The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I think averaging down on a share without VERY good reason is and investing 101 mistake - after all its what Nick Leeson of Barings tried to do ! I have bought some cheap to just recoup short term some losses on a trade, but I admit this is just a punt because none of us really know if this is always going to be a piece of _______ or whether it will ever come good.
I have way too much invested and the thought of "averaging down" makes me feel ill! If they can get the oil out of the ground how do they get it to market? There is no pipeline and no train line, so only trucks? 1500 barrels a day is like 10 trucks a day. Is that really a strategy for a large oil company?
@spotify I was referring to the future. If/when the Covid is done and the deeps come in. Looking like a couple of years or at least 18 months. Something for my children at this point.
It's only one decimal point ! Covid is definitely taking it's toll on my arithmetic, hoping that my accounts are more accurate.
Still a bargain for 6m shares though but currently the trading trend is red, Some really healthy bottom feeding last week and i expected it to follow through. Shorts closing ? Bullet Ant showed his intentions when the sp was far higher, on the Share Prophets radar from TW and co.
One thing i do know, we need positive news and there's plenty of opportunity to do so with updates on SY/MJF workovers/151 and the deeps. Also submitted questions to be answered by Clive and co by 6th October and i was expecting to see an update before then.
Hopefully all investors have asked questions, regardless of duplication, an opportunity to clear up any confusion. For me i only have a few, namely -;
1. Clarity on the deeps. Qualification of the 'flowing' statement. How many bopd, how long have they been flowing, rates improving ?
2. Are you planning to use the BH recommended acid if acid treatment fails ?
3. If deeps don't flow, next steps ?
4. What are the current netbacks from exported oil
5. Is there a deterioration in your relationship with the Kazakh authorities
6. Are they going to agree to work commitment deferral and no risk of losing licences
7. When are you expecting the SY approval
8. When is the delayed CPR planned
There are loads of questions but the one i want clarification on is the deeps, the real detail.
Nobody seems interested in buying any at the mo
you mean £1.1 mil ... £115K only gets you around 5mil shares.
I have a few grands with at 1.8p so they should come good, but the larger residue of my holding needs a bit more of a boost !
Always hoped with my old holding here that a proper re-rate would get me an R8. These opportunities don't come along often so the same re-rate would see me with two...…..but one will do!
adrianz - I think this is right, they play the RNS's like a stream trout on the very edge of what is the truth most of the time. Im surprised if they dont consult a psychoanalyst to learn how to use subliminal messaging on some of their announcements !
I would do a fair bit of hand snapping for 12p and see an end to this sorry saga...
Let's hope you're right.
Yes, £115k now buys a disclosable holding, that is a fact. Going back to the IPO, i and others have accumulated a pile of stock that would need to be disclosable, sadly not the same today with dilution @ a magnitude of x 12.
KumKuat, clearly Clive knew what language to use in order to ramp/manipulate up the price to provide an exit for Dobsol & others.
The recent negative language isn't accidental. They've all picked up shares on the cheap. A new investor/placee can pick up just under 60 mil shares without the need for notification.
They'll let this rip back to 12p when they are ready.
Unfortunately they've always been scant on detail and obviously a reason for it. The 1500 bopd from the last A5 flow test was an absolute LIE, no getting away from that and many people invested based on that info.
I sill look back to the communication on the initial A5 discovery, the hyping of the investor base with weekly core sample updates as the sp multiplied by almost 6 bags.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/60220/roxi-petroleum-pulls-back-as-it-awaits-analysis-of-a5-discovery-70617.html
This followed by positive commentary on all subsequent wells, core samples showing the abundance of oil over approx 100m depth but here we are many years later and m/cap 50% of that at IPO.
I stay invested not for FOMO but i still see the many bags that i first saw when i made the initial investment. I still don't see the insolvency situation unless oil crashed for a sustained period, it wouldn't only be Caspian that would go to the wall. I still maintain that turn Caspian into a medium sized oiler, a $billion company. Currently smoking dope at £35m m/cap but at this stage as far as i see it, everything to play for and KO only makes the big time with an sp way north of here.
KumKuat - agree- from that RNS the deeps could just be surface seepage, that to is contained within not flowing at commercial rates .... Carver's lack of detail is strange , they are up the creek with a boat but no paddle and are still repeating the same mistakes from 10 years ago ... its a weird one - group of successful multi millionaires, repeatedly employing people across different job specs that aren't fit for purpose ?
