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depends which RNS we are meant to use to calculate the likely results date, they really are useless with details, their Nomad isn't up too much either, WH Ireland, Nominated Adviser & Broker.
Would expect Mr Shin to have smartened up on these RNS and provided Clive with the correct date to report, or this guy who is mentioned in every RNS as a Qualified person:
Mr. Asslybek Umbetov, a member Association of Petroleum Engineers, has reviewed and approved the technical disclosures in this announcement.
Contradictions in RNS
6 or 8 wells producing ? ( new well +1 noted )
Spud date for well 154, 8th or 26th April ?
8th April 2021:
Note the slightly shorter drill depth quoted of 2400 for well 153 than the 2548 for well 154, but as per their contradictions in other data and the Clive 'isn't technical' caveat who knows ?
The Board is also pleased to report a new shallow well, 154, has been spudded on the MJF structure with a planned Total Depth of 2,200 meters. The well is expected to take 2 months to drill and if successful should be able to produce towards the end of Q2 2021. Additionally, management are considering the use of horizontal drilling on the MJF structure to further increase production.
21st September 2021:
Well 154, which was spudded on 26th April 2021, and completed in July 2021 with a Total Depth of 2,548 meters. This was the first of our wells to utilise horizontal drilling techniques, with the final 200 meters of the well drilled horizontally within the reservoir unit.
21st Sept 2021:
At 30 June 2021, there were 9 wells drilled on the structure of which 6 were producing. The key development during the period was at Well 154, which was spudded on 26th April 2021, and completed in July 2021 with a Total Depth of 2,548 meters. This was the first of our wells to utilise horizontal drilling techniques, with the final 200 meters of the well drilled horizontally within the reservoir unit.
We are using the same horizontal drilling technique at Well 153 and at the date of this report have re-drilled approximately 2,200 meters of the total planned of 2,400. The final 200 meters will be drilled horizontally into the reservoir unit.
6th Aug 2021:
Production from the BNG Contract Area is currently running at the rate of 1,950 bopd, with 100% coming from 8 wells on the MJF structure. Included in this production is a contribution from New Well 154 of approximately 700 bopd.
A5 - Note they also say in RNS there is a shortage of drilling equip in country as the reason for further workover rig purchase and have prev advised due to shortage of drill pipes they needed to perform one well at a time and have taken them on and off of A5 on prev occasions so not including A5 in the expected schedule of works for 2021..
At Deep Well A5 we plan to drill a new side-track at this well from a depth of 3,850 meters to 4,500 meters commencing in October 2021, provi
If they never wanted to pay a dividend why set up the Dubai tax vehicle ? Offer to scrap it when it looked like they would need Government assistance/mercy then reinstated it once oil recovered and they knew they could save and profit from it.
It is there IF they can pull off another oil field sale this time at 3AB ( last one circa $100m ) deeps flowing at 66% international prices or massive infill shallow well programme.
If you look at the 10 year Roxi / Casp chart it has bounced between the channels from 2.4p to 10p and 14p, once to 24+p, been a great share : )
A Dividend framework and payment will move the lower channel upwards thereby raising the top channel as well so we will see higher lows and higher highs.
Of course a dividend framework on its own will not do this, it will require a physical payment for the market to see and this requires either a big increase in oil production, a sale of 3AB for circa $100m + sale of the boat or farm in to an offshore drill etc.
The weight of newsflow that is coming says to me buy as many ass you can hold until 2022 ( not leveraged as until news 2.4p or below is everpresent ) and sit tight and wait.
1. Reaction to nearly going bust last year and not having any cash reserves taken from the business for the concert party.
2.Increases share price and reduces volatility by attracting longer term holders as opposed to the trading community on the London AIM market, which has been mentioned in a negative light by Clive at AGM's and in convos to others.
3.Gets the Company ready to move onto AIM 50 or one of the 'higher' listed markets.
4.Utilises the tax breaks for the Kuat children's tax vehicle in Dubai.
5.Getting the business to the point where it is self sustaining and no longer requires Kuat to support it and luckily for KUAT leaves him owning 46% of whatever they have got.
That was a little cutting MrC and not in the arboreal sense.
Only 2 factors oil volume and crude price. Everything else is a sideshow. Yes the barge gives great liquidity as would 3AB if sold, the so would increase significantly but it’s oil production at the best price that’s going to give us the multi-bagging result. Pointless having crude at $30, the price is critical.
We don’t know what SY /MJF will produce but if they can do HDs on both acreages, maybe 5k bopd ? 1.825 billion barrels pa @ $75/25 on a 70/30 split generates significant annual revenue but it’s the deeps that give us the huge returns.
If they rent the barge successfully maybe they have options on 3AB re their 85% as opposed to selling it. The barge cash gives them options and if much prefer that our KO takes his $6m from that as opposed to diluting shareholders !
We don’t know what’s in the depths, neither did the big players when they discovered the Tengiz, Kashagan and Koralev. Could be billions or non commercial but with healthy shallow production and barge rental, every investor will make healthy returns from here. Those who loaded up at the lows are already in clover .
$78.17 for crude and hopefully it breaks the $80 to accompany some more oil production. Already 140% up from low so already a handsome return but many are waiting for the EUREKA moment and maybe A8 is the one, who knows. Let’s get 153 flowing and a little barge deal that will help a tad with liquidity !!
'Casp are using their own crews and have limited access to in country equipment as per repeated casp RNS'.
Add increased cost to that and it's an answer.
Imo they are drilling down to see whats there, if its baby Tengiz in play and Hydrocarbons are found at 5200 then withdrawing and maybe importing more specialist deep well horizontal equipment is on the cards, quicker, cheaper vertical first of all to see if its worth it.
Why can't they drill horizontally at say 5,000m to 5,300m in the Devonian for a few hundred meters instead of a vertical well, is it because the computer on the drillhead might get damaged with the heat/ pressure - with a longer period of time drilling at that depth?