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Hi LGO
From what I've been reading and trying to make sense of the future plans I am convinced they will be going for another well into the Middle Cruse. Whether this is Clove I don't know but it could be another position possibly close to Saffron.
If Saffron's Lower Cruse is a success then another well targeting the Middle Cruse close to it looks obvious in my view.
The revenues are far better here than anywhere else we've got $45 at today's prices.
As for the rest of follow on wells on the SWP the next ones look like Icacos "multiple stepped intervals with missed reservoirs "
Revenues though on Icacos are lower at about $35
Looks as though this summer they will be planning works on South Erin "ready to go wells" but at today's prices is it worth maybe around $25 revenues
Last September report put the company netbacks average at only $16 mainly from Goudron so I can't see anything happening there
Innis CO2 - will they or won't they buy it?
The 2 workover rigs Cerp own, one has been in Bonasse around Xmas time the other has been with Prd and according to Paul Griffiths has achieved successfully some really difficult work for the instalment of the CO2 injection.
I believe that Clove is shallow enough for a workover rig
ATB:))
If Saffron is successful I’m going to guess a Cedros new field well (NWW of Saffron) ;D
I meant a concrete plan for the SWP. We have been told we have 12 targets. So, which one after Saffron. ?
Appreciate that Daz :) it’s also a 30 year licence and 7 years for minimum exploration too.
RE: WNZ -‘ Staatsolie intends to participate (up to 50%) in each Commercial Field that is developed. Staatsolie will fund its relevant percentage share of all costs (including back costs) associated with each Commercial Field from the date of approval of the relevant Development Plan.‘
So the extended well tests will prove important.
Hi Bamps, I sincerely hope we get a more convincing plan for the SWP than Clove. Drilling if it’s a test case
for more similar wells, I could get - but that amount for 30bopd, isn’t very appealing. You would want to
see better use of that money elsewhere, IMHO.
It still boggles me that not a single soul on this BB dares to admit or even ask, “what after Saffron?”. They had 12 targets....where are the plans? LK saying “exciting times” isn’t good enough. The man has a long list of broken promises and failures, hence Schroders bailing out as Offerman stated.
LK is getting a far too easy ride from investors, IMHO.
Hi LGO
Clove isn't a big prize and won't set the world on fire
Costs are reported to be $400,000, a Pmean of 210,000 isn't big but at this point in time we need revenue
210,000 barrels of oil in place is approx 20,000 barrels recoverable at about 30 barrels per day would take 1 year to pay back . At $45 revenue at current rate =$492,500 per annum
You can see it's only small but would generate some income. It definitely was the right decision to get Saffron done but while we're waiting get some revenue in
ATB:))
Didn’t you say Clove wasn’t worth it?
Hi Siliv
Just bought £1250 worth at 2.275 that's far too cheap got some divis due next couple of days will look to see what the price is then
Hi LTID
That would need an allotment for a share buy back I don't believe companies can do that with borrowed money
Hi GRQ
I know you've had issues recently good luck to you for the future
ATB:))
Hi Bamps i dont think individuals could organise this " i am no buisness man by the way " but couldnt the company not put some money aside or via a loan and buy schroeders shares as they come available .
Hi Offerman
If you take last September current assets of 32m and deduct last September current liabilities divided by say 900m taking into account the extra shares in issue the Nav would decrease to 2.55p
These shares are cheap as ( was going to say chips but they're dear) :))
If the other half would get off the computer I would buy some more.
LTID so if I buy 2k how much would everyone else have to fork out, let's get rid of Schroders ( I am willing to put more in). Can't Cerp organise something for us to buy them out.
Not ramping just want to get rid of Schroders
If you look at the Sept Cerp update one of their aims is to look at another country with M&A and to drill Clove besides Suriname.
ATB:))
Good morning all . My opinion for the low SP is solely
“The Schroders Effect . “
Two reasons they may be selling:
1. Things might have dragged far longer than they had hoped many things not coming to fruition for them starting with the 2017 slides presentation showing enormous percentage increases for each well at Goudron.
As always there will be setbacks with any plans some successes some complications . No point throwing money at a fiscally for set up with no returns only keeping nostrils above water . Not a dead duck just improved fiscal terms required . Maybe they felt frustrated as a whole with lack of SP progression .
2. Maybe a huge change in the investment direction maybe they are looking to get on the cleaner fuels bandwagon ( which electric actually isn’t , hydrogen would be the way to go ) . Electric just seems another big moneymaking scam . Much mining required for battery cells then what will be done when they expire ?
So maybe they are offloading for alternative markets . Would be interesting to have a look at their percentages invested in oil and gas companies over the last 3 to 4 years and see how many of those have decreased up to the present day.
If LC does not have 11 but for example 5MB Rec but MC has two or three Mbrec. An overall 8 MBO Rec is still no damp squib and would give us approximately £64m boost to MC. And even if not all of the 64M is incorporated overnight into the MC But 50% to give us £32 m on saffron alone . Add that to the current NAV 2.7p ( which today’s SP is now far below . Then we should reach 5-6 range ( that’s not including all of saffron in the event of a successful 8mbo combined Cruse level discoveries only taking in to account 50% ).
Reserves are key here for booking in and deal making for bringing this on tap with the different fund ranging options that would become available in the event of success .
Any surprises with reserves maybe even more let’s be optimistic and say 15 to 20 MBO rec for all Cruse combined , this would create massive interest and we would then be looking at huge trades 500,000 and no doubt into the millions coming through as well Which should suppress the pressure we are currently under from Schroders . A lot to be optimistic about right now until proven otherwise . Look how TXP have popped from 13p 12 weeks ago up to over 50 today . And even their market Still remains low with the potential they have . So just look at the potential we have as well in the event of a decent saffron discovery . This will pop in my opinion just need the complete results in . I’m not sure what the current situation is with ministerial permissions in saffron and if they are are RNSable requirement ? I’m assuming that has already been granted as they have been progressing with testing and current flow testing Of the LC tip of the pay zone sands.
AIMHO of course.