Future value ? Very hard to feel positive for future valuations but 35p and £700m m/cap seems like a pipe dream. Is it possible, yes and much more but that can only be achieved with deep success. They’ve made the 58km2 statement and have the Devonian to drill. They have 3AB to stick a hole in . The potential has always been there since 2007 ! but after 13 years still not there and the end result could be a load of wasted cash and failure.
As always with Carver, you never get enough info, the real detail needed to make informed decisions. Even the deep commentary in the Interims was vague. They’re flowing but not at previous levels recorded ? give us the detail !
I’ve not given up on the deeps yet and questions have been asked of the company so hopefully we get sensible responses. Personally I’m hoping for news pre getting the answers.
The main priority now is to dispel any going concern fears and the only way they do that is by getting all the shallows flowing 141/144/151 and SY licence sorted, this makes life a lot easier especially with oil at $42.
Whilst they do that, you never know, we may get a surprise from the deeps or even rent out the boat !
I'm sorry, wasn't sure whether you were being serious or not then?
35p! Is that a realistic target ? I think a lot would bite ya hand off for 12p at the minute. Did you pluck that figure out or is there method behind that number?
Cheers and good luck.
Even if oil went back up and they got the deeps flowing we will never get what we would have back then. Oil was over a $100 a barrel and looked to keep climbing. It will not go and stay there again. At least not soon enough to affect us. Also with all the self dealing they stuck a bunch of that future pound in their pockets. We own a hell of a lot less of the deeps than we used to by dilution at pennies and the JV will take at least 50% of what is left. Boatie will never make up for that. Still 35 pence would be life changing for me.
KumKuat - Needs 151 and its gas cap to be resolved successfully.
Adrainz - as usual mate spot on analysis.
BNG & 3AB - may as well give 50% away for the first 10 drills to be completed on BNG and minimum to retain 3AB as partners buy in cost = circa $60 - $100m buy in, take the drill off of the boat and crack on until boat contract come in for 2021 / 22.
MJF and Yelemes retain full ownership and pump them dry, infill around the crown top of 151 to miss the gas cap and git the oil ??
Adrianz,
You are on the money and i'm p*ssed off that i did not read the accounts properly . Only read the notes in detail just now re non current liabilities on BNG....doh !
I think there's been a few naughty boys that have been spreading malicious rumours and it wouldn't surprise me if one of them was a broker !!!
Oversold and won't take much to see this bounce and i will help .
KumKuat, the BNG historic cost ($250k/month) is a red herring. We've been paying that since Sept'19.
It's only become an issue because as usual Clive tried to deflect the blame on someone else for the cash squeeze. He didn't expect the market would react so badly to his whinge-fest.
It's not a tax but money the Kaz gov has already spent on BNG for Casp. BoD should grow a pair and pay what they knew was coming when they first took over BNG. A fair settlement would be to perhaps get a payment holiday of 18months in light of covid. They have dragged their heels on BNG and I side with the state on this one. Either get on with drilling and get production up or return the license to the state so somone else can have a go.
They main finance issue is the oil they owe local traders and the interest on loans to Kuat himself. Get those sorted and export 70% of MJF.
With all 9 wells operational the net back income from MJF will be around $1.2mil/month (POO @ $40)
The only expense after that is the $250k/month BNG cost & salaries.
If they don't drill anymore they can bank $500-$750k/month profit. More if they get yelemes.
Clive painted a dire picture in interims to hide the fact that they wasted 2 years moving assets around when they could have been drilling MJF.
Additionaly, flow a deep and that $250k will look like the bill for a typical night out for the BoD.
I think they have learnt their lesson and we'll see a JV soon. The historic cost is the right kick up the backside IMO, for them to now start moving quickly on the deeps. I wasn't happy with the structure by structue deal either because I knew it gave Kuat the oppoutunity to delay the deeps forever ... which he did.
10p coming soon.
jester - are you actually aware of how long they have been trying to flow the deeps ?
We'll surpass 10p once jv is announced and deeps flowing. You watch this space
Yes I remember the heady days when 10p was a nominal price for CASP, now its an 'eldorado' price !
10p seems a long way off at this moment though.
Yes the famous £1 party. Been waiting 10 years ha ha . Actually in need 10p and I'm out. GLA