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Critical stage in the war again. The Alamo was not a tactical success and the Ukrainians cant afford to let the Russians trap thousand of their best troops in fixed positions that can't be resupplied. If they do it could be a turning point in Russia's favour. They have a battle they can win in the South West and need to play it smart in the Donbass.
All IMHO of course
So what are peoples thoughts on the release of accounts reaction? Have casp been producing at the right rate or deviated to what they have mentioned to the market?
Morning Investeg,
I don’t believe so. The MJF field has been in field development mode for years. Change of strategy last year to use the deep rigs to drill the horizontals successfully and have the work over rigs to revive wells to minimise depletion rates. They have more than 200 personnel in the field and the capability to ramp up the operational effort and I don’t understand why they aren’t doing this. They can manage the production output without need for a new pipeline and all that goes with that, that would be a different scenario if deeps flowed as transportation would become an issue and money to be spent on FDP. We know that MJFP2 numbers are 25mboe so maybe they’re managing the field capability ? Don’t understand why they’re not drilling SY either , they have the capacity to do so. I do believe that they are looking for a couple of quick wins from 141/142 and conserving cash as divi announcement is only a month or so away. Somm and many others inc me believe it’s a cart before horse strategy as why wouldn’t you defer the divi and build production by chucking all resources at the task. KO has done the debt conversion, he’s underwater on that transaction, both from a share value and exchange rate but the first divi will fix that for him and the wider concert party.
We have the opportunity to ask questions at the AGM and as stated, it’s time to get some real clarity on Casper’s strategy and effective delivery.
KK,
Suspect that the company is now at that juncture, from being a small exploration company with various discoveries and limited production, to a company that is moving towards the development and production stage of the oil cycle. They have consolidated their ability to develop the fields and increase production, through acquiring drilling equipment to minimise the need to bring in external suppliers and expertise, however, they are still probably structured as an exploration company from a resource and capacity perspective, and have not yet transitioned to increasing personnel in the drilling and operations areas, which would allow them to develop the asset quicker and drill wells concurrently on the SY and MJF structures. The fact that they are supposedly only working on 2 wells at the present could be explained by this dynamic. If they are looking to increase production, cashflows and their reserves, then expanding their operational capacity and personnel should be a priority, unless of course their priority is to find an external investor to take on this mantle.
Lets see what the 2021 financials disclose as this should tell a fuller story of whether they are now scaling up their operational capacity or not.
We are DEFINITELY on the same page on cart and horse !! As CC stated, they are fulfilling a pledge made BUT this isn't the time and do it when they've built the production. They should be all over SY but let's see what the new IP positions. If it's Walter Mitty stuff, they'll lose credibility so needs to be a factual doc.
It's in a better position now than at anytime historically when sps were 8x todays price. The deep sizzle has been parked but not gone and the 2.55p recent low, was a bargain as is the current price whether your trading or buying to hold.
''I think they're conserving as much as poss to make a sensible Divi payment whilst doing enough operationally to build production numbers.''
Yep, horse chasing the cart.
It's the dumbest decision ever as all spare dosh should be funding the shallows and getting A5/ A7 into production at this time until they have a significant amount of dosh in the bank, they $300,000 bucks in the bank last year, they should have $30, 000,000 in the bank before talking about handing out quarterly dividends. imo.
As I've said many times this dividend is to replace KO's 7% interest payment loss and appease the 65% WCP shareholders not you or me.
I said we would see low 2p range with the expected (months) lull in operational news and we have so back to the 3p+ on June Op's / FY results.
Let's hope the Urals discount isn't to drastic in the coming months as Europe reduces it's reliance on the Russian pipeline network. No doubt it's going to take years before we see the Urals discount removed if ever so it's something we'll have to live with - today CASP have around $30 per barrel to play with re other transport route costs i.e. trucking costs $30 pb?. If an embargo goes ahead on the Russian pipeline then no doubt we will see the share price tank until they can get the bulk of their (3,500 bopd year end?) exported oil re-routed, I doubt we will ever see the full price of oil now.
What specific contingency plans does CC have today - not we have options blah blah.
Hoping for an offer next year.
ODS,
At $80 net say, Casper are very profitable and i'm expecting to see GP in the high 70s range and NP @ 30 points+. I sense that they're not doing as much operational activity as they should be doing especially as they have the cash to do it. I think they're conserving as much as poss to make a sensible Divi payment whilst doing enough operationally to build production numbers. Soon know the facts and i'm looking forward to the new Investor Presentation and one they they have to do is to stick with the timeline and delivery. If they do that, trust and credibility will return.
Still find it crazy that oil from the CPC which is now back to circa 90% Kaz in origin is selling at pariah prices? Just have to suck it up and take solace in the fact that even with the discount we are still selling at a profit. The EU are still buying lots of Russian oil and will continue to do so for some time yet. I guess they are paying for oil and gas in Rubles as they haven't been cut off and the Ruble was at a two year high a few days ago? Our media is only marginally less propaganda driven than the Russian equivalent. When a story goes quiet it's getting to be that they just don't want to tell us what is actually happening. I miss RT. Ok, they went full out propaganda after the invasion but at least we got to see the other side of the story as well as getting a view on what the Russian's are seeing. Free speech? Lots of windfall tax noise this week. Don't think we need to worry too much about that at present
All IMHO .... GLA
It's a messy old world currently and i'm hoping that China aren't going to upset the apple cart further by invading Taiwan knowing that US is distracted. China will play their cards at some juncture imo, jus a matter of timing. China will be looking at Russia's botched job of the Ukraine invasion thus far and biding their time re their plans to profit from other countries poor strategic decisions. They never get involved in humanitarian causes, they stay out of military conflicts, meanwhile they build their economic supremacy and position in the world.
