what it was in 2012. Look at the real prices not nominal
Blackrock have reduced their holdings from 5.04 to 4.97 %.
More interesting is today Tuesday September 19tj is one calendar month away from the Q3 earnings report release date of Thursday October 19th.
European stock indexes were in a downward trend during premarket trading on Tuesday, as investors awaited the release of the latest Eurozone inflation data later in the session.
The German DAX lost 0.15% at 8:00 am CET and the UK's FTSE 100 fell by 0.15% at the same time. France's CAC 40 traded flat while the Euro Stoxx 50 decreased by 0.08%.
The euro traded 0.08% below the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06785. The pound was 0.18% down compared to the US currency, changing hands for 1.23964 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Contiuation.
It is unlikely the US has the Gold Reserve it says. Take for example of Germany a few years ago. 8 years to deliver.
If foreign governments want their Gold Bullion back , tough . They will be offered promisiury notes. Like their Government Bonds.
Its been loaned or sold years ago.
But of course my humble opinion.
Astro my explanation as someone who lives in the UK.
In September 2011 the peak gold price was £1,178. Today the same bar of gold is valued at £1,561 and inflation has ran 60% in the UK. Therefore the equivalent peak price is £1885 per ounce of gold and that is an expensive peak price to pay.
The bottom of the market was £708 per ounce in December 2015. Today that bottom is £1,018 which is a rock bottom low.
Inflation calculations are biased low and hence we equate it better to say a property price we live in or some other major asset. I would estimate that real data is 10% higher on both the low and the high. This gives £1120 per ounce low and the high is £2073 which is approaching the normal 100% variation between a bull high and bear low. We are currently £440 above the bottom and £512 below a bull market top. Gold in my opinion is slightly below mean value. £1593 gold ounces or $1975 gold per ounce is exactly on the average mean on what we see here in the UK.
It is pointless using 1980 metrics as the gold price exploded way above any sensible metric value and it took 20 years to get to a bear market bottom. It is therefore best to look at where gold was at 2011 and 2015 to follow where we are now. What determines the future is whether we are in a bull market or bear market. Inflation tells us we are behind by around 3-4% or so. The motivation to buy something other than gold is based on what is safe to buy. If we believe the UK sovereign debt is a potential future problem then gold is in a bull market. If we believe the debt is entirely manageable without printing more money than we can buy bonds and be happy with 5% and gold is less attractive and bearish. If we believe the equity market is undervalued on PE multiple then gold is more likely in a bear market and if we fear a lot of companies are making far less profit than it is more likely a gold bull market. All the time we recalibrate where gold is in ounces to an important non-gold asset we own and that reminds us whether we are near a gold bottom or a top in valuation in our currency.
Tony
Excuse tyopos ,but you should get the message.
Sticky keyboard, sorry.
It is the fact that the FED need to keep the $ high for confidence in it, no matter how. for the all important Worlds Trading Currency.Its not there yet cause the Eastern Nations trust Gold.It will take a few more years.
Statistics massaged .Then sell massive amounts of paper deivitetives every time it goes out of their cofidence zone.
Gold is inverselvely strong to dollar .
When first invested into gold I read that historical high inflation is good for gold. But this time inflation was so high gold never rally. It actually cause the opposite...
I wonder anyone can explain why is this happing? Is it because of the strong dollar? And thankyou tony for update...
Astro,
USA dollar was probably messing up gold for different reasons. China is now allowing imports of gold once again. The premium hit $119 per ounce last week but has now dropped to $80 or so on spot gold price. The reason the ban was imposed was to strengthen the currency. USA bragging on false data on Bloomberg was so over the top as to be obvious and laughable how the presenters could keep a straight face was academy award stuff or someone had a red hot poker nearby. Relaxation by China was an indicator of confidence in their own currency and the economy was responding to a degree to give some confidence.
The FED will do their hawkish pause and last time they did it, gold and gold miners rallied. I suspect a similar event again and we should have some kind of news from Centamin. Hopefully some drill results or something to suggest management and the company still have a pulse. Tony
Us kick gold down the hill again.
We need to support the Chinese and russia to get the gold to move up :)
Yes----hoping for a good one, but the way Horgan plays it, I cannot see it being brilliant. IF everything is going ok, I'd expect the figures to put them in front enough to be able to get an "easy" 4th quarter, but for him to hold something back.
If the waste clearance goes to plan or better then that should finally lift the share price next year (assuming gold is around the current price).
With everything starting to open up a bit, should a few more of those large, light bodied trucks be on order?
There is a big disconnect between gold prices and gold miners, noted panelists on Kitco Roundtable.
On Friday mining audiences manager Michael McCrae, Kitco Correspondent Paul Harris and David Erfle with the juniorminerjunky.com recorded round table at the Precious Metal Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado.
During the first quarter of the year, gold futures traded above $2,000. Since then, the metal has mostly traded within a healthy band of $1,900 to $2,000. Yet, the gold mining index, the GDX, is down 3% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite is up nearly one-third.
Gold mining shares..."look like the gold price, you just have to turn the charts upside down," noted Erfle. "It's an amazing dichotomy."
Erfle said there are just better options for investors with elevated inflation, good rates on T-bills and other parts of the market showing more promise.
Harris noted the toll the gold market is taking on investors and companies.
"It's grinding down the management teams," said Harris "People have commented to me that they love the sector...but the joy has gone out of it, because it's relentless—the endless calls from disgruntled investors about when it's going to turn around."
https://tinyurl.com/pvz66zjk
*report
A drill for the newly acquired acreage.
Closed gap on buy side. Short closed with small loss. We may break through this time.
All depends on where they are still clearing waste from now.
Otherwise, Q3 will simply be an update of the current production, so dont raise your hopes just yet.
Yes Tibbs, they will have been getting around $1920+ for most of the quarter. Horgan likes a strong Q3 to give them an easy run to delivery of guidance in Q4. So I'm hoping for some big numbers and an SP booster.
This will be the "Teller" 3bear, if things have gone as well as we have been led to believe then there should be some respectable improvements in profits and share price, if not and we get excuses then be prepared for the share price to get a real spanking!
90.80 make or break. Waiting for us market to open to see.....
Senior Management representative from Centamin including the head of investor relations are touting for new business in North America this week!
Possibly that market offers more opportunities than the London exchange which is fast losing its influence attraction to companies especially since Brexit!
Not denying the other day to day influences but in compassion they are minor a few pence here and there for anyone who wants to bother, but any as long term holder knows the really major influences on this share price have been the loss of market confidence and the huge increase in CAPX after crack in the wall forced he admission of high grading for far too long by digging themselves into an ever deeper far too small diameter hole with walls of far too steep inclination.
If and when the Capital contract is concluded then with present gold prices the full benefits of open and underground operations will be reflected in the profits which from past experience should have a very positive effect to the good on the share price.
Q3 results presentation is October 19
IS the next earning date coming soon?
Q3 production to exceed 130,000oz for first time since July 2020.
Q3 revenue to exceed USD240,000,000
You heard it here first.
Some other influences? These are the main one as proven all the time.
There are more traders on here than you think Mr T- they just spend their time posting all the time.
Many read it for the views on the key SP movers- eg the economic indicators and RNS comments.