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KK, no.
I'll look at the statement tomorrow (an assumption on my part: still not seen the AGM Circular on the website) and see where the spin is now!
I know the CAB is important for a divi, but imo the CAB number has been manufactured by selective borrowing, opportunistic purchases and timely debt repayments, and as others have said, it could now be increasing rapidly.
But it might not ;-)
Clarity and not doublespeak is needed. Sure, it's a risk business and statements are forward looking so caveat emptor, and dyor should not have to rely on Bico!
We have not heard about the decline rates in the wells, just sporadic flowrates. We know workovers are needed, but what is the trend for the horizontals?
I note particularly the insertion of the word capacity in recent docs.
4000bopd production capacity is not 4000bopd revenue!
The debacle with 3AB, still no renewal, no payment of dues, and no reclaim of 2/3 of the indemnities starts to look like a quick rinse through of RO's assets. How can the new partner be responsible for the next work, when licence terms are unknown? It's been written off the books, how long before it follows Beibars?
enjoy your pret.
SP going to ping. Can sell 550 @ 4.5p, can't buy a bean.
Good note JS. Are you going to the AGM ?
rocket, I'm with BigTC on the drink front. We'd all like to see 40p just don't hold your breath!
Another enigmatic RNS...
KK comments on his need to understand "the $9m CAPEX entries especially cars and other."
CC replied with "see Note 13"[Property, plant and equipment] with headline numbers and text from Note 21 [Provisions and contingencies].
The Property, plant and equipment Table shows the changes for 'Proved oil and gas assets', 'Motor Vehicles' and 'Other'. But as I could not see where the content mentioned in Note 21 appeared, I looked back to the H1 Report, expecting that the capitalised sum would be more evident. (It's always a tad disconcerting when the largest entry is in the column titled 'other')
However, there were NO Additions to the PP&E in the 1/2 year to June, which did not accord with the earlier narrative of $1.5m increase.
"Plant, property and equipment
The value of plant property and equipment increased to approximately $51.5 million (2020: $50.0 million)."
Closer examination shows that the increase was over the same period last year, not on the ongoing status at Jan 1st 2021 as inherited from the end of 2020, which was $52.8 million. Also, the 'Disposal' for Motor Vehicles of (14) does not carry over to the year end report at all: 'Unaudited' covers that then.
wrt the CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT
"We are producing record amounts of oil and selling it at prices greater than at any time since we commenced production. Debt has been paid down or converted to equity and we expect to declare our first dividend later this year. "
Headline bullet point "Aggregate production for 2021 was 533,857 barrels (2020: 545,667) a decrease of approximately 2.2%"
20 Short-term borrowings
2020 $5.6 million
2021 $6.425 million (of which $6.2m was converted to equity in 2022)
Advances received (deferred revenue) increased to $3,925m from $2,986m.
This includes the "significant amount of prepayments from the oil traders in relation to
increasing production on the BNG oil field".
cf. the August 2021 update "We are now close to repaying all the historic local oil trader funding provided with respect for domestic sales. Once done we expect a greater share of our total production to be eligible for international rather than domestic sales." and
now "FINANCIAL REVIEW OF THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2021 (CONTINUED)
· The Group continues to forward sell its domestic production and receive advances from oil traders with $1.8m currently advanced and the continued availability of such arrangements is important to working capital."
"International vs Domestic sales
The proportion of oil sold on the international market in 2021 was similar to that in 2020 as the export status at South Yelemes was not received until late December 2021."
and in 2020
"the domestic price at which we are obliged to sell 40-45% of oil produced",
which is well down on the 25/75 split many thought.
Further clarity will be provided at the AGM, Rodney...
In, 6 or 7k, I hope that’s from a couple of deeps or you’re straight to he top of the leaderboard.
I think we'd need 6 or 7k bopd for that Rocky
Rocketeer you're awesome. If you were correct I would be retired and living in Thailand with my Thai wife but alas I think you're having a laugh. I will buy you a beer if you're correct.
2 days to go!!
40P soon…. So you better buy now
From RNS 22 June 2022
'Company will now cancel its share premium and deferred shares, which will create positive distributable reserves'
If I could attend the AGM, I would ask 'How much...?'
CC,
Thanks for the cars explanation . I understand the $32.5m capitalisation a couple of years ago but this doesn't explain the additions in 2021 ($6.9m excluding the $2m for off roaders/lorries)
Somm, You must've joined the Twatter gang, you're in ramptastic mode, should be second place to CC ! I may as well join you ;)
The current facts -;
Production 4000bopd
Gross Crude Price average $115
Urals spot price $90 average
Export/Domestic ratio 65:35
Export Gross $85
Domestic $25+ (now)
Turnover for H2 will be $45m+ but likely to be $55m+ if 141 adds 1k and that's without adding in anything else from SY or other MJF drilling. They've been paying down the arrears, debts that have built up since covid and costs in selling expenses have gone up as with most industries.
They can't pay a meaningful divi til Sept/Oct earliest but i wasn't expecting one til October anyway and they'll have the opportunity to build significant cash from July-Oct especially if 141 comes up trumps. Hopefully KEBCO plays a part in higher revenues too.
The barge also a factor and much that it's in 'white elephant' mode currently, the last paragraph from the Chairman's statement suggests charter over sale but nice to have either !
'Even at current prices and despite the Urals Oil discount the company is doing well, however, as noted above, we do not expect the current discount for Urals Oil to apply to our oil for much longer. A drilling charter for the Caspian Explorer in 2023 would also make a material difference to the Group's trading. However, the greatest impact on the value of our Company would be success at our BNG deep structures.'
