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Somm,
Historically Finals have been out 2nd and 3rd week in May but as you say, last year was late June so entirely likely again, especially if they want more time for other news outside of the FY 2020 commentary.
Financials for 2020, not expecting great things but it will be good to understand oil prices received through the worst of the Covid crisis.
A8 and fracking, i'm not expecting anything but hoping that i'm wrong, I'm keen to see our new COO act in a professional manner and communicate his strategy without Carver spinning his BS.
Financial Report (FR) wasn't out until 25 June last year, expect the same timeframe this year.
IMO. I reckon the 154 well will have hit TD and fracking commenced on the A8 Well before the FR is out and the A5 Wells stuck pipe sorted too.
I fully expect a carp amount in the bank end of 2020, but who cares, that was then and it's all about the now re multiple game changers once again on the horizon.
Lots of fingers in the pie here and will only take one to be licked to see a smile on everyone's face, well almost everyone.
CC,
As i've always stated, investment responsibility sits with the investor and if they're not doing their research and relying on others, then only one person to blame. Always good to share research and that's why we have a BB but as always, that research needs to be validated.
This is a buy if MJF delivers and next well needs to be productive ie over 200bopd. They've thrown in the horizontal drilling titbit but we need to see the plans and timings.
A positive MJF appeal result will give the sp a boost especially if there's a credit for historic overcharging and will enavble them to waste more money on the deeps.
Quite simply, Mr Shin needs to set out his detailed plans so investors know whether this is something worth being invested in or not. No good getting Clive stating that we may consider horizontal drilling or fracking on A8, as investors we should be getting better communication.
Next news should be financials this month but it wouldn't surprise me if he delayed it until June and have more to say about 154 and other operational activity. It's likely that the domestic prices will continue to increase although not hugely material.
I always asuumed they were wind ups of some kind or another. Those of us who have been here a little while remember your opinion changed with the wind and so always take your posts with a pinch of salt.
A shame really, as you understand the share reasonably well and often make useful comments.
KK, when flawless was active under the name of flawless, half of those wind ups didnt suit my trading agenda, but they made me laugh, as I said to him the beauty of trading on AIM is you can tell ppl exactly what you think and are going to do and they'll assume you are lying ... i e. Im selling in morning, they'll buy yr stock ....
CC,
Can't argue with a lot of the content in your post 29th April but as you know, you've ramped and de-ramped this stock to suit your trading agenda, especially at the time where Flawless was active. It has also been the sitting target for many P&D plays orchestrated by parties with buying power but less so now as the stock is off radar for many gullible enough to fall for it.
Current valuation @ £48m ? i have a different view when assessing the current assets and there are only 2 with fundamental value, MJF/SY and the CE, i suppose you can include the rigs but that would be scraping the value. I can't disagree with your MJF assessment and the latest wells productivity have been overstated and has left a question as to why and will it be the same for future wells ? i suppose 154 will give us some indication. The original plan was a 24 well field and initial expectations of 8k bopd but as we all know, that was BS and i'm hoping that 200bopd is the likely average and a 4-5k outcome with horizontal drilling to increase that number ? Truth is, none of us know and the 18/27mboe P1/2 numbers could be BS too but they can only substantiate that by drilling more wells.
Old Boaty, it has considerable value on the balance sheet but it's a cost to the P&L and we'll see more detail when the accounts are out this month. Ideally it needs to be rented on a lucrative contract or maybe sold or broken up .
The deeps, no value, just a cost and they continue spending. Is our new COO going to stick his head above the parapet and position his detailed operational plan together with timings. Need the detail re the fracking plan, who the partner is and understanding of likely success. Also the Devonian, when, how, who.
By my sums, 2021 will be the most profitable year as production is on par with 2019 levels but one key difference, we're benefitting from export prices whereas only 3 months in 2019. Throw in the cost cutting, salary substitution and diminished operational spend, we should see the best set of accounts since incorporation.
