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Razorman - as the trolls are taking a rest at the moment can I congratulate you on creating an arch ramper in disguise - Tony Hawkins - if the loan repayments require a base level of production which they are already achieving I'd like to know where from as Saffron is nil currently and from the MEEI figs Goudron is pretty uninspiring. Looking at the accounts losses are still huge when G&A is included!
Let’s all put our differences aside and see what the logging of the mid and upper brings this week. Then we can have a more meaningful debate.
Petersalkeld - great effort - thank you!
I can see CERP drilling one well at South Erin in due course, probably not this year - if the result is lousy I envisage non renewal of the licence, subject to full investigation of any legal ramifications.
But, with some decent positive momentum from Saffron, other possibilities may open up for South Erin.
Irene - most people on here, given the COS for Saffron, wouldn't have predicted 0 bopd, but you did, in fact, according to your sweepstake, which you are very quiet about these days, most people predicted a positive outcome!
Most investors here understand the speculative nature of the business and don't seem to require an assurance of a minimum bopd figure before investing as CERP are unlikely to ever give such an undertaking !
I certainly wouldn't subscribe to any site that's inculcating such ludicrous notions to you ! If your opinions are self generated I'd recommend you consult the Government sponsored financial advice site to improve your knowledge!
Krapp, I know you just deramper and that is all why are you so negative and that being the case I guess you don't own shares and again if you do not own share get off the board.
Trading 94.8% below fair value with everything to come
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/aim-cerp/columbus-energy-resources-shares
With hopefully some more news this week, being the last week in Jan, could be expect a rise after last weeks losses or further falls???
He made a big point to me that he is not a ramper and by nature is prudent and will always seek to underpromise, to improve the probability he can over deliver. A rarity on aim. I think the RNS Friday is the first example of Tony’s influence
Thanks Razorman, hopefully a more optimistic current situation than I thought, I wouldn't disbelieve TH at this stage.
I spoke recently (last week) with Tony Hawkins. I calculated the repayments at $148k and asked about the companies ability to service that. He said that the repayments require a base level of production which they are already achieving. Also not all the funds from the two draw downs have been spent on saffron. Although he obviously wouldn’t tell me figures.
Bamps, that was the plan re loans BUT in view of the massive overrun in time, equipment hire, manpower etc what's left in the kitty is pure guesswork, we don't know what they started with, we're never privy to cash in hand info.
I would rather err on the cautious as far as WTI price is concerned and our subsequent net revenue.
ATB to you too, looking forward to additional news this week.
Hi Obadhia
I hope the Lind tranches aren't used up yet as some was reserved for Suriname.
Bonasse is Cerp's best fiscal asset at $60 Wti price Cerp retain $50 revenue so reworking your figures a little makes 108 bopd to finance the loan which sounds a bit better
ATB:))
Hi Bamps. The two Lind tranches must be close to fully used on Saffron and come April there'll be a monthly repayment of $163,000, the equivalent of nearly 150bopd at $40 net. Production level of course remains to be seen. I really do not see any choice when it comes to developing the SWP other than enlisting a farm in/JV. Apart from the fiscal benefit it would speed things up dramatically and hugely assist bringing Leo's 5 year plan to fruition.
I can't see the cost of Clove staying around $500,000
Now they know what to expect I think it will be cased with a larger dia drill but that's only my opinion.
After the successful completion of the well a farm in or joint venture is the preferred option. This has been stated a few times by Cerp
Other options for finance can also be used including forward selling, corporate debt to continue operations
Simple maths............. :/
https://blogs.dnvgl.com/software/2016/12/p10-p50-and-p90/
All the best (now......... where's my degree.......:()
also......Clove already has road access to site......... :)
I would preferably see additional wells happen around Saffron as it's in the centre of the P90 contour and Clove is outside - I totally agree. Clove was just referenced as a likely costs for similar depth wells in better locations
There are a few scenarios for the Lower Cruse
1 - the horizons are the only stable strata where oil will flow and the sands below are too unstable to perforate , giving a net pay of around 25'
2 - oil is found in the horizons and the sands are commercial to flow, with water at the base driving the oil upwards
Gross pay of up to 850' and net pay ?
3 - the horizons are full of gas and gas/oil forming 3 gas caps. This can be then reinjected to reinvigorate the oil enabling the recovery factor to be greater
4 - water could be sat on top of the horizons and at the base
Hi Razorman
The Upper and Middle Cruse at Saffron should be a better prospect than at the Clove position.
A P50 mean of only 170,000 barrels oil in place at 10% recovery = 17,000 barrels.
I would preferably see additional wells happen around Saffron as it's in the centre of the P90 contour and Clove is outside
ATB:))
“The interpretation for the Upper Cruse and Middle Cruse (the tertiary and secondary targets) are expected shortly.”
Shortly I would hope to be next week. Remember there was oil seep at the surface, there is a chance the oil is shallow at the SWP. If that is the case drilling costs would be much reduced to access it. Possibly we could avoid a JV or farm out. Ministry requires production from the lowest levels first, so all they would need to do is drill to the middle (or even upper) cruse and stop - making that the lowest point. Clove I think was estimated at only £500k to get to 2,200ft. I have a feeling there could be a strategy change once we see the logging results, hopefully next week.
Here is RNS link ( https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/CERP/13717981.html ), petersalkeld.
Also https://columbus-erp.com/news/webcasts/.
BW
in4cedros
This is the best I can do
I wouldn't know where to begin
Of a lady who lived in south Erin.
This sweet damoiselle,
Knows very well
That in two O two one,
There's five wells to be done.
But she has the feeling,
However appealing,
This may not occur.
Other things may deter.
So clarify please
The action on these.
Peter - after you've read the geological report on that prospect you may wish to finish the following :-
There was a young lady from South Erin
Who claimed the forest layer was appealing
No smut though !
Peter - it was what could be considered a transformational rns - much discussed at the time - available by googling ' investegate rns CERP ' .
I can't find an RNS dated 13/07/2018
Bamps - South Erin deal detailed in 13/07/2018 rns - MWO 5 pre 31/12 2021 - tick - tock!
Pdf - CPR for South Erin available - Google West Indian International Group - good read for someone like you - I liked the pictures!