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Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Thursday in anticipation of the latest update on Germany's trade balance, one of the indicators of the state of the European Union's largest economy.
The DAX went up by 0.33% at 7:32 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 gained 0.34%. The CAC 40 grew by 0.33%. The Eurostoxx 50 increased by 0.44%.
The euro rose by 0.20% against the dollar at 7:35 am CET to sell for $1.05242. A minute later, the pound sterling climbed by 0.21% against the greenback to change hands for $1.21601.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Happy Friday y’al
Weekend dead ahead, enjoy!
Japanese investors are also bucking the global trend of exiting gold exchange-traded funds, with bullion-backed ETF holdings continuing to enjoy strong growth since 2020. Japan added $18.3 million to gold-backed ETFs in August, bringing total AUM to $1.8 billion, according to data from the World Gold Council.
https://tinyurl.com/bdzn6tbb
"When Western investors wake up to the growing debt risks in the U.S., we will start to see investment demand for gold pick up," Robertson said. "I think we might be close to that point."
While Robertson remains bullish on gold, he said investors should pay more attention to the precious metals mining sector.
"Gold should always be a core part of your portfolio as an important insurance policy, but the miners right now are attractive financial assets," he said.
Robertson pointed out that gold's lackluster performance has contributed to significant pessimistic sentiment in the mining sector, creating substantial value for investors. He explained that according to some analysts, the mining sector has a discount of more than 72% compared to the broader market index.
"You still have to be selective when it comes to finding the right companies, but there is incredible value and opportunities for investors in the mining sector," he said.
https://tinyurl.com/4jyehnkn
Take a look at 5 year gold SP.
Then look a Centamin SP price.In 5 years
Compare !
In dollars of course.
Now exporting US goods ,because they artifically manage to keep the Dollar unrealsticaly high ,leaves its goods uncompetive- hence less export trade.
Time they let foreign markets ,decide.
Otherwise far less exports.
Whatever they have left the world wants , that means not a lot.
But it run up to their election year. ;-)
Insto's hold about 70% of CEY. Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index (!), and it follows they are strongly influenced by the index. Index is strongly influenced by POG. POG is down about 7% in the last month... The index is down 9-10%.
ETFs ... The third consecutive monthly outflow from North American funds – of US$2.7bn (-44t) – was the largest since September 2022 (-US$3.2bn, -60t). As the US economy continues to defy recession expectations, with resilience in household consumption, the 10-year Treasury yield rose further.
WGC Aug 2023 survey revealed that 24% of central banks intend to increase their holding reserves in the next 12 months.
No Tier 1 gold discoveries made in the last 5 years...
So it depends a lot on time orizons, and a few imponderables ...
good luck punters
the gnome
Thanks Cowichan
I would think it would be required by the market regulators, to inform the market of a top 10 movement. In Oz we have wording ... Under Listing Rule 3.1, an entity must disclose all information concerning it that it becomes aware of from any source and of any character, if a reasonable person would expect the information to have a material effect on the price or value of its securities.
Gold Price futures are all over the place in the sort term, but in the longer term all are up. Compared to other sources and experts, JPMorgan's forecast is higher than the average consensus forecast of $2,100 per ounce for 2024 and higher than most other forecasts that expect a moderate or a negative change in gold prices. A fair weight of money.
https://russellinvestments.com/au/blog/making-sense-of-us-dollar
There is huge appeal ot me ot break away from the US$ hegemony, and it is hard to think this will not happen. It introduces unfair assymetries into the market, China is rapidly expanding its global trading reach. It is well recognised that China has become the world’s largest trading nation. Less appreciated is the effect this has had in displacing the United States from its traditional dominance as a trading partner for other countries around the world. China’s economy is far more export driven than the US, it is deeply enmeshed in global supply chains, and has been growing much faster.
https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/charts/china-us-trade-dominance/us-china-competition/
In terms of policy drivers, many factors have been at play. But China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organisation has clearly been central, with the number of countries trading more with China than with the United States increasing rapidly thereafter. The US has been very unhappy with this for obvious reasons, and I think this drives a lot of the sabre rattling from the US, but rattle all they like, once the dragon awakes...As Napoleon said, "That is a sleeping dragon. Let him sleep! If he wakes, he will shake the world." He is well and truly awake, and the opionions of conflicted experts and "social influencers" in the west won't count a lot. The sun will rise in the east.
Aside ...Dont you love the US tipping system in the restaurants and arond....the minumum suggested tip is 20% now. Why dont they just pay people properly...full employment LOL
good luck
The Gnome.
Cowichan not doing enough homework and it would not be the first time marketscreener have given incomplete data.
