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No real progress from deeps in H2 ?I must’ve been st a different AGM. They are drilling 802 and completing A7, possibly starting side-track on A5 later this year or early next.
141 result due and 152 to follow so depends on outcomes of these wells whether it achieves 5k bopd or more.
SY, first well into new structure, no commitment on any more until that’s drilled
Barge, they talked for a while in the barge so my money would be on a charter this year and paid this year.
Divis, I thought October but I believe declaration could be this month, maybe after 141 result. They state they have money allocated for it.
Financial position- better than ever and if they get prices nearer to crude and more for domestic, the CAB builds as do Divis.
They make money from shallows, that will go up in H2 and everything else is upside. Will Divis bring in new punters, we’ll soon find out but it definitely needs them as current PI base won’t move sp north.
141 and divi in short order and we’ll see whether that cuppa handle is ready to be yanked north for a swig.
Uncertain I think 7/8p by year end would be excellent and I would be delighted with that. I would be very relaxed if 6p was the number as I believe that would create realistic floor. Ten pence by next July I think would be top value and then it’s about the deeps. I don’t think they really give a jot about the oil coming out of the deeps but the reserves they potentially release. That in my view is when the business is sold and the sp multiplies. ATB
A divi of 0.5p representing half of net profits with a modest P/E of 10 would normally be enough to get the sp to 10p, but this is CASP. I think that H2 could well deliver a performance of this calibre but the market will not believe it until it is declared in the the financials - possibly as late as June next year.
As others have observed, a boaty contract, a deep flow, or progress on the 3AB front could all shift us up, but saving this I think the market will respond to declared divis in a cautious but positive way. Any dividend will result in some appreciation. If an an initial 0.1p is declared then the market might interpret this as a regular quarterly divi and move us up to 8p, but it is more likely that the market would need the confirmation of a second or third quarterly divi of the same size before gaining confidence.
I think 10p by next June is a likelihood with an interim divi in July 23 above 0.3p a quarter, lifting it further. CASP are unlikely to announce a full plan for divis on a quarterly basis in advance, but if they do will almost certainly renege on any promise they make. 7-8p by the year end would be my feeling IMNOO
Bebold, I also wish/hope the sp will be over 10p by year end however with what we factually know now that seems unlikely. In reality it means the sp needs to more than DOUBLE thats a100% plus rise. What will cause that? 1) we already know that the company has set a ceiling of 5000 barrels a day so by and large that is set in the sp. 2) There will be no significant movement on the deeps this year according to reports from the AGM. 3) The boat has been a liabilty over the last two years despite suggestions to the contrary from Clive. Maybe something positive does happen but I think it wouldnt make a huge impact on the sp ...maybe 20% ??? 4) On the downside a number of issues could go against us but lets ignore those for now. I certainly do not see oil much above $120 and it could be argued that a number closer to $100 would be more realistic. I am not saying you are wrong Im just interested in your assumtions for a plus 10p SP. Thanks.
BB.....I hope you’re right with your double digit prediction by year end. I’ve been adding ever since the 1.5p days and I also don’t intend to sell. I’m a firm believer that eventually Caspian will be bought out. What’s needed is a successful deep well to push sp, and that seems a long way off at present, but I will happily take the divi
I like many will be gutted at the slight drop & down 6k from the recent highs but I believe in the bigger picture & still think CASP will be in double digits by year end, I’m not selling one single share & be adding when I can GLA
I suggested 0.1p but that is purely a guess. The question was asked but the response was that it's already provided for. Mustn't forget that export trade is paid 60 days so export production from June not paid til end of Aug . They did state they already had provision for the divi so i'd say declaration is imminent.
Next 6 months sees completion of 2 deeps and 3 shallows, maybe more on SY if new structure is oil bearing. A5 side-track next, could be end of this year or next and the barge charter ?
Large players will pick up divis and i think shareholders, hopefully sp appreciation comes with it and the continuing story re building financial strength.
Yeah with the deeps seemingly on hold....802 could be a winner but their track record ain’t that good with deeps, I don’t see the sp taking off. And 0.1 per quarter divi isn’t going to lift the sp very much. So we’re now stuck around this sp for a fair time unfortunately. The boat has been talked about, and its potential ever since it was dumped on us, another none starter I think. We know Clive will say one thing and do another, there’s always 2023 I suppose, as 2022 has become another none event for Caspian.
I think the thing as private investors we should realise is that our aims are very different to the major shareholders. They are completely indifferent to the sp, it could be 5p or 10p it’s irrelevant as they have no intention of selling. On the other hand a lot of us would be delighted if it was 10 or 15p as we would be off with a substantial profit. They are in it for the long term and I’m afraid this has become an income share.