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I think we have assume oligarch psychology here. They want a large strong company with a good dividend flow preferably offshore, but haven't got the cash to get it really moving fast. They see the deeps as the big prize, so they have used MJF as a cash cow and reinvested in speculative deep wells but sometimes rather on the cheap (until recently).
With the wisdom of hindsight we can see this strategy hasn't worked, and now the covid drop in the oil price has come at just the wrong time when they needed cashflow to sort the deep wells out. They can keep things going with slow MJF expansion and some remedial work on the deeps that they have already drilled. They are now dependent on a recovery in oil prices to get things moving again.
If the existing deep wells can't be made to work, then they haven't the cash for a new deep well, so the cheaper MJF wells are likely to be their only mid-term strategy. As CC said in his post, they probably should have gone for this in the first place, and it may be that this year they are forced into this path by events.
I think the main players are not interested in selling shares unless they have to and they are in it for the long term dividends.
Mr C - in my 11th year of CASP .... I haven't a clue what they are up to.
A logical development plan would have been.
1.Develop MJF to 30 well field.
2.Use free flow cash to bring in Western or specialist Chinese deep well drillers to drill BNG 3 wells and train up casps staff.
3.Sell for Billions of $.
They've bought, sold, exchanged, brought in people, seen them leave... the overall net gain seems to be for benefit of Kuat, Kairat and Raushan.
They couldn't have foreseen COVID but oil wars aren't new, they left themselves weaker maybe because of these background chess games than they would otherwise have needed to.
Maybe when they have finished dumping and re-buying shares amongst their families it may come good, but so far as soon as it gets arounf the 10 or 11p mark they do something insane, like take on more debt or just screw something up and down it goes again. Given what seems to be their strategy there will come a day when they want their payday, but none of us have any idea as to when this will be (there are some on this board who will claim to know).
Hi CC, I have never objected to your very helpful share tips to people on this board. I did make a remark the other day when the CASP board seemed to have turned in to an auxiliary TILS board. I have occasionally made of off topic tips on other boards, myself.
I expect you noticed the positivity thing was a bit tongue in cheek as was JR's original posting. What we really need is balance. Sometimes the discussion swings between wild optimism to black despair witth no real reason for the change.
At present what we have is some successful development of the MJF field which looks set to continue, but perhaps at a slower pace than before covid19, and a considerable slowdown on the deeps development, also due to covid19. Having checked it out I agree that Yelemes is of little consequence. Meanwhile the oil price is showing a solid return to more commercial (for CASP) levels and may well shift up further over the summer and into the winter.
My own feeling about this share at the moment is a mixture of cautious optimism and frustration with the poor communications. Its not going to set the world on fire any time soon, but I am expecting steady progress over the next few months.
Un, re positivity but ppl dont want to hear about tils and odx ???
And that applies to you too CC. More positivity please. After all it is Thursday tomorrow! I am expecting good production figures for May which should be announced in a couple of weeks. In the case of the deeps we need some rather more sensible positivity, so I am expecting a little progress on A5 by the end of June and the delivery of acid to the other wells.
Onwards and upwards!
Un - Yelemes is nothing to get excited about - as Adrainz says its a smoke screen and they didnt take MJF offline to gain an international licence.
The website is a nothing - complete farce.
As Adrianz said now we can see what they have been doing, whittling down the concert party to kuat,kairat,Raushan and daehan .... when is it our turn ?