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1. They'll need to book chunky profits to sustain a market cap $0.8 billion. They are not doing these acquisitions for $hitz & gigglez.
2. I've posted this a few times .... open up excel ... follow the incentives table all the way down ... after an increase in shares they start to reduce.
We have 1.884 bn plus the new 160m to be awarded.
Going back to the Award of long-term incentives 5/06/2019 the 1st bonus is on a mkt cap of $0.8 billion at a share price of £0.1723.
This gives scope for about 3.6 billion shares to be in circulation @ 17.23p
We currently have ~1.9 billion shares issued.
Lots more scope for "related party transactions".
Is it realistic to think there will be no news until mid March. 5A will have been flowing for 70 days by then. If it has stopped during that period they must release an RNS stating the fact, if it has continued during that whole period then they would have had to advise the market surely.
Even no news until the 13th of FebI would have thought highly unlikely as 5A would have 40 plus days under its belt.
I agree with you Asilad although I think the update Most likely will be mid March.
No meaningful news until after the meeting to discuss the Acquisition of the Caspian Explorer IMO. I expect continued drift towards 8p and very soon after the meeting on the 13th Feb a superb update pushing the SP back up over 12p.
I prefer to live life with a half glass full approach opposed to glass half empty.
Unless they physically say they shut the well due to an issue, i'm assuming it's flowing at a rate of 1500bpd under a 12mm choke being barrelled and flogged at $26.
We should see news this week with an update and whether the well is or is going to go on 90-day flow test and at what choke size.
Ibyb "unless stated otherwise" well they haven't but neither have they stated its on flow test so at the moment its anyones guess whats happening 50:50 IMO
it's no wonder they've been out shopping.
The fact remains, A5 has been flowing for circa 29 days (unless stated otherwise) .
($26 x 1500bpd)x29 = $1,131,000.00 Gross
For ever day it is flowing at the current choke it is producing just shy of $40,000.00 Revenue
He paid $50m dollars for that rig 3 years ago , in a company they own 60% of, he rented it for the first 2 years and grosses $52m dollars in rentals, circa $7m profit per year, and then sells it just as the local exploration market picks up again for $18 - $25m dollars to a company he only owns 44% in.
I'm pretty sure none of us would have made that deal unless we could see that the bigger pie that is being made equated to more money than the 60% of rental income he would get if he left it where it was.
CC - wasnt trying to be negative but I just thought that selling something from one of your companies to another of your companies can be suspicious - but to be honest I didnt 100% understand the strategy here. Having formerly been in sales I am of a mindset whereby you are only judged by results and saying "they almost bought it" never flies.
I just hope what you say is right - but it always seems we are on the cusp of greatness but it is just out of reach !
Mr C .... Blimey M8 , yeah he dumped us with MJF, BNG now 3AB , next a chance of an off shore block .... terrible isn't it.
Some have either sold out and want back in cheaper or else really cant see the plan here ??
They amalgamate everything into one pot, then get it all producing - hey presto it rerates and they sell out and the money flows to the shareholders - ours to the U.K where you will be taxed to bits unless you've planned this well in advance - theirs to the UAE where they won't be taxed ....
I'm not sure all of this is good news. If I am understanding it correctly, we are buying or acquiring assets from another Oriziman owned of controlled company. Doesnt this make a CASP a dumping ground financially to benefit the Orizimans ?
Oh what a web we weave!!
That an acquisition spree would happen was evident in the last AR, and is probably worth a re-read with that in mind before the next one appears.
wrt the RNS, it was an interesting construction advising that they had acquired a boat where the majority owner of the Caspian Explorer is a member of the Oraziman family. The boat was bought by KC Caspian Explorer LLP, so another Oraziman company has sold an asset to Casp.
Then there is a Financial statement re Prosperity Petroleum.
Followed by the terms for acquiring that company.
And then the info that PP owns outright KC Caspian Explorer LLP, which owns a 100 per cent interest in the Caspian Explorer.
Finally, the info Aibek Oraziman owns 60 per cent of the shares of Prosperity Petroleum. So not 'our man' then.
Usually a company would announce the take-over of another company and the terms, and then identify the principal asset. So what else does PP bring with it for just $25M in the unspecified 'subsidiaries'; if the assets were on the book for $53M, has the $53M been impaired and written down in 2019 to arrive at this figure of $25M which itself is at a premium of 27.7 per cent. to the SP market price and which is deemed 'fair and reasonable'?
