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4.27p paid there.
So take out $100m for FDP and its circa 9 cents then.
Just checked: 2.25bn shares or to be precise 2,250,501,560 as at July last year
I think there are now 2.264b shares. Anyway dividing $200m by 2.1b at current exchange rates gives 7.5p
Whatever the answer, it is considerably more than the current share value. My view is three and a half times the value plus any residual value of the remaing assets (see previous post).
Why isn't the share booming? Firstly the valuation is itself an estimate, secondly the sale is in early stages, and thirdly shareholders have been disappointed by previous RNSs
Take out $100m for the field development plan, divide remiaing $200m by 2.1b shares
I make it 10.5p for $300m. Did you do the dollar pound conversion Bull? The number of shares is also higher than it once was.
That would be 12p just on the shallows alone
Good point re: Galaxy
So if $300m
Take $100 towards field development plan.
$200m dividend of which Kuat gets half and we get 9 cents gross?
So fully developed deeps and a divi?
Galaz oil field was sold by Roxi petroleum (now CASP) for $100m with very little production. I would expect $200-300m for the shallows.
AIM isn't the worry.
You can do what you want.
Your issues are kazakhstans sub soil users agreement.
Need each oil field on separate, clearly identifiable licences.
Delineated by topographical size and then depth.
Example 3ab vs Dunga where Dunga owns the oil down to 2500m and thereafter 3ab own it.
Are there different AIM rules for putting the whole company up for sale, rather than the simpler "oh we looking to sell just one of the assets"?
Jup4it ...
Lets say that Kuat instigated the dividend to put his 50% into his UAE Bank Accounts.
If he sells the shallows for $100m pays 10% tax and takes his 50% as a divi to the UAE that gives a 60 year old nan $45m.
That covers a heck of a lot of green fees doesn't it?
If 801,802 and 803care pumping the Co won't even miss it ...
If CASP manage to get any where near $200m-$300m for the two shallow structures they will have enough to start the BNG FDP and build an oil pipeline to boot.
I keep thinking with that much available funding the BNG deep structures will look like Swiss Cheese.
Smile, say cheese...😁
The significant shareholder is the Oraziman family. IMO to understand where this is going you have to put yourself in their shoes. Previous decisions, acquisitions(right or wrong), divis, etc have all been the decision of the significant shareholder. Maybe, they just want an exit strategy.
the board has in recent months entered into a number of discussions with potential buyers concerning the bng shallow mjf and south yelemes structures at indicative prices potentially significantly greater than its current carrying value.
note buyer(s).
note price(s).
so a possible bidding war for each of the two shallow structure.
an 'indicative' price for each structure seems to have been aired? atm i'd say the mjf structure will gain the higher bid price - though the sy structures recent dolomite discovery could prove substantial in adding to reserves for this structure and therefore a higher bid price - from initial talks in the last few months.
the ''current carrying value'' is not the mc.
the carrying value will be based on the current shallow 1p-2p reserves and potential future reserves increases of each shallow structure which share 15m 1p and 25m 2p reserves - not sure how these reserves are split, which will lead to different price offers per structure.
will casp get a premium offer for the shallows? yes with multiple interested parties bidding, imo.
hopefully there's no discount of their net oil revenue per barrel of oil or % of the current share price over say 5 days etc..
will casp do a new cpr increasing reserves with the new sy dolomite oil to uplift the reserves?
i've said before the data room door will be being knocked on or is that banged on ;-)
full value estimate - *** packet value:
15m 1p reserves at $33 gross pboo/ $15 net? = 17p / 8p per share accordingly - it's been know for companies to pay full value with multiple parties involved and the need for building reserves - plus casp have 25m of 2p reserves at $? pboo = ? to factor in + potential.
there are a lot of international majors in the area and the chinese in particular do like to make a good offer ;- )
Kheldar,
Investors can ignore the rest of the RNS, just this part is a multibagging
company maker ... reading the last two RNS
Farm in for well 802 and sell part of the golden goose or get it licensed and sell the shallows - No brainer!
"The company believes that based on its work and technical data, it can apply for a licence upgrade for its deep structures (to make them commercial production licences). "
WH Ireland have the shallow structures valued at 7.9p that estimate is without the newly flowing Dolomite structure.
They have 15m P1 barrels and 25m P2 barrels - this will have increased with new wells Dolomite oil.
We're probably looking 6p-9p for the sale of the shallow structures, imo.
A5 Deep Well is about to spud at long last but it doesn't look like the A7 Deep Well will spud until after the A5 Deep Well results?
The 803 Deep Well is still drilling at a glacial pace.
806 Shallow Well next changed from 807.
A full BNG deep license approved possibly as early as Q4 after 803 Deep Well has completed (September?) along with renewed Block 8 license in Q3-4.
