The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
You could be right this is only about the 200th time I have heard something like this !
No Cautious one , this is the start of the rise to 20p plus by end of June.
Just more optimism regarding the world oil prices...
It will be very soon.
Is it re-rating or is something gushing
4.4p paid
Wait until that new acid sorts the deeps out and bang ! we will see the 20p plus figures of years ago in a few short weeks.
KK maybe they are going to serve up a lovely surprise for the year end results? They must be due any day now...…...
Awax,
Re bonus scheme, yes they did and yes they make money as sp and m/cap appreciates but wouldn't it be nice if Clive and Tim get some skin in the game, maybe then they'll be a little more articulate or should i say accurate when communicating with the investor base.
Nice to see the sp moving, probably in anticipation of the 2019 Finals, hopefully with a positive operational update and an encouraging forward looking statement.
Uncertain,
You're figures are plausible, the key ingredient, MJF being nailed on and delivering 7000 bopd. Dividend paying company ? wasn't one of my expectations, i expected them to sell out as soon as they could prove up the deeps and justify the acreage potential with some good reserves numbers.
Adrianz has alluded to the fact that their communication is shocking, it is. How many RNS corrections do they have to make ? often after PIs have contacted Clive or the Nomad, it isn't good enough. We are powerless to change that as the cards are held by KO and co and we can but hope that it improves or sell on.
MJF at 7000bopd ? has to be achievable when 143,150 and 153 are producing at 500 bopd+ but as always the communication is poor eg 1700, 2000, 2300 with Yelemes which is only producing c100 bopd ? Last A5 update, was producing xbopd per day, that's oil not mud and how long did it flow for, not very long and figures extrapolated.
Caspian's biggest issue is credibility and the only thing that changes that is a deep success where their many misgivings will become history as the hype kicks in. We have to hope that they get there this year as that's when all of us make money and there is good news, it is a free punt from this level and there's not many stocks in that bucket.
Didn’t the bod introduce a share incentive/bonus scheme which doesn’t pay till sp is mid teens?
KumKuat ... you nailed it in your opening sentence.
Clive can write off 300, 600 or 1500 bopd with a stroke of a pen. You could be flowing oil one day and mud the next.
That's not acceptable from 100 mil mcap company.
It's currently 3.9265 to sell and 3.995 to buy .... no idea what's going on.
Kumkuat, rather than guess the NAV, what would the dividend be on a fully developed MJF field? Taking the midpoint of 7000bopd and assuming a profit of $20 per barrel at current oil prices (conservatively based on previous guesses by CASP), that's $140k per day which comes in at around $50 million profit p.a. and an addition of $2.5 million per dollar rise in the POO after that. Taxes are structured to come in at higher POO levels than this. If half is distributed in dividend this would come out at about 1p, which would easily justify 10p per share without the deeps, Yelemes, 3AB, or whatever they plan to do with Boaty McDrillface. If the POO rose to $60, the pofit and divi would double putting us up at 20p minimum.
Of course all this is predicated upoon the full MJF being developed so wouldn't happen all at once, but MJF seems pretty nailed on now. Throw in a few deeps and 40p doesn't seem unreasonable. DYOC
What is the NAV for Caspian ?
M/cap £73m pre the CE acquisition
Production @ 2300 bopd with Yelemes or is that 2000 or 1700 ?
The share price crashed to 2.4p, oil prices the same to $19. Share price bounced to 6p+ pre oil price rebound and sp receded to current levels. MJF projections of 6-8000 bopd, if we take the mean, that's 290bopd from each of the planned 24 wells. Some wells will produce over 500bopd as per 143,150 and 153 and others on the reservoir periphery will probably produce 100bopd so the mean value of 290 bopd is more than achievable. What is MJF true NAV based on the recover expectation over the 29 year production licence ?
The sp and NAV are currently way out of kilter, no value for the deeps or other assets in the portfolio. Sunk costs on the deep wells are probably $60m+ as of today and zero value in current NAV. The volume has dissipated over the last few weeks as PIs, probably the larger holders have chased far better returns in other stocks. We have a persistent seller or sellers that continue to absorb any buying interest in a thin market, Kazakh or PI ?
Oil price over $41 and likely to continue it's run if Opec/Opec+ commit to cuts and June/July contracts will spike as supply destruction continues.
If we take 2000 as the current MJF production, 60000 bopm at a net back of c $20, we can all calculate what the revenues are and the trend on production and oil price will continue the journey northwards. Each well at MJF in the short term will be adding 10000 bopm, the average oil prices in 2018/2019 were c $70 so we can see what production revenues are likely based on sensible valuations.
The deeps have been a disaster but the company believe that A5 will deliver and there has to be another strategy if the acid does not resolve the overbalanced drilling and the resultant Barite mud blockage issue. If no success in 2020, maybe time to farm out or JV with another partner skilled in delivering challenging deeps, not easy I know and probably unlikely.
I still maintain there's huge sp appreciation from the current levels. MJF alone delivers healthy returns but will the real value be unlocked ? Kuat, family and friends are running it like a lifestyle business, the asset accumulation, tax planning, share dumping has to stop if we are to make real money.
Kuat and co make real money when the sp goes north. I'm sure KO or Aibek want to be the local big shots and the eventual value creation comes from a production company that's doing what they say ie producing oil in volume rather than building the m/cap through asset acquisition that deliver little return.
Time to get off the pot and deliver as to the 'special' company plan. Undervalued today but sentiment and credibility shot hence the current m/cap. The company need to solve the deep conundrum quickly or get somebody in who can or this saga will run and the exploratory phase at BNG will have come to an end. One deep success, we know what happens next.