Of course, neither of these companies are new to dealings with Casp as this from the 2018AR shows:
" a) During December 2017 Eragon Petroleum FZE (a subsidiary of the Company) received a US $1.2 million loan from KC Caspian Explorer (KCCE), a 100% subsidiary of Prosperity Petroleum Ltd (“PPL”) under a loan provided by PPL. PPL is a company controlled by Mr Kuat Oraziman and therefore a related party of the Group. The loan is interest free and matured in December 2018.
During 2018 the Group has partially repaid the loan. On 21 December 2018 the loan was extended till 31 December 2019. On 23 December 2018 Eragon Petroleum FZE has assigned the loan to Mr Oraziman making it interest bearing with the rate of 7%. The loan extension represents a substantial modification of the terms of the existing financial liability and has been accounted for as an extinguishment of the original financial liability and recognition of a new financial liability.
b) During July 2016 Fosco BV, a company controlled by Mr Oraziman, therefore a related party of the Group, provided an on demand loan to BNG LLP in the amount of US$ 0.63 million. The loan is interest bearing with the rate of Libor+ 1%.
c) The total amount borrowed by the Group at 31 December 2018 US$1,009,000 (2017: US$297,000) was payable to Kuat Oraziman and a legal entity controlled by Mr Oraziman, KC Caspian Explorer. Loans are interest free and repayable on demand."
Ignoring the money-go-round element, PPL was controlled by KO at the time of the Casp 2018AR and the KCCE YE $53M but now has moved to the son AO holding 60%, KO was >50% and now zero with mention of the other holders (that I have not yet researched) in the Circular.
Next up is the General Meeting to approve the TO of PP, where, given the Relationship Agreement and the fact that all shareholders can vote, the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Then all the time consuming gov approvals.
Incidently, why has 3AB suddenly popped up for an 'affirmation' vote?
That gets them the boat. How long before they use it to 'buy-in' to an offshore Licence or farm in to a licence and rent out to the JV?
Slowly the game proceeds, and the '20% rule' is further indication that more activity is planned. Will KO convert his loan (again) into Casp shares or will Fosco be next? What else have they, or their mates, got in the cupboard? Beyond KazSmartEnerKon LLP & STK Geo LLP!
Either which way, the £1 party looks to be on hold as the Exec bonus scheme never reaches that threshold and payout is based on MC which they will need to increase to be 4th in Kazakhstan and can be effected by a major acquisition or reverse take over once the ball is rolling with a loan for pipe line and a bolt-on refinery. Permission for the 6B shares is in the Resolutions.
This is not just any oil company, this is.....
I know m8 but the security for me is he requires the London listing as the vehicle that transfers the wealth from in the ground in Kazak into the tax fee zone in the UAE.
If it is taken private and as a private vehicle he tries that then he doesn't own 99% and the Kazak Government (under the sub soil users agreement on tax and % ownership ) can step in and cough gently in his ear whilst holding out their hand for their share....
The concert party have a long term plan and the annoyance that is us lot trading in the background whilst they move their chess pieces around for the coup de grace is a necessary one until they are ready.
Coffee: I refer the honourable gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago.
MLQ ... hence the unequivocal agreement as per last rns when BoatyMcdrillFace was announced not to offer a buy out.
30p ... that won't be the concert party deal - it might be some of the PI's .
Once the brokers are made aware of the CPR and deals on the table, personally expect much more but each to their own to decide.
Read the terms of the contract, everyone is tied in until the Orizimans own less than 20% ...
Is there a plan for a sell off - yes ... looks like it.
Have protectionary ground rules been put in place to protect the smaller holders and make it worth their while to hold if the larger holder sells down - yes 20% and then they can collectively act against Oraziman's interests although Kairat and Raushan holdings need to be accounted for as ex 3 AB and no holding stipulations known .
What is the best solution for the Concert party - same as Oraziman Holdings..
What is the worst outcome for the concert party - an Oraziman led fragmented sale, whereby they sell down to 20% and then it become a free for all - no winners.
Possible outcome in order of profitability to Oraziman's.
1.Concert party holds in full and transfers stocks within themselves. Full production of 49 year BNG ownership and 29 year MJF plus 3 AB and off shore ( unknown at present ).
3. Gradual sell down by Oraziman's from 44 5 to 20 % and then free for all sale by all concert party members.
Have the Oraziman's in the 3 generations they have planned this shown signs of stupidity - i.e a free for all in fighting - imo NO.
if they want to make me an offer I can't refuse - 30p would do it....