The 155 Shallow Well (currently at 1,000m) will no doubt have to be completed before any shallow offers are in, imo.
CE confirmed on track.
All in all a damp squib apart from A5 Deep Well about to spud/ Corp news.
Hi all, great to see Casp showing a bit of life.
Rns: The Board has in recent months entered into a number of discussions with potential buyers concerning the BNG shallow structures (excluding the BNG deep structures Airshagyl & Yelemes Deep) at indicative prices potentially significantly greater than its current carrying value.
I looked at 2021 and 2022 annual accounts to understand the carrying value. In 2021 accounts it states $104m for proven and unproven oil. The 2022 accounts only show the unproven oil figure of ~$43m.
As per the rns it says significantly higher than current indicative value. I guess it all depends on the meaning of significant. You would like to think it’s at least 50% more.
So by my calculations if it’s only for proven oil then a minimum of $75m.
If for proven and unproven then it’s a minimum of at least $150m.
Much bigger numbers if significant means more than 50%.
Happy to be corrected.
It would be crazy to sell BNG unless they have either been successful at B8 or the deeps. Some interesting months coming up methinks.
Atb
Edit: 2.7m sells v 3.4m buys. Investors adding, newbies getting involved after seeing 30 points plus on the risers board, stale bulls exiting and traders taking a profit. Great to see sp bounce off the lows, the big question, whereto next ?
This is a traders dream, especially for those who loaded up in the early 2s and disposed a few today. As far as I can see there’s c 2.65m sells and 2.2m buys yet we’re up 25%, a great result in my book.
As Wolfi stated, this corporate activity was highlighted with the latest IP that came out of the blue last October.
This RNS is contradictory or should I say a little confusing as with many Casper news releases.
So what is actually going on ? Firstly, shallows up for sale , part or whole for the right price they state the carrying price so what is that ? If MJF continued to flow at these levels and current net prices for the remaining licence period it would generate c $350m net. Whatever the sale price, they state that It would provide funding for NEW development assets so by that I assume they’re buying something else. I suspect that this is Block 8, if so it’s likely that we’re about to get positive news on that front following licence approval.
If they sell MJF/SY then only prod in group is 100bood from 2 existing B8 wells. They talk about selling oil to the export marketplace if monthly prod exceeds 70000 bopd so without MJF, where is that coming from ?
They plan to gain the full production licence on the BNG deeps. That makes the asset saleable but the true value is only realised when they flow one in each structure. Any MJF proceeds will attract CGT so surely there has to be a purchase in play so yet again this could be Block 8 in its entirity or something else ?
They have their drilling assets in their services business which could be used to farm in to other projects. They have the CE charter in play with other parties interested in utilising in offshore projects. That makes sense as Tokayev is pushing offshore projects to international players.
KO is not getting younger and I don’t believe his son or Shin will be taking charge and the end game here has always been exit. Proving up the deep assets on BNG/B8 is where they make the big bucks. Sell the company is the most tax efficient exit v breaking it up and selling the individual parts.
A5 has been the most exciting deep drilled to date so returning to that whilst simultaneously drilling 803 on NY which is meant to be the highest COS, means that they could prove up both structures this year.
Block 8 status ? why continue if it’s a duffer. One could argue that KO & Bolthazan will lose the asset by not meeting the licence commitments so they had to drill the 2 new wells. Who knows but it won’t be too long before we know the true position there.
2024 won’t be a boring year for investors as there’s plenty happening that will continue punter speculation. Is it the end game this year or next for Casper ? Corporate interest in the shallows would probably lead to interest in acquiring the whole company ? Answers on a postcard :)
Gwm, the boat is about to be leased out later this year. The RNS sugests they are in early stage negotiations on other boat related projects, probably leases.
The recent posts from LTHs seem quite clear to me, but as a new shareholder there is quite a lot of history to catch up on. Go back a few days for long lists of the status of all wells and licence areas.
Thanks for the tax advice, but all my shares are in an ISA
Are we still hoping for 70p best case within 2 yrs,
Im finding it hard to understand the recent posts, please think of newbies joining the train ride and write clearly, thankyou.
I thought caspian had decided to nuse the boat themselves and give up attempting to lease to other companies, is that wrong.?
nb If a special div was declared if they taylor it as dividend you will pay top up to top rate tax, if taylored for capital return much less. If its not clear you will have to go to tribunal with hmrc.
Very bullish note from WH Ireland this morning. Ends with:
"The current year will be significant for many of the company's growth businesses as they establish their first significant commercial successes. It is an exciting time for Caspian Sunrise and we see significant scope for positive developments in the near-term and into 2024 for the company."
Missed off the Million!!!!!!
Will they sell the shallows for?, $100, has to be in the ballpark, imo