The shallows will deliver sp upside providing that MJF future wells are productive, that's to be proved but it's really only a sideshow. We're all here for the deeps and there's still a chance plus a poke at the Devonian. 3AB ? drill a hole or sell it. Boaty, get a contract or sell it and use proceeds to exploit Devonian and 3AB so that we can include or cross them off the list.
Better investments around, definitely but it won't take much to light that touch paper and hoping that we don't need another 14 years to find out .
At one time the CEO said he might arrange a tour if we went over there. That would be pretty cool. I defiantly am not going anywhere until the Covid quarantines are over with. Sitting in a hotel for two weeks is longer than an actual vacation.
well I may be over there in the next few months all going well and there is no more nonsense lockdowns! I'm over to Azerbaijan (Baku) for both work and to see my mate who works over there, so going to try arrange to go over to kazak while I'm visiting.
If you fly to Kazakhstan , no word of a lie , i will join. Fly there , get close to the drilling operations, observe and identify workers/drillers/operatives to talk to, we may stumble across some priceless info
CC I have always found your contributions straight forward. I haven't ever been able to trade this. Being stuck in the OTC in the US there have been years I was the only one to buy. I had to pay up to get them to secure and sell me shares. Getting out without massive volume will be almist impossible. So I am stuck here till something major happens.
Bob - I did have hopes they had a good road map and learnt from prev mistakes/ lack of success. I had traded into a reasonably large position here that took me a few years to accumulate so certainly was bullish and if you like ' invested' , didn't like what I saw coming through and traded it in and out when Kairat took his loan, put it all on here what I thought, as I explained to Flawless one day, on AIM you can tell people the truth and exactly what you think and are going to do and they will think you are doing the opposite, when I said this is 5h1t, i'm selling that wasn't a ruse to take more stock, I sold and rebought on dips for a trade, uptrend bullish, down trend with Clive's latest missive on how useless they'd been, less so, only have a dribble left now, make of it what you will m8.
Fracking can help in a case like this. What blows my mind is they finally hired a real specialist in unclogging wells like this. They did normal acid in a specialized manner. Determined that they had to adjust the formula for the mud we used. Then the correct
acid was supposed to be on the way. Ohhhh no it is stuck at the border by Covid OK reasonable. Then all of the sudden RADIO SILENCE on the specialized acid treatment. They have done this at least 6 times. We are waiting for something they told us was about to happen and then you never hear it mentioned again let alone an explanation. I so bad want to get to a share holders meeting and read so of this stuff they tell us back to them and then ask what the HECK happened. There might be legitimate explanations. But not giving them to us is not acceptable.
If they were in the states I would be camped out at their offices for when the CEO showed up request an explanation. I am tempted to fly to Kazakhstan.
Egypt doesn't seem much better than Kazakhstan CC. UOG seem quite similar in having much more potential than output. Their account presentation is much better, but I'm hoping for an improvement from CASP on that score as they move to the new accounting basis.
Fido, the question then is, does your friend have much oil knowledge!
Go and get your mum to give you a glass of milk FFS -- children !!!
Cc spot on, I do recall you being very bullish though back in the day! ;o) I still have a toe or 2 in this share, they sit at a loss but a loss that I have come to terms with so will just sit on it as a gamble, the only thing that will save casp is a deep flowing at a decent rate and pressure, that is it other than that this is dead share, its been flogged too many times by the board.
I still believe our Kazaki friend! Some deeps will flow soon....
Un Certain, you only need to have friends to get the right info...... so you don't need to have oil knowledge.
This share will rock....
Uncertain almost nothing is priced in ?????
Mate I'm sorry but that isn't how I read it.
45M Market Cap on 12 - 1600 bopd ??
UOG £31m market cap better/similar juristiction with wells planned and successes to boot .... etc etc ... oil is in recovery mode, CASP is catching up to its current valuation, nothing more.
