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It was also supposed to be a turn key well. Haven't seen the key turn.
Like Caspian give a toss about aim rules. Hopefully it’s the rig owner selling down. We going to need a lot more volume to clear them. Wonder how much they have left?
CC,
Sadly this is Caspian and the fact is, they can bury news in the interims a la BNG appeal.
153 was meant to be a good producer as a vertical well but failed to deliver productively but hopefully the horizontal drill delivers as per 154. It should be a slam dunk but as we know, nothing guaranteed .
Such a pivotal result for confidence and with oil @$74, a good time to be adding another barrel or 700 !
Positive result and SY licence sees us at 2.5k-3k bopd, that’s very material but the most important point is that another HD success proves that MJF NAV us achievable.
Risk and reward, that’s why we play these games.
Somm,
I’d agree with you if the $32m had to paid immediately or the current balance of c $20m. It’s a charge at $250k pm and not a debt that has to be paid. They’re in a better position now than they were when sp was 14p and the oil price average is likely to be comparable or higher than in 2019.
Regardless, we now need a great result on 153 pre the interims.
Next MJF well
Following the success of our first horizontal well, Well 154, we now plan to drill a horizontal side track from a depth approximately 2,200 meters from existing Well 153. The side-track is planned to be approximately 200 meters in length.
We shall use one of our RT50 rigs with the drilling expected to be complete by the end of August 2021.
They've had two weeks, to acid clean, and seee the flow rates ... its a material well result expected and they've given a forward guidance of their expectations so cannot be held over until a general update.
KK,
One of the many reasons for the share price continuing to crash is the fact they were skint due carp dom/exp oil prices and having to find $800K every quarter to pay off the $32 Million license fee, so not really true ''they have no debt'' as they do for 10 years, unless the relinquish the license.
Where's our 153 well update - must be still flow testing? and our 4,500m dusty gusher?
News this week or they're going to include in the Interims, hopefully the former and it's positive. Including in an operational update from 1/7-?/9 would be disappointing so hopefully 2 announcements, both positive.
The sp has crashed from 14p in 2019 to 1.5p as Covid hit, an 86% decline but are we in a better position now than then ? Oil production was only averaging c 1350bopd so why the massive crash. 12% dilution from 2019 but we've added 3AB, some rigs and old Boaty. We are currently at c 1900bopd with SY and hopefully 153 to add so production could be more than 50% higher than 2019 average, the NAV is much higher and balance sheet far healthier. We have no debt and are now self funding for most of the operational targets planned. Key reason for the 86% decline ? probably the loss of hope on the deep program after the A8 result ? maybe the Boaty deal which i know was the last straw for some investors, maybe the poor communication and lack of trust which has damaged credibility and sentiment.
One thing i do know, it's worth far more than current sp providing they continue to build production at MJF and hopefully do the same with the SY structure. Should be no more dilution and hopefully KO's debt for share deal is the signal that things are about to improve. To say that he's committed is an understatement, the KO clan and Concert Party are 'All In' and every 1p increment is worth $1.4m to the Oraziman family !!
Pleas don't disappoint Clive and hopefully those ducks are actually going to be knocked over, at last !
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/business/kazakhstan-oil-tengiz-chevron.amp.html
It’s been going a long time but the scale of the Tengiz project is immense and getting bigger. Their 40 year licence is up in 2023 and will be interested how Tokayev’s more authoritarian rule affects negotiations.
Kaz is an oil rich country and Caspian have to bring in the resources to deliver the black stuff as it currently isn’t working. A blow out is not an option but they need to change their approach. Running out of time on exploration phase and not enough money to pay for the right kit and maybe expertise. Doing it on a shoestring and disappointed that they’ve not been able to attract a farm in partner.
Maybe the persistence with Ablock , especially A5 wil led to that first commercial well and then the confirmation that it’s commercial will attract the right partner ?
Devonian is a long shot, success would be game changing but as we know, finding it is one challenge, flowing it, another.
The Board of Caspian Sunrise is pleased to announce the proposed acquisition of the Caspian Explorer, a drilling vessel capable drilling exploration wells to depths of up to 6,000 meters in extremely shallow water, for a consideration of $25 million to be satisfied by the issue of 160,256,410 new Ordinary shares at a price of 12p per share, a premium of 27.7 per cent to the closing mid-market price on 20 January 2020.
Put that over A8 and A9 and crack on with correct mud weight - if it doesn't flow after that you know you need to save up and pay the professionals or farm it out to them.
KK they've got a decent drill on that boat, think that can cope with 6000 M, could be unbolted used to drill one deep and then reattached in time for the next hire.
They told us this when rationalising its purchase, that the components on board could be salvaged for the land based operations, hence it was such a good deal at that time.
