Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tony,
I don't disagree that PM's are undervalued, they are.
However, there is no doubt months before the Lehmans out of business and March2020 was bad for gold and CEY- if I thought similar was on it's way now I would not hold PM stocks- it's simply crazy to do so. Simply wait, and pick them up when they drop far lower which they would do in that scenario:
March - Nov 2008 (before Lehmans) = gold down 25% and CEY down 54%
March 2020 = gold down 12% and CEY down 35%
These are the historical facts.
Equities in Europe traded mixed in the premarket on Monday after the elections were held in all Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia over the weekend. The head of the Central Election Commission for United Russia, Alexander Sidyakin, announced that, according to preliminary data, Putin's party received the majority of votes.
At 8:00 am CET, DAX was flat. Both FTSE 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.35% and 0.21% simultaneously. The CAC 40 decreased 0.11%. The euro was up by 0.27% against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for 1.07288. The pound went up against the dollar 0.38% and went for 1.25136 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DD
Happy Monday y’al
Steve
It was not dire for long. Gold and gold miners have dropped back for some time. The gold miners are generally oversold and the sentiment level is rapidly approaching levels that are 90% bearish. The ETFs have massively sold off gold for months. The HUI mining sector and gold was bombed out first in 2008 and it was the very first to pull out and recover. The fact that this sector is getting absolutely hammered at least in the mining stocks suggests they are pricing in something really big unfolding. Hopefully the truth emerges instead of outright manipulation and fraud of official stats. Gold eagle has an article on tonight. It may take a few weeks for things to show up and in the short term they may and try and make things more bearish with more false economic data. A lot of sources are now saying the data does not look right and it appears to be done to hoist up USD. Tony
September 08, 2023
The deteriorating relationship between the world’s two most populous countries is threatening to set back the BRICS currency project and undermine the bloc’s de-dollarization goals.
https://tinyurl.com/4dw7fp6c
Difference this time is that the banks have to comply with "Basel 3".
Tony- march2020 and a few months before lehmans down was dire for gold and cey- not sure why you cite this with a positive slant ?
New CAPD investment in Wia Gold24 Aug 2023 07:51
CAPD took part in Wia Gold's recent A$11m fundraising at A$0.032 (a 20% discount ot the share price at the time), summarised here:
Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02689236-6A1159402?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Per their disclosure CAPD now own 19.9% of Wia, or 183,216,279 shares - these are now worth around £3.4m at the current A$0.037 price, so CAPD have made a decent profit already on their purchase of around 123m shares:
Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02701796-6A1164548?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Unfortunate, all of them now planning to sell as much as they can.
Ooops made an error $488M is only 1/2000 of QT. So maybe not that big of event next week.
Looks like regional banks going bust may soon be unfolding State side. Republic First is in trouble and has not filed 2022 accounts. Debts are running at $488M. Interesting to see if the FED prints money to cover it and save the bank. Nearly half all that QT money they took off their balance sheet. Not sure how the FED guarantee system works. i am sure a number of other regional banks will get in the same mess as mortgage defaults pile up along with all the auto loans.
Interesting that GDP of 2.4% USA 2nd quarter growth that monkey hammered gold below 1900 a few weeks back was revised down a month later to 2.1%. I wonder how much the next revision will drop it. It is now crystal clear that falsified job data and other major economic measurements over estimate what is real to give a false narrative on the USA economy.. Current USA dollar rally is based upon utterly false data propagated over media channels. USD is seriously overvalued.
Https://insiderpaper.com/turkish-crypto-boss-sentenced-to-11196-years-in-jail/
Only wish some of the CEY BOD would make some meaningful purchases by not doing so it seems they don't believe in their own strategy!
I am seriously considering investing this years CEY divi into CAPD!
Great to see CEO buying a maiden stake here and particularly the CFO spending almost £50k on CAPD shares.
Golden Rim's shares were up 13% overnight to 9 month highs on "encouraging" drilling results at Kada, where CAPD are the drilling contractor (and also own around £1.5m of shares):
Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02683401-3A621191?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
See post from LSE CAPD forum 27th July
Good news - looks like the Allied Gold IPO is going ahead on or around August 17th.
CAPD are thought to own around 2% of Allied, and this stake was valued at $7.7m at 31/12/22 (see p.101 of the Annual Report). The stake could be worth up to another $20m or so for CAPD on Allied's IPO, on top of the very considerable $30m or so value of the rest of CAPD's investment portfolio - giving a total portfolio valuation of some $50m against the total m/cap of £167m:
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allied-gold-corp-limited-allied-204500881.html
Allied have raised the minimum $250m, and are looking for more to take them nearer the $300m originally mooted.
Difficult to tell what CAPD's upside is without knowing exactly how many Allied shares they own, unless this paragraph helps someone to work it out:
"In connection with the Going Public Event, the Common Shares will be consolidated on a 1:2.2585 basis prior to the issuance of the Resulting Issuer Shares, which are expected to trade in Canadian Dollars reflecting an effective price of approximately C$5.92 per Resulting Issuer Share."
Agreed Mr Bond.
Those share holders who were prepared to invest should not be exploited 55 % is just greed!
Best
Tibbs
8th September 2023
Allied Gold, led by the former leadership of Yamana Gold, is heading for the Toronto Stock Exchange, with the gold miner set to start trading on Monday.
Allied Gold Corp and Allied Merger Corp (AMC) on Thursday completed the previously announced business combination and reserve takeover transaction, as well as concurrent financing of $267-million.