Https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/investments/junior-gold-miners-etf/holdings/
On this particular fund I could find 3m Centamin shares you may find them listed in other gold funds,
Centamin Shares Moved From Strong Hands To Weak16 Aug 2023 16:25
I see Siko's rebuttal to my posts about Egypt have garnered many 'likes'
I am glad Siko is still posting and setting the record straight about the facts on the ground
However, the bitter pill many private Centamin shareholders are refusing to swallow is that strong hands (institutional investors) have already made their decision to sell. Like I posted before the major shareholder info on Centamin's website is not up to date. Institutions that had held for over a decade have SOLD over 200 million shares. Now many of these shares are in weak hands. What does that mean? It means many new holders won't hesitate to sell when spooked. They are not in for the long term.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
Centamin's management (chiefly Mr Horgan) has faced a confidence crisis and lost the trust of many mining analysts/portfolio managers - one remaining of which is reassessing her position. Actually THE largest position (currently Centamin's largest shareholder) You can contact her yourselves:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/imaru-casanova-75b58b64/
I will not be surprised if in the coming days and weeks she decides (if she hasn't already) to significantly reduce her Centamin holdings (nearly 10% of Centamin's float). When this happens it will be just more bad news for Mr Horgan and the share price stability going forward.
Can things turn around? Yes! The Market does not have access to the information Mr Horgan has access to. Step out drilling, geophysical surveys, satellite deposit resource figures and grades, the legitimacy (or not) of the bonanza zone, negotiations with EMRA, negotiations with interested 3rd parties - all is not lost. Yet, Mr Horgan hasn't made the choices that pleased the institutional investors - and many of the unanswered questions I've raised over the last few years are still unanswered (or the answer is not favorable)
Imaru talks about her promotion to manager of the VanEck gold ETF group of funds here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ-8sNJeYlo
Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEY.L/holders?p=CEY.L
end of August data.
Aug 16th 2023 position
#1 Van Eck 110,273,580 shares 9.519%
Today (Oct 4, 2023)
VanEck does NOT even appear in the top 10 shareholder's list (see here)
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
but, I don't know if it's possible to cash out that fast (note the other large shareholders on the list haven't materially changed) still , that might explain the drop in share price without 'news'
so that would mean VanEck now holds less than 16,623,000 shares - a sell of over 90,000,000
perhaps Centamin PR can advise ?
As pointed out by razor the volume is telling us that everybody is sitting tight or jetting off somewhere on two week October holidays and forgetting about manipulated false data pumped out by USA agencies which optionally apply seasonal adjustments to dictate the ongoing preferred rhetoric. Gold and the gold miners are getting absolutely hammered into the ground in USD currency. My foray in the low 90's on CEY was to early, but I have kept back more fire power for November. The typical length of time over many years of charts suggest that the sellers are empty on naked shorts after 4 weeks in extreme oversold conditions achieved at unbelievable levels of leverage. We have entered that zone and if we get a relief rally soon it will rollover to give that final washout bottom. At that point are piggy banks get cracked open and we fire up a rally and go overweight with the confidence that the poker hand is our favour.
As for Centamin that 1900 hedge is not being covered by ETF Cey induced selling. The share is a discounted pleasure for buyers to line up and wait and enjoy the future ride up ahead. The price going down is not something that Centamin staff can do anything more about. Tony
# Trades 1,456
Vol. Sold 871,090
Sold Value £697.42k
Vol. Bought 2,074,393
Bought Value £1.66m
Needs economic indicators point to a less like raise by fed and more likely drop - or an RNS with positive news
Who knows, but 10p would be a tempting entry point for the some directors who might then put their hands in their pockets, although they may want to wait until it hits 2p before taking the plunge!
How far this drop I wonder?
74?
Hi 3bear,
Considering how mineral rich Eygpt is there no good reason why the ordinary people should suffer such awful standards of living and abuse by their government.
Think its pretty safe to assume like most dictators Sisi wont be going short of any food or drink unlike his people whom he really doesn't care a jot about!!
Alaa Abdel Fattah and Mohamed Baker were held in inhumane conditions at the Tora Maximum Security 2 Prison, in Cairo from September 2019 to May and October 2022, respectively. Prison authorities held them in small, poorly ventilated cells and have denied them beds and mattresses
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/urgent-actions/human-rights-defender-tortured-detention
Death sentences were handed down after grossly unfair trials and executions were carried out. Sexual and gender-based violence remained prevalent, amid the authorities’ failure to adequately prevent and punish it. Authorities repressed workers’ right to strike, and failed to protect them from unfair dismissal by companies.
https://www.amnestyusa.org/countries/egypt/
Hi Tornado,
Seems to have been a prudent move, although this isn't reflected in the ridiculous share price!
Pound has dropped further when I last looked. Pound in gold rate is the same as it was 1 July as USD has took off. CFO was smart to hedge 1900 gold for half the production until end of June next year.