CC,
Yes, much more powerful rigs used on land. Tengiz rigs capable of 30-40k feet and something has to change. Overbalanced drilling isn’t working so surely there’s a way of managing the heat/pressure with lighter fluids but avoiding the disastrous blow out and losing the well. Got to change as currently it’s a painful waste of time and money !
Re 801 they used a mix of Sinopec contract fixed price drilling team with their own casp technical people advising on the mud mix and the technical aspects of how to drill airshagyl, the point of the RNS at that time was to show it was a fixed price not that theyd gone and hired Sinopecs A team and deep drilling rigs ( reason they didnt was $38m in 2008 for one drill hole to 12000 metres ).
KK
Difference to be understood with Sinopec.
Sinopec are a large drilling firm, they have teams and rigs all over the world.
They and other Chinese drilling firms have specialist 12000 metre rigs and team that as far as I know have not ventured outside of China's borders, the contract drillers are sent overseas.
Casp RNS and Clive at AGM advise they believe casp Kazak drilling teams have better skillset to drill our deeps than the Sinopec teams available to them and in order to save on costs and run what is in country in terms of rigs and easily available spares they utilise their own g40 1x G50 and x2 x workover rigs.
Haven’t looked back but thought 801 was Sinopec rig and team.
They have to change something as opposed to continuing to throw millions of hard earned tenge down the drain or well !
They used casps rigs the Ateam in China use own equipment. I.e deeper drilling rigs
KK ... not the A team specialist drilling team that operates in China, these were the contract drillers .. I posted it at the time.
Badge , nothing apart from the MJF drills has made little sense since 2014 apart from Kuat picking up more stock from 2.4 - 3.2p and then transferring that holding offshore to the UAE into his children's names.
As KK has said, we need a clear roadmap from Mr Shin, CLives info is at best unreliable and as he constantly replies " I am not technical " it is therefore pointless in asking him anything.
Cc,
But Sinopec have been involved in 2. 801 first then A block and no success, flipping frustrating.
Badge,
Yep, why would you ?
To us it makes no sense but there must be reasoning behind it. You don’t just throw $5m down a hole for fun.
That’s why I emailed Clive, there must be information we are not privy to. Why would Kuat effectively waste his own money?
Look at the Chinese 12000 metre drills, highly specialist Sinopec crews, big purpose built drills, I've no idea if pressures equal to or in excess of Airshagyl but I'd guess at increased pressure due to the depth, these are drilled and flowing.
Then there is us with the underpowered and over thickened mud ....
MJF and 3AB thats what interests me.
Yep Bull and the communication would be a little clear. The commentary on clearing the dust and checking for oil flows was a cracker...lol. I think they might have noticed 2000bopd flowing or maybe the dust was stopping it sneaking into the well.
I believe that oil at this level is never going to flow unless they use non heavy mud techniques as it's madness to do the same thing repeatedly and expect a different outcome. They'll continue with A5 but yet again, that'll be sidetrack 3 or 4, i've lost account but same thing applies. They know A5 flowed so they will persist and if they did crack that by some miracle then they would probably do the same with A8.
Perhaps they're still flow testing the A8 Well and want to be sure it's flowing at commercial rates, hence the delay in news, unless they want to bury poor news in the next RNS with a successful 153 Well flowing commmercially and the A8 is drilling down to the Devonian (with a brief comment it didn't flow at 4,500m).
Anyway time will tell...........not long to wait.
Last 2 communications below. As usual, plenty of obfuscation and never the clarity we need. Planning to frack but no announcement that they had started. Stated that if fraccing unsuccessful they'd drill on as per Aug RNS but worded really badly. As always, mushroom policy applies.
From June Finals
'Our intention is to fracture and complete the well at the current 4,500 meter depth. In the event this does not result in commercial quantities of oil we plan to drill a further 800 meters to the original Devonian target at a depth of 5,300 meters'
6th Aug RNS
Also in August 2021, we plan to re-commence drilling A8 from the current 4,500 meter depth to the original planned depth of 5,300 meters, targeting a possible structure the Devonian. This drilling work is expected to take approximately two months and will be undertaken using our G40 rig. However, we are first clearing a large quantity of dust from the well before drilling recommences to check for oil flows at the current 4,500 meter depth.
If A8 was flowing, they would be singing and shouting it from the rooftops, no doubt about that in a separate RNS probably in capital letters
KK,
He said they were removing the rubble (dust) to see if the well flowed at 4,500m, this was already fracked not sure if they re-fracked the well at that depth, then drilling down to the Devonian.
If it does flow then thats anotther production zone that could be mingled with the Devonian if there's oil there too.
Yeah, would seem a combined Op's/ Fin RNS next week.
Hopefully it includes a successful flow test on both wells.