The only thing keeping Casps market cap where it is ( so high ) is we and the Kazaks have stopped trading the downward spiral, and there are a lot of UK holders heavily underwater on large positions, gagging to retain their liquidity, the sells you see may be BOD salary stock as they will need to live off of something and they are being taken up by some U.K. investors who are hoping to get lucky or haven't looked at a peer comparison lately, take that away and this is a sack of 5h1t, I wouldnt go putting the farm in here.
Some good common sense there CC. I think 2020 was survival and the first half of 2021 is getting back on top of things with the help of the oil price recovery. I am not knowledgeable about deep well fracking. Perhaps Fido and Rocky can help us out there with the depth of their technical knowledge
Hopefully we will have a good summer. I remain cautiously optimistic as I believe almost nothing is priced in.
Ahh 10p, thank God I sold when I did, when Kairat took that loan against his shares 12 - 14p area, I started selling down didn't like that, RNS for loan then he stood down from the BOD so no further updates were required that was a warning sign for me, still have a few for the next 'pleased to report news" from Arbuckle, I took some grief at the time from the flawless camp and some of the rest of you that still post here, you must have short memories lol.
In 11 years 2.4p - 24p, 2.4p - 14p, 2.4p - 6p seen some of those ranges a few times, in all honesty its been a great trading stock but they have wrecked it for the time being... only thing I look at, is when they are putting money in to jiggle more stock for themselves, instead they stuffed the boat into Casp at an apparent loss to Kuat - that isn't how he operates, giving more to take less stock that was another warning sign, the £1m placing to keep the lights on was desperate, Kuat couldn't even find the desire to sell something to put another £1m in to take more stock, as I said way back when it will see 2p, got given grief, then 1p zone - more grief from the usual suspects ... it did.
2021 for me is survival, then consolidation into MJF and stop the rot of constantly falling recoverables - they are still gambling on a deep - fraccing now after all of these years ? That is either rubbish to feed the market so the BOD can sell salary shares into liquidity or else shows how inept their decision making process has been, reading the RNS it is stuck pipes ( again ) hoping to get international licence on the old Soviet wells ( not a game changer ) MJF dragging their feet on field dev plan as over stretched into 3AB and the deeps ... fraccing the deeps ....
News items need to be very positive here on in, previously a group would be thrown tidbits that an RNS was coming and that would get leaked and people would buy in just before each RNS ( good sell point ) the RNS would come out and the sp would dip ( rebuy point ) as regular as clock work.
Positives for me would be 3AB sold, handed back or free carry farm in, Deeps mothballed so all funds can go into MJF to get production value to a steady rate of 5k bopd, then from a position of stability hire the professionals or farm in to a major for the deeps.
Boaty Mc Drill Face - Sold or scrapped, who cares about another Kashagan if you cant even develop MJF or unblock a land deep drill from constantly sticking pipes, large deep capacity drill taken off it and used to fast track MJF field, cost savings = another MJF drill, profit from boat ( remember its worth far more than we paid for it lol ) will pay for another drill.
Clarity in RNS. ( Remember Clive at an AGM saying, we don't have to give you the information that we do, maybe we will stop doing that, as most of it was incorrect and he then answered " i'm not technical " why put someone who is self professed not qualified for the job up front and centre ? Another note to sell.
Basher Mr Cautious, heard you don't have any money so get lost!
Basher Mr Un Certain, how is your excel doing........pffff
CC- i feel your pain - tell the Rocketeer idiot !
I wish it was 10p you idiot !
I think most LTHs are under water here which can make us a little grumpy. However, I still maintain that we should see some progress from here. Currently the sp drifts down between RNSs perhaps because there are relatively few new buyers. My view is that we should receive some good news by July, and quite possibly before then.
Mr C - Performed terribly over 11+ years for me ... shocking and can't even trade it at the moment as they've beaten it to a standstill with lack of progress and in house dilution to Kuat et al.
Thanks for your comments Tony.