This would aid the next phase of growth for Allied Gold, from a midtier Africa-focused gold producer to a next-generation senior gold miner. Allied Gold controls three producing mines and several development projects in Africa.
AMC was formed and capitalised by the former principals of Yamana Gold.
Over the last decade, Allied Gold has developed and acquired a portfolio of gold assets in Africa with current Mineral Reserves of approximately 10 million ounces, Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources of approximately 15.2 million ounces and Inferred Mineral Resources of approximately 1.9 million ounces1. Since 2019, Allied Gold has tripled its gold production, producing over 370,000 gold ounces in 2022.
El Sid, Egypt
The El Sid project is an active exploration project located approximately 80km east of Luxor and 170km northwest of Centamin's Sukari mine within the Arabian-Nubian Shield. The project covers a 600 km2 area across Egypt's largest former gold operation which focused on extracting high grade mineralization between 1940 and 1957 via underground mining methods with an estimated average feed grade of over 30 g/t. El Sid is under a legacy framework agreement with the Egyptian government similar to Sukari, and has not been explored with modern techniques previously. Allied Gold has an experienced and established exploration team assigned to the project and has completed 15,894 meters of diamond drilling in 90 drill holes to date.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/marrone-led-allied-gold-heads-for-toronto-listing-2023-09-08
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/05/11/2667358/0/en/Allied-Gold-Corp-Limited-Allied-Merger-Corporation-and-Mondavi-Ventures-Ltd-Announce-Binding-Letter-of-Intent-for-Business-Combination-and-Financing-for-Minimum-Proceeds-of-US-300-.html
--------------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts:
When it begins trading in Toronto on Monday Allied is expected to open with a MC of $ 1.6 billion CND - same as Centamin. Given Allied is already a multi mine geographically diversified - and profitable - mid-tier miner I expect it to have a syphoning effect of those investors wishing to play Egypt - if it hasn't already.
Alternatively more media exposure/hullabaloo about Egypt's eastern desert deposits could benefit Centamin's share price. Guess we'll see.
Either way we're about to gain access to the once privately held drill results from Allied's ongoing drill campaign at El Sid in Egypt. Go, Egypt.
Dream on. ;-)
7:52 am on 7 September 2023
Wafi-Golpu project negotiations are nearing completion and the PNG prime minister James Marape has confirmed it will be a majority PNG-owned project.
Newcrest and Harmony Gold Mining Company will have a significant minority shareholding.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/497435/png-expects-to-gain-billions-in-royalties-from-wafi-golpu-gold-mining-project
-------------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
Step 1) spend a decade & loads of shareholder capital exploring far reaches of the earth
Step 2) spend shareholder $ building vast infrastructure & processing facility (still no return)
Step 3) spend shareholder $ on wages & procurement & start up (start to pay back loans)
Step 4) discover terms gov't presented to lure foreign investment are 'too generous'
Step 5) hang upside down over a barrel, negotiating a 'fair deal' or risk nationalization
The leaders of many 3rd world nations are basically thugs - exploiting national sentiment to enrich themselves while appearing to 'do the right thing' for the people - thus investing in natural resource companies has always been and will always be the riskiest of business
unfortunately, i b*tch from experience - enjoy the weekend folks
The Federal Reserve is the only central bank short on gold and is markedly losing its ability to manipulate the gold price!
https://tinyurl.com/ye2x474f
An interesting insight as to what the future holds for the US and $
Have a good weekend all.
Mortgages are still so cheap when compared to years ago. all that happens when interest rates are lowered is that the house prices, even for crap so called starter homes are inflated and overvalued by greedy developers ,estate agents and the building industry!
Mortgage News: Virgin, TSB, Yorkshire BS Cut Rates In Wake Of Bank Of England Signals
https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/mortgages/2023/09/08/mortgage-updates/
Hope it's not as bad as this- as I fear for anyone holding Centamin stocks
Https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/us-bankruptcy-tracker-courts-see-busiest-august-on-record
Now running at the same level as March 2020 and a few months before Lehman Brothers bank failure. Banks on the receiving end of $236B losses last month.
USA manufacturing is now in a full blown recession hitting GDP at -0.7%. In dollar term it could be a lot more.
Labour Dept fabricating NFP numbers to maintain high USD currency. Approximately 50% jobs said to be created are fake. Things may be starting to unravel. Bloomberg reporting in last hour trader caution now impacting the market. The façade is beginning to slip.
Mr T, thank you for your courtesy as ever
Hi Paul, I agree, although most BOD are just tike politicians they rarely if ever want to admit they got it wrong , they much prefer to kick the can down the road until fate forces them to change course and then they blame anything and anyone , but its never them!
Very similar has occurred with this now known to be unfit for purpose concrete problem in schools and other public building , just like at Sukari the developers saw using it as a way to make a bit more at less cost and the politicians went along with it because it looked better on the budget sheets in the short term, but now that cheaper concrete is going to cost an awful lot mote in the long term to put right,
The same applies for many property management companies and trust's that invest in all sorts of properties for rent or lease, its' called "Squeezing the asset!" by spending the absolute minimum on their routine maintenance, or routine waste stripping in the case of Sukari, they failed to maintain the ATM so it stopped spitting out cash!
To be fair similar things happen with estate sections in local authorities , I've experienced when rather than do a timely repair on the roof of a museum it was it was decided that by not doing it would save much over a period of years, unfortunately though the roof then usually falls in or the building gets so damp its unusable!
As you say some acknowledgement or thanks to long term investors by the BOD would seem to be more than appropriate!
Tibbs