All i know is that this will be a $100m+ revenue company going forward and their cost base will reduce after A7 and 802 completion. What's not to like and nice to see a little bottom feeding at close of play, hopefully this continues to AGM and beyond and a nice little positive 141 update on Thursday am would be most welcome.
I'm going on Thursday and will probably be there early. Somebody said there's a Pret across the road, i'' be in there wearing a carnation :)
Raving buy.
KK - You said " need to understand the $9m CAPEX entries especially cars and other. "
See Note 13.
Net book value at:
01 January 2020
43,188
17
8,121
51,326
31 December 2020
42,332
9
10,504
52,845
31 December 2021
42,158
1,557
13,419
57,134 - look at it on the RNS and note the additions.
The subsoil use contract held by BNG Ltd for the Yelemes field stipulates that it must make a payment to the Kazakhstan Government upon award of a production contract after commercial feasibility. The Kazakhstan Government has assessed the amount payable as a total of US$32.5m. The sum is paid on a quarterly basis from 1 July 2019 in equal instalments and the final payment is due to be paid on 1 April 2029. The payments have been discounted to their net present value. This discounted value has been capitalised as Property, plant and equipment (note 13) and will be amortised over the productive period. Any changes in estimated payments and discount rate are dealt with prospectively and result in a corresponding adjustment to property plant and equipment.
I've noticed on the Tender websites and vehicle parts they buy ( they run a fleet of off roaders for staff transport, and the lorries they bought with rig purchases ) are described as car parts by the translation service.
Another day another $. What does today hold in store for Casper investors.
I have read the accounts, I can see where money has gone, clearing debts, increased selling expenses but need to understand the $9m CAPEX entries especially cars and other. The impairment on 3AB turned a $7m profit to a$5.5m loss . They didn’t sugar coat the accounts, they could’ve done that and I expected to see a far more upbeat Chairman’s statement . As we know, the accounts are 6 months ago and a lot has changed since then but we have to get a handle on costs to see the real ROI from the production effort.
H2 should be fantastic financially but they will have increased costs with 802/A7 but at 4K bopd, probably more with the additional MJF/SY wells. they could exceed 1m barrels in next 6 months. Will the oil discount reduce, probably and revenues will be considerable inland who knows re the other assets ie barge, 3AB and the deeps. 802 they’re best chance, not long to find out, also the interims will be out in 3 months.
Loads of upside but I want to get an understanding of budget forecasts and the ROI.
Divi 1 - 3p its written in the stars and hinted at by Clive in the RNS....
Spudded South Yelemes in March, as tracked down by the Bico Tenders for accommodation and storage ( Brasi )
141 is coming online soon, South Yelemes well will be ready by July looking at the time schedules quoted and spud start date, 152 thereafter, 802 by year end.
"Horizontal drilling has been used to improve the production of existing wells and will in the coming months be used in new wells at both the MJF structure and at South Yelemes, where we believe significant volumes of oil may lie at depths as shallow as 2,500 meters.
Shallow structures
All of the oil produced in 2021 was from the MJF structure. The production capacity at the MJF structure has increased to 3,750 bopd, with seven wells producing and a further two wells planned before the year end, including Well 141 which is due to re-enter production shortly following a horizontal drilling workover."
They have forward paid drilling costs, repaid all of the historic debts to outsiders and converted Directors debts into equity.
Already forward paid one third of the total BNG historic costs.
Everything is looking decent from here on in.
Badge,
No 3p annual divis and a TRILLION pound company.....lol
I’ve sent several questions off to see if they can be answered pre AGM. Aas you say, many assets that could break us out of this bleeding sp range and maybe the Investor Presentation sheds some light on plans and timeline. Could get 141 result pre AGM ? take us to 5kbopd. Even if they did nothing extra they’d be producing 700k +bopd v 305 for H2 21. 5k bopd takes us to 900k+. Another shallow and SY plus the rest. I just want to get a handle on the costs I don’t understand eg CAPEX.
Totally agree we knew the period for accounts wasn’t great . It’s since January . The $1million cash was the bit that surprised me but I imagine all drills costs etc accounted for so running forward it’s just money coming in now with now further deep drills needing drilled . If they can up capacity and start grinding towards 10,000 bopd it’s game on
I’ve got to say this was pretty much what I expected. Apart from the only $1m in bank.
Hype had taken over the last few weeks. I’d have been amazed if some of the numbers being bandied about had come to fruition.
This is all historical, as long as oil stays in its current range they can’t fail to make money.
There are the bonanza events still waiting. A boat charter/ sale or 3Ab getting regulatory approval, would add tens of millions to our Mcap. As KK has said there are questions that need answering, Fortunately the agm is near
I added this afternoon, not the best update but nothing horrendous. Probably good to have got expectations in check.
At current international prices and with current levels of production the income from export sales is sufficient to cover all day-to-day Group operations; and G&A costs; the costs of the two new deep wells A7 & 802; and to fund planned dividend payments.
In the event any of the six deep wells drilled or being drilled start to produce oil in commercial quantities the associated revenues should transform the Group's cash flows. The same would be the case in the event the Caspian Explorer is chartered for drilling projects at market rates.
We have worked to create sufficient distributable reserves to allow dividends to be paid. This required a formal Capital Reduction to cancel the share premium account and the deferred shares to boost distributable reserves. The Capital Reduction was approved by shareholders in April 2022 and approved by the UK High Court in June 2022.