24 trades prior to trading, strange on no news.
European stock exchanges were lower ahead of the trading session on Wednesday as market participants prepared for services sector data out of Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, as well as euro area retail sales and producer inflation reports.
The DAX decreased by 0.27%, London's FTSE 100 declined by 0.13%, the CAC 40 was 0.23% lower and the EURO STOXX 50 lost 0.20% at 7:51 am CET.
The euro and the pound were both flat compared to the dollar, changing hands for 1.04691 and 1.20776, respectively, at 7:54 am CET.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
Happy Hump Y’al
The technical term is called a 'commitment fee' and it was $ 1,200,000 for last year
details from Annual Financial Statement below:
2.6 FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Interest bearing loans and borrowings
US$150 million Revolving Credit Facility (“RCF”)
On 22 December 2022, the Company entered into an agreement for a US$150 million RCF with four banks: Bank of Montreal (London Branch), HSBC Bank plc, ING Bank N.V. (Amsterdam Branch) and Nedbank Limited (London Branch).
As at 31 December 2022, there were no drawdowns on the facility and therefore no interest expense was recognized in the period. A facility establishment and commitment fee of US$1.2 million was recognized in the profit or loss statement.
The terms of the facility imposes certain financial covenants on the Company in respect of each Relevant Period that has an outstanding borrowing as outlined below i.e., the Company shall ensure that:
a) Interest Cover: Interest Cover in respect of any Relevant Period shall not be less than the ratio of 4:1;
b) Leverage: Leverage in respect of any Relevant Period shall not exceed the ratio of 3:1;
c) Liquidity: Liquidity shall at all times exceed US$50,000,000; and
d) Reserve Tail: at each Scheduled Reserves Assessment Date, the Reserve Tail Ratio is not less than thirty per cent
Typically the undrawn portion has a commitment fee of 35% of the applicable margin (0.8% based on currently applicable margin) i.e. $150,000,000 x .8% = $1,200,000
And for those wondering what a reserve tail is :
Reserve Tail means, with reference to the Development Plan and the Financial Model, the amount of Mining Reserves remaining to be produced as of the Maturity Date expressed as a percentage of the sum of (i) the Mining Reserves already produced at the Project and (ii) the Mining Reserves to be produced as of the relevant date of determination
Wow, you are really on a mission dude. Who is paying you? It's not Barrick cos the Nubian Shield has massive, massive, undeveloped potential...can't figure it out.
Dictators and thugs, every one. Here's a quote from Egypt's Sisi just published:
Calling his detractors “liars, saboteurs and wicked”, the Egyptian leader sought to rebuff criticism of the multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects he has undertaken since taking office, which are described by critics as unnecessary, extravagant and major contributors to Egypt’s economic crisis.
“Don’t you Egyptians dare say you would rather eat than build and progress,” Mr El Sisi said. “If the price of the nation’s progress and prosperity is to go hungry and thirsty, then let us not eat or drink.
“Don’t undermine the cause of our nation and make us the world’s laughing stock. Stand fast and transform the cruel circumstances we are going through into a gift. The harder you stand fast, the sooner it (economic crisis) will pass,” he said on Saturday, the first day of a three-day forum during which, according to Mr El Sisi, the story of Egypt since 2011 will be told from the state’s perspective.
With most of Egypt’s 105 million people struggling to cope with soaring food prices – inflation was at nearly 40 per cent in August – Mr El Sisi’s message to Egyptians to make do with even less may be seen by some as unrealistic, or even odd.
“What kind of country do you want to live in? Do you want to build Egypt and make it a nation of note, or not? Do you consider building an adventure? Do you consider reform an adventure?” Mr El Sisi said on Saturday.
The president's message that Egyptians should make do with less for the sake of the nation is being repeated, in different phrasing, by dozens of content creators across social media pages that have popped up in recent weeks to support Mr El Sisi in the December vote.
“Egypt needs a new president. El Sisi has done everything he can to protect Egypt and must be offered our thanks. Ten years are enough.”
Another senior politician, former MP Mohamed Anwar Al Sadat, warned that Egypt could be divided or even plunged into chaos because of the economic crisis and the lack of genuine democratic rule.
“We need free and fair elections that are not engineered in advance. A vote that guarantees a just political environment. An election with results that are not known in advance and which are held in a competitive framework,” Mr Al Sadat said.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/2023/10/02/el-sisi-tells-egyptians-to-make-do-with-less-as-criticism-mounts-ahead-of-elections/
So, for those hoping the BRICS will somehow put the US 'in its place' - I ask you, do you want the likes of India's Modi (who recently had a Canadian murdered on our own soil) or Putin or Sisi to rise to global dominance? I certainly don't.