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Crude through $86 and passed the highest since 2014. $90 next stop , $100 before Xmas ? Just need some more oil :)
Saw that programme last night - utterly pointless IMO...
Joes Lycett vs The Oil Giant on T.V.
Goes up against Shell, they arent moving away from oil in the next 10 years, by 2050 they will have green technologies.
That means Casp can pump it like crazy for the next 30 years of Dividends ...
Sorts me out.
Badge ... and #GTC Hydrogen .... thats going to take off very soon.
First project's location to be announced, then the following four, then next 95 and the change in roll out to include the European plans.
The rise in gas prices has been proportionately so much greater than it has for oil that it gives oil some polittical protection.
I too think oil will get to $100, it suits the wests green agenda, a lot easier to move peoples to electric when oil is high.
CC, agree that it’s payback time and crude is likely to continue it’s March northwards. Production levels way down from pre Covid levels and the winter months could see a spike above $100 but I don’t believe it will be sustainable for long.
Great for oil producing countries and companies so let’s hope our Casper gets lucky going forward. The shallows need to be accelerated to fund other ventures and to resolve the current deep conundrum. Spend the money doing it right and not on a shoestring.
At 4p, with production building and assets moving on from mothball status, the odds are now heavily in our favour. Hopefully no more disappointment and that this week compounds the recent move from the 1.5p low.
TT.
Mr C,
It is an interesting question...
Lets us assume that all oil producing nations of Opec + , plus Norway and the UK suffered the most from - zero oil and covid, they shut their economies and paid their populace ( staff) a living wage in the shut in from Covid.
The manufacturing nations of China, India, Korea etc who have little to no energy resources coined the revenue curves from covid and received the benefit payments.
Now the wheel has turned and everyone else has decided to restart their own manufacturing and take some of the pie back from these other economies, one of their main drivers is oil price, they want to cause inflation within this manufacturing process whilst curtailing / fining their ability to burn coal so that cost of goods rise ....
Looking good for an oil producer on their border ....
Personally I dont think oil will be allowed to rise much more. Western and non-oil economies will put so much pressure on OPEC it will have to come down. OPEC are trying to bet their money back from the COVID months especially when oil went to zero. Bear in mind that the OPEC countries get everything from the developed world including services and technology. Without the developed world they are mostly screwed !
Mike,
Toad can spend ÂŁ20k and have an electric conversion and get quicker acceleration, he will be fine.
The Casp chart shows repeated rises to 10, 12, & 14p with drops to 2.4p .. I'm expecting to see the previous high of 24p get completely battered next year, this has been a buy and accumulate on any drops for a while, wider market will start researching and piling in after next increase in production.
CC, Indeed oil is set to rise, no good for Toad of Toad Hall in his F40 (KK), but good for us
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-tight-supply-set-weekly-gain-more-than-2-2021-10-15/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58727437
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/someone-is-betting-that-oil-will-soar-to-a-record-200-a-barrel
And finally , Bank of America Corp. this week underlined an earlier call that crude could top US$100 a barrel at some point over the winter, if it is exceptionally cold.t’s not just US$200 calls that have been trading in recent days. Holdings in Brent US$100 calls through to the end of next year have climbed by 20,000 contracts this month.
CASP is now a very strong buy IMO
CC, that definitely takes you to No1 on the rampometer.
North of 30p, multiples of.
KK ...
The Zero extra charges on the deeps ( assuming that they flow ) is a game changer, even on just the shallows they are very affordable and would leave a decent level of free cash.
Add in the 99% ownership of the whole BNG, MJF, South Yelemes shallow and deep fields, means that the whole shebang can be sold to another owner or concert party without it going to the Government in Kazakhstan for approval and tax increase (as per the current sub soil users agreement).
This moves it into a rubber stamp operation, so if for example Total Energy wanted to take baby Tengiz on for itself, secure in the knowledge that its existing 60% share of Dunga plus all of 3AB ( if they have already taken the 15% first drill option, if not 85% ) , plus 99% of BNG which has two producing shallow fields and the only feasible working 6000M shallow drilling rig in the Caspian Sea and 5 x deeps wells drilled
Oil is edging back to retest $100 bopd, maybe much higher ?
Name me a price for all of those riches ?
Clue ...... it is over 30p a share.
If they did prove up Airshagyl as a field covering 58km2, we won't stay independant for long. Also no charges on the BNG deeps as the $3.2m pa covers all production, that is good news.
Rhertig,
I don't think it would be long as the exploratory phase has a few years to go and they've already drilled the A5 appraisals ie A6 and A8 so i believe that they could convert to production and continue appraisals ? just need one to flow. I believe future Airshagyl wells will all be appraisals and not exploratory so can continue to drill as part of the FDP. Just need to get A8 or A5 to flow and then try and come up with remedial solutions for the others. A question worth asking Carver or Shin.
KK you have to plan on local Kazi prices for any oil from the deeps. They are not on export license and that would be multiple years out.
Markets pretty boring, 250k a side online @ c 4.14-4.25p.
Let's hope that 153 is a good well, even if production levels are 250bopd+, still good revenue but the delay is probably putting people on edge as a failure would be a confidence denter. As i said, a buy opportunity on either outcome but hopefully a gusher.
Chances of a Blockbuster with 153/SY/Barge & A8 update together or are they going to release them independently ?
If you want to buy unleveraged its 4.25p at the mo .... the price is going up on every 2 - 3 buys.
Haaaa, actually 4.20p true mid.
4.25p .....
Whilst we patiently wait for news next week. Caspian Sunrise generated $14.3m revenue in 2020 and as of today will be generating $44m based on 1800 bopd at 70:30 / $85/25. Domestic prices have probably risen but we'll find out shortly and crude is being touted at $100 by 2021 close as Winter draws in. Who really knows but if demand continues and Winter conditions are poor, maybe it's possible but never trust analyst forecasts especially Goldman Sucks.
Where could the revenues go in the next 6 months ?
Current production - 1800bopd
SY - 300 bopd
153 - 600 bopd
144/146 - 1200 bopd
A block deep well - 3000bopd+
Other shallows ?
Could easily get to 3900 bopd (1.42m pa) just from shallow production and this could build if horizontal drilling works on the MJF/SY wells. 3900 bopd generates $95m pa , probably higher in the short term and domestic prices be higher too. Add in our first deep well, let's say A8 @ 3000 bopd and turnover will jump to $170m pa. Add in an annual barge rental and our Caspian becomes a $200m pa company within 6 months, even more if 802 and other deeps come online. Doesn't include 3AB possible sale which is likely to generate significant sale revenue if the first well is successful. Who knows, Caspian may retain ownership or there could be a contract sharing negotiation as Caspian will be cash rich.
The company maker is the deep program and as soon as they get the first one, things will get VERY silly indeed. Could be a blue sky picture i'm painting ? 153 is the next step but if it is a producer a la 154 then my shallow numbers will be an under call.
All this potential for 4p !!