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Yes sotolo regarding oil costs being higher,
The company accounted for it in the AISC target. Hopefully increased production will help a little. The company Capex may have been higher. The analysts have not revised the earnings forecast for this year. A good 3rd quarter may well have cleared 11.5c for 9 months with a low target of 3 cents in Q4. Around $15M or so in other savings was hoped to be delivered in H2 and that may help as a partial off-set in other higher costs. Tony
Major European markets traded mostly higher in premarket sesión of Thursday ahead of key economic data. During the day, investors will receive reports on consumer confidence in the European Union and the German CPI. Finally, the ECB will publish its latest economic bulletin.
The DAX was flat at 8:02 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.26%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.09%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading 0.18% higher.
At 8:04 am CET, the euro and the British pound were flat, selling for $1.05068 and $1.214 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Tony you are half right, however the costs in sterling have risen over the same time, particularly oil
Bitcoin? Few would answer yes.
How about gold? Same.
Ruble? Yuan? Euro? Yen? Good luck.
So what threatens the USD?
One could argue the strength of the USD is derived from the belief the USA is the strongest militarily, economically, etc.
So then the question becomes, has the US dollar become de facto gold?
If yes, then nothing - no downturn, no debt, will replace it.
Excess debt issuances can always be repurchased by the Fed - so perhaps the economic catastrophe that will 'one day' be good for gold - never arrives.
PS Just thinking out loud - I know nobody invested in a gold miner happily considers anything but a bullish gold view as the world crumbles under the wight of debt (alas, I also have several gold juniors in my portfolio) still one must plan for all scenarios
USA hedge funds tried twice to break yen. Looks like USA Treasuries were sold off in support. Somebody wanted this unnecessary event to happen. It will be interesting to see if Japan buys gold heavily overnight and replaces sold USA Treasuries with gold. It will be interesting to see if China also off loads USA Treasuries on the Asian markets. Perhaps USA wanted to blame somebody else for high interest rates, but they have clearly provoked what has unfolded. All in time for a nice USA government shutdown with a scarcity of data.
The hedge completes June 2024 and although waste stripping end this year it would be typical of Centamin to overrun a month or two and earn more money in Q4 by spending less on the waste disposal contract especially if the counter party wanted that arrangement if other contracts were getting put back.
Stocks dropping last few days and gold dropping with it.
Like I keep saying, sticks dropping and the common rationale for it not good for gold and certainly not good for cey- again recent events proving my point … again…
Am guessing the extra waste costs drop off before the hedge hedge does and the hedge removed the risk, which will be much lower once done
Gold price retreat from $1966 to $1897 is say 3.5% drop which is how much pound sterling has dropped against USD during September. The pence earnings per share is remaining the same.
SP continued to drop as gold dropped under the gold hedge- however, of course, the hedge amount will be reflected in to actual figures which is good.
Will be interesting to see what happens for the duration of hedge if gold continues to drop and of course, not so interesting if gold remains below, esp if significantly lower, when the hedge runs out…
Perhaps that $6M that was spent in July comes back into play. If Q4 was 1800 average per ounce then the $6M is repaid and the coverage in H1 is free. Average sale price in Q3 likely to be near $1920 per ounce. Probably any sell for the rest of this month is now hedged at $1900. If they hold $1850 average sales price in Q4 the annual average sell price would only fall to $1910 area. If earnings are 11p a share then 8 times earnings takes us to 88p. Previous PE multiple was 16. 50% reduction in multiples does appear severe.
Most stock market indexes in Europe were set to open flat on Wednesday after their counterparts from the United States suffered sharp losses a day earlier. Investors also analyzed new consumer confidence numbers from Germany.
The DAX, the CAC 40 and the EURO STOXX 50 were all flat at 8:03 am CET. London's FTSE 100 gained 0.33%.
The euro was 0.11% down compared to the dollar at 7:59 am CET, trading at 1.05602 and the British pound was 0.10% lower than the American currency, going for 1.21455 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
Happy Hump y’al
Stating Blackrock have reincreased their stake in Centamin.
Well -----With the end in sight for the waste clearance, lower AISC, Basel 3, Kinesis and Andrew Maguire forever forecasting, surely we should be due a good rise in the not too distant future?
More and regular director buys and a good update might help a bit as well.
Work within the system Tony- I never claim to like the system but I really don’t care as I can’t change it so I learn it, accept it to make money within in it.
I have no other interest in it - and it’s a complete waste of time moaning about it.
Steve
When you say economic data, does that include all the skulduggery from Hedge fund traders, banks and bullion houses now going on with the expiry of today's gold options trading ? Tony
Thank you MrTibbles, I believe the brigade are a trifle war weary.
We’ve all been through it. The market has treated Centamin with no generosity at all.
Everything crossed here that the Brass in Centamin produce some Gold.
Bol.
You , Mr T, act like someone who is new to centamin- those who’ve traded for many years know and have seen the demonstrable evidence that RNS and economic data are the only plays in town ( and before you incorrectly interpret my post, it’s economic data that impact gold)
I’ve watched and traded centamin for 9years now Mr T - stop being so incorrectly patronising
At the moment the only thing ,apart from bad news, that affects the SP is the price of Gold.
You are of course entitled to your opinion, but they are mainly just the market daily ups and downs which traders dance one way or the other to and which Centamin has always had to contend with,.
But had you been invested in Centamin for longer then you may realise that there are other factors which as they became apparent should influence and invigorate the share price to a far greater extent.
Hi Xxxx,
Thanks for your email.
It seems that the journalist applied a Centamin headline to Central Asia Metals content, so I am not surprised you were worried by the apparent move to Kazakhstan. We have got the link etc corrected now.
I really appreciate your bringing it to my attention.
Pete
Irrelevant - economic data and RNS the only things that matter
Hi Razors,
Thank you for posting the info, you have always been one of the most decent and supportive member on this forum, especially during the past few frustrating to say the least years, thank you for that and lets hope that this time the good times will at last be very good times!for everyone , they certainly deserve some reward for being so patient!
Best
Tibbs
Hi Somnamma,
I 'm sure we all appreciate Dansul's taking the trouble to post something to try and offer some hope of to cheer everyone up by giving us some hope.
But that said I as a long term holder I agree entirely with your sentiments regarding the promises of good times coming some time down the road, how many times have the analysts foretold this, but as we have all been made aware by some of are more knowledgable former mining professionals even when the analysts do visit the mining operations they cant really see much and even if they do see more, it might be piles of uncleared waste or that the inclination of the pit walls are too steep they fail to understand the relevance of what they are looking at.
As to Doropo, their predictions are assuming that the grades which I am led to believe aren't anything special don't turn bad , there aren't any unforeseen natural disasters, civil unrest military coup or even some other fundamentalist factions taking control of the area!
The only analyst who has called it right since 2016 is Kees Dekker, but unfortunately I chose to believe Andrew Pardey and the company take on things thinking that they where acting in the best interests of shareholders and not just covering their own ar*es!
This is why market confidence is shot to pieces and no amount of slick presentations will restore it, that will take far more by way of improved and sustained guidance and actual proof that the huge increase in CAPEX to cover the waste clearance has abated to normal levels.
So they may give share holders a bit more divi, so they ought considering how much they have reduced it in past years!
So lets hope that things are going to change for the better and much sooner rather than later!