Enough of the happy thoughts on a Friday, c'mon Casper, a little interest today to see us through 3p ready for the p&d boys to make their usual intro pre month end ;)
Mr C, as per my last post, India, Pokistan and China are fuelling the Russian military engine, pardon the pun. Sanctions ? absoflippinlutly !!
Casper benefitting from a pick up in Urals pricing over last week and filling those coffers. Bid slowly strengthening as peeps pick a few up but volumes are minimal. Positive news on 141/142 and the fundamentals v sp are silly but that doesn't necesarily mean the sp appreciates hugely as we need Clive to get the word ou.
Current bids 0-100 @ 2.85p
100-200k @ 2.82p
200-400k @ 2.8p
Buys up to 200k @ full ask. They are slowly taking the price up knowing that there is material news coming and a very good chance we see a little positive flurry of activity.
TT
Well I certainly think the UK Govt should cease any aid to India because of this....
Q2Y22/(QTD) India is now importing around 500,000 barrels a day from Russia
US out, Russia in: Is India forging a new oil-supply chain, so quickly?
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/us-out-russia-in-is-india-forging-a-new-oil-supply-chain-so-quickly-8538081.html
The US might turn around and sanction India , China , Turkey.
Mr C, re revenues increasing. I'm trying to find the article stating that they were with the routes to market but alas i can't locate it. I'd agree that the mechanisms are basic but this article detailed that spend was up by x to P*kistan, India and China, that with the Rouble increasing against the $ was equalling higher revenues than pre war numbers.
KK - we may be talking at cross purposes. What I was saying that I doubted Russian revenues could have actually increased because the mechanisms for moving oil to the Chinese and Indians were still very basic...
Mr.C the Indian government is terrified of getting tossed out. The last time gas prices went up they had riots. Politicians always seem to put keeping their job above doing what is right.
Mr C,
I had comms with Clive last week and he confirmed discounts of c$30 so the Spot prices as per Investing.com data is accurate.
Casper near term target gives is 1m bopa and I’m sure that 1.5m-2m will follow in short order.
We make money from here providing the geopolitical situation gets out of control, that’s our primary risk.
See the sp going on a little run soon and just need Casper to help it along with the right news and commentary.
KK - "The sad fact is that Russian oil revenues are ahead of pre war numbers regardless of sanctions." Not entirely sure how accurate this is. It is not so easy shipping oil to the far East for them and I cant believe all of a sudden that India have plugged the gap. Although India are being super sycophantic about how they dont see anything wrong with the war -- cus they're luvin the cheap gas and oil !
All IMHO of course!
No question that this is not going the way Putin saw it back in Feb. If we forget about the Nazi rhetoric then there are some in Russia who probably saw Ukraine as an opportunity to further their wealth and weaponize the worlds bread basket. I think there was a honest, if misguided view, in Russia that the Ukrainian military would throw in with the Russian's after a couple of days of fighting. If that had happened then Putin may have rolled on into other territories by now so Ukrainian narrative about this being a fight for European values has some substance.
Of course none of that has happened. Russia has launched a mob of well armed bandits on Ukraine. The Kleptocrats had siphoned the money out of their military so they sent their mob into battle with 40 year old trucks, tanks and Lada's with Z's painted on the side. That said Russia have neither lost nor given up on this so it's dangerous for the West to think they can ease off the throttle in terms of support. I would argue it's time for the West to double down.
Surely there are factions within the Russian elite who have fallen out with Putin and don't share his disregard for blowing the world up? Russia have played the threat and appeasement card really well over the years but that stopped working when Putin overplayed the hand. He now follows through on his threats or backs down.
The world needs Russia on side. At some stage they need to be brought back into the global economy and new relationships need to be formed. It's unlikely Putin can deliver that.
The fall of Mariupol today gives Russia a landmark victory to bank and maybe an opportunity to tell the world the Nazi's have been defeated? There has been no real efforts to negotiate a peace from either side over the last few weeks. There may be an opportunity here if they decide to take it? If, as looks likely, that won't happen then this will drag on even further. Russia has a point when it claims the West has a stake in this. They want Russia weakened and Putin out of power but we are not there yet.
For us of course, we want a return to a peaceful Europe but that can't come as a time out with Russia being let off the hook. Sadly I think the journey to peace has a way to run yet.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805
https://astanatimes.com/2022/05/kazakh-german-companies-sign-200-million-in-agreements-at-business-forum-in-nur-sultan/
If this is true re CSTO, then i would say that our Putin is being backed into a corner if he needs to reach out to the CSTO members to present a unified front against NATO. Belarus mobilising on their borders yet again shows that Russia can not fight a ground war on many fronts. He's alienated Finland and Sweden, all the Baltic states, he is a man under pressure so hopefully he has no control re pressing buttons and having the last hurrah.
The sad fact is that Russian oil revenues are ahead of pre war numbers regardless of sanctions. Discounted oil is heading east and the west can wean off it quick enough. The German bi-lateral deal to buy from India is absurd as Russia continue to export in volume.
The second link, and there are many more examples where Kaz getting on with it's business and trading with the world. They won't be dragged into a 'united front' against the west and will be a lot happier when the aggressive neighbour on it's border is muzzled.